2013 Correlation Handicapping System
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ny92mikeSBR High Roller
- 11-26-12
- 230
#71Comment -
ny92mikeSBR High Roller
- 11-26-12
- 230
#72Again guys sorry about the mishap. However, with that said the only real game that I got hurt on with the error issues was the Cleveland game on a straight bet. Still managed to win some bets.
6 team teaser CAROLINA +½ Win SAN FRANCISCO -10½ DALLAS +9 KANSAS CITY -1 BUFFALO +18 NEW ENGLAND -1 4 team teaser Lose OAKLAND +9 WASHINGTON +19 ATLANTA +8½ GREEN BAY -4 STRAIGHT BET CAROLINA -5½ Win ATLANTA +2½ Lose BUFFALO +12 Lose DALLAS +3 Win KANSAS CITY -7 Lose OAKLAND +3 Win SAN FRANCISCO -16½ Win SEATTLE -10½ STRAIGHT BET TOTAL u51 Lose (DALLAS vrs DETROIT) TOTAL u52½ Win (N.Y. GIANTS vrs PHILADELPHIA) TOTAL o39½ Win (CLEVELAND vrs KANSAS CITY) TOTAL u50 Lose (BUFFALO vrs NEW ORLEANS) TOTAL o40½ Lose (PITTSBURGH vrs OAKLAND) TOTAL u45 Win (ATLANTA vrs ARIZONA) TOTAL o41½ (SEATTLE vrs ST. LOUIS)
With the 6 top coming in and some decent straight bets it wasn't a bad week, still have the seattle game to look at which I'll be posting the updated projections for that game.
As I mentioned before that the system was hitting a very high percentage today things come back to earth and as it stands its at 64%. Would love to take these percentages over the god awful results from the picks I posted earlier in the week.
Anyway, here the updated.
Team Actual Score Total W/L SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_08 | CarolinaPanthers @ TampaBayBuccaneers Fav Group 3 Visiting Team CarolinaPanthers 31 44 W -29.341 30.6 47.9 -7.8 1.2 CarolinaPanthers W Over Week_08 | CarolinaPanthers @ TampaBayBuccaneers Dog Group 8 Home Team TampaBayBuccaneers 13 44 L 29.341 17.3 L Team Actual Score Total W/L SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_08 | DallasCowboys @ DetroitLions Dog Group 2 Visiting Team DallasCowboys 30 61 L -4.363 22.0 44.6 -2.3 2.7 DallasCowboys L Under Week_08 | DallasCowboys @ DetroitLions Fav Group 2 Home Team DetroitLions 31 61 W 4.363 22.6 W Team Actual Score Total W/L SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_08 | SanFrancisco49ers @ JacksonvilleJaguars Fav Group 4 Visiting Team SanFrancisco49ers 42 52 W -44.446 30.8 36.5 -8.5 4.0 SanFrancisco49ers W Under Week_08 | SanFrancisco49ers @ JacksonvilleJaguars Dog Group 8 Home Team JacksonvilleJaguars 10 52 L 44.446 5.8 L Team Actual Score Total W/L SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_08 | ClevelandBrowns @ KansasCityChiefs Dog Group 7 Visiting Team ClevelandBrowns 17 40 L 36.889 16.0 29.0 -10.0 8.5 ClevelandBrowns W Under Week_08 | ClevelandBrowns @ KansasCityChiefs Fav Group 1 Home Team KansasCityChiefs 23 40 W -36.889 13.0 L Team Actual Score Total W/L SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_08 | BuffaloBills @ NewOrleansSaints Dog Group 4 Visiting Team BuffaloBills 17 52 L 15.129 18.2 46.2 -2.3 7.1 BuffaloBills L Under Week_08 | BuffaloBills @ NewOrleansSaints Fav Group 2 Home Team NewOrleansSaints 35 52 W -15.129 28.0 W Team Actual Score Total W/L SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_08 | MiamiDolphins @ NewEnglandPatriots Dog Group 6 Visiting Team MiamiDolphins 17 44 L 6.640 17.2 44.2 2.8 2.1 NewEnglandPatriots L Under Week_08 | MiamiDolphins @ NewEnglandPatriots Fav Group 4 Home Team NewEnglandPatriots 27 44 W -6.640 27.0 W Team Actual Score Total W/L SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_08 | NewYorkGiants @ PhiladelphiaEagles Dog Group 8 Visiting Team NewYorkGiants 15 22 W 17.428 19.3 46.7 2.0 2.0 PhiladelphiaEagles L Under Week_08 | NewYorkGiants @ PhiladelphiaEagles Fav Group 3 Home Team PhiladelphiaEagles 7 22 L -17.428 27.4 W Team Actual Score Total W/L SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_08 | NewYorkJets @ CincinnatiBengals Dog Group 6 Visiting Team NewYorkJets 9 58 L 4.399 18.5 45.3 1.7 2.4 CincinnatiBengals L Over Week_08 | NewYorkJets @ CincinnatiBengals Fav Group 5 Home Team CincinnatiBengals 49 58 W -4.399 26.7 W Team Actual Score Total W/L SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_08 | PittsburghSteelers @ OaklandRaiders Fav Group 7 Visiting Team PittsburghSteelers 18 39 L 0.577 18.7 42.8 8.3 5.7 OaklandRaiders L Over Week_08 | PittsburghSteelers @ OaklandRaiders Dog Group 7 Home Team OaklandRaiders 21 39 W -0.577 24.1 W Team Actual Score Total W/L SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_08 | AtlantaFalcons @ ArizonaCardinals Dog Group 5 Visiting Team AtlantaFalcons 13 40 L -1.282 21.2 44.0 -0.9 1.7 AtlantaFalcons L Under Week_08 | AtlantaFalcons @ ArizonaCardinals Fav Group 6 Home Team ArizonaCardinals 27 40 W 1.282 22.8 W Team Actual Score Total W/L SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_08 | WashingtonRedskins @ DenverBroncos Dog Group 5 Visiting Team WashingtonRedskins 21 66 L 16.785 19.2 47.0 -4.3 8.7 WashingtonRedskins L Under Week_08 | WashingtonRedskins @ DenverBroncos Fav Group 1 Home Team DenverBroncos 45 66 W -16.785 27.8 W Team Actual Score Total W/L SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_08 | GreenBayPackers @ MinnesotaVikings Fav Group 1 Visiting Team GreenBayPackers 0 0 L -12.858 26.3 44.5 1.9 6.0 MinnesotaVikings W Under Week_08 | GreenBayPackers @ MinnesotaVikings Dog Group 6 Home Team MinnesotaVikings 0 0 L 12.858 18.2 L Team Actual Score Total W/L SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_08 | SeattleSeahawks @ StLouisRams Fav Group 1 Visiting Team SeattleSeahawks 0 0 L -18.278 28.1 44.7 -1.0 4.7 SeattleSeahawks W Over Week_08 | SeattleSeahawks @ StLouisRams Dog Group 7 Home Team St.LouisRams 0 0 L 18.278 16.6 L Comment -
steel26SBR Hustler
- 11-14-12
- 53
#73Does your system work for NBA?Comment -
steel26SBR Hustler
- 11-14-12
- 53
#74or any other sport like college football and basketball?Comment -
witnessmycalmSBR Rookie
- 10-29-13
- 4
#76I'm intrigued by the thought of this system being applied to NBA. Could be a huge moneymaker.Comment -
ny92mikeSBR High Roller
- 11-26-12
- 230
#77Week 8 Results
Week 8 Results Games Games Played Wins Loss Win % Straight Up 13 11 2 85% Over/ Under 13 5 8 38% ATS 13 7 6 54% ATS w/ Probability 4 1 3 25% ATS w/ STD 2 1 1 50% Score Probability 3 1 2 33% Combo 9 4 5 44% Year to Date Results Games Games Played Wins Loss Win % Straight Up 101 58 43 57% Over/ Under 101 55 46 54% ATS 99 52 47 53% ATS w/ Probability 43 19 24 44% ATS w/ STD 30 17 13 57% Score Probability 13 8 5 62% Combo 9 4 5 44%
I saw that Grinder1000 felt the need to apologize for his picks this week in his thread, and I feel as I should do the same.
This entire ATS Probability percentage has been absolutely dreadful. If you played the games with an ATS probability of below 50%, the system this week would of yielded a 71% success rate ATS.Perhaps, I should look at the past weeks and determine if thats the side to be on.
Anyway, Sorry guys for some of these projected winners that have bombed. I understand some of the games and know to stay away, like teams with serious injuries or teams like Denver, whom are playing above the projected score range or the Giants whom are/ where playing below.
This week, I couldn't be happier with the straight up projections at 85%; and really can't complain much about the 54% ats; two methods that I talked up early in the week bombed though, so that was a bit upsetting.
I'll try to get the updates for next weeks games posted tomorrow, or just as soon as the stat pages on the site are updated.
Did decent with the bets this week and will look for another payday next.
GLComment -
ny92mikeSBR High Roller
- 11-26-12
- 230
#78
Honestly, I've never given it much thought. Big fan of NFL so it just seemed like the direction to go for me.
I'm curious to know why you are thinking this system could be good for NBA, while as it stands its just over 50% for NFL?Comment -
Mako-SBRSBR Sharp
- 10-15-13
- 492
#79
Very promising though which is why I'm watching it closely and rooting for it to succeed.Comment -
ny92mikeSBR High Roller
- 11-26-12
- 230
#80Week 9 Forecast
Alright guys, the system has just entered the back half of the season. I'm expecting to start seeing some more positive results from here on out.
