Hate to Say It, But I Like Ravens + the points

[LT Profits]

I am holding off though hoping for a +7 gameday, but I would stll take +6.5

Reason I am somewhat chagrined is that I predicted an all PA Super Bowl, but I could still root for Steelers to win and not cover.

[VBOMBER]

Why do you think the line will continue to move up? What are the %'s currently from sportsinsights if you don't mind sharing?

[ploben]

I am holding off though hoping for a +7 gameday, but I would stll take +6.5

Reason I am somewhat chagrined is that I predicted an all PA Super Bowl, but I could still root for Steelers to win and not cover.

How can you not like BAL this weekend. I can't stand people who still question BAL's D. Sketchy PIT offense just makes this line sweet.

The line might move +.5 to BAL but this will be a 3 pt game one way or another.

[slacker00]

How can you not like BAL this weekend. I can't stand people who still question BAL's D. Sketchy PIT offense just makes this line sweet.

The line might move +.5 to BAL but this will be a 3 pt game one way or another.

Here's your answer:

BALTIMORE RAVENS - Safety Jim Leonhard (1/12, concussion) is probable for
Sunday's AFC Championship against Pittsburgh. Defensive end Terrell Suggs
(1/12, shoulder) is questionable for Sunday's AFC Championship against
Pittsburgh. Cornerback Samari Rolle (1/12, groin) is questionable for
Sunday's AFC Championship against Pittsburgh. Linebacker Antwan Barnes (1/12,
shoulder) is questionable for Sunday's AFC Championship against Pittsburgh.
Wide receiver Marcus Maxwell (12/31, hip) is on injured reserve. Defensive
tackle Lamar Divens (12/10, shoulder) is on injured reserve. Cornerback
Derrick Martin (10/30, shoulder) is on injured reserve. Wide receiver
Demetrius Williams (10/29, Achilles) is on injured reserve. Cornerback Chris
McAlister (11/11, knee) is on injured reserve. Linebacker Tavares Gooden
(10/14, hip) is on injured reserve. Guard Marshall Yanda (10/14, knee) is on
injured reserve. Safety Dawan Landry (11/11, neck) is on injured reserve.
Defensive tackle Kelly Gregg (10/8, knee) is on injured reserve. Tight end
Scott Kuhn (8/26, knee) is on injured reserve. Quarterback Kyle Boller (9/3,
right shoulder) is on injured reserve. Nose tackle Kelly Talavou (8/26,
shoulder) is on injured reserve. Defensive tackle Dwan Edwards (8/26, back)
is on injured reserve. Running back P.J. Daniels (8/11, shoulder) is on
injured reserve. Linebacker Prescott Burgess (8/11, wrist) is on injured
reserve. Tight end Quinn Sypniewski (7/18, knee) is on injured reserve.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS - *Center Justin Hartwig (1/13, knee) is probable for
Sunday's AFC Championship against Baltimore. *Safety Troy Polamalu (1/13,
calf) is probable for Sunday's AFC Championship against Baltimore. Tight end
Jonathan Dekker (8/17, knee) is on injured reserve. Long snapper Greg Warren
(10/28, knee) is on injured reserve. Tackle Marvel Smith (12/23, back) is on
injured reserve. Running back Rashard Mendenhall (10/1, shoulder) is on
injured reserve. Guard Kendall Simmons (10/1, Achilles) is on injured
reserve. Linebacker Arnold Harrison (8/30, knee) is on injured reserve.
Punter Daniel Sepulveda (8/25, knee) is on injured reserve. Quarterback
Charlie Batch (8/30, collarbone) is on injured reserve.

[The General]

Me too. I'll try em SU for a little dibbit and hope for a real good game.

[jackpot269]

I like the +6.5 alot but we will see !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[bypp]

I can completely understand the Baltimore bet, they have made me a lot of money this year no doubt. I also understand the last two games were very close games between Baltimore and Pitt. However, the biggest dealbreaker for me is that Baltimore is playing their 18th straight game without a bye. (Remember their bye week was moved to week two due to Houston being hit by a hurricane). There is no way they can be playing close to 100%, not to mention both a star Cornerback and Defensive End were carted off the game last week in Tennessee, and are still questionable. Should be a good game, but the only thing Pittsburgh has been lacking all season is a productive offense, which I think we've seen has come around last week. Yes, I do realize that was against a low-ranked defense, but maybe Ben almost being seriously injured the last game of the season showed the O-line there is something to be desired with their performance. I don't see how the Steelers don't roll in this position, especially against a rookie QB. Baltimore played well against Tennessee, but 3 turnovers in the redzone and Baltimore's offense still barely squeaked it out. I can understand a bet on either side with 6 points, but surely not the ML. Either way, BOL to you.

