RLM System Plays

[detroitigerz]

Dunno how good Iowa is but this penn state looks good. I just pulled the trigger, double the bet size. And hope you all caught that Detroit (NCAA) game earlier!

[Night-Tripper]

Original criteria:

Penn State
Clemson
Auburn

Revised criteria:
Penn State
Clemson

[crockje]

Original criteria: Penn State Clemson Auburn Revised criteria: Penn State Clemson

Liked penn st a lot to but man they are getting rocked out of the gate

[FadeThat]

Don't sleep on Texas A&M today boys

[Reno Gambler]

Do you put all sports on this thread or are the picks on each forum ie...CBB picks cbb forum.

[Night-Tripper]

Do you put all sports on this thread or are the picks on each forum ie...CBB picks cbb forum.

Everything involving RLM will be here... one stop shopping.

[wiseguy007]

Wiseguy how often will you be updating this throughout the day? Any more games that qualify?

Sorry I update alot but today I was not feeling well and fell asleep.

[wiseguy007]

UPDATE

Games to Watch 2/04/12

Based on this:

1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.

2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.

3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them to your book.

4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER



NCAAB

12:00pm 531 Detroit Titans OPEN +4 NOW +3.5

2:00pm 563 Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers OPEN +2 NOW +1.5

3:00pm 569 Penn State Nittany Lions OPEN +7 NOW +6

4:00pm 577 Clemson Tigers OPEN +4.5 NOW +3

4:00pm 589 Auburn Tigers OPEN +12.5 NOW +11.5

5:00pm 600 Northern Iowa Panthers OPEN +1.5 NOW +1

7:00pm 648 George Washington Colonials OPEN +2 NOW +1.5

7:00pm 633 Depaul Blue Demons OPEN +14.5 NOW +13.5

NBA

7:35pm 507 New Jersey Nets open +7 now +6.5

8:35pm 518 San Antonio Spurs OPEN -1.5 NOW -3

9:05pm 522 Utah Jazz OPEN -1.5 NOW -2


YTD: 56-46-1

[Night-Tripper]

Upcoming original formula plays:

Spurs -3
Nets +6.5
Jazz -2

NIU +1
GWU +1.5
Northeastern +13
TCU +10.5
Northern Colorado +13

While the original formula allowed static lines if there was a large percentage of bets on one side... all of these plays have RLM at the present time.

[garnetandblack]

Spurs are a play at this point right? Open -1.5 Now -3 and 74% is on Thunder

[Night-Tripper]

Spurs are a play at this point right? Open -1.5 Now -3 and 74% is on Thunder

You're right... I had it written down and then forgot to transfer it to my post.

[Laissez Faire]

Laissez Faire, are you playing NHL today? I did not look until now and there are early games. I want to monitor today and see how it goes.

So if I understand correctly:
- Moneyline 63%/37% or greater
- Moneyline is Static or Reverse Movement on Vig
- Play the team the public does not favor
- Play the spread and possibly the moneyline smaller

yes I will be playing NHL tonight....Edmonton +1.5/+135 is the only thing I see thus far

[Capybara]

Thanks a ton for running this thread, guys. I'm a big RLM player and, even though I've only just discovered this thread now for some reason, it should help me a lot as I'm sure it's already helped others. Good work!

[R19]

Kansas vs. Missouri fell off on percentages.

[Night-Tripper]

yes I will be playing NHL tonight....Edmonton +1.5/+135 is the only thing I see thus far

Do you play moneyline... spread... or both?

[mrtsummit]

I like missouri first half

[Night-Tripper]

Thanks a ton for running this thread, guys. I'm a big RLM player and, even though I've only just discovered this thread now for some reason, it should help me a lot as I'm sure it's already helped others. Good work!

Thanks... and welcome.

[R19]

Thanks a ton for running this thread, guys. I'm a big RLM player and, even though I've only just discovered this thread now for some reason, it should help me a lot as I'm sure it's already helped others. Good work!