Week_09 | CincinnatiBengals @ MiamiDolphins Average Score Projections >=70% >=6.4 Weekly Schedule Visitor Spread Over / Under Against the Spread ATS Probability STD Straight Up Over /Under Proj. Score Probability SCN Combo Week_09 | CincinnatiBengals @ MiamiDolphins -2.5 42.5 CincinnatiBengals 20% 2.4 CincinnatiBengals Over -17.8 Bet Week_09 | KansasCityChiefs @ BuffaloBills -3.0 40.5 KansasCityChiefs 50% 2.9 KansasCityChiefs Over Bet -21.0 Bet Week_09 | AtlantaFalcons @ CarolinaPanthers 7.5 44.0 CarolinaPanthers 10% 1.0 CarolinaPanthers Under 24.7 Bet Week_09 | MinnesotaVikings @ DallasCowboys 10.0 47.5 MinnesotaVikings 80% 5.4 DallasCowboys Under 34.4 Week_09 | NewOrleansSaints @ NewYorkJets -5.0 45.5 NewOrleansSaints 40% 2.7 NewOrleansSaints Under -34.3 Bet Week_09 | TennesseeTitans @ StLouisRams -3.0 39.5 St.LouisRams 70% 3.5 TennesseeTitans Over -4.1 Bet Week_09 | SanDiegoChargers @ WashingtonRedskins 0.0 51.0 WashingtonRedskins Under -2.8 Bet Week_09 | PhiladelphiaEagles @ OaklandRaiders 0.0 0.0 PhiladelphiaEagles Over -2.8 Bet Week_09 | TampaBayBuccaneers @ SeattleSeahawks 16.5 40.0 TampaBayBuccaneers 100% 12.1 SeattleSeahawks Over 20.8 Bet Week_09 | BaltimoreRavens @ ClevelandBrowns -2.5 41.0 ClevelandBrowns 30% 2.6 BaltimoreRavens Over -5.9 Bet Week_09 | PittsburghSteelers @ NewEnglandPatriots 7.0 44.0 NewEnglandPatriots 0% 0.4 NewEnglandPatriots Under Bet 13.7 Bet Week_09 | IndianapolisColts @ HoustonTexans -2.5 44.5 IndianapolisColts 60% 2.9 IndianapolisColts Over -16.3 Bet Week_09 | ChicagoBears @ GreenBayPackers 10.5 49.5 ChicagoBears 90% 6.4 GreenBayPackers Under 4.3 Bet -2.8 -2.8 Team Actual Score Total W/L Strength Comp. SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_09 | CincinnatiBengals @ MiamiDolphins Fav Group 3 Visiting Team CincinnatiBengals 0 0 L 17.753 -17.753 27.7 45.5 -7.4 2.4 CincinnatiBengals W Over Week_09 | CincinnatiBengals @ MiamiDolphins Dog Group 6 Home Team MiamiDolphins 0 0 L -17.753 17.753 17.8 L Team Actual Score Total W/L Strength Comp. SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_09 | KansasCityChiefs @ BuffaloBills Fav Group 2 Visiting Team KansasCityChiefs 0 0 L 20.962 -20.962 28.9 46.1 -8.7 2.9 KansasCityChiefs W Over Week_09 | KansasCityChiefs @ BuffaloBills Dog Group 5 Home Team BuffaloBills 0 0 L -20.962 20.962 17.2 L Team Actual Score Total W/L Strength Comp. SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_09 | AtlantaFalcons @ CarolinaPanthers Dog Group 6 Visiting Team AtlantaFalcons 0 0 L -24.713 24.713 14.5 42.0 5.5 1.0 CarolinaPanthers L Under Week_09 | AtlantaFalcons @ CarolinaPanthers Fav Group 2 Home Team CarolinaPanthers 0 0 L 24.713 -24.713 27.5 W Team Actual Score Total W/L Strength Comp. SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_09 | MinnesotaVikings @ DallasCowboys Dog Group 6 Visiting Team MinnesotaVikings 0 0 L -34.370 34.370 12.6 34.4 -0.8 5.4 MinnesotaVikings L Under Week_09 | MinnesotaVikings @ DallasCowboys Fav Group 1 Home Team DallasCowboys 0 0 L 34.370 -34.370 21.8 W Team Actual Score Total W/L Strength Comp. SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_09 | NewOrleansSaints @ NewYorkJets Fav Group 2 Visiting Team NewOrleansSaints 0 0 L 34.302 -34.302 32.3 49.2 -10.5 2.7 NewOrleansSaints W Over Week_09 | NewOrleansSaints @ NewYorkJets Dog Group 7 Home Team NewYorkJets 0 0 L -34.302 34.302 16.8 L Team Actual Score Total W/L Strength Comp. SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_09 | TennesseeTitans @ StLouisRams Fav Group 5 Visiting Team TennesseeTitans 0 0 L 4.070 -4.070 21.7 44.4 4.0 3.5 St.LouisRams L Over Week_09 | TennesseeTitans @ StLouisRams Dog Group 7 Home Team St.LouisRams 0 0 L -4.070 4.070 22.7 W Team Actual Score Total W/L Strength Comp. SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_09 | SanDiegoChargers @ WashingtonRedskins Fav Group 4 Visiting Team SanDiegoChargers 0 0 L 2.825 -2.825 21.6 43.7 0.5 0.2 L Under Week_09 | SanDiegoChargers @ WashingtonRedskins Dog Group 5 Home Team WashingtonRedskins 0 0 L -2.825 2.825 22.1 W Team Actual Score Total W/L Strength Comp. SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_09 | PhiladelphiaEagles @ OaklandRaiders Fav Group 4 Visiting Team PhiladelphiaEagles 0 0 L 7.049 -7.049 23.2 44.7 -1.6 0.8 W Over Week_09 | PhiladelphiaEagles @ OaklandRaiders Dog Group 6 Home Team OaklandRaiders 0 0 L -7.049 7.049 21.5 L Team Actual Score Total W/L Strength Comp. SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_09 | TampaBayBuccaneers @ SeattleSeahawks Dog Group 8 Visiting Team TampaBayBuccaneers 0 0 L -20.773 20.773 18.2 45.1 -7.7 12.1 TampaBayBuccaneers L Over Week_09 | TampaBayBuccaneers @ SeattleSeahawks Fav Group 1 Home Team SeattleSeahawks 0 0 L 20.773 -20.773 26.9 W Team Actual Score Total W/L Strength Comp. SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_09 | BaltimoreRavens @ ClevelandBrowns Fav Group 5 Visiting Team BaltimoreRavens 0 0 L 5.925 -5.925 22.1 44.3 2.6 2.6 ClevelandBrowns L Over Week_09 | BaltimoreRavens @ ClevelandBrowns Dog Group 7 Home Team ClevelandBrowns 0 0 L -5.925 5.925 22.2 W Team Actual Score Total W/L Strength Comp. SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_09 | PittsburghSteelers @ NewEnglandPatriots Dog Group 8 Visiting Team PittsburghSteelers 0 0 L -13.722 13.722 15.9 45.0 6.2 0.4 NewEnglandPatriots L Over Week_09 | PittsburghSteelers @ NewEnglandPatriots Fav Group 4 Home Team NewEnglandPatriots 0 0 L 13.722 -13.722 29.1 W Team Actual Score Total W/L Strength Comp. SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_09 | IndianapolisColts @ HoustonTexans Fav Group 3 Visiting Team IndianapolisColts 0 0 L 16.270 -16.270 28.8 46.9 -8.3 2.9 IndianapolisColts W Over Week_09 | IndianapolisColts @ HoustonTexans Dog Group 8 Home Team HoustonTexans 0 0 L -16.270 16.270 18.1 L Team Actual Score Total W/L Strength Comp. SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_09 | ChicagoBears @ GreenBayPackers Dog Group 3 Visiting Team ChicagoBears 0 0 L -4.349 4.349 18.4 45.0 -2.3 6.4 ChicagoBears L Under Week_09 | ChicagoBears @ GreenBayPackers Fav Group 1 Home Team GreenBayPackers 0 0 L 4.349 -4.349 26.6 W -2.8
Really not sure about the Min vs Dal game as was the system, as this was the only game that the system was at odds with in terms of the forecast and group being on opposite sides.
