Week 4 - Chalk?

[2daBank]

See, this is why I usually don't make bets on Tuesday. I'm glad I didn't in this case. I've now talked myself off of the Broncos, something about that game doesn't feel right. I'm also holding off on Indy, but that's strictly due to Luck's injury. I might jump back on this one, but not until Sunday morning.

Still feeling good about Atlanta, Arizona, and Cincy.

Arizona beat the Rams twice last year with Drew Stanton doing the heavy lifting. This Rams team has trouble scoring against the Arizona defense. I don't expect that to change.

Cincy, well Banker covered that pretty thoroughly a few posts back. Again, Cincy at home is +$ in the long term. Even if this doesn't hit, I can live with the pick.

Atlanta feels great to me. I'm just not seeing the Texans being competitive here. Not with Mallett, and especially not with a slightly injured Mallett. That team cannot keep up with Atlanta if they put any points on the board. 17 points could be enough for Atlanta to cover here. I feel like the Falcons haven't gotten much credit for the 3-0 start, people might not be taking them seriously. I expect them to put the league on notice this weekend.

you know i love atl and have since the beginning but like i mentioned above i think hou can bother them with physical play and keep this score down in the low 20s with their run game and dline doing most the heavy lifting. obviously if it turns into ryan vs mallet it no contest. atl being a team ive watched a ton over the years and the team i expected to win the south this year ill tell ya you can still hurt this team being physical, while i take nothing away from their wins as ive profited off them all the reason they been a easy bet aside from not getting respect the nfc east teams they have faced been soft, philly is sideline to sideline fluff, nyg oline overpaid and dline just not good, dal is dal and while play solid d they overachievers with no real pass rushers till hardy comes back and lets not forget the oline and randle were abusing atl until garrett decided to stop giving him touches for some reason.

if foster plays i think hou a great bet, he will be a load for this d and can easily help control clock and dictate the score being more manageable. without him id still lean the same way but prob pass, hou will still have the volume of attempts and i dont think will get away from that. even if they not having success the dline ought to give them the ability to keep trying as i think this the worst matchup a improved but not exceptionally talented atl oline could face. dont get me wrong that group is much improved and has played very well but lets be real none of the 1st 3 opponents had much to offer far as one on one dline talent and the young shanny calling plays knew all these teams pretty well which something i dont think was talked about but pretty obvious in his scheme and play calling. just saying id be vary wary here, i made line same and understand why it here but in reality i see this as a styles makes fights type of deal and the matchup not good for the superior team imo..

[JayDr3am]

i like the points in both. with minny a little more cause i actually like them as a team where i dont exactly trust hou.

great running wins football games. everybody knows that.. you saw it Thursday with forsett running 140+ yards. disreguard scobee and the kicks he ****** lol, ravens got their running game goin which opened up the field and won them the game. and when I look at minnesota, I feel teddy wont try and do too much, and let Peterson get some solid carries in givin them a real shot and keepin it close.

[2daBank]

great running wins football games. everybody knows that.. you saw it Thursday with forsett running 140+ yards. disreguard scobee and the kicks he ****** lol, ravens got their running game goin which opened up the field and won them the game. and when I look at minnesota, I feel teddy wont try and do too much, and let Peterson get some solid carries in givin them a real shot and keepin it close.

i actually think a physical run game is exactly what you wanna do vs donks d anyways so while i have tons of respect for their d (not so much pizza boy or a offense that doesnt fit him) they really havnt seen much of this and are primary a speed up field and sideline to sideline unit if you ask me. thus far they played balty who as mentioned new oc just figured out yesterday to run the ball, kc who dominated them on the ground and had them beat, and a sorry det team who doesnt believe in anything other than lining up their sorry qb in shotgun and playing right into donks hands. combined 1-8 (2 after yesterdays gift to bal) for teams donks have barely skated by, minny best team they have faced and sports the kind of offense this d not gonna enjoy facing. i actually like viks chances of winning and really feel this line inflated. how donks laying 7 to minny while cincy laying 4 to kc is beyond me? i think those lines are ass backwards.

