Cheme82's CBB plays for November

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  • impper
    SBR Sharp
    • 11-11-10
    • 490

    #491
    wow, 5 of my 7 winning dogs on the day won their game outright. need to calculate putting .5 of a unit on every dog play we come up with... hah
    Comment
    • impper
      SBR Sharp
      • 11-11-10
      • 490

      #492
      Originally posted by jolmscheid
      So Chili and impper...I am sorry to be annoying, ha ha...but In YOUR GUYS' Opinion, if I were to place bets early in the day, should I set a cap on what Pinny's odds NEED to be in order to ensure myself a better opportunity of the line moving in my favor?? Like should I only bet on the sides where Pinny is leaning towards at a minimum of -107 or something?? Thanks guys.
      that seems like a reasonable guideline, though if you have a slight -106 edge on a number the calculator says is particularly valuable, that can work too
      Comment
      • chilidog
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 04-05-09
        • 10305

        #493
        Originally posted by impper
        wow, 5 of my 7 winning dogs on the day won their game outright. need to calculate putting .5 of a unit on every dog play we come up with... hah
        Wow, that's awesome - now just imagine actually hitting a +300 ML dog
        Comment
        • jolmscheid
          Restricted User
          • 02-20-10
          • 3256

          #494
          Yea impper and Chili...I am 8-3-1 so far today with Oral Roberts, Sacramento State, and Arizona State still in game, so HOPEFULLY a nice day awaits if these finish off strong...especially the Oral Roberts as that was my heaviest play of the day!

          I need to check if I beat / matched the closer on hopefully most of my plays today.....


          And yea I had a handful of my dogs win outright today too!! Do you think there is any way we could make it profitable betting them on the ML? ....that might make things WAY to complicated though huh...
          Comment
          • chilidog
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 04-05-09
            • 10305

            #495
            I'm on Sacramento State as well, I'm hoping they'll maintain the lead, or at least win the bet for us

            I think adding in ML would be harsh, heh. Maybe there's a method to it, but I dunno. I'm busy enough as is with running the numbers - so I'm just gonna keep it this way.
            Comment
            • jolmscheid
              Restricted User
              • 02-20-10
              • 3256

              #496
              I agree totally with you Chili....I think we definitely have enough bets as it is each day....let's go Sac. State Chili
              Comment
              • chilidog
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 04-05-09
                • 10305

                #497
                Hell yah, I think I have something like 25-30 bets that I made today. I don't think that I'm going to do as good as I did yesterday (25 units yesterday), but I'm hoping to pull away with +10 units today. I'll be happy with that
                Comment
                • incomeraise
                  SBR MVP
                  • 11-28-09
                  • 1136

                  #498
                  I didn't play the last few games...was busy with the fam but made 15 units today...so that was pretty good
                  Comment
                  • chilidog
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 04-05-09
                    • 10305

                    #499
                    Originally posted by incomeraise
                    I didn't play the last few games...was busy with the fam but made 15 units today...so that was pretty good


                    15 units in a day is ALWAYS a good thing!
                    Comment
                    • incomeraise
                      SBR MVP
                      • 11-28-09
                      • 1136

                      #500
                      Yep for sure...thats why I didnt mind calling it a day hehe
                      Comment
                      • jolmscheid
                        Restricted User
                        • 02-20-10
                        • 3256

                        #501
                        I went 11-4-1 for +10 units tonight, so hopefully it's a sign of good things boys! I think I am ONLY going to do the games where the line is at LEAST -107 shaded at Pinny as 12 out of my 16 plays matched or beat the closer...
                        Comment
                        • impper
                          SBR Sharp
                          • 11-11-10
                          • 490

                          #502
                          Originally posted by jolmscheid
                          Yea impper and Chili...I am 8-3-1 so far today with Oral Roberts, Sacramento State, and Arizona State still in game, so HOPEFULLY a nice day awaits if these finish off strong...especially the Oral Roberts as that was my heaviest play of the day! I need to check if I beat / matched the closer on hopefully most of my plays today..... And yea I had a handful of my dogs win outright today too!! Do you think there is any way we could make it profitable betting them on the ML? ....that might make things WAY to complicated though huh...
                          jolm, it's pretty easy to find out whether we should or not: let's track our dog plays, the ML, and see whether throwing .5 or 1 unit at every dog is profitable or not over some 200-300 plays. that's about the baseline i'd say for an experiment
                          Comment
                          • impper
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 11-11-10
                            • 490

                            #503
                            nice job guys. i ate a small loss today but it's because i'm playing around with nba totals
                            Comment
                            • impper
                              SBR Sharp
                              • 11-11-10
                              • 490

                              #504
                              Originally posted by chilidog
                              I think adding in ML would be harsh, heh. Maybe there's a method to it, but I dunno. I'm busy enough as is with running the numbers - so I'm just gonna keep it this way.
                              the logic to it, without running a bit of math, is that by getting an edge on a dog we're already swinging on a favorable bet. there are 3 possibilities for a dog: they lose by the spread, they cover the spread, or they win outright. Normally, and this is true over tens of thosuands of trials, the dog loses the bet about 50% of the time, so that leaves the other 50% to covering the spread OR winning outright. however, when we're buying points on favored lines the dog is only outright losing some 44-48% of the time, depending on how much pinny is favoring it and whether we're getting a favored line.

