Cheme82 official NFL Playoffs Thread

[Cheme82]

Yeah, Baltimore +6 does look tempting. With the Eagles I really don't think they should be laying any points at Arizona, but since you said it was an entertainment bet then I guess it is ok. As usual, I won't make my plays until late in the week as I like to watch line movement and check for injuries, weather, ect. But my early leans are on the dogs.

Good luck.

[Cheme82]

Arizona is starting to get more points as the public pounds Philly. I'll probably wait just before game time to play this one as the ML is also going to get better on the dog.

As far as Baltimore, the public is hammering on the two field goals they are getting. This line actually opened at 5, it quickly moved to 6 even though most people are on Baltimore and it has stayed there. I really don't see it moving from there even though the Baltimore money keeps coming in, and that is scary considering I had an early lean on Baltimore.

Will keep checking to see what happens.

[Cheme82]

For today's games I finally decided to go with the home teams.

Baltimore has been playing great football, but I think this is it for them. It will be a defensive struggle but in the end, Pitt has a QB that will make the plays needed to win this one. Baltimore doesn't trust Flacco as much as they should because the kid has been playing great, and ultimately that will cost them the game today. Baltimore will fall behind and will have no way of catching up. I truly see Pitt winning by double digits.

Arizona should not be getting points at home. That stadium gives Arizona a big advantage, Warner and his WR's love the fast surface and the fact that it is a dome. Even when the weather is nice, Warner wants it closed. Philly will bring the heat, Warner will have little time to throw, but his receivers are just too good and they'll have to play them 1 on 1 whe they send the dogs. All it takes is 1 play to get burned in Arizona. Westbrook is hurt, he is the most important guy in that offense. Arizona steps it up big time on Defense at home. They still remember that Thanksgiving game. Arizona wins outright.

Pitt -5.5 30
Arizona +4 15
Arizona ML +170 15

Good Luck.

YTD
NFL
49-20-1 348.45
Teasers
2-7-1 -79.5
CFB
50-36 145.35
Teasers
2-4 -23.5
NBA
3-3 -3
CBB
1-1 -3

[MrMonkey]

The more I thought about it this week, placing a bet early on Balt.+6 wasn't too smart. Rolle out, Suggs probably useless?

Might place something on Pitts and the juice will be covered by my Eagles entertainment bet hopefully? Really don't like the Eagles either now, but gotta root them on! Thanks and good luck!

MrMonkey

[Cheme82]

Yeah, that's why I usually don't play early. 95% of my plays are made on game day. But just to be safe you should definitely take Pitt -6 for the same amount and make sure you only lose juice. I would play Pitt for twice what you put on Baltimore as I really see this one getting into double digits. But then again I also saw michigan winning yesterday by DD and look at what happened!

Whatever you do, have fun watching the games.

[slacker00]

Warner and his WR's love the fast surface and the fact that it is a dome. Even when the weather is nice, Warner wants it closed. Philly will bring the heat, Warner will have little time to throw, but his receivers are just too good and they'll have to play them 1 on 1 whe they send the dogs. All it takes is 1 play to get burned in Arizona.

Philly has to have the most stacked secondary in the NFL: Dawkins, Mikell, Samuel, Sheppard all have All-Pro credentials, nevermind that Sheldon Brown is the leading tackler of the corners. If any team in the NFL can match up with Fitzgerald, Boldin, Breaston or whatever package AZ wants to try, the Eagles are the team that can match up. Sure, I still expect Fitz to get extra coverage, but he'll be covered by some of the NFL's best. Combine that with the typical QB pressure that Jim Johnson likes to give and Warner might have a very long day indeed.

[Cougar Bait]

With you on Pittsburgh Cheme...had to take Philly though. I went from playing all dogs at the beginning of the week to all chalk by the end...these were tough ones to cap. GL today!

[Cheme82]

They were indeed, good luck to you too.

