Tommy Karate NFL 2015-2016

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  • StackinGreen
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 10-09-10
    • 12140

    #281
    Brutalized on that BS fumble return TD

    GB up against it now. Was that a fortuitous loss in a way, now going to Washington? Otherwise they would have played Seattle, right?
    Comment
    • StackinGreen
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 10-09-10
      • 12140

      #282
      My prelim picks with scores:

      Kansas City 21, Houston 17
      Seattle 24, Minnesota 17
      Pittsburgh 24, Cincinnati 21
      Green Bay 24, Washington 20

      I could see the last 3 flying over, so I'd only tease those down and take overs, if I do tease. The first I'll tease up and go under.
      Comment
      • Tommy Karate
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 10-12-13
        • 13445

        #283
        Originally posted by StackinGreen
        You gotta get GB here

        Dungy's on Minnesota, public making the number better for GB backers

        How can you back Bridgewater and Minne against this GB team?

        Just sit back, relax

        and picture me rollin'
        what does tony dungy have to do with swaying the public?

        i didnt even look at the playoff games yet -- yesterday made me sick.
        Comment
        • StackinGreen
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 10-09-10
          • 12140

          #284
          Would like to know your thoughts, you are good in the playoffs typically. Make it like the bowl season!
          Comment
          • meader99
            SBR MVP
            • 10-30-10
            • 4223

            #285
            Originally posted by StackinGreen
            Brutalized on that BS fumble return TD

            GB up against it now. Was that a fortuitous loss in a way, now going to Washington? Otherwise they would have played Seattle, right?
            No, they would have hosted Minny again. Minny probably should have layed down and kicked the packers ass in the playoffs. Would have been easier then playing Seattle.
            Comment
            • Tommy Karate
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 10-12-13
              • 13445

              #286
              Originally posted by Tommy Karate
              12.10 -- 12.21: 13-11 (+13u)
              N1: 1-0
              N3: 2-0
              N9: 0-1
              N12: 1-1
              N13: 1-1
              ---------------------
              NFL YTD: 90-98 (+7u)
              N1: 6-2
              N2: 0-1
              N3: 3-5
              N4: 1-2
              N5: 0-1
              N6: 4-5
              N7: 11-11
              N8: 6-7
              N9: 0-2

              N10: 1-3
              N12: 7-7
              N13: 2-4
              N14: 2-6
              12.24 - 1.3: 14-14 (-26u)
              N1: 4-7
              N4: 1-0
              N6: 1-1
              N9: 2-1
              N10: 1-5
              N12: 0-1
              N13: 2-1
              N14: 0-1
              -------------------
              NFL YTD: 104-112 (-19u)
              N1: 10-9
              N2: 0-1
              N3: 3-5
              N4: 2-2
              N5: 0-1
              N6: 5-6
              N7: 11-11
              N8: 6-7
              N9: 2-3

              N10: 2-8
              N12: 7-8
              N13: 4-5
              N14: 2-7
              Comment
              • StackinGreen
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 10-09-10
                • 12140

                #287
                No plays locked yet, TK?
                Comment
                • Tommy Karate
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 10-12-13
                  • 13445

                  #288
                  Originally posted by StackinGreen
                  No plays locked yet, TK?
                  Didnt even look into games yet. Probably tonight.
                  Comment
                  • Tommy Karate
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 10-12-13
                    • 13445

                    #289
                    Saturday Jan 9--

                    (4u) Texans*
                    (2u) Under Hou/KC 40

                    -I always like to play teams that are streaking into the playoffs. While KC obviously has the longest streak going, Houston is quietly on a nice roll also with a solid defense. Everyone is on KC this week, and i cant follow the public burial i envision to start the playoffs. I will wait for 4/4.5 and lock in the Texans.

                    Final Score: Houston - 20/KC - 17

                    (4u) Steelers -3

                    -If the Bengals had The Red Rifle going, i would likely be on them as Pitt is terrible vs the pass. Unfortunately, i dont see a backup QB like MCCarron being able to take advantage - i also see Cincy being more conservative to protect him and trying to run the ball. This is the Steelers strength as they are very stout vs the run. Pitt has a DVOA rank of 5, thus i dont see Hill/Bernard getting much on the ground. Without D'Angelo Williams, expect Big Ben to air it out 40 times in this one - and although Cincy has an ok pass defense, Pitt has star firepower on the outside. I'll take Big Ben over a backup QB without hesitation.

                    Final Score: Pitt - 27/Cincy - 13

                    Sunday Jan 10--

                    (10u) Seahawks -5

                    -Not much to say here; plus i really dont want to do a write-up for my largest play of the weekend. Willing to try and break the hex with the others.