                              This could throw the math of betting on dog moneylines significantly in our favor. Let's test it
                              Comment
                              • pokerwhiz90
                                SBR MVP
                                • 10-02-10
                                • 2618

                                #505
                                Keep it up impper, I still don't have a clear idea of how to calculate the edge, but I'm trying!
                                Comment
                                • chilidog
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 04-05-09
                                  • 10305

                                  #506
                                  Very nice, jolm! I'm glad you finally got it. I picked up +12.4 units yesterday. So in the past 4 days, I've picked up +45 units!
                                  Comment
                                  • pokerwhiz90
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 10-02-10
                                    • 2618

                                    #507
                                    hey chili checkout the nba thread, and tell me what im doing wrong and right
                                    Comment
                                    • jennahazeplays
                                      Restricted User
                                      • 03-15-10
                                      • 474

                                      #508
                                      sick day man congrats
                                      Comment
                                      • chilidog
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 04-05-09
                                        • 10305

                                        #509
                                        Originally posted by impper
                                        nice job guys. i ate a small loss today but it's because i'm playing around with nba totals
                                        Totals as well? Damnnnn. I put such a large chunk of my bankroll into play already when there's 30+ games on the board, so I'll pass on anything else, heh.

                                        Originally posted by pokerwhiz90
                                        hey chili checkout the nba thread, and tell me what im doing wrong and right
                                        Replied.

                                        Originally posted by jennahazeplays
                                        sick day man congrats


                                        Good username, btw
                                        Comment
                                        • lilchal215
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 10-16-10
                                          • 126

                                          #510
                                          chili what are you picks today...and thanks for the profits you have made me
                                          Comment
                                          • chilidog
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 04-05-09
                                            • 10305

                                            #511
                                            Originally posted by lilchal215
                                            chili what are you picks today...and thanks for the profits you have made me
                                            I won't know the picks until about 30 minutes before gametime; that's when I run the numbers, make my bets, and post the plays that I made here.
                                            Comment
                                            • impper
                                              SBR Sharp
                                              • 11-11-10
                                              • 490

                                              #512
                                              Originally posted by chilidog

                                              Totals as well? Damnnnn. I put such a large chunk of my bankroll into play already when there's 30+ games on the board, so I'll pass on anything else, heh.



                                              Replied.





                                              Good username, btw
                                              i'm working on a totals system and part of my bankroll is dedicated to that.
                                              Comment
                                              • chilidog
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 04-05-09
                                                • 10305

                                                #513
                                                Originally posted by impper

                                                i'm working on a totals system and part of my bankroll is dedicated to that.
                                                Cool cool. I'm already starting to wonder what we'll do come March, when baseball season starts, heh. I want this thing to be year-round
                                                Comment
                                                • impper
                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                  • 11-11-10
                                                  • 490

                                                  #514
                                                  i started out red-hot on totals but have come back down to earth pretty hard. im not sure if the system is only average or if the books are catching on and making better game total lines or if it's just variance
                                                  Comment
                                                  • chilidog
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 04-05-09
                                                    • 10305

                                                    #515
                                                    Texas A&M +4 -165 3.99% - WIN
                                                    Comment
                                                    • ebbearsfb1
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 12-07-08
                                                      • 18815

                                                      #516
                                                      buying 4 points?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • pokerwhiz90
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 10-02-10
                                                        • 2618

                                                        #517
                                                        How many units is 3.99%
                                                        Comment
                                                        • chilidog
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 04-05-09
                                                          • 10305

                                                          #518
                                                          Originally posted by ebbearsfb1
                                                          buying 4 points?
                                                          No, my local has the line at +1. Looks like matchbook and bodog also have it at +1.

                                                          Originally posted by pokerwhiz90
                                                          How many units is 3.99%
                                                          I use the edge percentage as a percentage of my bankroll for that sport. It's not a percentage of my total bankroll. So, if my CBB bankroll was currently at 200 units, I'd be betting 8 units on it.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • chilidog
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 04-05-09
                                                            • 10305

                                                            #519
                                                            Heh, line on Texas A&M is now changing to -1.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • pokerwhiz90
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 10-02-10
                                                              • 2618

                                                              #520
                                                              Hey Chili, how many units on the texas did you put on?
                                                              Comment
                                                              • chilidog
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 04-05-09
                                                                • 10305

                                                                #521
                                                                I put 3.99% of my bankroll for CBB on it.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • dikgarland
                                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                                  • 10-07-10
                                                                  • 184

                                                                  #522
                                                                  good job and good luck today
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • chilidog
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 04-05-09
                                                                    • 10305

                                                                    #523
                                                                    Originally posted by dikgarland
                                                                    good job and good luck today
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • chilidog
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 04-05-09
                                                                      • 10305

                                                                      #524
                                                                      CBB-Harvard -1.5 -105 1.44% - WIN
                                                                      CBB-California +4.5 -165 2.84% - LOSS
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • jolmscheid
                                                                        Restricted User
                                                                        • 02-20-10
                                                                        • 3256

                                                                        #525
                                                                        Yea Chili and impper let's test our dog plays on the moneyline to see what happens...I mean my biggest play of the day yesterday was on Oral Roberts as an 11 Point dog and they won outright...that would have been a mighty fine payout on the MoneyLine...

                                                                        And impper...I just wanted to ask....how is your formula based? I have been using it but just want to kind of know WHY I am using those numbers? DOes the formula help maximize profits long term but safely?? Thanks bro...thanks too Chili....
                                                                        Comment
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