[Cheme82]

Philly has to have the most stacked secondary in the NFL: Dawkins, Mikell, Samuel, Sheppard all have All-Pro credentials, nevermind that Sheldon Brown is the leading tackler of the corners. If any team in the NFL can match up with Fitzgerald, Boldin, Breaston or whatever package AZ wants to try, the Eagles are the team that can match up. Sure, I still expect Fitz to get extra coverage, but he'll be covered by some of the NFL's best. Combine that with the typical QB pressure that Jim Johnson likes to give and Warner might have a very long day indeed.

If they had Nnamdi Asomugha covering Fitz I would have probably passed on this game, but as good as those people you mentioned are, neither of them can cover Fitz or Boldin 1 on 1. And I expect Philly to rush about 8 at a time and leave a lone safety to go help whenever either Fitz or Boldin busts one out.

But good luck to you.

[Cheme82]

Man it was hard finding my thread. Lately it seems like everyone has something to say around here
Results last night: 3-0 +70.5

So far in the playoffs: 9-2 +197.5 units.

It's sad to see this great NFL season come to a close, but hey at least I made good money and will start next season with my biggest bankroll ever. Can't wait.

We have 2 weeks to do homework guys, don't jump right in, remember this line is going to be sharp. Be patient, watch line movement, read headlines, do your homework. Buy some squares too, lol.

YTD
NFL
52-20-1 418.95
Teasers
2-7-1 -79.5
CFB
50-36 145.35
Teasers
2-4 -23.5
NBA
3-3 -3
CBB
1-1 -3

[jordan_gt_99]

I just want to know how in the **** are you so good at this NFL shit? So many people lose their ass on this ****ing sport man, it is so hard and yet you are hitting over 70% this year, ****ing amazing .

I have seen some amazing cappers in different sports on this site, but you my friend are the most impressive one, thanks a lot for sharing your knowledge with us mere mortals.

And like the great ones, you actually get better in the playoffs

[Cougar Bait]

Great job Cheme.

[Slick D]

Cheme,

I rarely post (except to bitch) but I feel I gotta say thanks to the best capper on this site. I've been ridin most of your picks since about week 10 and have done REALLY well. (If only I could lay off my own selections, I'd really be up.) Excellent analysis and your track record gives me alot of confidence when I tail you. Thanks again, bro.

[G's pks]

Even though I did well making my own picks in the playoffs 7-3 vs the spread I did not bet all of them and a few lousy side props hurt me. I ended on the plus side up to now waiting for SB... But I noticed you right away when I starting reading sbr in Dec and enjoy your posts. The fact you give your opinion and don't turn it into an insult contest. Great year and congrats!

[Cheme82]

Thanks for all the kind words guys, i appreciate it.

[MrMonkey]

Only lost the juice like we talked about! Thanks Cheme!

MrMonkey

[Cheme82]

You should have bet double on Pitt, would have made you some cash even after the Philly loss. But I'm glad you saved some money bro.

[MeatMan73]

Cheme- I know we are a week away, but we've already waited a wekk and now its time to come on with it! Who ya got in the SuperBowl?

[Cheme82]

So far in the playoffs: 9-2 +197.5 units.

Ok guys, here it comes, my last play of the NFL season. Win or lose, this was a great year in NFL and I have really enjoyed SBR since I joined back in September.

You know how there are great players during the regular season that underperform on the postseason? And there are also players that step it up big time when it matters most. Kurt Warner belongs to the second group.

Here are Kurt Warner's postseason numbers:

Games: 10
Cmp: 230
Att: 360
Yds: 2991
TD's: 23
Int: 12
Y/A: 8.3
Comp %: 63.9
QB Rating: 97.3

Now let's look at Ben Roethlisberger's postseason numbers:

Games: 9
Cmp: 151
Att: 248
Yds: 1983
TD's: 14
Int: 11
Y/A: 8.0
Comp %: 60.9
QB Rating: 86.5

Roethlisberger's numbers are not bad he is 7-2 in those 9 games which is very impressive, but Warner's are out of this world, he is 8-2 outscoring the opponents by over 10 points in those wins and both loses coming by a field goal. When you consider that these are his postseason numbers, when everything is magnified and every team is playing for their season, when defenses want to hit you so hard that you actually like the prospect of not getting up. It is understandable why a lot of people believe Warner punches his ticket into the hall of fame with a win on Sunday.