Here are my early bets for week 9
6 Team Teaser CINCINNATI +3½ CAROLINA -1½ NEW ORLEANS +1 KANSAS CITY +3 CLEVELAND +8½ INDIANAPOLIS +3½ 4 Team Teaser CINCINNATI +3½ NEW ORLEANS +1 ST. LOUIS +9 KANSAS CITY +3 4 Team Teaser TAMPA BAY +22½ CLEVELAND +8½ NEW ENGLAND -1 INDIANAPOLIS +3½ 4 Team Parlay CINCINNATI -2½ CAROLINA -7½ NEW ORLEANS -5 KANSAS CITY -3 Straight Bet CINCINNATI -2½ CAROLINA -7½ NEW ORLEANS -5 ST. LOUIS +3 KANSAS CITY -3 WASHINGTON PK TAMPA BAY +16½ CLEVELAND +2½ NEW ENGLAND -7. INDIANAPOLIS -2½ CHICAGO +10½ TOTAL o42½ (CINCINNATI vrs MIAMI) TOTAL u44 (ATLANTA vrs CAROLINA) TOTAL o39½ (TENNESSEE vrs ST. LOUIS) TOTAL o40½ (KANSAS CITY vrs BUFFALO) TOTAL o41 (BALTIMORE vrs CLEVELAND) TOTAL u44 (PITTSBURGH vrs NEW ENGLAND) TOTAL o44½ (INDIANAPOLIS vrs HOUSTON) TOTAL u49½ (CHICAGO vrs GREEN BAY)
Good luck everyone.Comment -
ny92mikeSBR High Roller
- 11-26-12
- 230
#81I've thought the same for a while but it's way too premature. Mike is still refining it and it needs the work. Too small of a sample size also, needs at least the rest of this NFL season before scaling it to a full NBA season.
Very promising though which is why I'm watching it closely and rooting for it to succeed.
Thanks man, I'm really hoping that it picks up on the back end of this season. I'm ahead but I really wish it would start producing a higher ATS win percentage.
As you said, I'm still refining and hopefully I can figure out a way to incorporate a couple more variables within the system to improve the numbers.
I'm asking but no one seems to be answering, so I'll ask you. Is there something you guys are seeing with this system that makes you believe it would be a tool for NBA? Perhaps I'm not seeing it because I don't watch NBA.Comment -
charlieg70SBR Rookie
- 01-08-12
- 24
#82Keep pounding it Mike!Comment -
ny92mikeSBR High Roller
- 11-26-12
- 230
#84Site help
Does anyone have a non-pay site that list the quarterly scores and spreads for each game, as well as line movements?
Trying to add in quarter/ half plays and would like to determine how the lines are moving within my system.
Thanks in advance.Comment -
djmanoSBR High Roller
- 04-30-12
- 209
#85hey ny92mike, under your results when it says combo is that you record for parlays/teasers?Comment -
ny92mikeSBR High Roller
- 11-26-12
- 230
#86
ThanksComment -
ny92mikeSBR High Roller
- 11-26-12
- 230
#87That hurt. Teasers are still going but straight bets and parlays killed me.
Sorry guys.Comment -
ny92mikeSBR High Roller
- 11-26-12
- 230
#88Betting the teasers and parlays didn't do me much good, curse NO and BAL. With that said the system is pulling in some winners. Will have totals Monday night.
Taking the winning today and putting it on Indy. Trying to get back the losses on the teasers. Still have one pending so we'll see how it plays out tonight.
GLComment -
ny92mikeSBR High Roller
- 11-26-12
- 230
#89Betting the teasers and parlays didn't do me much good, curse NO and BAL. With that said the system is pulling in some winners. Will have totals Monday night.
Taking the winning today and putting it on Indy. Trying to get back the losses on the teasers. Still have one pending so we'll see how it plays out tonight.
GL
This week the formula was strong, still another game to go but to date things are in the 75% plus with the exception of Over/ Under projections, which hit 58%.Comment -
ny92mikeSBR High Roller
- 11-26-12
- 230
#90Week 9 Results
Great week for the system.
