1. 03-09-23 02:36 PM #176
    matt711
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    Florida game runner way under, of coarse OT, damn
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  2. 03-09-23 05:54 PM #177
    Renegades
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    Unders

    tues. 20-6
    wed. 19-17
    thurs. 15-7. So far
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  3. 03-09-23 05:55 PM #178
    Renegades
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    54-30 right now
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  4. 03-10-23 06:53 AM #179
    Renegades
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    Unders 70-49. 59% Tues thru thurs
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  5. 03-10-23 11:37 AM #180
    Renegades
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    M tenn st leading scorer is out
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  6. 03-11-23 04:24 PM #181
    Renegades
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    At least its not close losses anymore, these games are under by 10-15 pts in the first half
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  7. 03-14-23 12:12 PM #182
    matt711
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    Quote Originally Posted by Renegades View Post
    Unders

    tues. 20-6
    wed. 19-17
    thurs. 15-7. So far
    Good info, seems unders come in streaks, especially tournament time.
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  8. 03-14-23 04:45 PM #183
    Renegades
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    Yeah unders were +money every day in the conf tourneys. Lets see what happens in the ncaa tourney
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  9. 03-16-23 10:50 AM #184
    HeeluvaGuy
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    I don’t bet a lot of futures, but I played Duke to make the Sweet 16 +155 on DraftKings. They’re -265 vs ORU today so +155 implies roughly a -118 ML in the next round. Duke will be favored by more than that against either Tennessee or Louisiana if they advance. And they’re playing excellent ball right now.
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  10. 03-16-23 08:58 PM #185
    HeeluvaGuy
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    Betstamp is glitching today. I only played those games once.
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  11. 03-18-23 09:24 PM #186
    Renegades
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    Unders ncaa tourney

    10-6 thurs
    14-2 friday
    6-2 sat
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  12. 03-18-23 09:25 PM #187
    Renegades
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    The worst shooting tourney I’ve ever watched. 90% of the games are in the 60’s
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  13. 04-05-23 10:42 AM #188
    barnstorm
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    HeeluvaGuy went 263-206-1 (56.4%) in College Hoops this year on BetStamp as tips4tacos.

    After juice, that was good for +41 units.

    Well done.


    Points Awarded:

    matt711 gave barnstorm 25 Betpoint(s) for this post.

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  14. 04-05-23 11:59 AM #189
    HeeluvaGuy
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    Thanks. I was just coming to post the screen grab but couldn’t find the thread.

    Not my best tournament, but still managed 18-15 for +2.86u.

    Taking some time off to recharge a bit but might fire up some MLB in a few weeks. GL to all!
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  15. 04-05-23 12:13 PM #190
    barnstorm
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    Do you do MLB Totals, or sides, or RLs?

    If Totals, do you base it on Umpires? Or Pitcher vs Hitter histories?
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  16. 04-05-23 12:26 PM #191
    HeeluvaGuy
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    Last season I put together a model for 1st inning runs that did pretty well. Here's a link to those results: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

    The problem I run into with Betstamp on those is that they only offer Caesars lines for Y/NRFI and the success of the model depends greatly on finding the best price available so posting those plays on Betstamp won't yield realistic results. If I decide to run that again and you're interested I can message you the link to the spreadsheet.

    I also play around with props and I pull daily batter v. pitcher numbers and post them here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing
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  17. 04-18-23 04:04 PM #192
    HeeluvaGuy
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    Doubt there’s much traffic here these days but the burnout from hoops has passed and I’ve cranked up the first inning run model for this year. I hope to update it daily, but I have some trips planned that may cause some breaks. I’ll try to note that on the doc when it happens. Here’s the link for anyone interested: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...jC_4o11SY/edit
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  18. 06-28-23 02:09 PM #193
    coolguy73739
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    College Basketball total bet is the most difficult bet to win imho. I know you Heeluvaguy is obsessed with totals bet but I'm not sure how you managed to stay on top for all these years with these crazy bets. Imo even books find it hard to handle barring a few games so HATS OFF TO YOU. Pace is the biggest culprit.
    I have chased that passion of total bets for last many years but no success. I'm fully focused on point spread bets for next season.
    Good luck my friend.
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  19. 09-16-23 11:44 AM #194
    barnstorm
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    Any good NFL or College Football cappers to follow here or on BetStamp?

    College hoops coming up soon!
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  20. 09-27-23 11:21 PM #195
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by barnstorm View Post
    Any good NFL or College Football cappers to follow here or on BetStamp?

    College hoops coming up soon!
    Impressive showing by Heel. Very nice.

    I know this is early. But I'll post one comment:
    *Early Season Coll Bask can present some soft lines.
    ...Reason is pretty obvious. When Oddsmakers has 90% of their resources allocated to Football, some lines can slip thru the cracks.
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  21. 09-28-23 10:36 AM #196
    HeeluvaGuy
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    Impressive showing by Heel. Very nice.

    I know this is early. But I'll post one comment:
    *Early Season Coll Bask can present some soft lines.
    ...Reason is pretty obvious. When Oddsmakers has 90% of their resources allocated to Football, some lines can slip thru the cracks.
    Thanks for the compliment. Agree with your assessment of early season lines, especially in totals markets.