Expect Polamalu to roam around Fitz all game long hoping to jump a route and get a pick 6. That probably won't happen, because Arizona has a great offensive line, and Warner is good at sensing pressure and distributing the ball. I expect Boldin to step up big time as I see him getting involved in the offense early and often. Even with all the extra attention they will put on Fitz, he is just too good to be contained in his first Superbowl. Breaston will also be out there and Edge should be 100% with all the rest he had this season. And then there is Hightower who had a great regular season and should make a great 1-2 punch on the running game.

The only way Pittsburgh covers the 7 points is if they shut down Arizona. I mean hold them to less than 17 points. I don't think that is happening on Sunday. Pittsburgh also has a big question mark on offense and that is how hurt Hines Ward really is. He is the main guy in that offense, a physical receiver that is a heck of a blocker and makes big plays. I don't mean 45 yard TD receptions, I mean posession plays, 3rd and 7 kind of catches. Rodgers-Cromartie will be a very important part of the Cardinals defense as he is always a threat to pick Ben and take it back a little.

Pittsburgh defense will try to get to Warner a lot, but they have to be careful because they can get burned really quick. I don't see the same happening when Arizona tries to exploit Pittsburgh's weak offensive line. Ward is not the kind of player that will run 60 yards down the field and Santonio Holmes has underperformed all year, so I think Arizona can look to get pressure on the QB and a few sacks without risking the big play. Pittsburgh will have to risk it. Basically I see Ben on his ass more often than Kurt.

Finally the familiarity of the Cardinal's staff with the Steelers is huge when you have 2 weeks to prepare for a game. The adjustments will come faster and the game plan will stay the course or change accordingly. Close game all the way with the upset a real possibility.

Arizona +7 30
Arizona ML +226 10

Good Luck.


YTD
NFL
52-20-1 418.95
Teasers
2-7-1 -79.5
CFB
50-36 145.35
Teasers
2-4 -23.5
NBA
3-3 -3
CBB
1-1 -3

[jordan_gt_99]

Thanks for the info Cheme, do you think I'm having a big party on Sunday and was thinking about dropping a good amount on Arizona ML, what do you think?

[MrMonkey]

Thanks Cheme, love to root against Shittsburgh, it's the last one so +7 sounds good, glad to see your pretty confident with this one going for the ML! My son graduated a year before T. Hightower at Richmond. Said he was a cool dude on campus! Good luck! Hopefully you see me making some good CBB picks? Make sure you let me know yours!

MrMonkey

[jtnguyen79]

Best of luck to you Cheme

also leaning towards Arizona and the over

[Cheme82]

Thanks for the info Cheme, do you think I'm having a big party on Sunday and was thinking about dropping a good amount on Arizona ML, what do you think?

I would not go crazy with that game Jordan. You'll have plenty of fun on Sunday with your friends/family so don't make the mistake a lot of people make of getting carried away with the hype of this game.

I am playing it small just to have some action on the game but there will be better games to press your bet on, this line is sharp and it's nor woth a big play, specially if you don't want to grab the points.

[Cheme82]

Thanks Cheme, love to root against Shittsburgh, it's the last one so +7 sounds good, glad to see your pretty confident with this one going for the ML! My son graduated a year before T. Hightower at Richmond. Said he was a cool dude on campus! Good luck! Hopefully you see me making some good CBB picks? Make sure you let me know yours!

MrMonkey

No problem man, good luck on the game. Sure hope to see cool dude Hightower punch one in on the Steelers tough run D.

[Cheme82]

Best of luck to you Cheme

also leaning towards Arizona and the over

Thanks bro, hope you hit that over (mostly on Warner's TD throws).

[sportsgenius1]

Cheme who you thinkin in the superbowl

[Cougar Bait]

Great job as always breaking down some interesting points...and thanks for the info on the money movement per our earlier talk. It reaffirmed my Arizona pick. GL Sunday!

