WAS @ PIT writeup: Age and injuries have been the story this year for the Pittsburgh Steelers. They will still be without Polamalu and a few guys on on the O-line, but Harrison and Woodley should be back to form which should stop the bleeding on the defensive side of the ball. The line has held steady at PIT-5 w/ 75% action on WAS, and I actually like Pittsburgh to step up on the defensive side of the ball. I think Dick Lebeau gameplans the hell out of this and Pittsburgh is able to slow RGIII, while Washington has no answer to Pittsburgh's balanced attack with the downfield threat of Mike Wallace. The fact that the line has held firm at 5 would indicate sharp action on Pittsburgh, so we'll wait this out until the end of the week before probably getting Pittsburgh on the moneyline.
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CAR @ CHI writeup: On the one hand, I think Carolina has great value as a 9 point dog as the public/media has been down on them and Cam in particular. On the other hand, Chicago dominated Detroit but it wasn't reflected on the scoreboard so I think there is marginal value there as well. In the end, I think until Cam demonstrates the confidence to pull Carolina out of this tailspin, I don't see a veteran presence on this team that can motivate them on both sides of the ball enough to compete with a team like Chicago. I don't feel strongly about this one as 9 points in a game that has the potential to be low scoring a la CHI/DET is massive, but we'll see if we can get it on gameday all the way at CHI-7 (bookmaker has it 7.5-110). Stay tuned for a possible play later in the week.Comment -
Not going to count this toward win/loss, but 8 team/6.5 pt teaser that I think looks real good for a 1/4 unit:
MIN-PK
TB/MIN UNDER 48.5
SEA+7.5
SEA/DET UNDER 50
ATL+7.5
ATL/PHI OVER 39.5
MIA+9
MIA/NYJ UNDER 47.5Comment -
TB @ MIN writeup: I have been saying that MIN is one of the most overrated teams in the NFL, but I like this spot for them for a lot of reasons. The 2 biggest have to be the wayyy overrated TB run D that WILL NOT keep AP under 100 because their strength comes from stopping rushers outside the tackles, and their wayyyy overrated pass offense. Here are some facts:
vs Carolina: Carolina ran the ball 8 times with their running backs for essentially 0 yards. A pretty small sample size and J Stewart was out. 5 carries by Williams yielded -1 yard. Keep in mind, this was before Adrian Clayborn went out for the season. Da'Quan Bowers is also questionable for Thursday.
vs NYG: Ahmad Bradshaw went out in this game after 5 carries for 3.3 per, but Andre Brown carried it 13 times for 5.5 YPC. Brown is a downhill, between the tackles runner. This was a 41-34 shootout that quickly turned into a passing game.
vs Washington: Alfred Morris gashed TB for 5.4 YPC on 21 runs. He is the closest back to what they will see in AP that TB has had all year.
vs NO: Pierre Thomas had 13 carries, at 3.2 YPC, but NO has been awful running all year, averaging only 3.7.
Every other running back that they've faced in J Charles, D Murray, and Sproles is best running off-tackle, and they were pretty limited by TB's solid LB corps. The biggest takeaways here are the games they've played against Morris and Brown, who were both able to dominate them at about 5.5 ypc each. Minnesota has had success running against other teams that were good against the run, and even they weren't able to consistently limit AP.
As for TB's offense, Freeman has been erratic when he's not destroying the worst defenses in the NFL. In terms of Yards allowed per play, TB's opponents have looked like this on defense: NO (32nd, 6.6 YPP), NYG (31st, 6.4 YPP), KC (29th, 6.3 YPP), WAS (27th, 6.2 YPP), CAR (17th, 5.5 YPP), DAL (13th, 5.2 YPP). TB has scored a total of 148 points through 6 games this season. Of those, 26 were scored against Carolina and Dallas (the only defenses that were average or better by this metric), and a whopping 122 points against 4 of the 6 worst defenses in football. Interestingly enough the 28th ranked defense in terms of YPP is Tampa Bay themselves, while Minnesota ranks 7th allowing 4.8.
There are going to be two plays in this game. One is the under, and the other is going to be Minnesota either minus the points if the line moves to somewhere like 5, or on the moneyline. The under is the better play as Minnesota ranks 28th overall on offense (YPP), while I've explained why TB's #3 offense is a farce. Minnesota will control this game throughout with their rushing attack which will eat clock, and their defense will severely limit a streaky TB offense. The line has moved to 42.5 now which isn't exactly a key number, but it is at 42.5 at all books so we can wait until tomorrow to see if it continues to get juiced. If not, and some books start moving lower, we'll jump on whichever is left at 42.5.