[JayDr3am]

i actually think a physical run game is exactly what you wanna do vs donks d anyways so while i have tons of respect for their d (not so much pizza boy or a offense that doesnt fit him) they really havnt seen much of this and are primary a speed up field and sideline to sideline unit if you ask me. thus far they played balty who as mentioned new oc just figured out yesterday to run the ball, kc who dominated them on the ground and had them beat, and a sorry det team who doesnt believe in anything other than lining up their sorry qb in shotgun and playing right into donks hands. combined 1-8 (2 after yesterdays gift to bal) for teams donks have barely skated by, minny best team they have faced and sports the kind of offense this d not gonna enjoy facing. i actually like viks chances of winning and really feel this line inflated. how donks laying 7 to minny while cincy laying 4 to kc is beyond me? i think those lines are ass backwards.

that Cinci & KC game is a trap.. easily one of those games id rather lay off and just watch to see what happens.

[2daBank]

that Cinci & KC game is a trap.. easily one of those games id rather lay off and just watch to see what happens.

dont believe in traps (kinda strange you do but are backing oak, if anything feels like a setup this week it oak and panthers imo). if dalton continues playing well cincy wins by a td or more. sure it possible he reverts but not real likely at home against this secondary. i play cincy at home practically every week i get what i feel a short line,. their playoff woes and overall feelings bout coach and ginger qb keep them as a great bet more often than not. it will take more than 3 wins for ppl to fully believe in them, plenty of kc backers catching 4 im sure. maybe if line was less than 3 id hear ya a little but most model guys i respect only made it slightly higher than 4 and that slight value is easily explained by perception that bungals will revert at some point to what they been in playoffs, ppl have a hard time realizing what a great reg season home bet they are because of playoff failures i guess. if kc wins so be it, id play cincy in this spot every time at -4 and have come out ahead in doing so the last several years.

[dmoney1506]

I like Jags n colts over
feel like it's going to be a shootout. What do you guys think?

[JayDr3am]

dont believe in traps (kinda strange you do but are backing oak, if anything feels like a setup this week it oak and panthers imo). if dalton continues playing well cincy wins by a td or more. sure it possible he reverts but not real likely at home against this secondary. i play cincy at home practically every week i get what i feel a short line,. their playoff woes and overall feelings bout coach and ginger qb keep them as a great bet more often than not. it will take more than 3 wins for ppl to fully believe in them, plenty of kc backers catching 4 im sure. maybe if line was less than 3 id hear ya a little but most model guys i respect only made it slightly higher than 4 and that slight value is easily explained by perception that bungals will revert at some point to what they been in playoffs, ppl have a hard time realizing what a great reg season home bet they are because of playoff failures i guess. if kc wins so be it, id play cincy in this spot every time at -4 and have come out ahead in doing so the last several years.

lol touche.. but i have a bad habbit of callin every single game I just dont simply like a "trap" lol (tryna trick me and take my money). but it is somewhat contradicting of me to take Oakland and be afraid of a trap.. but I'm usually decent at sniffin'em out. and really a lot of games especially favorites seem like a trap this week. its gonna be a hell of a week for sure and its gonna be strange the way it crumbles.

[JayDr3am]

I like Jags n colts over
feel like it's going to be a shootout. What do you guys think?

dude this is one of those games i loved on paper, (Jacksonville +10) but sat and thought about it more and more and just decided to stay away. BUT the Over could be a good spot if luck just blows up and puts up 30+ and lets Jacksonville cover that lil pocket change in the end..

[2daBank]

I like Jags n colts over
feel like it's going to be a shootout. What do you guys think?

i bet it early in the week, havnt been loving the news on luck all week. long as he plays and is same guy in 4th qrtr last week i think it gets into the 50s pretty easy. little worried even if he plays indy tries to spare him throwing a ton and relies more on the run gm. hopefully the remedy for that will be jags putting up points of their own and forcing the issue.