Possibly the curse of death for all of us UT backers today. I HATE when this happens.
Texas Longhorns: The best bet in the country?
By JULIAN DICKINSON | February 28, 2008 | 4 comments
send to a friend print version rss feeds AddThis Social Bookmark Button
Who is the best team in the country?
The usual answer is UCLA, or maybe North Carolina. Some people are even still sweet on one of those teams in Tennessee.
But what about the Texas Longhorns?
You know: big school in Austin…burnt orange…11-2 in the Big 12? For some reason, nobody’s talking about this team even though they have already beaten top contenders like Tennessee and UCLA earlier this season. Even knocking off Kansas a couple of weeks ago barely made a ripple in the college hoops ocean.
Did I mention they’re currently on a seven-game winning streak against the spread?
The most amazing thing is that, in spite of all this, oddsmakers don’t seem to be too high on the Horns, either. You’d think a 14-8 ATS record and their current streak would at least create a blip on the radar, but for all the money the bookies have paid out to Texas bettors recently, the odds don’t seem to be keeping up with the red-hot Horns.
Right after the win over Kansas on Feb. 11 as 5 ½-point underdogs, Texas went into Baylor as an underdog. Then, in their most recent game, oddsmakers spotted them 3 ½ points in Manhattan against a Kansas State team that lost three of its last four games.
But Chuck Esposito, vice president of race and sportsbook operations at Caesar's Palace, says it's not bookmakers who are all wrong about the Longhorns; it's the bettors.
"Although Texas is in a tough conference and has been playing well, the public has actually bet against them in two of their last four games," Esposito said. "The line versus Baylor went from pick to Baylor -2 and the line against K-State went from K-State –1 ½ to –3 ½."
There's on guy who's clear on how good this team is. After losing to Texas last week, K-State superstar Michael Beasley had this to say about the Longhorns: "They've been playing better than any team in the country."
Amazingly, nobody seems to have noticed this fact.
Let me just reiterate that Texas is 24-4 straight-up this season. They haven’t given up the cash in a game since Jan. 30. They have one of the best players in the country in D.J. Augustin. All this and they’re still only seeing an average handicap of -4 in Big 12 play.
Compare that to UCLA, which has only been an underdog in one game this year and, on average, goes into each game as a 10-point favorite. North Carolina’s average handicap is more than -11. Something seem a little out of whack to you?
Say what you want about Texas, but they’ve won their last three games by an average of more than 17 points. If that’s not serious value, then I don’t know what is.
The way Texas is playing right now, it doesn’t look like anyone can touch them. They’re on the fast track to a No. 1 tournament seed, but more importantly, if oddsmakers don’t adjust to the kind of victories they’re putting up night after night, they just might continue to be the best bet in the country.
Texas Longhorns: The best bet in the country?
By JULIAN DICKINSON | February 28, 2008 | 4 comments
send to a friend print version rss feeds AddThis Social Bookmark Button
Who is the best team in the country?
The usual answer is UCLA, or maybe North Carolina. Some people are even still sweet on one of those teams in Tennessee.
But what about the Texas Longhorns?
You know: big school in Austin…burnt orange…11-2 in the Big 12? For some reason, nobody’s talking about this team even though they have already beaten top contenders like Tennessee and UCLA earlier this season. Even knocking off Kansas a couple of weeks ago barely made a ripple in the college hoops ocean.
Did I mention they’re currently on a seven-game winning streak against the spread?
The most amazing thing is that, in spite of all this, oddsmakers don’t seem to be too high on the Horns, either. You’d think a 14-8 ATS record and their current streak would at least create a blip on the radar, but for all the money the bookies have paid out to Texas bettors recently, the odds don’t seem to be keeping up with the red-hot Horns.
Right after the win over Kansas on Feb. 11 as 5 ½-point underdogs, Texas went into Baylor as an underdog. Then, in their most recent game, oddsmakers spotted them 3 ½ points in Manhattan against a Kansas State team that lost three of its last four games.
But Chuck Esposito, vice president of race and sportsbook operations at Caesar's Palace, says it's not bookmakers who are all wrong about the Longhorns; it's the bettors.
"Although Texas is in a tough conference and has been playing well, the public has actually bet against them in two of their last four games," Esposito said. "The line versus Baylor went from pick to Baylor -2 and the line against K-State went from K-State –1 ½ to –3 ½."
There's on guy who's clear on how good this team is. After losing to Texas last week, K-State superstar Michael Beasley had this to say about the Longhorns: "They've been playing better than any team in the country."
Amazingly, nobody seems to have noticed this fact.
Let me just reiterate that Texas is 24-4 straight-up this season. They haven’t given up the cash in a game since Jan. 30. They have one of the best players in the country in D.J. Augustin. All this and they’re still only seeing an average handicap of -4 in Big 12 play.
Compare that to UCLA, which has only been an underdog in one game this year and, on average, goes into each game as a 10-point favorite. North Carolina’s average handicap is more than -11. Something seem a little out of whack to you?
Say what you want about Texas, but they’ve won their last three games by an average of more than 17 points. If that’s not serious value, then I don’t know what is.
The way Texas is playing right now, it doesn’t look like anyone can touch them. They’re on the fast track to a No. 1 tournament seed, but more importantly, if oddsmakers don’t adjust to the kind of victories they’re putting up night after night, they just might continue to be the best bet in the country.