One thing that I hate to do is lay more than a FG in games that I expect will be low-scoring, but this will should be moving down. According to the new Beta here at SBR that tracks actual dollar amounts wagered (see sticky if you don't know what im talking about), the dollar amounts wagered look like TB 81%/MIN19% and I think that most sharps are waiting to see if this thing goes down as well. We'll see how all of this plays out, but expect plays on MIN-5 and Under 43.5.Comment -
If we don't see the line movement we want for TB/MIN, expect a 6 point tease to MIN-.5/UNDER 48.5.Comment -
Why under after last wks tb gm?Comment -
From the above write-up: As for TB's offense, Freeman has been erratic when he's not destroying the worst defenses in the NFL. In terms of Yards allowed per play, TB's opponents have looked like this on defense: NO (32nd, 6.6 YPP), NYG (31st, 6.4 YPP), KC (29th, 6.3 YPP), WAS (27th, 6.2 YPP), CAR (17th, 5.5 YPP), DAL (13th, 5.2 YPP). TB has scored a total of 148 points through 6 games this season. Of those, 26 were scored against Carolina and Dallas (the only defenses that were average or better by this metric), and a whopping 122 points against 4 of the 6 worst defenses in football. Interestingly enough the 28th ranked defense in terms of YPP is Tampa Bay themselves, while Minnesota ranks 7th allowing 4.8.
I think this game looks like:
TB 13
MIN 23Comment -
Alright guys, line moving even better than we anticipated for MIN and the under and everyone is still pouring money into Tampa. Expect a tease later this afternoon, hopefully 6 points to min+1.5 and under 49.5Comment -
Looks like this is as good as its gonna get.
Play: 2 team 6.5pt teaser to MIN+1.5/Under 49.5. // BOOKMAKER 2 unitsComment -
Hey guys, I want to get the last 2 public plays out of the way for Sunday in a teaser. Play is:
STL+14.5/MIA+7.5 // LEGENDS 2 units // 6.5 point teaseComment -
Ha I hear you man. I don't see how Minny loses this game at all sans massive flukes or big special teams plays, but I'm not going to say that I'm upset I got the hook on the other side of 1. Also gave me the hook on 49 for the under but I think you got it in good, and for less juice I'm sure. I booked this through Bookmaker like an idiot at -130 when I could have got it -115 at Legends. It takes a special kind of sports bettor to wait all week for the line to move to -5 and the total to keep climbing, and then lose all that value by not checking another book because I had to do it from my IPhone in the parking lot instead of waiting 15 mins til I got home to have all the info in front of me.Comment -
Well, that's it. I hope the vikes get crushed tonightComment -
I guess all we can do is learn from tonight. I thought this was a pretty solid cap, but I probably skewed some of my analysis to fit the picture that I had already painted for this game. Turnovers hurt and I don't think anyone saw Doug Martin having the game he did against this defense, but I'm sure I can analyze these games more exhaustively. It's a legitimate loss on both sides of this tease, but I'm still feeling good about the rest of the week. Best of luck.Comment -
Raining in Philly so Vick won't be able to hold on to the ball:
ATL+3-115 // BovadaComment -
Gl...Comment -
KC @ SD : KC is the lean in this one. Everyone is down on both teams, but the Chiefs moreso. SD beat them 37-20 earlier this year but that came off 6 turnovers (5 in the first half) that SD turned into 24 points. KC turns the ball over a lot, but even that is an outlier for them. 79% of the money in on SD so far, after the line opened around 10-110, so we'll wait until gameday to see if we can get it back at that level. What do you guys think?Comment -
Week 9 Play:
TB+1.5-110 // BOOKMAKER
Not going to get fancy with this one. TB is a much better team that has played a much tougher schedule. They are on the road again this week, but have extra rest after the TNF win @ MIN. Getting any points here is awesome, doing it with the hook is better, and getting it in now before we see line movement like we saw last week w/ NYG@DAL where TB closes probably around -1 is the nuts. SBR's consensus page shows the money coming in hard on TB, to the tune of $102,000 vs $1,700 for Oakland. Get it in now before you have to take it at PK.Comment -
2nd Play of the Week:
CHI-3-115 // BOOKMAKER
Another no-brainer. Chicago Offense has looked sluggish, but I think the scare against Carolina has brought this team back down to earth. Matt Hasselbeck has shown that he's not as done as everyone thought, but he still tries to force too many plays which should provide the over-performing Chicago D some turnover opportunities. Tennessee's D is bad, and I don't think this one is even close. Get it on the 3 now before the 90% action on Chicago so far drives this all the way past 4.Comment -
Another play:
DEN-3-125 // LEGENDS
Bought this from -3.5+100. Bengals off the Bye, but they are still a bad team that tries to rely almost solely on Dalton's (too) deep ball to AJ Green. Dre Kirkpatrick coming back for Cincy should be a non-factor against Peyton until he gets up to game speed. Peyton's thumb injury doesn't look to be a problem as he was still able to dissect that awful NO secondary. Bengals have a bad D and a boom or bust offense and I like Peyton and the Denver pass rush 7 days a week.Comment -
ARI @ GB - Not going to make a play on it yet because I imagine a bunch of money is coming in on GB, but I like Arizona in this spot. GB has been absolutely ravaged by injury and if Jordy can't go, this will be a play at about +11. GB's run game is non-existent and doesn't figure to breakout against Arizona. That puts this game on the shoulders of Rodgers, James Jones, Randall Cobb, Grandpa Driver, and Jermichael Finley. Arizona's secondary got embarrased against SF, but there are a few pro-bowlers back there.
