Tracking New System (80% in 1st week)

[shopbar picks]

this is great info. Thanx for your time doing it. I like psu on the road+8

[DuncHen22]

this is great info. Thanx for your time doing it. I like psu on the road+8

Thanks, man! Cheers!

[glassjaw]

Thanks Dunchen!

I'm doing a labby on each Tier. Lets see what happens..

So far it looks very good.

[DuncHen22]

3-1 so far today (2-1 in tier 1) with just one more tier 3 pick, so we're guaranteed another positive day!

Let's go, LSU!

[primetime27]

Excellent work, i my have to jump on board with you

[DuncHen22]

1/2:

Tier 1:
Charleston +2 LOSS
Portland State +2 WIN
FIU +2 WIN

Tier 3:
LSU +6 LOSS
Penn State +8 WIN

3-2 +0.8 units

T1: 37-21 (64%) +13.9 units
T2: 42-24 (64%) +15.6 units
T3: 54-35 (61%) +15.5 units

[hairneil]

just saw this. interesting

[DuncHen22]

1/3:

[B]Tier 1:
[/B]Fresno St +2.5
(EDIT: Not sure why I wrote down Fresno State at +2.5. It should have been -2.5 and therefore is not a play)

Tier 2:
St John's +3
Georgia State +8

Tier 3:
Canisius +5

[shopbar picks]

thanx still a positive day. I feel once they get back to the routine of school. Coming out of the holidays, This system will get stronger. Once the teams focus is stirictly bball

[flop]

Hey Duncan, I have been looking at your thread daily and your doing great! I'm going to use your picks tonight for the first time, how much do I bet on each tier?

[sporty1]

1/3:

Tier 1:
Fresno St +2.5

Tier 2:
St John's +3
Georgia State +8

Tier 3:
Canisius +5

Fresno St + 2 1/2 is wrong bro ..

[DuncHen22]

Fresno St + 2 1/2 is wrong bro ..

Oh man, thanks for the catch! I have no idea how that happened. But there is no play there

[DuncHen22]

Hey Duncan, I have been looking at your thread daily and your doing great! I'm going to use your picks tonight for the first time, how much do I bet on each tier?

I'm just using 1 unit for each. It hasn't been proven that one tier is all that much better than any other yet so I'm just keeping it flat. If you're betting with real money though, I'd suggest going with less than a unit for now, since this system is so new and unproven. Anything you do is at your own risk, of course.

[celtics3388]

Dunc, where do you get these lines from? I use BoDog which is traditionally an underdog site and they are all either a point or 1/2 point lower than you have here

[celtics3388]

would they still be plays under your systems if the lines were

St. John's +2
Georgia St +7.5
Canisius +4

[peterpan19]

GL tonight, looks very nice
Also what opening lines do you use?

[DuncHen22]

GL tonight, looks very nice
Also what opening lines do you use?

I use Pinnacle just because they're usually one of the first ones out. Most books open with close to the same. I personally use 5dimes for betting, but it's nice to use Pinnacle for these plays so I can jump on 5dimes' lines the moment they're put out.

What I think I'll start doing, though, is including the differential between the spread and KP's predictions. That way if the line moves, you know whether or not it's still playable. Like if the diff is 4 and the line moves a point, I'd still play it. But if the diff is already 2, and it moves even 1/2 a point, I wouldn't. Regardless of diff though, I generally don't like playing things that have moved more than a point, which is why I try to jump on the first lines out.

[DuncHen22]

would they still be plays under your systems if the lines were

St. John's +2
Georgia St +7.5
Canisius +4

No, sorry, they were all a differential of 2 to begin with so I wouldn't play them if they've moved.

I'll start putting the differential next to the picks so you know in the future.

[psv777ua]

[DuncHen22]

Dunc, where do you get these lines from? I use BoDog which is traditionally an underdog site and they are all either a point or 1/2 point lower than you have here

Yeah, I tried BoDog once but left because they are consistently slow on putting lines out, so any big moves are already adjusted for by the time they're out. I personally use 5Dimes but I'm thinking about switching to MatchBook because they usually have the best deals.

[celtics3388]

I thought that might be the issue with Bodog, they usually won't post until about noon the day of. Anyways I'm a fan of the system its seems pretty consistent thus far, appreciate the effort!

[TEXAS MICKEY]

Dunc,

System looking good, will be playing these tonight for real money, small units.

