1st round bye + >50% public support = 20%cover rate
in regular season, teams coming off a bye cover 53.1%, if favored, it jumps to 58.1%. In the playoffs (since 2003) it flips. Thought is, the points they give up are too much. the number drops to 34%, 16-30. If they receive >50% of the bets the number drops to 20%, 4-16.
Both fans and analysts believe bye weeks are crucial for postseason success. By earning a top-two seed, players are able to rest and recuperate, while coaches have more time to study film and develop a strong game plan.
During the regular season, teams coming off a bye week have offered a clear-cut edge for bettors. Since 2003, teams have gone 217-192 ATS (53.1 percent) when they have at least 13 days between games. That record improves to 125-90 ATS (58.1 percent) when we highlight favorites coming off a bye week.
These well-rested teams have clearly offered value during the regular season but, as we mentioned last week, playoff betting strategies are an entirely different beast.
At Sports Insights, we love going against the grain, espousing unpopular viewpoints. Our strategies uncover value by challenging public perception, and taking advantage of artificially inflated lines. Since the narrative dictates a substantial benefit to earning a first-round bye, we hypothesized the exact opposite would be true, and there would be value betting against top-two seeds during the divisional round.
Teams that earned a first-round bye have been favored in more than 80 percent of their games during the divisional round. We believed these teams would be vastly overvalued -- particularly when they were receiving overwhelming public support.
Using our Bet Labs data analysis software, we found favorites coming off a first-round bye have gone just 16-30 against the spread (34.8 percent) in the divisional round. When that team is receiving more than 50 percent of spread bets, the record plummets to 4-16 against the spread (20 percent).
With such a woeful record, this system offers the perfect "fade" opportunity, meaning we will bet against teams fitting these criteria. Specifically, we will focus on underdogs who played in the wild-card round when they face off against a rested team following their bye week.
in regular season, teams coming off a bye cover 53.1%, if favored, it jumps to 58.1%. In the playoffs (since 2003) it flips. Thought is, the points they give up are too much. the number drops to 34%, 16-30. If they receive >50% of the bets the number drops to 20%, 4-16.
Both fans and analysts believe bye weeks are crucial for postseason success. By earning a top-two seed, players are able to rest and recuperate, while coaches have more time to study film and develop a strong game plan.
During the regular season, teams coming off a bye week have offered a clear-cut edge for bettors. Since 2003, teams have gone 217-192 ATS (53.1 percent) when they have at least 13 days between games. That record improves to 125-90 ATS (58.1 percent) when we highlight favorites coming off a bye week.
These well-rested teams have clearly offered value during the regular season but, as we mentioned last week, playoff betting strategies are an entirely different beast.
At Sports Insights, we love going against the grain, espousing unpopular viewpoints. Our strategies uncover value by challenging public perception, and taking advantage of artificially inflated lines. Since the narrative dictates a substantial benefit to earning a first-round bye, we hypothesized the exact opposite would be true, and there would be value betting against top-two seeds during the divisional round.
Teams that earned a first-round bye have been favored in more than 80 percent of their games during the divisional round. We believed these teams would be vastly overvalued -- particularly when they were receiving overwhelming public support.
Using our Bet Labs data analysis software, we found favorites coming off a first-round bye have gone just 16-30 against the spread (34.8 percent) in the divisional round. When that team is receiving more than 50 percent of spread bets, the record plummets to 4-16 against the spread (20 percent).
With such a woeful record, this system offers the perfect "fade" opportunity, meaning we will bet against teams fitting these criteria. Specifically, we will focus on underdogs who played in the wild-card round when they face off against a rested team following their bye week.
| Opponent Coming off Bye Week | 30-18 (62.5%) |
| Underdog, Opponent Coming off Bye Week | 30-16 (65.2%) |
| 'Dog <50% of spread bets, Opp. Coming off Bye | 16-4 (80.0%) |
| * Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records. |
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