I've actually thought about it. I guess I don't need to. The numbers are just in front of my face so . . . .
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3-1 so far in week 6. Grinder, don't let this go to your head, but you are the man! I still don't really get how Denver has been able to completely blow out almost everyone, especially at home, and then somehow they "only" win by 16 when they have won by much more against better teams. Logically, in some ways, it doesn't make intuitive sense. And then the steelers somehow get their first win of the season, when it seemed like a win might never come at all this season. I guess those "bad" teams are still professional NFL teams, and maybe past scoreboards aren't really an efficient indicator of actual performance? Maybe Peyton Manning has been getting somewhat lucky and due for some regression at some point?Comment -
Oh, and I like seeing long-term records. Post it. The more information the better. Also does this system work for other sports. NBA? Where is a good place to check ATS records? All the places I have found give total ATS records (season-to-date) and I have to go back through each game to see if they are on a streak or not. What is the easy place to check this info?Comment -
thanks for the jags win grinder
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SourCereal - best place for PAST is the Marc Lawrance Playbook - it's the only think I buy every year. Some goofy stats but some good tidbits - seriously - Bet the Packers in EVERY condition under McCarthy! Online you are looking for Game Logs - I know in MLB there is a great place but not sure NFL.
EXACTLY!!! Look at the Denver game - if this was a game against a good team they might win by 50 - BUT - Jax does not want to be embarrassed and Denver maybe without knowing it slacked off a tiny bit! I believe this system works on psychology as opposed to the actual yards and points! Back door covers and so forth.I guess those "bad" teams are still professional NFL teams
My theory which is open to discussion.Remember - on average the margin of victory or loss ATS always has pressure to get back to 0.
A perfect line for a linemaker would have 50% betting one side and 50% the other. When one team is outperforming the public starts to bend the rules a little. So the point spreads have to be tweaked to get that 50/50 ratio. The REAL line for Den/Jax was probably more like 22 but then no one would bet Jax at all.
In a perfect world all teams would be 8-8 ATS which SHOULD end up about 0 (in theory). The standard deviation for a team is about +/-4 for a year. Teams like KC are crushing the spread and teams like the Steelers are getting crushed. The tide will catch up sooner or later as Joe Bozo gambler jumps on or off the bandwagon.
Coach Potato LOL - I'm glad you played it and I know how you feel when you placed the bet. Just wait. There will be games that look HORRIBLE, you friends will laugh at you and they you will lose by 50 and have public humiliation.
MAYBE an "A" game next week - I doubt it but . . . .
Don't forget tonight game AND look forward to next Thursday's game which REALLY should be good.Comment -
do you have a play tonight Grinder?Comment -
The SD win last night blew our chances of betting on Denver Sunday night vs. Indy.
Looking like 6 games next week.
7-4 now.63.63%Comment -
BridgeJumper Week 4 (7-4 8-5 in all games including non-posted "D" games)
"C" games 22 years 363-292 55.42% 6-3 this year
"B" games 22 years 120-70 63.16% 1-1 this year
ALL home favs 109-61 but that includes the "A" games which are ONLY home favs
Typically the best week of the season ( 58-35 - 62.37%) followed by next week the worst week.
"C" Houston AD+6 (91-77 54.17% 0-2 this year)
"C" Jacksonville HD+7.5 (37-28 56.92% 1-1 this year)
"C" Philly HF-3 yuck!! (43-35 55.13% 1-0 this year)
"C" St. Louis AD+6 (91-77 54.17% 0-2 this year)
"B" Tennessee HD+4 (33-19 63.46%)
"C" Pittsburgh HF-2.5 (43-35 55.13% 1-0 this year)
"C" NY Giants HF-3 (43-35 55.13% 1-0 this year)
I think that is all of them!!Comment -
I already had Tennessee as one of my higher unit bets this week at +4.5, good to know that the system is highlighting it.Comment -
Bridge Jumper
Grinder12000,
Wanted to thank you for sharing your selections with the group. Tried to send you a message but didn't have enough posts, so that will have to wait for a different day.
Thanks again,
Boonie26Comment -
Agree with boonie, very cool to see how this is playing out. Looking forward to the first A pick of the season, keep it up Grinder.Comment -
Only had one last year which was disappointing, The last few years the "a" picks have been blow outs.