                    Final Score: Sea - 41/Minny - 10

                    (6u) Redskins +1
                    (4u) Over Redskins 44.5

                    -GB has clearly not been the same team without Jordy Nelson, but they also have problems in the trenches. GB does not have a run game anymore, and i really dont see one area of the game they can exploit. Kirk Cousins has been great this season, especially at home. The Packers actually have a good DVOA rank of 4 vs tight ends, but they havent seen many like Jordan Reed. He is a matchup nightmare, and i fully expect a 100 yard/1-2 TD performance. Will fade the public in this one and back the Skins who are coming into the playoffs in great form. I do expect some points to be scored and will jump on the discounted number of 44.5 at this point. Sharp money clearly liked under 47, but i can see a lot of buy back to push this back to 47 on game day.

                    Final Score: Wash - 30/GB - 23

                    DVOA rankings i pull from Football Outsiders: -- http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef
                    Comment
                    • eddycash
                      SBR MVP
                      • 11-06-13
                      • 4531

                      #290
                      Tommy are u thinking about switching sides on your ncaaf play? Got a bad feeling about that one.
                      Comment
                      • Tommy Karate
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 10-12-13
                        • 13445

                        #291
                        Originally posted by eddycash
                        Tommy are u thinking about switching sides on your ncaaf play? Got a bad feeling about that one.
                        no sir...
                        Comment
                        • POOLSIDE
                          SBR MVP
                          • 09-06-14
                          • 2839

                          #292
                          You're gonna fade the public and back the Skins? Over half of the bets are on Washington, by all accounts.
                          Comment
                          • Tommy Karate
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 10-12-13
                            • 13445

                            #293
                            Originally posted by POOLSIDE
                            You're gonna fade the public and back the Skins? Over half of the bets are on Washington, by all accounts.
                            im looking at several "public/square" books and GB is getting roughly 70% of the Money line action.

                            no idea what you're looking at, but if you think the average player isnt backing Rodgers as a dog, i dont know what else to tell you.

                            if any source you're looking at currently shows a lot of Wash money, that is clearly early/sharp money. I can guarantee you that the cheese heads will be out in full force by Sunday.
                            Comment
                            • Tommy Karate
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 10-12-13
                              • 13445

                              #294
                              SuperBowl Future -- (4u) Seahawks +500
                              Comment
                              • POOLSIDE
                                SBR MVP
                                • 09-06-14
                                • 2839

                                #295
                                Originally posted by Tommy Karate
                                im looking at several "public/square" books and GB is getting roughly 70% of the Money line action.

                                no idea what you're looking at, but if you think the average player isnt backing Rodgers as a dog, i dont know what else to tell you.

                                if any source you're looking at currently shows a lot of Wash money, that is clearly early/sharp money. I can guarantee you that the cheese heads will be out in full force by Sunday.
                                First off, I don't need you to tell me anything. That's an understatement.

                                Second, I guess I'm confused. Not saying you're wrong, but if you're so sure the Packers will get pounded this weekend... then why is there so much "sharp money" on Washington now, when the line is sure to get bet up? Doesn't being "sharp" imply getting the best line?

                                You don't think that maybe the public is beginning to write off the Packers after their horrible second half of the season, and also jumping on board the loveable underdog Redskins who are seemingly so good all of a sudden?

                                Haven't come up with a solid pick for this game, but definitely leaning Green Bay. Not sure how I could possibly back a team who barely finished above .500 despite playing in arguably the worst division in football and having such a soft schedule that they only played three teams all season that finished with a winning record. As we all know, they lost to all three of those teams.

                                Oh and the scores late in the fourth quarter of those three games, before they scored garbage points?

                                34-13 vs Jets
                                27-3 vs Patriots
                                44-14 vs Panthers

                                Tl;dr - Washington hasn't been competitive with a single team who finished with a winning record. Not even close. Like, they'd need to score four times in the last minute of all of those games not even close. All of a sudden the smart money is on a young quarterback starting his first playoff game against arguably the best quarterback in football? What's the angle here? Are we hoping that Aaron Rodgers forgets to take off his Super Bowl ring and it forces him to fumble a bunch of snaps?
                                Comment
                                • meader99
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 10-30-10
                                  • 4223

                                  #296
                                  Originally posted by POOLSIDE
                                  First off, I don't need you to tell me anything. That's an understatement.

                                  Second, I guess I'm confused. Not saying you're wrong, but if you're so sure the Packers will get pounded this weekend... then why is there so much "sharp money" on Washington now, when the line is sure to get bet up? Doesn't being "sharp" imply getting the best line?

