The Sharp Money = Smart Money Thread

[tarheelfan72]

I can tell you the spread on any UNC game against a cupcake comes down to when Roy Williams decides to put in Jerry's kids at the end of our bench. And the end of our bench is not scholarship players, these guys suck out loud. And, they try to play a half court offense but usually run 30 seconds off the shot clock then dribble off their foot.

Interesting thread

If it holds Tennessee St looks like it Qualifies.....That being said,do you have any filters in place for double digit dogs or favs that qualify?

Good luck going forward.

[blanda]

Jerry's kids....great line!

[Pride]

enjoy losing money on chaminade

they suck and will be down by at least 13 by halftime

[jolmscheid]

So you are basically just following Reverse Line Movement Correct?

[jolmscheid]

I like looking at reverse line movement as well...how much of a "move" must be made before you consider it a play? At least 1 point?

[theplaya]

first half to win by 1/2 pt

[clevelandpride]

Pride lost over 4 bills on the town -12.5

[Titan_12]

Tennessee State +26 -110
NC Wilmington +7.5 -110
California +2 -120

Wofford is close, late movement might make it a no play......This is the only time I can post until later, sorry guys....Be back later, these are my plays for now

Best of Luck to everyone tonight!

[Titan_12]

Wofford +5 -105

Made it a play....NC Wilmington line went up right after I placed my bet so beware......Would have been a no play for me but o well, i'll count it anyways

[Pride]

i dont have a play on chaminade for the game but i hope they pull it out for you. it is just a mismatch all over the place and the hoyas can score on every possession.

i like the wofford play

[blackeyeshamus]

any interest in the line movement favoring UC Davis? while 63% of the public
is already booking Sacramento re. www.thespread.com because I already bought
Sacramento up to 4 when it was 3.5, and now it is 4.5, so I'm thinking SAC ML.

[blackeyeshamus]

to be honest, I booked a three team underdog moneyline parlay this afternoon:
cleveland state, sacramento state, richmond ML .10 to win 1.88 what the f@#k?

[Titan_12]

Waiting to see what happens to UC Davis line, right now no play....

Think I should stay away from the big dogs against top rated teams.....So far looking like 2-2 with Cal left

[Titan_12]

Tomorrow I won't be as busy with work, to pay more attention to line movement near tip-off times

[Joe Dogs]

Cal was down to +1...Now up to +2

[Titan_12]

Cal was down to +1...Now up to +2

It opened at +2.5 so still a play for me

Hoping for a 3-2 and day!

[Checkerboard]

thx for wofford winner titan

[jolmscheid]

Titan..what's your rules on how much the line has to move to become a play? Also, must you see a certain amount of bets on a game before considering it as a play?

[BugsBunnyAUS]

oops

[Joe Dogs]

Georgetown

[Titan_12]

Record (2-3) -1.5x

[Titan_12]

Titan..what's your rules on how much the line has to move to become a play? Also, must you see a certain amount of bets on a game before considering it as a play?

I've been just using a line movement of 0.5.....The higher the better though (less of a chance for the line to move in the other direction right before tip-off)

Yes the number of bets matters....As you might notice looking at the line movement early in the day can look a lot different later in the day (More bets are placed throughout the day)

[Titan_12]

Looking at early movement:

Illinois Chicago
Chaminade (Not playing them again....0-2 when I put money on them, play well the 1st half but leave the gym when the 2nd begins)
Georgetown
Austin Peay
Rutgers
Illinois State

All have potential to become plays, but nothing official (things could change in an hour or two)

[rcjiii]

The Illinois Chicago game seems to fit your criteria to a tee.

The public is 69% on Evansville currently, but the line has dropped from -6 to -4 1.2

[Titan_12]

The Illinois Chicago game seems to fit your criteria to a tee. The public is 69% on Evansville currently, but the line has dropped from -6 to -4 1.2

Yep,

Illinois Chicago
Georgetown
Rutgers

are looking very very good

[Titan_12]

Chaminade will not be a play for me even though it meets everything....They don't show up in the 2nd half, they've burned me 2 times in a row

[Joe Dogs]

Titan,looks like the % on Memphis dropped below 60%,If that holds no play Georgetown.

Other plays looking good

Best of luck

[Titan_12]

Sam Houston St. +1.5 -108

[dudekid]

im on sam houston as well, and memphis ML...bol my friend

[Titan_12]

im on sam houston as well, and memphis ML...bol my friend

Good Luck buddy!

[Titan_12]

Titan,looks like the % on Memphis dropped below 60%,If that holds no play Georgetown. Other plays looking good Best of luck

Now here's where things get fishy....Normally if line movement is significant (Like the GTOWN line) and the public is still on the other side (like they are now) I would still play it....

If the public is still less than 45% on GTOWN by tip-off, i'll be on them (unfortunately two minute warning is 20-30 mins delayed on the information, so what looks like the public is on one side before the game starts it might be the other way around 30 mins after tip-off, only when the %s are around 50)

[Titan_12]

Austin Peay +3.5 -107

[Titan_12]

Georgetown -2 -109

[rcjiii]

Are you watching Dartmouth? Public all over San Fran and line dropping nicely.

[Titan_12]

Are you watching Dartmouth? Public all over San Fran and line dropping nicely.

Public 50-50 on it though, if line keeps dropping and the the public is on San Fran at 55% or greater I'll make it a play