The Sharp Money = Smart Money Thread

**Titan_12** · 11-21-11, 10:54 PM

Add Oregon State +7 as a winner as well, 3-0 so far tonight....

These 5 five plays will not be included in my "official record" which I will start tomorrow

**ThingsFallApart** · 11-21-11, 11:05 PM

This strategy may look good now at the begining of the year, but once conference time rolls around the lines are sharper and tracking movement really means nothing.

Best of luck though, I'll check back.

I think you should also try to track O/U movement if there is anywhere you can find this.

**Titan_12** · 11-21-11, 11:10 PM

Originally posted by ThingsFallApart

This strategy may look good now at the begining of the year, but once conference time rolls around the lines are sharper and tracking movement really means nothing. Best of luck though, I'll check back. I think you should also try to track O/U movement if there is anywhere you can find this.

Thanks!

Yea I'm not saying it'll hold up throughout the year, but has been working well so far.

Yea I use a site that shows O/U movement as well, I'll keep an eye on it to see how it does.

Best of Luck to you!

**truanswer** · 11-21-11, 11:10 PM

Thanks Titan. Look forward to following ur picks. If u have twitter will u post on there so they can go directly to ur phone. Will help with making picks so soon before games start. Thanks.

**zsr** · 11-21-11, 11:18 PM

Titan if you don't mind sharing, what site shows over under movement as well? Thanks.

**Titan_12** · 11-21-11, 11:33 PM

Sure,

Page Not Found - Sports Insights

http://www.sportsinsights.com/college-basketball-betting-trends.aspx

Gives the opening line for CRIS and shows current lines of 5 other online sites....If you click on on the lines under any of the 5 online sites it pops open a window that show each sites line movement from when the line opens.....You can change the pop up window to show ML, O/U, and spread movement.

I use this site to track line movement (spread):

http://twominutewarning.com/bettracker.htm

Averages all the lines together from each site. Doesn't have O/U stuff though.

Both sites are delayed by 20-30 mins, but are great to use.....Think you can sign up to get instant updates but not sure, probably have to pay for it though....

**Titan_12** · 11-21-11, 11:36 PM

Cash Colorado State -7...

Looking like a 4-1 night for the sharps, with UCLA out scoring Chaminade by 30 pts in the second half (looked great at halftime with UCLA only up by 2, guess Chaminade decided they were happy with just that)

**joedell** · 11-21-11, 11:37 PM

you got anything for the kansas game ?

**Titan_12** · 11-21-11, 11:40 PM

Nothing pops out to me as "Sharp money".....

Although, 62% of the public is on Kansas. It's always good to fade the public (House wins more than they lose).

But I'm staying away, I only play "sharp money" plays.

**Titan_12** · 11-22-11, 11:14 AM

So far from early line movement, one plays stand out....

Kent State -6.5 (5dimes)

Not an official play yet.....Just showing that it can be if the line holds true....

Plays that are in BOLD will be counted as official plays

**southpaw74** · 11-22-11, 11:25 AM

You are doing fine so far but remember that the public does win games and "sharp money" isn't always a winner. It's knowing which ones to play...because if you follow one philosophy exclusively then you will lose at the end of the day. there will always be streaks both ways. Good luck and keep up the good work.

**jaydigz** · 11-22-11, 11:25 AM

Is it wrong to ask what sharp $ is ? in your opinion?

**Titan_12** · 11-22-11, 11:34 AM

Originally posted by southpaw74

You are doing fine so far but remember that the public does win games and "sharp money" isn't always a winner. It's knowing which ones to play...because if you follow one philosophy exclusively then you will lose at the end of the day. there will always be streaks both ways. Good luck and keep up the good work.

Yes I know I won't win every single game, but the point is to win more than I lose.....

Thanks, and good luck to you as well!

**rcjiii** · 11-22-11, 11:38 AM

Titan,

What is it that stands out about Kent State? The line has dropped to -4 1/2. Does your methodology indicate it is best to fade the line movements, or do you like it more now at a better price?

Thanks

**Titan_12** · 11-22-11, 11:39 AM

Originally posted by jaydigz

Is it wrong to ask what sharp $ is ? in your opinion?

My definition of "Sharp Money"

When a large % of the public is on one team, but the line moves in favor of the other team....

I'll give an example,

Team A vs. Team B -8 (Opening Line)

Let's lets say 73% of the public is on Team B, but the line drops to -7.5 or -7

Team A vs. Team B -7 (Closing Line)

In this situation using my definition of "sharp money", Team A would have the "sharp money" on it....

Hope this helps.....

If someone disagrees with my definition, please correct me if I'm wrong. Thanks

**Titan_12** · 11-22-11, 11:47 AM

Originally posted by rcjiii

Titan, What is it that stands out about Kent State? The line has dropped to -4 1/2. Does your methodology indicate it is best to fade the line movements, or do you like it more now at a better price? Thanks

I use http://twominutewarning.com/bettracker.htm, which gives an "average line" of multiple online sites...