    @barnstorm - I haven't found anyone consistent with NCAAF. I have all but given up modeling it and am not even trying this season. I still bet NCAAF, but I don't post them to betstamp because it's pretty unreliable and just for fun at this point. Kind of like coolguy, I'm done banging my head against the NCAAF wall.

    I am planning to post NCAAB to bestamp when the season gets going.
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  22. 09-28-23 02:17 PM #197
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Salud, Heel. GL to you.

    NCAAFB has been humbling to me this year. Thought I had it figured out. Truth is that those lines are pretty sharp.

    Re: Coll Bask, I have a plan to bet it in the very early going. Per my note above, those early season lines can't possibly be backed by much Science. They just post #s with MOST of the focus on Football.
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  23. 10-17-23 10:59 AM #198
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Heel, good luck if you're in action this year.
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  24. 10-20-23 10:11 AM #199
    HeeluvaGuy
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    Heel, good luck if you're in action this year.
    I'm planning to and will post a link to my numbers here when I'm up and running. It takes about a month before I rely very heavily on my modeling, so the early season is a little like walking a tight rope without a net.
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  25. 10-30-23 10:53 AM #200
    bjb7223
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    Quote Originally Posted by HeeluvaGuy View Post
    Last season I put together a model for 1st inning runs that did pretty well. Here's a link to those results: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

    The problem I run into with Betstamp on those is that they only offer Caesars lines for Y/NRFI and the success of the model depends greatly on finding the best price available so posting those plays on Betstamp won't yield realistic results. If I decide to run that again and you're interested I can message you the link to the spreadsheet.

    I also play around with props and I pull daily batter v. pitcher numbers and post them here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing
    This is the kind of stuff ive been looking for on sBR, data analytics.
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  26. 10-30-23 04:34 PM #201
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by HeeluvaGuy View Post
    I'm planning to and will post a link to my numbers here when I'm up and running. It takes about a month before I rely very heavily on my modeling, so the early season is a little like walking a tight rope without a net.
    Absolutely, Heel. Very tough.

    It's a double-edged sword:
    *Tough for the handicapper to generate a solid projection.
    *Equally tough for the oddsmaker to post a solid early-season line.

    Good Luck.
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  27. 11-03-23 03:31 PM #202
    HeeluvaGuy
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    Alright guys, I posted my first picks for this season on betstamp (https://betstamp.app/u/tips4tacos). As mentioned above, these picks can be very difficult this early in the season. Use caution. But most of all, good luck to everyone!

    ETA: I'm going to hold off on posting the link to my model until we have a few weeks of games under our belt.
    Last edited by HeeluvaGuy; 11-03-23 at 03:34 PM.
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  28. 11-03-23 05:20 PM #203
    bjb7223
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    Quote Originally Posted by HeeluvaGuy View Post
    Alright guys, I posted my first picks for this season on betstamp (https://betstamp.app/u/tips4tacos). As mentioned above, these picks can be very difficult this early in the season. Use caution. But most of all, good luck to everyone!

    ETA: I'm going to hold off on posting the link to my model until we have a few weeks of games under our belt.
    excellent
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  29. 11-06-23 10:41 AM #204
    HeeluvaGuy
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    Absolutely, Heel. Very tough.

    It's a double-edged sword:
    *Tough for the handicapper to generate a solid projection.
    *Equally tough for the oddsmaker to post a solid early-season line.

    Good Luck.
    Right on cue, big line moves all over the place today. Buckle up!
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  30. 11-06-23 02:41 PM #205
    Capybara
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    What's up, Heel?! Best of luck this season!

    I haven't been in here at all lately, but from looking at a couple of threads, it seems like guys post plays in Betstamp? But what about Action? That's the app I've used to track my own plays for a while now (not to share, just to keep track of my exact profit/loss).

    Would love to follow some of the sharper SBR folks in there... Not sure how much I want to deal with changing apps, lol.
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  31. 11-07-23 08:20 AM #206
    HeeluvaGuy
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    Rough start yesterday. Fortunately, that CLV trophy is gonna look good in the case so not all is lost...

    Try to do better from here
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  32. 11-07-23 02:04 PM #207
    bjb7223
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    Quote Originally Posted by HeeluvaGuy View Post
    Rough start yesterday. Fortunately, that CLV trophy is gonna look good in the case so not all is lost...

    Try to do better from here
    lets go again,

    I see you have under in the North Texas game
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  33. 11-08-23 08:55 AM #208
    HeeluvaGuy
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    The only game I've won so far was the only game the line moved against me. Kind of bizarre, but it's a long season. I highly suggest waiting a couple of weeks to pay any attention to my picks. I will keep posting, but it's probably best to wait until the week of the 20th to tail.
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  34. 11-08-23 10:27 AM #209
    Capybara
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    Quote Originally Posted by HeeluvaGuy View Post
    The only game I've won so far was the only game the line moved against me. Kind of bizarre, but it's a long season. I highly suggest waiting a couple of weeks to pay any attention to my picks. I will keep posting, but it's probably best to wait until the week of the 20th to tail.
    Hang in there, Heel... Always appreciate the humble, transparent, articulate folks such as yourself. You'll come out on top I'm sure.
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  35. 11-10-23 10:04 AM #210
    HeeluvaGuy
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    If anyone is wondering why I'm on both sides of the Kansas game ... I clicked the wrong bet on Betstamp. My pick is Manhattan +36.
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