NOR+1.5-120 // Top Bet
DAL-1.5-110 // TOP BET
DAL-1.5-110 // TOP BET
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NYG-3-135 // BookmakerComment -
Should be going 5-1 this morning if everything holds up. 2 more plays for the later games:
Sea-5.5-110 // Bookmaker
STL+13-110 // BookmakerComment -
5-1 on the early games. Sea, StL and DAL all looking good so far. Sweat tonight on HOU+1.5 and HOU +7.5 for the 3 team teaseComment -
9-1 WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Lean for tonight is on Pitt, but I don't love them at -12.5. Going to wait for the "sharps" to hopefully hammer it closer to 10 tonight. Stay tuned for early leans for next week.Comment -
Alright 2 Teaser plays in for this week:
2 Team 6 point:
MIA+7.5 / DEN-1.5
2 Team 6.5 point:
NE-2.5 / GB+3Comment -
Another play before the public pounds it to 5:
GB-3-130 // LEGENDSComment -
Early Leans this week:
MIAMI as a dog. Coming off a Tennessee beat down with all 10,000 of their fans watching. Miami will probably be a road team from here on out. Similar to NYG and DAL.
GREEN BAY by a FG. I can't penetrating believe this line opens at -3-110 some places, but I have to pay the juice to buy the half point because I can't deposit money on those books because I live in penetrating America. We are so free here. Anyway, this line is broken and public pounds it to God knows where. I've already bought.
CLEVELAND plus over a TD. Hopefully Bovada opens this at 7.5 because again, I can only get it 7 and Legends is already camped out in Dallas teaser-protect mode at a shaded 9. Dallas has been bad at home and is coming off a win, Cleveland off the Bye will make this the sexiest dog pick of the week and you can only hope no one gets hurt patting themselves on the back for being so "sharp" and seeing this value. And a million of these when it cashes:
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JACKSONVILLE after losing to an emotional Indy team on a short week. Jax has the rest, Houston just had an impressive win @ CHI, this thing is juiced and if public is coming in on Houston laying almost 17, we'll just ride it out until then. Can get 16 now, but wouldn't lose any sleep if I had to take this at 14.5 or 15.
CINCINNATI might be a play. None of my books have opened, but it looks like it will be one of those -3.5 road dogs. Hopefully KC at least stays competitive with Pitt and this doesn't move toward 5. Cincy had an impressive win against the NYG, but they have been a very boom/bust offense all year that was able to CONSISTENTLY pick apart a terrible NYG secondary. KC's problem is averaging almost 3.5 turnovers per game. They are putting up the yards, just blow it constantly. We'll re-assess after KC game tonight but I can't imagine betting on KC for the rest of the year if they keep up these turnover shenanigans.
ST LOUIS is better than the NYJ and they are -3 at home. We're getting some unfortunate line value with NYJ coming off an ugly loss, and STL hanging on to tie as almost a 2 TD dog. Fact remains, STL is better and they are only laying a FG for now, which is fair.Comment -
ATLANTA because Arizona has no offense. Literally. Atlanta couldn't hang in a shootout against a New Orleans team who has figured out how to play football again. They are still 2 TD's better than Arizona who has been in freefall. Arizona off the Bye has had 2 full weeks to realize just how bad they actually are and Atlanta has the pressure to stay undefeated, off. Now they can go back to doing what they do best: Trying to air it out to Julio 5x a game and completing 10% of them.
TAMPA BAY because Cam still
and Tampa is rolling. They have a complete offense and one of the best Run D's in the league. Secondary is a mess, but Cam won't be able to see through his crocodile tears to find any receivers.
WASHINGTON off the Bye, but will have to see where this opens. BetOnline has a shaded WAS-1.5 posted, which I would take fist pumping the whole way. Should be closer to WAS-7 if Foles has to start.Comment -
NEW ORLEANS is terrifying to bet on the road, but it's even scarier to wake up and realize you have money on the Raiders. Probably stay away from this game, but NOR-4.5 should be more like NOR-6.
SAN DIEGO because Denver will come back down to earth. Denver coming off 2 wins as a road favorite is laying close to 8 points at home. SD is coming off a cross-country road loss, but they are not an inept team that can stay in this game. I think Denver wins this outright, but this is a tough spot to lay more than a TD.Comment -
Play for tonight:
KC+14-120 // BOVADAComment -
10-1Comment -
Another play:
STL-3-120 // Top BetComment -
Before it gets worse:
TB-1-115 // TOP BETComment -
Take:
NO-4.5-110
Still looking at Atlanta and Cincinnati for public plays. Might make Atlanta today if it gets to 9.5, but will probably wait on Cincy and the other 5 or so plays until gamedayComment -
Well guys, we were robbed out of getting -3 on Pittsburgh with Ben likely out. Poor showing against the lowly chiefs in prime time should have given us the bump we needed to get off the hook. Now this game is untouchable with maybe a play on Bal-2 or whatever it's at.
Also of note is WAS-3.5 against Nick Foles. Oh baby oh baby. Gonna give this a few hours to settle in. Looks like public is mostly on WAS as expected, so we'll watch Pinny and if they start moving to 4, we'll buy down to WAS-3. Free money is my favorite kind of money.Comment -
Pinny line moving toward the 4, gonna lock down:
WAS-3-135 // BOOKMAKERComment -
Alright money is even on not sides but BOVADA still hanging the 3. Snap up:
MIAMI+3-115 // BOVADA
Miami is significantly better than Buffalo, but this line says they are only 5 cents better. Don't over think this.Comment -
Blew it with the Cleveland pick. Here they are:
CLE+7.5-120 // Top Bet
NE-9-110 // Top Bet
ATL-9-110 // Bookmaker
JAX+16-120 // BovadaComment -
sd+7.5-115 // bovadaComment -
The play:
SF-3-135 // Top BetComment -
4-4-1 so far week 12. Probably gonna go 5-5-1 before the CAR. Have locked these down for week 13 so far. Sucker lines, so what:
DEN-6.5-110 // BOOKMAKER
SF-6.5-110 // BOOKMAKER
HOU-4.5-110 // BOOKMAKER
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