When Arizona has the ball they will still get sacked a bunch while their offensive line gets absolutely abused, but they should be able to run a more balanced offense against GB which should allow them to score a couple times with Fitzgerald out there. 12 points is just too many to be laying a GB team that is this banged up. Line is 11 now but I imagine it will get juiced to 11.5 or 12 when Jordy isn't ruled out. Even if he plays, he won't be the same.Comment -
A lot of square plays this week, and here is the 4th:
WAS-3-120 // BOOKMAKER
Until Cam Newton can lock it up and lead this Carolina team, I would not feel comfortable betting on them. Washington is missing Fred Davis and Garcon on offense with DeAngelo Hall waiting to see if he'll get suspended. My guess is that Goodell plays the mercy card here after all the other heavy-handed stuff he's been accused of and this line moves to 3.5 or 4. I'm taking it here now on the 3 while it's still available because even without Hall, Cam hasn't shown that he can be a threat in the passing game.Comment -
DET @ JAX writeup: Probably should have jumped on Det-3, but we'll wait it out now that it's gone to 3.5. Jax looked decent against GB, but as I wrote earlier, GB is at about 75% now with all their injuries. Jax will be without MJD, but Jennings isn't horrible. Seattle was able to shutdown megatron, but I don't know who's going to do that for Jax especially with their other receivers proving to be competent at finding holes in zone coverage. The obvious pick here is Detroit as I think Jacksonville just played a kitchen sink game @ GB and came up short, whereas Detroit should have built some confidence off the Seattle win. Will wait until later in the week to see if some 'sharps' move this closer to Det-3.Comment -
BAL @ CLE writeup: Spread was about 12 when these teams met in week 4 which would have meant about -6 if it were in Cleveland. The injuries have been pretty devastating on Defense and they seem to not be able to run the no-huddle with any crowd noise so far this year. Ravens are 1-2 on the road SU with their only win being @ KC in a game they should have lost. Kind of torn about this game and I think the spread is pretty right on. Baltimore got destroyed 2 weeks ago in Houston and Cleveland just beat SD, but I think Baltimore might be enough of a public team to juice this line up some more. I haven't decided who to pick yet, but I'm thinking either BAL moneyline or tease Cleveland if they get to 4 or 4.5. We'll see where were at on gameday.Comment -
BUF @ HOU writeup: Buffalo this year reminds me of the 2010 Seahawks that were either blowing teams out or getting blown out every week, and they'll probably end up going 6-10 as well. I think the trend to look at here for Buffalo is that when they play superior competition like SF and NE, they have been absolutely wrecked. The same thing goes for Houston annihilating inferior teams like Jax, Tenn, and even solid teams like Mia and Bal. The exceptions have been a do-or-die Jets team, and the Broncos in Mile High.
The Texans are missing Cushing, but the Bills have been pretty decimated by injury as well with 11 players on the injury report including Cordy Glenn and a lackluster Mario Williams listed as questionable. Other than Cushing, the Texans are relatively healthy and should be able to score at will against the second worst D in the league in terms of YPP, as well as giving up 6 a carry.
Both teams are coming off the bye, which I think favors Buffalo a bit because it gives Jackson/Spiller more time to heal. I can only book this at -10.5 now, but expect a play if it gets to 10 or maybe i'll buy it down.Comment -
Looking at my spreadsheet, I am 15-7-1 betting ATS in the last 3 weeks and getting crushed on totals and the 2 stupid teasers I did. I think unless a total really jumps out at me, I am done betting them. As for teasers, I broke all my own rules about crossing key numbers and will bet them only crossing 3/7 or 3/3 from here on out.Comment -
Week 9 recap of plays we've made so far:
TB+1.5-110 // BOOKMAKER
CHI-3-115 // BOOKMAKER
DEN-3-125 // LEGENDS
WAS-3-120 // BOOKMAKER
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3-1 so far. Adding
DAL+4.5-110 // BOVADAComment -
3-2 adding:
NEW ORLEANS-2.5-115 // top betComment -
4-2 last week. Didn't get as many picks in because I was in Vegas betting instead of hanging out on here. Have one teaser in for Week 10:
3 Team / 6 Point Teaser on Bookmaker
BAL-1.5
NOR+8.5
HOU+7.5
To win 1 unit. Expect more writeups and picks as the week goes on.
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min+3-110 // bovada
hou+1.5-110 // bookmaker
bal-7-125 // bookmakerComment -
tb-3-110 // legends
den-3-135 // bookmaker
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