                                  You don't think that maybe the public is beginning to write off the Packers after their horrible second half of the season, and also jumping on board the loveable underdog Redskins who are seemingly so good all of a sudden?

                                  Haven't come up with a solid pick for this game, but definitely leaning Green Bay. Not sure how I could possibly back a team who barely finished above .500 despite playing in arguably the worst division in football and having such a soft schedule that they only played three teams all season that finished with a winning record. As we all know, they lost to all three of those teams.

                                  Oh and the scores late in the fourth quarter of those three games, before they scored garbage points?

                                  34-13 vs Jets
                                  27-3 vs Patriots
                                  44-14 vs Panthers

                                  Tl;dr - Washington hasn't been competitive with a single team who finished with a winning record. Not even close. Like, they'd need to score four times in the last minute of all of those games not even close. All of a sudden the smart money is on a young quarterback starting his first playoff game against arguably the best quarterback in football? What's the angle here? Are we hoping that Aaron Rodgers forgets to take off his Super Bowl ring and it forces him to fumble a bunch of snaps?
                                  This isn't as simple as Rodgers vs Cousins. There are a lot of things wrong with the Packers and Rodgers is part of it. There seems to be a rift between Rodgers and McCarthy. I wouldn't be totally shocked if McCarthy is fired with a loss to Washington. A lot of people continue to blame the receivers for not being able to get open. Some of that is true, but I've watched Rodgers enough to have seen him throw his receivers open a ton. Rodgers isn't seeing things right now and he hasn't since Denver laid it on them week 8. Offensive line is hit or miss and nobody knows if a running game will show up or not. Should be a fairly close, competitive game here, but I trust the home team much more than I trust a team that is 4-6 their last ten and continues to struggle moving the ball.
                                  Comment
                                  • StackinGreen
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 10-09-10
                                    • 12140

                                    #297
                                    Here are my confirmed (top) plays, if anyone cares. By the way, I love the preceding dialogue, guys.

                                    Seattle -5, big just like TK
                                    KC/HOU UNDER 40
                                    Green Bay pk


                                    I will play Cincinnati +3 or even 3.5 but just smaller. I also think the total (under) might be a good play, so a 2 team 7 pointer would be good.

                                    Also, give me a 4 team sweetheart teaser with the above and Cincinnati + the points.

                                    POOLSIDE,

                                    I also can't get over the angle of Rodgers vs. a team that just isn't that good and his is up against a wall. I realize they haven't looked as good at WR or with protection, but your argument of Washington getting love not beating anyone of note, and all of a sudden against arguably the best QB who doesn't want to look embarrassed 3 straight weeks?

                                    Yes, it's a gamble, but I'll take that all day --- in my opinion, that's the point.

                                    Meader, no doubt that he hasn't been seeing it as well, and it is a combo (Adams has been super disappointing). He had James Jones on an outside throw for that tie last week, btw, I will criticize him for that.

                                    I still think they'll get it done and I'm sure enough to put on it
                                    Comment
                                    • POOLSIDE
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 09-06-14
                                      • 2839

                                      #298
                                      Originally posted by meader99
                                      This isn't as simple as Rodgers vs Cousins.
                                      You're going to quote my entire post and then tell me it's not as simple as just the quarterbacks? Did you skip the part where I mentioned that Washington is basically a .500 team despite the benefit of playing in a pathetic division and having an insanely easy schedule that saw them playing only three winning teams all season, all three of whom they got blown out by?

                                      Let's try another angle. Swap the schedules of the Redskins and Packers. The Skins now have to play Detroit, Chicago, and Minnesota twice each. They also have to play Seattle, Kansas City, Denver, Carolina, and Arizona. I don't have them winning more than two or three of those games max. That puts them at, at best, 3-8 with the Niners, Rams, Chargers, Raiders, and Cowboys (who they already lost to at home) pending. All of those teams can beat them. The absolute best I can see them doing there is 4-1, and honestly I think it would be more like 2-3. At 4-1 that leaves us with a 7-9 team, maybe 8-8 in an absolute best case scenario. 8-8 isn't winning a division with Minnesota and Detroit feasting on them.

                                      The other side of that coin leaves the Packers playing the Giants, Eagles, and decimated Cowboys for six of their games. Are you beginning to get it? All of a sudden we've got the Packers looking at 5-1 or 6-0 in the division and they still get to play the Dolphins, Falcons, Bucs, Saints, Rams, Jets, Bears and Bills. All games they would be favored to win. Then they're left with the Pats and Panthers, the latter of which they did play and had a chance to tie from the four yard line late in the game. You don't think they're running away with that division?

