Super Bowl Limbo

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  • Bread
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 03-16-08
    • 23726

    #1
    Super Bowl Limbo

    Sunday happens to be my birthday, and the only thing that would make me happier than winning some money, would be if Marilyn Monroe jumped out of a cake and sang “Happy Birthday Mr. Breadident.” Since my initials are JSK, not JFK, I guess I’ll just concentrate on the game.

    The Steelers have been very kind to my wallet in these playoffs. I cashed in both of their wins against the Chargers and Ravens. I also hit them to win the AFC at +165 early in the postseason. I’m locked in on them to win the Super Bowl at +115, which I did once the Giants were eliminated. With that being said, I’m going to leave the 7 points alone. Pittsburgh wins the game, and I make money.

    So that’s it then. Enjoy the game and try not to drink too much. Good luck!

    And if you believe that I’m content leaving it at that for the flippin Super Bowl, then you just don’t know Bread that well. I’m playing several prop bets. For my props to have a chance, I’ll be needing the low scoring game that I’m banking on. 46 points or less for the birthday boy please!

    Total score – Lower!



    Arizona backers have been getting paid in full. After Wild Card Weekend, they were the biggest dog on the board to win it all at +3250. Do I wish that I had a piece of that action now? Yes. Do I think it will cash? Absolutely not. There will be no repeat of the NYG caliber Super Bowl upset. Pittsburgh will win this game. By how much, I’m not sure. The Steeler’s moneyline at -255 should be a safe play.

    The Cardinal’s high-flying offense is going to get roughed up by Pittsburgh’s nasty defense. Their number one passing D is going to make life rough for quarterback Kurt Warner. He may as well pull a “Eugene Robinson” right now and get busted in one of Tampa’s high-profile gentlemens’ clubs for soliciting sex, to avoid the pain that awaits him.
    Lower!



    The Arizona passing party has been going nuts. Larry Fitzgerald has set a new NFL postseason record with 419 receiving yards. Many of those yards can be contributed to Warner just slinging the ball deep and allowing his star target to out-jump his defenders for long gains. The problem is Pittsburgh isn’t going to allow Warner the time to get the ball that far down the field, and Warner isn’t mobile enough to buy that time. Look for Defensive Player of the Year, James Harrison, to pick up a couple sacks. I am more afraid of Troy Polamalu beating my Under with INT returns than I am of Arizona’s passing game.

    On the other side of the ball you have Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh offense. Think of them as your first girl. They’re not that pretty, but they pay for your dinner, which makes them more attractive than they actually are. If not for sports gambling, I would never watch a single minute of this team. Through the magic of sports wagering, the Steelers clock running offense becomes a thing of beauty. When their games go Under, they go way under. The eight times that the Under hit, the average total score of the game was 26. I’m feeling that this game will also be low by quite a bit. I’m even looking at some adjusted lines. At The Greek you can play Under 40.5 (+190) or Under 37.5 (+270). I’ll be on both.

    OK, that’s low enough



    I don’t remember my first birthday and I don’t remember my 21st birthday, but I hope to remember this one as the day that I got paid by the Steelers. Even if I won’t respect her in the morning.
  • Portlander
    SBR Sharp
    • 09-22-08
    • 292

    #2
    Well written up and quite funny...

    I agree about the offense. I would be bored to tears if I didn't have money on the game. When you have money on the the under suddenly the Steeler crawl becomes quite soothing.
    Comment
    • casper
      SBR Hustler
      • 07-13-08
      • 87

      #3
      Bread's writing: Strong Like Ox

      Bread,

      You are the David Halberstam, Richard Ben Cramer, Seymour Hirsch, etc of this forum. Great breakdown. Can anyone see the Steelers scoring more than 24 points? Can anyone see the Cards getting more than 17 or 20 on the Steelers? The Cardinals will become one-dimensional before the Steelers. I wish I had the balls to lay the points but I could see a 24-20 game or 20-17 but no way in hell Steelers lose. Again, great analysis and done with humor to boot.
      Comment
      • Bread
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 03-16-08
        • 23726

        #4
        Thanks fellas. If this game ends up 31-30 AZ, Bread is in big troubles!
        Comment
        • floridagolfer
          SBR MVP
          • 12-19-08
          • 2757

          #5
          There are a lot of good points in the original post, and let me add another one: This game is not being played on a neutral field.

          Steeler fans probably will outnumber Arizona fans by a 2-to-1 margin, and when they start waving those damn towels, that's going to be at least a small psychological boost to Pittsburgh. This has happened a couple of times this year. The Eagles complained about the number of Steeler fans who made the trip to Philadelphia; there was probably an equal number of Steeler fans vs. Bengal fans for the game in Cincinnati; and the Redskins were outwardly PO'd over the tremendous number of Steeler fans who got tickets for the game in D.C.

          No, this isn't going to decide the outcome of the game, but if one team has more of a comfort level than the other, you never know when that might help create a turnover, make the other team just a bit more hesitant, etc.
          Comment
          • andywend
            SBR MVP
            • 05-20-07
            • 4805

            #6
            Its amazing what pre-conceived notions can do to people when they analyze football games.

            People refuse to look past Arizona coming out of the weakest division in NFL history and refuse to give them the credit they are due.

            They beat a red-hot Atlanta Falcons team on wildcard weekend, blew out a quality team in Carolina and then beat a quality Eagles team that dismantled the NY Giants a week earlier.

            If you properly analyze these 2 teams and the way they have performed in the playoffs, Arizona should be the team favored by a touchdown.

            While I realize Arizona looked horrible during the last few weeks of the regular season, they had the division locked up and had absolutely nothing to play for and it certainly showed. However, if you look past those awful last 4 weeks of the regular season, you have a team that was playing quality football early in the season and has played the best football in the playoffs.

            Arizona will win the SuperBowl!!!
            Comment
            • Bread
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 03-16-08
              • 23726

              #7
              Golfer...you are right...any tiny edge..they all add up.

              Andy, of course nothing is set in stone, and I am leaving the door open to a high scoring Arizona win. It could very well happen. But this is gambling, and I'm going to put my money on my strong feeling that Pittsburgh will win and they will win ugly.

              And if not, then there is always a month-long diet of tomato soup to look forward to.
              Comment
              • Willie Bee
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 02-14-06
                • 15726

                #8
                Early birthday greetings and salutations, Bread
                Comment
                • Bread
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 03-16-08
                  • 23726

                  #9
                  Thanks Pally Baby!
                  Comment
                  • Chi_archie
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 07-22-08
                    • 63172

                    #10
                    great stuff
                    Comment
                    • awhitejackson
                      SBR MVP
                      • 11-15-07
                      • 2265

                      #11
                      Good stuff here... I got on Cardinals to win AFC at +2500 for a decent amount...Never in a million years thought it would hit, but it will give me some extra cash for some prop bets
                      Comment
                      • Bread
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 03-16-08
                        • 23726

                        #12
                        Originally posted by awhitejackson
                        Good stuff here... I got on Cardinals to win AFC at +2500 for a decent amount...Never in a million years thought it would hit, but it will give me some extra cash for some prop bets

                        Comment
                        • Chi_archie
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 07-22-08
                          • 63172

                          #13
                          bread what other blogsites/websites do you write freelance for>?
                          Comment
                          • Bread
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 03-16-08
                            • 23726

                            #14


                            that's about it!
                            Comment
                            • Chi_archie
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 07-22-08
                              • 63172

                              #15
                              lol
                              Comment
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