Do you see anything that we can sharpen up on in our approach?

- 63% or more public on one side - some of us will play a 61% or 62%.
- Reverse Line Movement - some of us will play static spreads since open as well.
- > 3,000 by at least one team - some of us play if > 3,000 total plays.
- No max spreads - some of us play a max spread on games.

[Laissez Faire]

IDK, looking at Odds Shark's match up it sounds like the Cats do well against Stanford. Staying off it though I want to play. The RX also has 3.0 as the open.

wish I had pulled the trigger

[Laissez Faire]

Do you play moneyline... spread... or both?

I watch the ML...if it fits into RLM system, then I play the ML & the spread.

[Night-Tripper]

I watch the ML...if it fits into RLM system, then I play the ML & the spread.

Gotcha... thanks!

[Capybara]

Do you see anything that we can sharpen up on in our approach?

- 63% or more public on one side - some of us will play a 61% or 62%.
- Reverse Line Movement - some of us will play static spreads since open as well.
- > 3,000 by at least one team - some of us play if > 3,000 total plays.
- No max spreads - some of us play a max spread on games.

I think what you're doing is probably fine. I personally am a little less stringent, although I don't play all the games anyway, and I still incorporate my own feel. But for instance, I only look for 60% or over, and I don't worry too much about the total number of bets (unless it's super low).

However, I do look for at least a full-point move. The only time I'd play a static spread would be if there were a massive percentage, like >75% on one side or even 80%. I never really play those. My favorite plays are usually like 65-72% on one side but a 1.5- to 2-pt move away from that side.

[Capybara]

Oh, one more thing... I find that the BIGGEST problem with trying to coordinate RLM plays is the variance in percentages from one source to another... I jump around and use like three or four different sources, but no matter what I do, I see different info, sometimes very different.

I use these to start:

http://www.sportsinsights.com/all-sports-betting-trends.aspx

http://pregame.com/sportsbook_spy/default.aspx?sport=cbb

Then also SBR Odds, Bet Tracker, etc... I rarely find total agreement.

[Night-Tripper]

Original formula plays:

Spurs -3
Nets +6.5
Jazz -2

NIU +1
GWU +1.5
Northeastern +13
TCU +10.5
Northern Colorado +13
South Carolina +12

Added South Carolina/static with 84% of the bets on Kentucky

[R19]

Thanks for the insights Capybara.

Come on Clemson. You can do it!

[Capybara]

Come on Clemson. You can do it!

WOW!! Did not see them coming back to get the cover for us!

[wiseguy007]

UPDATE:

Games to Watch 2/04/12

Based on this:

1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.

2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.

3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them to your book.

4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER



NCAAB

12:00pm 531 Detroit Titans OPEN +4 NOW +3.5

2:00pm 563 Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers OPEN +2 NOW +1.5

3:00pm 569 Penn State Nittany Lions OPEN +7 NOW +6

4:00pm 577 Clemson Tigers OPEN +4.5 NOW +3

4:00pm 589 Auburn Tigers OPEN +12.5 NOW +11.5

5:00pm 600 Northern Iowa Panthers OPEN +1.5 NOW +1

7:00pm 648 George Washington Colonials OPEN +2 NOW +1.5

7:00pm 633 Depaul Blue Demons OPEN +14.5 NOW +13.5

7:00pm 649 Northeastern Huskies OPEN +13.5 NOW +12.5

10:00pm 691 TCU Horned Frogs OPEN +12 NOW +10.5



NBA

7:35pm 507 New Jersey Nets open +7 now +6.5

8:35pm 518 San Antonio Spurs OPEN -1.5 NOW -3

9:05pm 522 Utah Jazz OPEN -1.5 NOW -2



YTD: 56-46-1

[Laissez Faire]

NCAAB

12:00pm 531 Detroit Titans OPEN +4 NOW +3.5 WIN

2:00pm 563 Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers OPEN +2 NOW +1.5 WIN

3:00pm 569 Penn State Nittany Lions OPEN +7 NOW +6 LOSE

4:00pm 577 Clemson Tigers OPEN +4.5 NOW +3 WIN

4:00pm 589 Auburn Tigers OPEN +12.5 NOW +11.5 WIN


I like what I'm seeing thus far

[Night-Tripper]

UPDATE:

Games to Watch 2/04/12

Based on this:

1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.

