Need more fouling boys.
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Illinois is horrible. This is the opposite of what was needed going into the big game
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Yeah Illinois pick loses, but I feel like Karma paid me back with the Duke game going into OT after that bullshit yesterday with double OT in Bama.
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Mini miracle...thanks for overtime at duke
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i see, keep dishing out em ninja plays!
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Overall Record: 230-179-2 [+36.87]
2nd Halves: 161-112-6 [+39.05]Comment -
2.6.12
[2nd Half] Missouri-Oklahoma Under 76.5 [-110]
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Defense looks optional today.Comment -
[9pm ET]
J'Covan Brown Total Points Over 17.5 [-130]
Brown is a streaky shooter for sure and he's saved some of his best for the road. In four Big 12 road games, he's hit for 19 or more and over 30 twice. He had 14 the 1st time against A&M on a poor shooting night [2/12] where he got to the line ten times and made ten FTs. He's beaten this number in six of ten conference games and I think with the potential last meeting between these fierce rivals, he just may put on a show.Comment -
Sweet. Under hits after some tense shit.Comment -
[2nd Half] Marquette-DePaul Over 81.5 [-110]
Number is a little higher than # of possessions, but DePaul 2nd halves usually have tons of points with fouls and shite defense.Comment -
3-0. Yee & haw.
Overall Record: 233-179-2 [+39.87]
2nd Halves: 163-112-6 [+41.05]Comment -
EP, I just discovered this gem of a thread...damn you've got a 10%-ish yield overall/15%-ish on the 2nd-halfers...blue-chip investment-grade quality...do you deem this an exceptionally good run so far...or just "business" as usual.Comment -
why am i working when i can just stay home and tail your basketball picks
seriously though, do u bet fulltime? with your knowledge in sports seems like you can just live off it.Comment -
This is the 1st year I have really dedicated myself on the 2nd half formula. I kind of dabbled in it a little last year to test it out, but was undisciplined in some of my plays as far as gravitating toward overs too much. This year, I have been sticking strictly to possessions formula with the exception of a couple of teams that I have noticed large over trends on in the 2nd half - like DePaul, Rider and some others. What I have also tried to do is focus on a few games ahead of time in each time slot that I want to look at first instead of feeling overwhelmed by trying to look at all the half times during a certain time slot where you can go nuts.
Trying to hone my reads on the full games better ahead of the tournaments in March because 2nd halves will get hectic on some of those days. It's taken my plenty of years of losing to finally figure things out as far as money management and sticking to whatever plan I start off with. Appreciate the nice words, hopefully the run can continue through the end of March.
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With a sustained W% as high as yours, money management is a no-brainer (flat...either a flat amount or a flat %Bank...)...that's one thing I like about your picks on this thread...flat=let the W% take care of things.
Henceforth, consider me an "ardent adherent" at a flat risk-averse (ie. "super-chicken") 1%Bank.
Thinking out loud department: I'll be tweaking things a bit by sticking to my flat amount...say $10 originally calculated vs. my starting $1000 till a new high achieved (say $1018)...then recalculating my new flat units to be $10.18...and sticking to that, hell or high-water till a brand new high achieved (say $1031)...then re-calculate my unit as 1% of that new latest high...then play this flat-amount ($10.31) until yet another high is achieved...then, rinse, lather, repeat... Basically I'll be up-calibrating units whenever possible but never down-calibrating, as is normally implied by "flat%". I'll be calculating a flat-amount based on the latest-reference high's flat%...then playing that flat-amount till I have the opportunity to re-(=up-)calculate.
You obviously have a rare "knack" for this college basketball results-market (resulting in long-term +EV)...and, amazingly enough, for a number of other sports as well. Please continue on with THIS project EXACTLY as usual, sir...take no account of me...i'm strapped in for the bumpy ride and honored to be privy to your thoughts and plays (& promise to do so without bitchnmoaning during the inevitable rough patches that occur) as the rest of the season unfolds.Comment -
2.7.12
[7pm ET]
Florida-Kentucky Total Three Point Shots Made Over 13.5 [-130]
Dabbling in props again tonight. Like this one as Florida is one of the most three point happy teams in D1. They average ten makes per game and have hit for double digit threes in four of their last six. Kentucky isn't the prolific three point squad of yester-year, but they have enough shooters like Lamb, Miller, Wiltjer and even Terence Jones who can get hot and add to this total. Wildcats are capable of putting up anywhere from 4-8 threes most nights depending on the number of attempts. Both defenses have been giving up a bit from deep late at around 37% allowed over their last five each. I think if Florida puts up their usual 25 or so threes and UK gets at least a dozen attempts, this will have a solid shot with Florida obviously being the banker to do most of the damage. I say if they make at least nine, then Kentucky should damn well finish it off with at least five for us.