Kent st. opening "average line" was at -5.5 and the current "average line" is at -6 Kent St., with 68% of the public on Cleveland State but yet the line moved in favor of Kent St.....Making the "Sharp Money" on Kent St.

Now Kent St. isn't a official play yet, but if the line holds true it will be....It will be in BOLD once it is an official play for me....

Now if the line moves in favor of Cleveland State throughout the day, then Kent St. will not be a play

**chilidog** · 11-22-11, 11:52 AM

Do you have a minimum percentage before you determine that a large portion of the public is on that side? 65%?

**Titan_12** · 11-22-11, 12:03 PM

Originally posted by chilidog

Do you have a minimum percentage before you determine that a large portion of the public is on that side? 65%?

Normally i've been doing greater than 60%

**Maddhatter** · 11-22-11, 12:10 PM

Originally posted by Titan_12

I use http://twominutewarning.com/bettracker.htm, which gives an "average line" of multiple online sites...

Kent st. opening "average line" was at -5.5 and the current "average line" is at -6 Kent St., with 68% of the public on Cleveland State but yet the line moved in favor of Kent St.....Making the "Sharp Money" on Kent St.

Now Kent St. isn't a official play yet, but if the line holds true it will be....It will be in BOLD once it is an official play for me....

Now if the line moves in favor of Cleveland State throughout the day, then Kent St. will not be a play

Yeah line just steamed down to 4.5 and 5. Thought the line would continue to go up and I wanted to jump on Cleveland St ML, but I missed the boat. Not sure if it'll move back up again. I have Cleveland St as my best play. Good rivalry game with Kent St looking to avenge last season's loss but I feel Cleveland St is the stronger team here, even on the road. Good luck today bud.

**WilliamWallace** · 11-22-11, 12:14 PM

kent state it looks like 72% of the public is against them and the line went from 5.5 to 4.5 That seems to make sense to me? Am I wrong?

**Titan_12** · 11-22-11, 12:21 PM

Originally posted by Maddhatter

Yeah line just steamed down to 4.5 and 5. Thought the line would continue to go up and I wanted to jump on Cleveland St ML, but I missed the boat. Not sure if it'll move back up again. I have Cleveland St as my best play. Good rivalry game with Kent St looking to avenge last season's loss but I feel Cleveland St is the stronger team here, even on the road. Good luck today bud.

You are correct, line is at Kent St -4.5.....Kent St is no longer a possible play

**rcjiii** · 11-22-11, 12:24 PM

Thanks Titan. How about Seton Hall? If I am reading the graphs correctly most of the money is on Seton Hall, but the line is going the other way.

**Titan_12** · 11-22-11, 12:34 PM

Originally posted by rcjiii

Thanks Titan. How about Seton Hall? If I am reading the graphs correctly most of the money is on Seton Hall, but the line is going the other way.

Public is 50-50 on it, I only play it if greater than 60% is on one side and the line moves the other way....

For example Arkansas State is looking good....But things could change in a few hours so that's why I don't place my bets until close to tip off

**thebestthereis** · 11-22-11, 01:41 PM

Chaminade

**Joe Dogs** · 11-22-11, 02:57 PM

Interesting thread

If it holds Tennessee St looks like it Qualifies.....That being said,do you have any filters in place for double digit dogs or favs that qualify?

Good luck going forward.

**rcjiii** · 11-22-11, 03:23 PM

Originally posted by Titan_12

Public is 50-50 on it, I only play it if greater than 60% is on one side and the line moves the other way....

For example Arkansas State is looking good....But things could change in a few hours so that's why I don't place my bets until close to tip off

It seems to be Cal, Chaminade and Sam Houston State are all potential candidates under your system. Am I right?

Thanks,

RCJIII

**Titan_12** · 11-22-11, 03:24 PM

Originally posted by thebestthereis

Chaminade

You got it!

First official play for me in this thread:

Chaminade +22 -120

I'll be gone before game time so I'm putting it in, looks like it'll hold up I think...

I had Chaminade last night as well, 1st half they looked great but didn't show up in the 2nd half....

So follow at your own risk! Playing each play to win 1x

**rcjiii** · 11-22-11, 03:39 PM

Bet a bunch on Chaminade 1st half + 12 1/2. They played UCLA even until half time and then got blown out. Hoping they can do the same today.

**Bobby D** · 11-22-11, 03:50 PM

New to betting college hoops but it's the "Sharp money" thread lol

**southpaw74** · 11-22-11, 03:58 PM

My only concern is that ucla isn't very good so if they can blow them out then grown certainly can.

**Tmuscle** · 11-22-11, 03:58 PM

Fyi They're playing gtown not ucla.

**southpaw74** · 11-22-11, 04:01 PM

Originally posted by Tmuscle

Fyi They're playing gtown not ucla.

**diveoregon** · 11-22-11, 04:20 PM

Wofford? 76% betting on Bradley, yet line has moved from 6 to 5.

**ksnooksk** · 11-22-11, 04:33 PM

^^yep. Wofford is one.