[moconnor]

I highly respect your opinion LT

I have followed your plays for a while now and notice that you see some things in teams that aren't apparent to many. You have great insight. That being said I have looked at this game closely and feel that Pitt is the right side and I am curious to hear why you feel the Ravens are the play here.

Here are some of the main reason I like Pitt (in no particular order):

1. They have the better QB
2. They are playing at home (one well known handicapper Dr XXX believes that home field is worth 5.5 points in this round)
3. The Ravens have a rookie QB that is playing on the road against one of the best (if not the best) defense in the league.
4. The Ravens are coming off of a physical war against Tennessee where they were outgained at nearly a 2 to 1 ratio and were showing signs of wear in that game.
5. They are playing their 3rd road game in a row and 18th game without a bye.
6. My database shows that as far back as it goes (1988) the team that wins the Conference Championship game SU is 38-0 ATS in this round. The point being that if you pick the straight up winner in this game you will cover the spread at an unusually high rate.
7. Pitt is the more rested team (div round bye)

I know 6 is a lot of points and these teams have played close games recently but my feeling is that the Steelers simply focus on stopping the run and Flacco will have a very difficult time trying to win this one in the passing game on the road against this defense. It could get ugly late.

I am very much interested in hearing your thoughts or others as well.

[LT Profits]

I am not buying into the "tired" talk, Baltimore's defemse is at least as good as Pittsburgh's, and I actually feel it is slightly better. I don't mind Flacco at QB either because he does exactly what Baltimore needs and asks of him - manage the game and don't turn the ball over and let the defense win the game for them. Even as a rookie, I feel that Flacco is better than Trent Dilfer was when the Ravens won the Super Bowl with a team that had an idenical MO as this one. I am also not concerned about playing in Pittsburgh because the Ravens have proven themselves on the road already, and remember that they took the Steelers to overtime here in the regular season.

Finally, I fully expect a low scoring game, which naturally gives value to any dog getting this many points.

[LT Profits]

Why do you think the line will continue to move up? What are the %'s currently from sportsinsights if you don't mind sharing?

Damn, I just saw that this play flies in the face of RLM.

Baltimore has 66% of the action through nearly 16,000 bets, yet the line has risen from an opener of -5.

[yisman]

I'm taking the Ravens as well, plus the points, but it's going to be tough for them to win considering all their best players are banged up.

Pittsburgh, on the other hand, had a bye, and then coasted to a win over San Diego. They're at full strength.

[peetlui]

I have followed your plays for a while now and notice that you see some things in teams that aren't apparent to many. You have great insight. That being said I have looked at this game closely and feel that Pitt is the right side and I am curious to hear why you feel the Ravens are the play here.

Here are some of the main reason I like Pitt (in no particular order):

1. They have the better QB
2. They are playing at home (one well known handicapper Dr XXX believes that home field is worth 5.5 points in this round)
3. The Ravens have a rookie QB that is playing on the road against one of the best (if not the best) defense in the league.
4. The Ravens are coming off of a physical war against Tennessee where they were outgained at nearly a 2 to 1 ratio and were showing signs of wear in that game.
5. They are playing their 3rd road game in a row and 18th game without a bye.
6. My database shows that as far back as it goes (1988) the team that wins the Conference Championship game SU is 38-0 ATS in this round. The point being that if you pick the straight up winner in this game you will cover the spread at an unusually high rate.
7. Pitt is the more rested team (div round bye)

I know 6 is a lot of points and these teams have played close games recently but my feeling is that the Steelers simply focus on stopping the run and Flacco will have a very difficult time trying to win this one in the passing game on the road against this defense. It could get ugly late.

I am very much interested in hearing your thoughts or others as well.

As for your fifth reason I'd like to point out that the Giants played all four of their playoff games on the road and wound up winning the Superbowl. Don't forget also that the Patriots had the better QB, the better record (18 - 0), and they were favored by 12 points.