[DuncHen22]

1/3:

Tier 2:
St John's +3 WIN
Georgia State +8 WIN

Tier 3:
Canisius +5 LOSS

Tier 2: 2-0 +2 units
Tier 3: 2-1 +0.9 units

T1: 37-21 (64%) +13.9 units
T2: 44-24 (65%) +17.6 units
T3: 56-36 (61%) +16.4 units

Not too shabby.

[DuncHen22]

I'm now putting the differential between the spread and KP's predictions in parentheses next to the plays. Keep in mind my cutoff is 2, and I would advice against playing anything that's moved more than a point.But you can do whatever you want at your own risk.
1/4:

Tier 1:
Pittsburgh -6 (3)

Tier 3:
Indiana +10 (4)

That's it for today. Now that school is starting back up we have fewer games during the week. Don't be surprised if there are no plays sometimes.

[money2make]

great work, loving the system, subscribed to the thread and might pick up on it tomorrow

[DuncHen22]

great work, loving the system, subscribed to the thread and might pick up on it tomorrow

Thanks! This has been my most successful system yet so I'm still personally skeptical (that's just how I am) but it's looking good so far and I can't argue with math. I'll keep this going for as long as it's winning!

[TEXAS MICKEY]

Good Luck tonight DuncHen. Tailed last night and won

[jaxson]

I'm now putting the differential between the spread and KP's predictions in parentheses next to the plays. Keep in mind my cutoff is 2, and I would advice against playing anything that's moved more than a point.But you can do whatever you want at your own risk.
1/4:

Tier 1:
Pittsburgh -6 (3)

Tier 3:
Indiana +10 (4)

That's it for today. Now that school is starting back up we have fewer games during the week. Don't be surprised if there are no plays sometimes.

Good stuff! I used to follow kp but I never threw out the double digit lines. That seems to make a huge difference...

I do have a question though. Why are you taking Pitt when kp has them winning by 7??

[Axis]

Good work man! I actually use something similar to this for NCAABB and it has worked well (round 61% clip) like yours...

Nice to cross picks with someone else who is having success...

G/L...

[DuncHen22]

Good stuff! I used to follow kp but I never threw out the double digit lines. That seems to make a huge difference...

I do have a question though. Why are you taking Pitt when kp has them winning by 7??

Wow, that's a good catch, he must have changed something but everything was up to date through 1/2 when I copied it. The info I took from his page yesterday said PITT 81, PROV 72, which is 9 (I copy and paste straight from his site and let a formula figure out the difference for each game). Now it says 80-73. So maybe I should wait longer from now on so it's current through the previous day (as opposed to 2 days ago)? I'll definitely look into this more. I wonder if any of my other losses would have been caught had I looked later on...

[DuncHen22]

Good work man! I actually use something similar to this for NCAABB and it has worked well (round 61% clip) like yours...

Nice to cross picks with someone else who is having success...

G/L...

Great to hear! BOL!

[Axis]

I checked KP today...am I seeing things wrong or does he only have Pitt winning by 7, but you say there is a 3 point difference from the line?

Just wondering if I missed something :shrug:

EDIT: Sorry, didn't see someone else already pointed this out!!

[LockPickMaster]

I checked KP today...am I seeing things wrong or does he only have Pitt winning by 7, but you say there is a 3 point difference from the line?

Just wondering if I missed something :shrug:

EDIT: Sorry, didn't see someone else already pointed this out!!

How is Pitt doing, will they cover tonight

[DuncHen22]

Pitt didn't cover (won by 4). It scares be a bit that KP's prediction changed like that. I'm going to post tomorrow's picks soon and check up on them in the morning again to make sure KP's predictions haven't changed (I'm not sure what time he updates his stuff).

So now that we've discovered a potential flaw, I suggest taking these initial picks with a grain of salt (for now), and just wait until they can be confirmed in the morning. I love the idea of getting in on the initial lines but if I have to wait for KP's updated predictions every time, that isn't feasible.

At least Indiana covered today!

[DuncHen22]

1/5

Tier 1:
St Bonaventure +1 (2)
Air Force -2 (2)
Duquesne -4 (2)
George Mason -5 (3)
Purdue -7 (2)
[ADDED] UC-Irvine -6 (3)

Tier 2:
Georgia Southern +6 (3)

Tier 3:
Drexel +4.5 (3)

I'll check back in the morning to make sure KP's predictions still stand.