Lets not not get too cocky here though.Comment -
Thanks GrinderComment -
It's not complicated. In sports, teams play to the level of their competition. Denver doesn't really have to do much to beat jacksonville, so they don't play hard. Course I say this after the fact, I couldn't quite get myself to pull the trigger on JAX.
No, Peyton hasn't been getting lucky. And no, past scoreboards alone will not win you money betting on the NFL.Comment -
Agree. But it wasn't just a typical looking-ahead situation for Denver, there was a Manning pick-6 combined with a fumble and other miscues that sabotaged what would have been a more competitive game ATS if they had executed.
We can blame that lack of execution on the looking-ahead fade of course, but in reality if they play each other 10 times I'd bet Denver covers that insane spread 6-7 times. I had Jacksonville personally and watched Denver LEAP out to a 14-0 lead seemingly instantly in Q1. Then the gremlins reached out and won the bet for me.
Lucky.
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Yes, I think this is documented somewhere, but it's certainly been my experience just eyeballing lines past couple years that teams on an ATS tear will get shaded lines against them, and vice versa - I'd imagine pressure to 8-8 ATS does exist for linesmakers for the reason you stated, and they have the ability to make it happen over time (imperfectly) by shading lines.
Also, your thread title scared me off coming in here for a while.
Also, I do hope and take it you know what a standard deviation is, and were just using that as shorthand for "most of the teams fall within 4 of 8-8 ATS."Comment -
Sounds like we don't actually agree, haha. I'm not saying they're looking ahead (although spose it's likely as well, its separate from the major factor at work here), just able to let their guard down because they know they can just grab 14 more points like they did if they need to get serious. They didn't have to take JAX super-cereal, they aren't playing ATS.Agree. But it wasn't just a typical looking-ahead situation for Denver, there was a Manning pick-6 combined with a fumble and other miscues that sabotaged what would have been a more competitive game ATS if they had executed.
We can blame that lack of execution on the looking-ahead fade of course, but in reality if they play each other 10 times I'd bet Denver covers that insane spread 6-7 times. I had Jacksonville personally and watched Denver LEAP out to a 14-0 lead seemingly instantly in Q1. Then the gremlins reached out and won the bet for me.
Lucky.Comment -
I uses standard deviation to come up with the "4". It was more like 3.7 actually looking back 3 years.
i don't think there is a looking ahead, at least in Bridgejumper. More like hot teams get a little lazy when playing cold teams that are mad and don't want to be embarrassed AGAIN. Add in Average Joe Public who is clueless on what pointspreads actually mean but they know Denver is awesome and Jacksonville sucks....
I've tried this with other sports but never works. Thus I have to think it's not the sport but the people betting on the sport and their ineptness.Comment -
I can hear people jumping off the ship. LOL. Go GiantsComment -
Grinder
Perhaps I'm overlooking it within the thread but I didn't see your picks for last week or this week. I saw the results for week 4.
What week is the following picks
"C" Houston AD+6 (91-77 54.17% 0-2 this year)
"C" Jacksonville HD+7.5 (37-28 56.92% 1-1 this year)
"C" Philly HF-3 yuck!! (43-35 55.13% 1-0 this year)
"C" St. Louis AD+6 (91-77 54.17% 0-2 this year)
"B" Tennessee HD+4 (33-19 63.46%)
"C" Pittsburgh HF-2.5 (43-35 55.13% 1-0 this year)
"C" NY Giants HF-3 (43-35 55.13% 1-0 this year)
Sorry for the confusion.Comment -
Mako is correct - I'll make it clearer this next week so they don't get blended in. Tough week this week but with a win tonight (crossing fingers) we should only be one win short of a good week. wow - that sounding like was trying to make a good thing out of a losing week.
Any bad beat stories from you guys? Everybody will have one (or many) sooner or later.
My worst bad beat was about 10 years ago. I had a hideous day but with one game I could make it only a nightmare and not a wife beater day! I had the Bears and they had a comfortable lead and all they had to do was run out the clock from their opponents 15 yard line with 10 seconds to go. Just kneel.
They ran the ball up the middle, fumbled, the ball popped out and a guy ran it 85 yards to score a meaningless TD.
As Brent Musburger says "In some circles that touchdown meant a lot". My wife said I turned white.