                                      I get it, the Packers don't look as good as we're used to seeing them. I get it, the Skins look better than they actually are. But come on, this Skins team is the worst team in the playoffs by a wide margin and I fully expect the Packers to take care of business on Sunday.
                                      Comment
                                      • eddycash
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 11-06-13
                                        • 4531

                                        #299
                                        thanks TK, just checking on your 20u plays i remember last superbowl lol
                                        Comment
                                        • meader99
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 10-30-10
                                          • 4223

                                          #300
                                          Originally posted by POOLSIDE
                                          You're going to quote my entire post and then tell me it's not as simple as just the quarterbacks? Did you skip the part where I mentioned that Washington is basically a .500 team despite the benefit of playing in a pathetic division and having an insanely easy schedule that saw them playing only three winning teams all season, all three of whom they got blown out by?

                                          Let's try another angle. Swap the schedules of the Redskins and Packers. The Skins now have to play Detroit, Chicago, and Minnesota twice each. They also have to play Seattle, Kansas City, Denver, Carolina, and Arizona. I don't have them winning more than two or three of those games max. That puts them at, at best, 3-8 with the Niners, Rams, Chargers, Raiders, and Cowboys (who they already lost to at home) pending. All of those teams can beat them. The absolute best I can see them doing there is 4-1, and honestly I think it would be more like 2-3. At 4-1 that leaves us with a 7-9 team, maybe 8-8 in an absolute best case scenario. 8-8 isn't winning a division with Minnesota and Detroit feasting on them.

                                          The other side of that coin leaves the Packers playing the Giants, Eagles, and decimated Cowboys for six of their games. Are you beginning to get it? All of a sudden we've got the Packers looking at 5-1 or 6-0 in the division and they still get to play the Dolphins, Falcons, Bucs, Saints, Rams, Jets, Bears and Bills. All games they would be favored to win. Then they're left with the Pats and Panthers, the latter of which they did play and had a chance to tie from the four yard line late in the game. You don't think they're running away with that division?

                                          I get it, the Packers don't look as good as we're used to seeing them. I get it, the Skins look better than they actually are. But come on, this Skins team is the worst team in the playoffs by a wide margin and I fully expect the Packers to take care of business on Sunday.
                                          You can swap schedules all you want, but part of the scheduling includes WHEN you play a team. GB smashed the Chiefs early in the year..... It's doubtful they could beat them today. This GB team that you are raving about also lost home games to Detroit, Chicago and Minnesota, and let's not forget it took a miracle coupled with some bone head coaching to beat Detroit. Say what you will about Washington and their schedule, they are on an upswing and peaking at the time every team wants to be peaking. Can't exactly say remotely the same thing about GB. Hope they win, just don't see it.
                                          Comment
                                          • KRIT
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 01-11-14
                                            • 12878

                                            #301
                                            Great write ups guys. Got a feeling public cashes big this weekend. Wouldn't surprise me if all 4 public plays hit, I think Houston has the best chance to knock the trend though.
                                            Comment
                                            • Tommy Karate
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 10-12-13
                                              • 13445

                                              #302
                                              Originally posted by POOLSIDE
                                              First off, I don't need you to tell me anything. That's an understatement.

                                              Second, I guess I'm confused. Not saying you're wrong, but if you're so sure the Packers will get pounded this weekend... then why is there so much "sharp money" on Washington now, when the line is sure to get bet up? Doesn't being "sharp" imply getting the best line?

                                              You don't think that maybe the public is beginning to write off the Packers after their horrible second half of the season, and also jumping on board the loveable underdog Redskins who are seemingly so good all of a sudden?

                                              Haven't come up with a solid pick for this game, but definitely leaning Green Bay. Not sure how I could possibly back a team who barely finished above .500 despite playing in arguably the worst division in football and having such a soft schedule that they only played three teams all season that finished with a winning record. As we all know, they lost to all three of those teams.

                                              Oh and the scores late in the fourth quarter of those three games, before they scored garbage points?

                                              34-13 vs Jets
                                              27-3 vs Patriots
                                              44-14 vs Panthers

                                              Tl;dr - Washington hasn't been competitive with a single team who finished with a winning record. Not even close. Like, they'd need to score four times in the last minute of all of those games not even close. All of a sudden the smart money is on a young quarterback starting his first playoff game against arguably the best quarterback in football? What's the angle here? Are we hoping that Aaron Rodgers forgets to take off his Super Bowl ring and it forces him to fumble a bunch of snaps?
                                              Typically sharper players get down early and the public gets down mostly on game day. Now of course you have average players betting on Tuesday and Pros getting down on game day - some people may look at the game as a PK and want to get down early, but you're right - some are likely sitting on the sidelines waiting for GB to move to a favorite. Just because the # of bets on GB will increase on game day, doesnt necessarily mean the line will move much. If early money has pushed the line from PK to Wash -1; maybe the line comes back down to PK or GB -1 on game day. I certainly do not expect GB to move to a 3 point fav. I think the line will flip a lot, which is why i didnt mind booking now. Plus i feel Wash is going to win the game, so i really dont care about staring at my screen hoping to get +1 somewhere.