[onthewhat]

We love Ravens in teaser plays here

[Slim]

Makes no sense taking +6.5. Pay the 10 cents and buy it to +7.

[ZBOIZ]

The Ravens plus the points and the Ravens will win this game! They are a hot team right now and they're defense is playing lights out

[Portlander]

I like the Ravens. They have been good to me this season, but I cant get sentimental about it. I don't think they can go into Heinz field and hold up for four quarters. I like Flacco, but much of the line are playing hurt. If Pitt's constant blitz starts getting through quickly they have two options. They can run the short pass thing that gets them 5-10 yards at a time, or the run. I think the run gets shut down and the passes start generating TOs in late game.

After that the Ravens will turn into a one dimensional team. The Baltimore defense is the only thing keeping things close at that point, but around the late third quarter they will get tired and Pittsburgh will start laying on the points. Hard to say, tough game, but I think Pittsburgh covers.

[donjuan]

Finally, I fully expect a low scoring game, which naturally gives value to any dog getting this many points.

What makes you think that a low scoring game automatically gives value to an underdog against the spread?

[Shortstop]

Steelers -6

[rm18]

LT said I was crazy when I said Eagles are the best team in the NFL when healthy and then he picks them to the Superbowl?

[therber2]

I have cheared on Ravens so far, but this game will be as tight as a homophobe's ass. I say Baltimore covers at least; I think Flacco has it in him to win the game, and I think his defense can at least stand up to the Steelers.

-Baltimore will probably cover.
-The score will be low
-I'm leaning on Steeler's winning

[slacker00]

As for your fifth reason I'd like to point out that the Giants played all four of their playoff games on the road and wound up winning the Superbowl. Don't forget also that the Patriots had the better QB, the better record (18 - 0), and they were favored by 12 points.

The Giants had a bye week in week 9 of that season. The Ravens haven't had a bye week since week 2 this year. That was the guy's point.

[LT Profits]

LT said I was crazy when I said Eagles are the best team in the NFL when healthy and then he picks them to the Superbowl?

Was this early in the year?

I picked Philly vs. Pitt before the playoffs.

[LT Profits]

Correction, my pick was after the Willd Card round.

[LT Profits]

What makes you think that a low scoring game automatically gives value to an underdog against the spread?

Because in this case, the total is 34 and the spread is 6. So if anyone likes the Under, they almost HAVE to like Baltimore because this does not look like a 24-3 type of game.

[JGILL50]

Man LT i know u cant ignore that line movement seems to be more a lot more money on pit

[Justin7]

Makes no sense taking +6.5. Pay the 10 cents and buy it to +7.

Or +7.5 -130.

[pat venditto]

steelers will win by more than 7.5

[pinnacle212]

Man LT i know u cant ignore that line movement seems to be more a lot more money on pit

What line movement are you talking of.

[rm18]

Was this early in the year?

I picked Philly vs. Pitt before the playoffs.

It was right before the game when the Giants were at Philly and you bet the Giants +3 and won

[rm18]

What line movement are you talking of.

Line opened at 5, but more individuals including myself seem to like the Ravens.

[LT Profits]

It was right before the game when the Giants were at Philly and you bet the Giants +3 and won

OK.

Yes the Giants has the best team IMO at the time, but losing Burress was a bigger bigger blow than many thought. The Giants struggled down the stretch when they became more of a one-dimensional running team, and I thought the Eagles had a great shot last week because they have an excellent run defense.

[LT Profits]

What line movement are you talking of.

RLM.

66% of bets were on Ravens last time I checked, yet line rose from -5 to -6. Yes I normally hate going against RLM plays, but I still think this is too many points.

[ploben]

...The Giants struggled down the stretch when they became more of a one-dimensional running team, and I thought the Eagles had a great shot last week because they have an excellent run defense.

Not to take anything away from the Eagles D, but the Giants play calling was absolutely, positively atrocious. Granted, Eli had to still execute but if you take a look at the plays that were run outside the Eagles 40 then compare them to the plays called inside you will sit there and wonder if they switched offensive coordinators when the Giants got passed the 50.

Congrats to anyone who cashed on PHI but make sure to thank the Giants offensive coordinators.

[mel1970]

Thanks for the useful info

[durito]

Is Samari Rolle playing?

Take a look at how their defense does in recent years when he doesn't play.