I was asked to explain why I felt strongly about UCLA tomorrow, and that's no problem.
Saturday
Game 1, LSU +3 vs. Texas (Atlanta, Georgia)
Well, this game is a true coin toss from my perspective. The difference to me is that LSU has seen teams like Texas, but Texas hasn't seen anyone like LSU. Texas plays much like UCONN and Florida. Noone plays like LSU. The closest comparison would be Memphis, but that is a stretch (Tyrus Thomas makes Rodney Carney look like Greg Ostertag).
Anyway, Texas only had one thing going for them against WVU. They outrebounded them, and were able to get easy second-chance points. That won't be the case against an LSU team that is dominant inside and has athletes all over the place.
Glen Davis and Tyrus Thomas were saddled with foul trouble early against Duke, but the Tigers got strong bench play, notably from Lazarre, and were able to maintain their lead. Texas has a deep frontcourt as well, and this will be an interesting battle to watch. One key, in my opinion, is that Lamarcus Aldredge plays well against soft players, but struggles against strong presences. Witness Aldredge's performance against Kevin Pittsnogle (a great player, but not a good interior defender), where he appeared unstoppable. But, when he runs into someone like Taj Gray, he looks lost.
I really liked the way the Tigers defended the perimeter against Duke, and I think that will be a key again. Texas has some good shooters, but LSU has playmakers and lockdown defenders.
LSU is 7-2 against the number as an underdog this season, and they are playing as well as anyone in the tournament. Plus, they'll have me there wearing purple and screaming at the officials. This one should be a good one that comes down to the wire. Darrell Mitchell is the difference.
LSU 65, Texas 63
1* LSU +3 -105
Game 2, UCLA +3 vs. Memphis (Oakland, California)
Well, this line is rising, and (no offense to anyone who is opposite me here) I think it is because the public is foolish. Not that Memphis can't win this game, but the public is overreacting to UCLA's poor early performance against the Zags, and maybe thinking of the first meeting between these teams.
In the first meeting, Memphis won 88-80 in a game that wasn't as close as the score indicated. My, how things have changed. UCLA was, at that point, a soft team that has since been hardened, especially on the defensive end, by coach Ben Howland. Now the Bruins play the type of tenacious defense that is necessary to stifle a potent team like Memphis.
These last two points sort of go hand in hand. It's one thing to beat the murderer's row of Oral Roberts, Bucknell, and Bradley. It's quite another to be playing what amounts to a road game against the best team from a major conference 2,500 miles from home. Also, playing in Conference USA doesn't provide the experience for a big test like this. Memphis hasn't played a team from a major conference since January 18th, and hasn't covered against a team from a major conference since December 17th.
Teams don't breeze through to the Final 4. Memphis has gotten an easy draw to this point, and UCLA has been battle tested. That will show up if this is a close game.
UCLA 72, Memphis 65
3* UCLA +3 -101
1* UCLA ML +146
Saturday
Game 1, LSU +3 vs. Texas (Atlanta, Georgia)
Well, this game is a true coin toss from my perspective. The difference to me is that LSU has seen teams like Texas, but Texas hasn't seen anyone like LSU. Texas plays much like UCONN and Florida. Noone plays like LSU. The closest comparison would be Memphis, but that is a stretch (Tyrus Thomas makes Rodney Carney look like Greg Ostertag).
Anyway, Texas only had one thing going for them against WVU. They outrebounded them, and were able to get easy second-chance points. That won't be the case against an LSU team that is dominant inside and has athletes all over the place.
Glen Davis and Tyrus Thomas were saddled with foul trouble early against Duke, but the Tigers got strong bench play, notably from Lazarre, and were able to maintain their lead. Texas has a deep frontcourt as well, and this will be an interesting battle to watch. One key, in my opinion, is that Lamarcus Aldredge plays well against soft players, but struggles against strong presences. Witness Aldredge's performance against Kevin Pittsnogle (a great player, but not a good interior defender), where he appeared unstoppable. But, when he runs into someone like Taj Gray, he looks lost.
I really liked the way the Tigers defended the perimeter against Duke, and I think that will be a key again. Texas has some good shooters, but LSU has playmakers and lockdown defenders.
LSU is 7-2 against the number as an underdog this season, and they are playing as well as anyone in the tournament. Plus, they'll have me there wearing purple and screaming at the officials. This one should be a good one that comes down to the wire. Darrell Mitchell is the difference.
LSU 65, Texas 63
1* LSU +3 -105
Game 2, UCLA +3 vs. Memphis (Oakland, California)
Well, this line is rising, and (no offense to anyone who is opposite me here) I think it is because the public is foolish. Not that Memphis can't win this game, but the public is overreacting to UCLA's poor early performance against the Zags, and maybe thinking of the first meeting between these teams.
In the first meeting, Memphis won 88-80 in a game that wasn't as close as the score indicated. My, how things have changed. UCLA was, at that point, a soft team that has since been hardened, especially on the defensive end, by coach Ben Howland. Now the Bruins play the type of tenacious defense that is necessary to stifle a potent team like Memphis.
These last two points sort of go hand in hand. It's one thing to beat the murderer's row of Oral Roberts, Bucknell, and Bradley. It's quite another to be playing what amounts to a road game against the best team from a major conference 2,500 miles from home. Also, playing in Conference USA doesn't provide the experience for a big test like this. Memphis hasn't played a team from a major conference since January 18th, and hasn't covered against a team from a major conference since December 17th.
Teams don't breeze through to the Final 4. Memphis has gotten an easy draw to this point, and UCLA has been battle tested. That will show up if this is a close game.
UCLA 72, Memphis 65
3* UCLA +3 -101
1* UCLA ML +146