[9pm ET]
Auburn +5 [-105]
Alabama is without Tony Mitchell tonight due to suspension. The Tide are 2-4 on the road, while Auburn stands at 12-1 at home. The 12 wins aren't very sexy as far as the opponents, but they do stand at 3-1 in SEC play on their home court. 'Bama has lost three straight SEC road games after beating Georgia. Auburn is 5-1 ATS at home and plays stingy D. With the Tide without one of their key scoring cogs, this should become even more a low scoring grinder. Rebounding is big here. When Auburn is even or plus on the boards, they usually are right in the mix for the W. Have a free play to burn as well and will use it on the Auburn ML here @ +200 for a small play as well.Comment -
Waited and now getting Auburn @ +5.5, so booked.Comment -
Can't buy a three pointer in this damn Florida game. 1 for 12 combined. That prop is dead.Comment -
[2nd Half] Iowa State-Oklahoma State Under 75 [-110]Comment -
Three point prop hits thanks to Kentucky. Under is boned.Comment -
Ayyyyeeee! Slipped under @ 73. Wow. Very fortunate.Comment -
[2nd Half] Creighton-Evansville Under 79 [-105]Comment -
[2nd Half] Alabama-Auburn Over 65 [-120]Comment -
This is going to be f-ing terrible. Needed 9 pts to push with 4:00 left. And still need 8 with 2:00 left.
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Brutal. Three points in 4:00 minutes.
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3-2, but that last one left a bitter taste in my mouth.
Overall Record: 236-181-2 [+40.67]
2nd Halves: 165-113-6 [+41.85]Comment -
2.8.12
[7pm ET]
Georgetown-Syracuse Total Three Point Shots Made Over 10.5 [-130]
Low number here to me even though we're not looking at two teams that throw up a ton of threes. Still, the 2-3 zone of the Orange invites three point shots and the Hoyas are one of the most efficient squads in D1 against zone Ds. They've got some depth as far as shooters, but expect Clark, Starks and Thompson to be the main culprits here. Watch Porter off the bench. The Orange are one of those teams that don't shoot a great percentage, but are home to several streaky shooters. Waiters, Jardine and Fair can all get hot as well as Triche. Carter-Williams may have earned some extra PT with his play against St.John's and he showed he too can drain the 3. The Hoyas average six makes per game, but I think that can be more tonight if they find the holes in the zone. Orange are averaging about six makes per game as well, although as I said more streaky - so you could get three from them or eight or anywhere between. I'd settle for 4-6 and let the Hoyas do the rest.
[6:30pm ET]
Michigan State -14.5 [-110]
Penn State is terrible on the road, 2-9 ATS and Michigan State is 8-3 ATS at home. State has smashed far better teams like Purdue, Indiana and Minnesota by this number. As long as the Spartans defend the arc, they should run away with this in the end.Comment -
[2nd Half] Cincinnati-St.John's Under 70 [-110]Comment -
[2nd Half] Rice-Houston Under 77.5 [-105]Comment -
[2nd Half] Michigan-Nebraska Under 63 [-110]Comment -
2nd halves not falling well tonight. Feel naked with ESPN's box scores down. Having to use Sportsline's - I blame them for bad voodoo. Started out nice with the threes and Michigan State. Shit since.Comment -
F-ing stupid ass kids in this Rice-Houston game. Houston down 7 with 9 seconds left and they foul. 81 points. Stupid fukks.Comment -
Plugging away.
[2nd Half] Notre Dame-West Virginia Under 67.5 [-110]Comment -
Overall Record: 239-185-2 [+39.32]
2nd Halves: 166-116-6 [+39.50]
Well the last one barely slips in so the 2nd halves don't go 0-fer. 3-4 day thanks to some crappy 2nd halves.Comment