2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.

3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them to your book.

4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER



NCAAB

12:00pm 531 Detroit Titans OPEN +4 NOW +3.5 W/Outright Win

2:00pm 563 Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers OPEN +2 NOW +1.5 W/Outright Win

3:00pm 569 Penn State Nittany Lions OPEN +7 NOW +6 L

4:00pm 577 Clemson Tigers OPEN +4.5 NOW +3 W

4:00pm 589 Auburn Tigers OPEN +12.5 NOW +11.5 W

5:00pm 600 Northern Iowa Panthers OPEN +1.5 NOW +1

7:00pm 648 George Washington Colonials OPEN +2 NOW +1.5

7:00pm 633 Depaul Blue Demons OPEN +14.5 NOW +13.5

7:00pm 649 Northeastern Huskies OPEN +13.5 NOW +12.5

10:00pm 691 TCU Horned Frogs OPEN +12 NOW +10.5



NBA

7:35pm 507 New Jersey Nets open +7 now +6.5

8:35pm 518 San Antonio Spurs OPEN -1.5 NOW -3

9:05pm 522 Utah Jazz OPEN -1.5 NOW -2



YTD: 56-46-1

Nice job wiseguy!

[R19]

We need this today.

Clemson
"Tiger Rag"

Long ago way down in the jungle
Someone got an inspiration for a tune
And that jingle came from the jungle
Became famous mighty soon
Thrills and chills it sends through you
Hot so hot it burns you too
Though it's just the growl of the Tiger
It was written in a syncopated way
More and more they yell for the Tiger
Everywhere you go today, they're shoutin:
Where's that Tiger?
Where's that Tiger?
Where's that Tiger?
Where's that Tiger?
Hold that Tiger!
Hold that Tiger!
Hold that Tiger!
C-L-E-M-S-O...N!

[Laissez Faire]

agreed

[garnetandblack]

We need this today.

Clemson
"Tiger Rag"

Long ago way down in the jungle
Someone got an inspiration for a tune
And that jingle came from the jungle
Became famous mighty soon
Thrills and chills it sends through you
Hot so hot it burns you too
Though it's just the growl of the Tiger
It was written in a syncopated way
More and more they yell for the Tiger
Everywhere you go today, they're shoutin:
Where's that Tiger?
Where's that Tiger?
Where's that Tiger?
Where's that Tiger?
Hold that Tiger!
Hold that Tiger!
Hold that Tiger!
C-L-E-M-S-O...N!

oh hell no!

[Laissez Faire]

I deleted my earlier post and am keeping track of my plays today for spreads and ML's, including halves & quarters, for CBB, NBA, & NHL....will post at the end of the night (it is a large sample size for those who did not see my earlier post)

the results have been pretty decent for underdog ML's and 1st half bets (good profit margins)...just need to figure out way to filter through so-so plays

[tokio]

looking good

[Capybara]

NCAAB

2:00pm 563 Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers OPEN +2 NOW +1.5

See, this is what I mean about inconsistency across sources. I just double-checked the FOUR sources I use, because I could have sworn this was not an RLM play. Sure enough, ALL FOUR sources had the OPENING LINE as a pick'em! That completely alters things, since based on that, the line moved in an expected way, the opposite of an RLM play.

Has anyone else had any issues with this "free sports bet" site not agreeing w/ what they saw elsewhere? I was excited to discover this thread, but I hate this sort of discrepancy problem, it always seems to mess things up.