RodMelotte.comComment -
[COLOR=#000000]Thanks man.Originally posted by Those are yesterday's games ,with the exception of the Giants game which is tonight. [/COLOR
The worst bet I made was a 10 team parlay. Only game that got me was a TB vs Washington game where I picked TB to cover the spread, don't recall the spread its been too many years but Tampa just needed to run out the clock, ball was on the 1 or 2 yard line for the skins and that wonderful quarterback named Josh Freeman got a bad snap from the center or something wacky happened and the skins got the ball and marched it in for the winning td.Comment -
Bridgejumper Week 5 (10-8) 55.5% +1.2 units
"B" are a problem this year so far and we have another one. Plus one "C" game that has had problems and one game that is an "F" game so you might want to take the other side if you are looking for action.
This weeks games
"C" Minnesota HD+10.0 22 years at 56.06%, 1-2 this year
"C" NY Giants AD+6.0 22 years at 54.12%, 1-3 this year
"C" TB Bucs HD+5.5 22 years at 55.36%, 1-0 this year
"B" Washington AD+12.5 22 years at 63.74%, 0-1 this year
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Bonus action play - NOT a system play
"F" PLAY San Fran AF-16 (22-17 56.4%)
Inside the system when a bad team is this much of a dog AT HOME their record is 17-22 so if you feel like gambling play San FranComment -
Grinder,
More questions in the effort to understand. Thought you might pass the SF-Jacksonville game since it's being played in London, and no real home team.
Understanding there can be differences with the numbers depending on which pointspreads you use, doesn't Seattle-StLouis fall under the same stuff as SF-Jacksonville?
Thanks for the time,
BoonieComment -
Seattle-StLouis is very very VERY close but there needs to be a larger gap between the two teams. Seattle is not good enough OR St. Louis is not bad enough - remember the Rams beat the spread by 34 points a couple weeks ago. St. Louis has won their 2 of their last 3 and Seattle has lost 2 of their last 3.
London you say? Interesting - I bet Londoners are really pumped to see Jacksonville! I would bet on the team that went over early and not late like Pittsburgh did. Sorry - I don't have a column for London LOL
I would have to think this evens the playing field a little more but . . . who knows.Comment -
Grinder,
The Seattle-St Louis game is probably a good example of the bridgejumper numbers being slightly different depending on where you get your pointspreads. Have used the closers at another site and calculated a number of 6.3 for that game. Have more questions but don't want to be a pest, or put you in a position where you don't want to discuss the issues.
Thanks again,
Boonie26Comment -
I use 6.1 as my cut off. Used USA Today before the internet and now use scores be odds but that is fuzzy also because they use. -115 and so forth. So it's all a quagmire
The game I. Question is at 6.0. And really. It's a C game so it's not a big deal
Feel few to PM meComment -
[QUOTE=Grinder12000;20002882]Bridgejumper Week 5 (10-8) 55.5% +1.2 units
"B" are a problem this year so far and we have another one. Plus one "C" game that has had problems and one game that is an "F" game so you might want to take the other side if you are looking for action
I am still on the ship...I'm all over these plays...TB Buccs losing by 8 at halftime...nailbiter...c'mon go Bucks....this is a great time to let that first win slip in.....
By the way Grinder my very first bet was a couple days ago on Pacers -1.5 over Hawks in NBA...so I guess I am unbeaten at 1-0 lifetime....no bad beat stories yetComment -
OMG Head coach of TB Buccs is terrible...all his players don't like him....Bring Dungy backComment -
Yeah I've stayed away from the C bets, just using the B picks as an add-on to my card if I don't already have the pick that week.
But when the first A pick arrives it will get 2x to 4x the normal bet amount for sure.
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Yea - really the "C" bets are a coin flip - I suggest just using them as information to your normal due diligence. This system is fueled by the "B" amd "A "games (which have been few so far).
I really never know what to expect year in year out.Comment -
deadskins and rg3 played like shit in the second half
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I don't know what other handicappers feel like after losing days but I know I feel guilty. Losing MY money is one thing but helping others lose there's sucks!
On different thought process. I followed Stiflers MLB Chase for a while and got out before it collapsed - HOWEVER - I felt he was onto something and have been working on a system that cuts out those huge losses. The question was not winning but how to stop the big losses early. I think I found a way. I have not gotten through ALL teams yet but I'm looking forward to baseball season in 10 months LOLComment