Week 9 Results Games Games Played Wins Loss Win % Straight Up 13 9 4 69% Over/ Under 13 8 5 62% ATS 13 10 3 77% ATS w/ Probability 9 7 2 78% ATS w/ STD 2 2 0 100% Score Probability 2 2 0 100% Combo 9 7 2 78%
Year to Date ResultsGames Games Played Wins Loss Win % Straight Up 114 67 47 59% Over/ Under 114 63 51 55% ATS 112 62 50 55% ATS w/ Probability 52 26 26 50% ATS w/ STD 32 19 13 59% Score Probability 15 10 5 67% Combo 18 11 7 61% Comment -
Mako-SBRSBR Sharp
- 10-15-13
- 492
#91That's great Mike, the ATS numbers are really climbing. Good work.Comment -
ny92mikeSBR High Roller
- 11-26-12
- 230
#92Comment -
ny92mikeSBR High Roller
- 11-26-12
- 230
#93Week 10 forcast
Couple things. I'd stay away from the Packers game due to the injury of Rogers. I'd also not buy into the oakland vs giants. Very small SCN associated with this game, and they system is still viewing the Giants as a bottom feeder. Perhaps they are but they are winning games.
Outside of that, lets have some fun.
Weekly Schedule Visitor Spread Over / Under Against the Spread ATS Probability STD Straight Up Over /Under Proj. Score Probability SCN Combo Week_10 | WashingtonRedskins @ MinnesotaVikings -2.0 49.5 WashingtonRedskins 58% 3.6 WashingtonRedskins Under -16.5 Week_10 | SeattleSeahawks @ AtlantaFalcons -6.0 44.5 SeattleSeahawks 0% 1.0 SeattleSeahawks Over Bet -31.4 Week_10 | DetroitLions @ ChicagoBears 0.0 0.0 ChicagoBears Over 4.6 Bet Week_10 | StLouisRams @ IndianapolisColts 9.0 44.0 IndianapolisColts 33% 2.8 IndianapolisColts Under 24.3 Bet Week_10 | PhiladelphiaEagles @ GreenBayPackers 1.5 46.5 GreenBayPackers 50% 3.3 GreenBayPackers Under 6.6 Bet Week_10 | OaklandRaiders @ NewYorkGiants 7.0 43.5 OaklandRaiders 92% 6.5 NewYorkGiants Over -3.8 Bet Week_10 | JacksonvilleJaguars @ TennesseeTitans 11.5 41.5 JacksonvilleJaguars 100% 6.6 TennesseeTitans Over Bet 15.1 Bet Week_10 | BuffaloBills @ PittsburghSteelers 3.0 43.5 BuffaloBills 67% 3.9 BuffaloBills Over Bet -7.2 Bet Week_10 | CincinnatiBengals @ BaltimoreRavens -1.5 44.0 BaltimoreRavens 25% 1.8 BaltimoreRavens Over -5.6 Bet Week_10 | CarolinaPanthers @ SanFrancisco49ers 6.0 42.5 CarolinaPanthers 75% 5.6 CarolinaPanthers Over -4.2 Bet Week_10 | HoustonTexans @ ArizonaCardinals 3.0 41.0 ArizonaCardinals 17% 1.4 ArizonaCardinals Over Bet 7.0 Bet Week_10 | DenverBroncos @ SanDiegoChargers -6.5 57.0 DenverBroncos 42% 2.9 DenverBroncos Under -12.3 Week_10 | DallasCowboys @ NewOrleansSaints 6.5 53.0 DallasCowboys 83% 6.3 DallasCowboys Under -2.8 Bet Week_10 | MiamiDolphins @ TampaBayBuccaneers -2.5 41.0 TampaBayBuccaneers 8% 1.4 MiamiDolphins Over -7.2 Bet 4.6 4.6 Team SCN Score Probability % Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_10 | WashingtonRedskins @ MinnesotaVikings Fav Group 4 Visiting Team WashingtonRedskins -16.503 27.2% 28.9 46.6 -9.3 3.6 WashingtonRedskins W Under Week_10 | WashingtonRedskins @ MinnesotaVikings Dog Group 7 Home Team MinnesotaVikings 16.503 18.1% 17.6 L Team SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_10 | SeattleSeahawks @ AtlantaFalcons Fav Group 1 Visiting Team SeattleSeahawks -31.426 60.6% 31.1 48.3 -7.9 1.0 SeattleSeahawks W Over Week_10 | SeattleSeahawks @ AtlantaFalcons Dog Group 6 Home Team AtlantaFalcons 31.426 51.5% 17.2 L Team SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_10 | DetroitLions @ ChicagoBears Fav Group 3 Visiting Team DetroitLions 4.645 30.3% 18.1 44.7 8.4 4.2 L Over Week_10 | DetroitLions @ ChicagoBears Dog Group 2 Home Team ChicagoBears -4.645 54.5% 26.6 W Team SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_10 | StLouisRams @ IndianapolisColts Dog Group 7 Visiting Team St.LouisRams 24.280 45.4% 14.7 41.8 3.4 2.8 IndianapolisColts L Under Week_10 | StLouisRams @ IndianapolisColts Fav Group 4 Home Team IndianapolisColts -24.280 42.4% 27.1 W Team SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_10 | PhiladelphiaEagles @ GreenBayPackers Dog Group 3 Visiting Team PhiladelphiaEagles 6.618 6.0% 17.4 44.3 8.0 3.3 GreenBayPackers L Under Week_10 | PhiladelphiaEagles @ GreenBayPackers Fav Group 2 Home Team GreenBayPackers -6.618 72.7% 26.9 W Team SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_10 | OaklandRaiders @ NewYorkGiants Dog Group 7 Visiting Team OaklandRaiders -3.790 87.8% 21.7 44.4 -6.0 6.5 