                                              Yes, many people are liking Wash now, but i still feel that the casual player looks at this as Rodgers being free money. And again, looking at the public sites i still today see 70% of the ML bets on GB.

                                              Im not going to talk you out of GB -- it would not shock me to see Rodgers get it done, but the 3 games you mentioned were all on the road. You can draw a line through Car and NE - they are both favorites to win it all. The Jets game better serves your argument.
                                              Cousins has a QB rating of 117 at home and 87 on the road.

                                              I think the books are clearly setting a trap with this game, and are definitely siding with Wash. If GB were the play, they would be -3. Nothing wrong with taking "public" plays - i took a few this weekend but i dont think GB is one to back.
                                              Comment
                                              • Tommy Karate
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 10-12-13
                                                • 13445

                                                #303
                                                Originally posted by meader99
                                                This isn't as simple as Rodgers vs Cousins. There are a lot of things wrong with the Packers and Rodgers is part of it. There seems to be a rift between Rodgers and McCarthy. I wouldn't be totally shocked if McCarthy is fired with a loss to Washington. A lot of people continue to blame the receivers for not being able to get open. Some of that is true, but I've watched Rodgers enough to have seen him throw his receivers open a ton. Rodgers isn't seeing things right now and he hasn't since Denver laid it on them week 8. Offensive line is hit or miss and nobody knows if a running game will show up or not. Should be a fairly close, competitive game here, but I trust the home team much more than I trust a team that is 4-6 their last ten and continues to struggle moving the ball.
                                                arent you a big GB fan Meader?
                                                Comment
                                                • meader99
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 10-30-10
                                                  • 4223

                                                  #304
                                                  Originally posted by Tommy Karate
                                                  arent you a big GB fan Meader?
                                                  Yep.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Tommy Karate
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 10-12-13
                                                    • 13445

                                                    #305
                                                    Originally posted by meader99
                                                    Yep.
                                                    now i might add to Wash
                                                    Comment
                                                    • StackinGreen
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 10-09-10
                                                      • 12140

                                                      #306
                                                      I'm backing meader and GB here, don't do it TK ...
                                                      Comment
                                                      • meader99
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 10-30-10
                                                        • 4223

                                                        #307
                                                        Originally posted by StackinGreen
                                                        I'm backing meader and GB here, don't do it TK ...
                                                        I wouldn't bet the Packers the rest of the year. Can't trust that squad with my money.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • meader99
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 10-30-10
                                                          • 4223

                                                          #308
                                                          Originally posted by meader99
                                                          I wouldn't bet the Packers the rest of the year. Can't trust that squad with my money.
                                                          That being said, I do hope they beat Washington and end up in Arizona in which case I will unload on the Cards.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Tommy Karate
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 10-12-13
                                                            • 13445

                                                            #309
                                                            booked Hou +3.5
                                                            Comment
                                                            • StackinGreen
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 10-09-10
                                                              • 12140

                                                              #310
                                                              Originally posted by Tommy Karate
                                                              booked Hou +3.5
                                                              Since I think the game will go under, that's a huge hook. Good luck.

                                                              Lang is on Houston, though, sorry to tell ya
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Tommy Karate
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 10-12-13
                                                                • 13445

                                                                #311
                                                                (2u) Under Seahawks/Vikings 40
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Tommy Karate
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 10-12-13
                                                                  • 13445

                                                                  #312
                                                                  at least i made some nice writeups

                                                                  never fails - its amazing
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • meader99
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 10-30-10
                                                                    • 4223

                                                                    #313
                                                                    TK, time to double down on the cards and get it all back.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Tommy Karate
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 10-12-13
                                                                      • 13445

                                                                      #314
                                                                      No double down meander. Might be Time to quit nfl for the year. Maybe just stick to totals. I have no feel this year.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • StackinGreen
                                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                                        • 10-09-10
                                                                        • 12140

                                                                        #315
                                                                        Originally posted by meader99
                                                                        TK, time to double down on the cards and get it all back.

                                                                        Yeah, Meader, we tried to tell the forum and the "experts" about the Washington matchup. Well done.
                                                                        Comment
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