Beating Up the Books with Andrew: College Hoops Edition

[acifala]

Last three picks have ended miserably... Rough start to the week, but two games left today to make up for today's losses

[acifala]

9-6 in last 15 picks... On a cold streak that's about to end

[acifala]

looking good so far king 0-3 so far u are the king.

Can't win every single pick or else you and I would both be billionaires and Vegas wouldn't exist. Looking ahead to make up for this rough patch

[sloppy joe]

9-6 in last 15 picks... On a cold streak that's about to end

0-3 posted plays soon to be 0-5 hope nobody tails u. does that 3 and 4 beside them mean how many darts hit them

[acifala]

0-3 posted plays soon to be 0-5 hope nobody tails u. does that 3 and 4 beside them mean how many darts hit them

...

[acifala]

Michigan comes out on top and ends the cold streak! Now let's go CSU

[acifala]

Went 2-2 today. Ending the day on a 2-0 streak is helpful! Looking to improve tomorrow. Stay tuned for more picks- hope everyone had a profitable day.

[Elysee26]

hang in there aci, stay focused....

[CTOWNsCAPPIN]

Nice finish to your day ACI.....keep plugging away bro!

[acifala]

Thanks for the support! I feel a hot streak coming... Picks will be up soon

[RyDawgg10]

Keep up the good work man, looking forward to picks

[acifala]

Here's the first round of today's picks:

(3*) Notre Dame -2.5/West Virginia
(3*) Cal Santa Barbara +8/Long Beach State
(4*) Duquesne -3/Dayton

Stay tuned- might have one or two more later today... Keeping a careful eye on Ramon Galloway's injury for La Salle.

The king has spoken

[acifala]

Keep up the good work man, looking forward to picks

Thank- I appreciate the support now let's make some money!

[acifala]

Let's add another to the board:

(3*) Michigan State -5.5/Minnesota

The king has spoken

[acifala]

Good luck out there everyone!

[acifala]

Looks like we'll start off 1-1 today... Looking forward to getting these last two games and making it a winning day

[acifala]

Couldn't have been a worse win for the Spartans... Now let's go Gauchos! Need a win to make this a .500 day. This cold streak needs to end ASAP

[acifala]

On a miserable streak right now going 3-5 in the last 8... We'll make up for it tomorrow. Hope everyone had a profitable day!

[BoutDemCowboys]

Any leans?

[acifala]

Any leans?

I like Wisconsin -4.5 tomorrow vs Iowa... I think that spread will go up too

[acifala]

Murray State -4 vs Tennessee State seems like a solid play as well. 4* play

[acifala]

I have a B.S. in mathematics and an M.S. in electrical engineering so we've been working on deriving an equation to choose a victor in evenly matched teams such as in Duke vs Florida State. Still many kinks, but right now the formula claims Duke to win narrowly... home advantage might be the key factor in this one, but we'll see

[BoutDemCowboys]

I'm on Duke. As much as home court advantage is clutch (venue sold out!), I think this comes down to revenge, and the quality of coaching.

Hence Duke>FL St. Also the spread has already moved 1.5. It was a pickem now its Duke -1.5

[acifala]

It's hard to think coach K would let the blue devils fall to an ACC rival twice in one season... Any thoughts?

[BoutDemCowboys]

Also you better get that formula up and running! Right now its not beating up the books with andrew. It's the beating of Andrew from the books. I got faith though..... You'll turn it around. right? Lol

[acifala]

Also you better get that formula up and running! Right now its not beating up the books with andrew. It's the beating of Andrew from the books. I got faith though..... You'll turn it around. right? Lol

hahahaha no joke. The last few days have been ice cold, but we got on an 7-0 heater not long ago so I'm hoping something like that kicks in... FAST lol. The formula is insane! 3 others and myself are using this years personal (not team) statistics to break down a way where points can be estimated based on a modeled number of possessions. Theoretically, we want to be able to predict the score a team will post to within 1-1.5 standard deviations... It's a long work in progress, but we hope to make it successful!

PS: Thanks for the humor much appreciated on tough days like this lol

[acifala]

I'm on Duke. As much as home court advantage is clutch (venue sold out!), I think this comes down to revenge, and the quality of coaching.

Hence Duke>FL St. Also the spread has already moved 1.5. It was a pickem now its Duke -1.5

yeah- i think pick-em duke would be an advisable play

[acifala]

Duke -1.5/Florida State... a first round bye in the ACC tourney is at stake and no way coach K lets this one slip. I like Duke. 3*

[acifala]

One more for today:

(3*) North Texas +3/Arkansas-Little Rock

This one looks great on paper! N-Tex is 16-5 ATS and boast a +6.3 pt differential all season. They are superior to the Trojans in nearly every category. Should play out to a win for the Mean Green who desperately look to advance their post-season playoff position

[RockyTopGambler]

1 st. deviation. Isn't that an insanely high confidence interval? Seems hard to do in a real sport and not the lab, but more power to you. You get something anywhere close to that and you'll be winning at a nice clip.

[acifala]

1 st. deviation. Isn't that an insanely high confidence interval? Seems hard to do in a real sport and not the lab, but more power to you. You get something anywhere close to that and you'll be winning at a nice clip.

In some cases, it is insanely accurate, but with less persistent teams or teams whose performance is skewed based on the performance of a single player, a difference of a single standard deviation can produce a high level of uncertainty (6-7 points of variance from the predicted outcome). This is why we're trying to break teams down statistically by each player. It's an awful lot of data, but we have high hopes!

[acifala]

1-0 so far... 3 to go

[jjesco425]

lose the king has spoken catch phrase its a jinx..... elvis has left the building

[acifala]

2-0 with 2 to go

[acifala]

3-0... Need the badgers to get it together to help cap off a great day