OaklandRaiders L Over Week_10 | OaklandRaiders @ NewYorkGiants Fav Group 8 Home Team NewYorkGiants 3.790 21.2% 22.7 W Team SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_10 | JacksonvilleJaguars @ TennesseeTitans Dog Group 8 Visiting Team JacksonvilleJaguars 15.139 66.6% 18.2 46.2 -1.8 6.6 JacksonvilleJaguars L Over Week_10 | JacksonvilleJaguars @ TennesseeTitans Fav Group 5 Home Team TennesseeTitans -15.139 81.8% 28.0 W Team SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_10 | BuffaloBills @ PittsburghSteelers Dog Group 6 Visiting Team BuffaloBills -7.217 93.9% 23.3 44.7 -4.9 3.9 BuffaloBills W Over Week_10 | BuffaloBills @ PittsburghSteelers Fav Group 8 Home Team PittsburghSteelers 7.217 69.6% 21.4 L Team SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_10 | CincinnatiBengals @ BaltimoreRavens Fav Group 4 Visiting Team CincinnatiBengals -5.576 9.0% 21.5 43.7 2.1 1.8 BaltimoreRavens L Under Week_10 | CincinnatiBengals @ BaltimoreRavens Dog Group 5 Home Team BaltimoreRavens 5.576 90.9% 22.1 W Team SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_10 | CarolinaPanthers @ SanFrancisco49ers Dog Group 1 Visiting Team CarolinaPanthers -4.185 33.3% 21.8 44.4 -5.2 5.6 CarolinaPanthers L Over Week_10 | CarolinaPanthers @ SanFrancisco49ers Fav Group 3 Home Team SanFrancisco49ers 4.185 15.1% 22.6 W Team SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_10 | HoustonTexans @ ArizonaCardinals Dog Group 7 Visiting Team HoustonTexans 6.954 57.5% 17.2 43.3 5.9 1.4 ArizonaCardinals L Over Week_10 | HoustonTexans @ ArizonaCardinals Fav Group 5 Home Team ArizonaCardinals -6.954 63.6% 26.1 W Team SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_10 | DenverBroncos @ SanDiegoChargers Fav Group 1 Visiting Team DenverBroncos -12.323 3.0% 24.8 42.5 -0.6 2.9 DenverBroncos W Under Week_10 | DenverBroncos @ SanDiegoChargers Dog Group 4 Home Team SanDiegoChargers 12.323 84.8% 17.7 L Team SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_10 | DallasCowboys @ NewOrleansSaints Dog Group 1 Visiting Team DallasCowboys -2.810 36.3% 21.6 43.7 -6.0 6.3 DallasCowboys L Under Week_10 | DallasCowboys @ NewOrleansSaints Fav Group 3 Home Team NewOrleansSaints 2.810 78.7% 22.1 W Team SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_10 | MiamiDolphins @ TampaBayBuccaneers Fav Group 5 Visiting Team MiamiDolphins -7.248 96.9% 23.6 44.9 0.3 1.4 TampaBayBuccaneers W Over Week_10 | MiamiDolphins @ TampaBayBuccaneers Dog Group 8 Home Team TampaBayBuccaneers 7.248 39.3% 21.4 L
Good luck everyone.
I'll post my bets later this week, dog tired.Comment -
Mako-SBRSBR Sharp
- 10-15-13
- 492
#94Wow, some smaller leans that I had prior to you posting turned out to be stronger than I thought...nice.Comment -
ny92mikeSBR High Roller
- 11-26-12
- 230
#96Picks for the week. Changed it up a bit going to start making small parlay bets see where it gets me.
PARLAY (2 TEAMS) JACKSONVILLE +11½-110 N.Y. GIANTS -7-120 PARLAY (2 TEAMS) CAROLINA +6-110 DALLAS +6½-110 PARLAY (2 TEAMS) WASHINGTON -2-110 SEATTLE -6-110 PARLAY (2 TEAMS) GREEN BAY -1½-110 INDIANAPOLIS -9-110 PARLAY (2 TEAMS) BUFFALO +3-101 BALTIMORE +1½-110 PARLAY (2 TEAMS) ARIZONA -3EV DENVER -6½-115 PARLAY (2 TEAMS) TOTAL o41-110 (MIAMI vrs TAMPA BAY) TAMPA BAY +2½-105 4 team teaser WASHINGTON +4-110 JACKSONVILLE +17½-110 N.Y. GIANTS -1-120 INDIANAPOLIS -3-110 6 team teaser WASHINGTON +4-110 PHILADELPHIA +7½-110 BUFFALO +9-101 N.Y. GIANTS -1-120 SEATTLE PK-110 BALTIMORE +7½-110 4 team teaser CAROLINA +12-110 ARIZONA +3EV DENVER -½-115 DALLAS +12½-110 8 team teaser WASHINGTON +4-110 BUFFALO +9-101 N.Y. GIANTS -1-120 INDIANAPOLIS -3-110 SEATTLE PK-110 BALTIMORE +7½-110 DENVER -½-115 DALLAS +12½-110 STRAIGHT BET ARIZONA -3EV BALTIMORE +1½-110 BUFFALO +3-101 CAROLINA +6-110 DALLAS +6½-110 DENVER -6½-115 GREEN BAY -1½-110 INDIANAPOLIS -9-110 JACKSONVILLE +11½-110 N.Y. GIANTS -7-120 SEATTLE -6-110 TAMPA BAY +2½-105 WASHINGTON -2-110
GL everyone.Comment -
Mako-SBRSBR Sharp
- 10-15-13
- 492
#97I look at the sides, and Dallas was the first to pop out. It's a game that for most bettors is radioactive, especially with the Saints coming off a road loss and going back to the dome while Dallas squeeked out a win against Minnesota (and thus are due for their yo-yo bullshit win one lose one cycle).