[Cheme82]

Cheme who you thinkin in the superbowl

Arizona bro, the breakdow is a few posts above on this page.

[Cheme82]

Great job as always breaking down some interesting points...and thanks for the info on the money movement per our earlier talk. It reaffirmed my Arizona pick. GL Sunday!

No problem Cougar, good luck to you too.

[jordan_gt_99]

Thanks Cheme, i listened to you and only played 200 bucks on Arizona ML. I was going to put 1500 but reading your post made me understand that this is just another game and shouldn't be bet any higher that another.

Hey check out the thread I started doing the system plays, it is 6-0 in series so far since I started it. If you want I'll send you the baseball system too, it's the least I could do after tailing all your NFL picks this season.

[Cheme82]

Thanks for the offer. Sure, send them. Any new tools on my betting arsenal are definitely welcome. NFL ends today so I need any tips/systems for basketball and baseball as I usually take the rest of the year off until football starts again. When I came into this thread my goal was to share my football picks and hopefully do good (that part is done), and then look for tips/systems/cappers that were good enough to use in basketball/baseball.

It was important for me to offer something of quality to the thread before i looked to take something from it (and please, I don't want anybody thinking I'm taking a shot at people that don't post plays, if you are only here to learn and to follow good cappers then that's fine, if you do post on someone's thread as long as you are respectful and that doesn't mean agreeing with the person every time, but even if you disagree if you act politely then you are good.) So now I look to follow and learn on the sports that I'm not too good at.

[OC]

Been so tied up in NBA and CBB, almost forgot to drop back to your thread. Glad to see we're on the same side Cheme. Gonna get +7.5 in some way. I love the Cards in this game but common sense tells me to take the points rather than the money line. Under / over? Wish I could cap big games like I cap reg season games but truth be told, if the o/u was (1) in a big game, I would cap it as UNDER with all of my infinite wisdom, star charts, injuries to pinky toes, and aligning of the planets, so I'm gonna lay off the total (until it's time to put it in and then I'll flip a coin). Anyway, have a great SB and let's cash it. See ya next season Cheme and thanks for all the work.

[jordan_gt_99]

When I came into this thread my goal was to share my football picks and hopefully do good (that part is done),
It was important for me to offer something of quality to the thread before i looked to take something from it (and please, I don't want anybody thinking I'm taking a shot at people that don't post plays, if you are only here to learn and to follow good cappers then that's fine, if you do post on someone's thread as long as you are respectful and that doesn't mean agreeing with the person every time, but even if you disagree if you act politely then you are good.) So now I look to follow and learn on the sports that I'm not too good at.

The way I see it you have more than earned any systems or tips anybody here has for any sport. I already sent you the basketball and baseball systems and I'll send you anything else I might find or any capper that is hot for you to follow. It's awesome that even after hitting 70% in NFL, the sport that so many people have trouble capping, your humbleness to admit that you are not beyond following anyone's advise and are willing to give systems a try.

So many people on this website have an air of superiority and think they are beyond some things. I also like the fact that your thread stays nice and quiet, not that people don't come and check what you have to say, but none of that bullshit we have seen on other threads lately.

Thanks for rating the plays too, that helps a lot.

[Cougar Bait]

The way I see it you have more than earned any systems or tips anybody here has for any sport. I already sent you the basketball and baseball systems and I'll send you anything else I might find or any capper that is hot for you to follow. It's awesome that even after hitting 70% in NFL, the sport that so many people have trouble capping, your humbleness to admit that you are not beyond following anyone's advise and are willing to give systems a try.

So many people on this website have an air of superiority and think they are beyond some things. I also like the fact that your thread stays nice and quiet, not that people don't come and check what you have to say, but none of that bullshit we have seen on other threads lately.

Thanks for rating the plays too, that helps a lot.

This was a really good post. I absolutely agree. And GL today Cheme, it was a nice run toward the end of the year. I didn't play much NFL during the regular season because College takes up so much of my time. I'll look for ya next year! Almost time to sit back and enjoy the game...

[Cheme82]

Thanks guys, good luck today and enjoy the game. I'm off.