Yet it's also not a great play for New Orleans because of the heavy points, combined with 4th quarter dramatics that Dallas always seems to be engaged in (both good AND bad) that could erase a NO cover with just seconds remaining.
Carolina's numbers are a surprise the other way, I had SF pegged to cover there and took them earlier in the week at -5.5. The whole "home team coming off a bye and getting solid players back" routine always appeals to me.
Just saw your picks Mike, smaller parlays are definitely the way to go. Too many variables to in the NFL to do more than 2-teamers unless it's a tease, no matter how good the system is.Comment -
ny92mikeSBR High Roller
- 11-26-12
- 230
#98Really like the dallas pick for the same reasons you mentioned.
Hoping the system holds out on Carolina.
Thanks for the betting advise on parlays its been my nemesis for years I win a small one then I start going for 4 teamers which kills me.Comment -
ny92mikeSBR High Roller
- 11-26-12
- 230
#99I'm freaking cursed on Thursday night fb.
One game just took a huge dump on several teaser bets.Comment -
Mako-SBRSBR Sharp
- 10-15-13
- 492
#100TNF is a pain in the ass, I got lucky and went 2-1 tonight winning on the Baylor/under and Baylor to win at -15, but losing on the TNF game having the under.
Pathetic defenses rolled up 31 points by halftime alone...Comment -
ny92mikeSBR High Roller
- 11-26-12
- 230
#101Here's to hoping for a better sunday....
Jesus all they needed was like 6 yards and the teasers would of held.
In staying positive it was nice to see the system picked right on at least one side of the game.Comment -
ny92mikeSBR High Roller
- 11-26-12
- 230
#102System hasn't done terrible this week but my bets sure have.
Dallas needs to turn this around and score some points.
Comment -
ny92mikeSBR High Roller
- 11-26-12
- 230
#103Week 10 Results
Basically broke even this week, had a lot of small bets on two team parlays and teasers that I missed on the bulk of those, straight up wasn't bad though.
Week 10 Results Games Games Played Wins Loss Win % Straight Up 13 6 7 46% Over/ Under 13 6 7 46% ATS 13 7 6 54% ATS w/ Probability 4 3 1 75% ATS w/ STD 2 2 0 100% Score Probability 4 2 2 50% Combo 10 5 5 50% Year to Date Results Games Games Played Wins Loss Win % Straight Up 127 73 54 57% Over/ Under 127 69 58 54% ATS 125 69 56 55% ATS w/ Probability 56 29 27 52% ATS w/ STD 34 21 13 62% Score Probability 19 12 7 63% Combo 28 16 12 57% Comment -
ny92mikeSBR High Roller
- 11-26-12
- 230
#104Week 11 Projections
Weekly Schedule Visitor Spread Over / Under Against the Spread ATS Probability STD Straight Up Over /Under Proj. Score Probability SCN Combo Week_11 | IndianapolisColts @ TennesseeTitans -3.0 41.5 TennesseeTitans 79% 3.5 TennesseeTitans Over -3.7 Bet Week_11 | NewYorkJets @ BuffaloBills 1.5 40.5 BuffaloBills 57% 2.6 BuffaloBills Over 4.2 Bet Week_11 | BaltimoreRavens @ ChicagoBears 3.0 46.5 ChicagoBears 21% 1.3 ChicagoBears Under Bet 20.5 Bet Week_11 | ClevelandBrowns @ CincinnatiBengals 5.5 41.5 CincinnatiBengals 0% 0.4 CincinnatiBengals Over 19.6 Bet Week_11 | OaklandRaiders @ HoustonTexans 7.0 42.5 OaklandRaiders 93% 6.5 HoustonTexans Over Bet -4.1 Bet Week_11 | ArizonaCardinals @ JacksonvilleJaguars -6.5 41.0 ArizonaCardinals 43% 2.4 ArizonaCardinals Over Bet -13.8 Week_11 | SanDiegoChargers @ MiamiDolphins -1.5 45.5 MiamiDolphins 36% 1.6 SanDiegoChargers Under Bet -5.7 Bet Week_11 | WashingtonRedskins @ PhiladelphiaEagles 3.5 52.5 PhiladelphiaEagles 7% 0.6 PhiladelphiaEagles Under 4.0 Bet Week_11 | DetroitLions @ PittsburghSteelers -1.5 47.5 DetroitLions 64% 2.7 DetroitLions Under -13.8 Week_11 | AtlantaFalcons @ TampaBayBuccaneers -2.0 43.0 TampaBayBuccaneers 50% 2.5 AtlantaFalcons Over -3.3 Bet Week_11 | KansasCityChiefs @ DenverBroncos 8.0 49.5 DenverBroncos 71% 3.3 DenverBroncos Under 5.8 Week_11 | SanFrancisco49ers @ NewOrleansSaints 3.0 47.5 NewOrleansSaints 29% 1.6 NewOrleansSaints Under 6.9 Bet Week_11 | MinnesotaVikings @ SeattleSeahawks 12.0 46.0 SeattleSeahawks 86% 5.2 SeattleSeahawks Under 12.1 Week_11 | GreenBayPackers @ NewYorkGiants 6.0 42.5 GreenBayPackers 100% 10.3 GreenBayPackers Over -15.5 Bet Week_11 | NewEnglandPatriots @ CarolinaPanthers 2.5 45.5 CarolinaPanthers 14% 0.9 CarolinaPanthers Under 1.6 Bet #N/A
Team SCN Score Probability % Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_11 | IndianapolisColts @ TennesseeTitans Fav Group 4 Visiting Team IndianapolisColts -3.746 18.1% 21.7 44.4 4.0 3.5 TennesseeTitans L Over Week_11 | IndianapolisColts @ TennesseeTitans Dog Group 5 Home Team TennesseeTitans 3.746 81.8% 22.7 W Team SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_11 | NewYorkJets @ BuffaloBills Dog Group 7 Visiting Team NewYorkJets 4.190 27.2% 18.3 44.8 6.7 2.6 BuffaloBills L Over Week_11 | NewYorkJets @ BuffaloBills Fav Group 6 Home Team BuffaloBills -4.190 90.9% 26.5 W Team SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_11 | BaltimoreRavens @ ChicagoBears Dog Group 5 Visiting Team BaltimoreRavens 20.518 87.8% 18.7 46.2 5.7 1.3 ChicagoBears L Under Week_11 | BaltimoreRavens @ ChicagoBears Fav Group 2 Home Team ChicagoBears -20.518 57.5% 27.4 W Team SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_11 | ClevelandBrowns @ CincinnatiBengals Dog Group 7 Visiting Team ClevelandBrowns 19.567 54.5% 18.3 46.8 4.6 0.4 CincinnatiBengals L Over Week_11 | ClevelandBrowns @ CincinnatiBengals Fav Group 4 Home Team CincinnatiBengals -19.567 9.0% 28.5 W Team SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_11 | OaklandRaiders @ HoustonTexans Dog Group 7 Visiting Team OaklandRaiders -4.125 93.9% 21.7 44.4 -6.0 6.5 OaklandRaiders L Over Week_11 | OaklandRaiders @ HoustonTexans Fav Group 8 Home Team HoustonTexans 4.125 63.6% 22.7 W Team SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_11 | ArizonaCardinals @ JacksonvilleJaguars Fav Group 5 Visiting Team ArizonaCardinals -13.815 72.7% 27.1 46.0 -1.7 2.4 ArizonaCardinals W Over Week_11 | ArizonaCardinals @ JacksonvilleJaguars Dog Group 8 Home Team JacksonvilleJaguars 13.815 69.6% 18.9 L Team SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_11 | SanDiegoChargers @ MiamiDolphins Fav Group 4 Visiting Team SanDiegoChargers -5.709 84.8% 22.1 44.5 1.8 1.6 MiamiDolphins L Under Week_11 | SanDiegoChargers @ MiamiDolphins Dog Group 6 Home Team MiamiDolphins 5.709 96.9% 22.4 W Team SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_11 | WashingtonRedskins @ PhiladelphiaEagles Dog Group 4 Visiting Team WashingtonRedskins 4.013 39.3% 18.3 44.7 4.6 0.6 PhiladelphiaEagles L Under Week_11 | WashingtonRedskins @ PhiladelphiaEagles Fav Group 3 Home Team PhiladelphiaEagles -4.013 6.0% 26.4 W Team SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_11 | DetroitLions @ PittsburghSteelers Fav Group 3 Visiting Team DetroitLions -13.752 42.4% 27.2 46.0 -6.9 2.7 DetroitLions W Under Week_11 | DetroitLions @ PittsburghSteelers Dog Group 7 Home Team PittsburghSteelers 13.752 75.7% 18.8 L Team SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_11 | AtlantaFalcons @ TampaBayBuccaneers Fav Group 6 Visiting Team AtlantaFalcons -3.299 51.5% 21.2 43.4 3.0 2.5 TampaBayBuccaneers L Over Week_11 | AtlantaFalcons @ TampaBayBuccaneers Dog Group 8 Home Team TampaBayBuccaneers 3.299 48.4% 22.2 W Team SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_11 | KansasCityChiefs @ DenverBroncos Dog Group 2 Visiting Team KansasCityChiefs 5.800 78.7% 17.7 44.8 1.3 3.3 DenverBroncos L Under Week_11 | KansasCityChiefs @ DenverBroncos Fav Group 1 Home Team DenverBroncos -5.800 3.0% 27.1 W Team SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_11 | SanFrancisco49ers @ NewOrleansSaints Dog Group 3 Visiting Team SanFrancisco49ers 6.915 15.1% 17.2 43.6 6.2 1.6 NewOrleansSaints L Under Week_11 | SanFrancisco49ers @ NewOrleansSaints Fav Group 1 Home Team NewOrleansSaints -6.915 30.3% 26.4 W Team SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_11 | MinnesotaVikings @ SeattleSeahawks Dog Group 6 Visiting Team MinnesotaVikings 12.054 24.2% 15.1 43.9 1.6 5.2 SeattleSeahawks L Under Week_11 | MinnesotaVikings @ SeattleSeahawks Fav Group 1 Home Team SeattleSeahawks -12.054 60.6% 28.7 W Team SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_11 | GreenBayPackers @ NewYorkGiants Dog Group 2 Visiting Team GreenBayPackers -15.532 66.6% 27.3 45.9 -14.6 10.3 GreenBayPackers W Over Week_11 | GreenBayPackers @ NewYorkGiants Fav Group 8 Home Team NewYorkGiants 15.532 36.3% 18.6 L Team SCN Avg. Score Avg. Total Avg. Spread STD P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_11 | NewEnglandPatriots @ CarolinaPanthers Dog Group 2 Visiting Team NewEnglandPatriots 1.571 12.1% 18.6 44.1 4.3 0.9 CarolinaPanthers L Under Week_11 | NewEnglandPatriots @ CarolinaPanthers Fav Group 1 Home Team CarolinaPanthers -1.571 33.3% 25.4 W Comment -
legend210SBR Rookie
- 10-13-13
- 43
#105Right Mike I might be being bloody stupid here but firstly what is ATS/w probability and secondly how do I work out those selections. Apologies if this is obvious but any help would be much appreciated.Comment
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