Yeah, I didn't take the Over, but took Nevada +5, and that melted down too! Nevada took so many bad and forced shots in the 2H, and missed many short ones. I thought they were a smart well coached team, but not last night.
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02-19-23 04:23 AM #141
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02-19-23 03:55 PM #142
Its prob time to pull the plug on maac overs
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02-20-23 10:15 AM #143
Any thoughts on the duke game? I like that gm over.
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02-22-23 11:54 AM #144
Would be nice if this seemingly unending run of one and two point losses would stop. Last night Akron started 0-15 from three and that one lost by 2. In the late game needed 4 points in the last 2 minutes and only got 2.
For of the last six losses are by a total of 6 points. Frustrating to say the least.
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02-22-23 12:28 PM #145
I am sure you will bounce back!.. Keep chugging along Mate! Good luck for today..
Originally Posted by HeeluvaGuy
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02-23-23 09:47 AM #146
Some some bad beats for sure. I didn't know about that late game needing only four points in the last two minutes and only getting two. Ouch. Late season college basketball always seems to get tougher. Originally Posted by HeeluvaGuy
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02-23-23 09:49 AM #147
Close losses. Blowout wins. Thats been the theme for Feb
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02-23-23 11:34 AM #148
February feels a lot worse than 36-38 -5.7u, huh? Three of the close calls break the other way and it’s a slightly positive month. Always amazing how razor thin the margin for error is.
Anyway, plenty of games still to go. Just FYI for this weekend, I should have Saturday’s plays out Friday night or early Saturday. Not 100% sure I’ll be able to do Sunday, but if so any plays will be made Sunday morning. Got a 2-day music festival to enjoy…Points Awarded:
matt711 gave HeeluvaGuy 10 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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02-23-23 11:35 AM #149
Also just noticed that Betstamp put me on the featured users list. What timing…
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02-23-23 02:03 PM #150
Enjoy the music festival
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02-23-23 08:42 PM #151
Gonna be a rough one tonight
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02-23-23 10:21 PM #152
How did Oral not go Over? Just needed 10 points in the last 3.5 minutes.
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02-24-23 08:04 AM #153
February is how. Really sorry folks. The wheels have come off these last couple of weeks. Originally Posted by barnstorm
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02-24-23 11:29 AM #154
With the caveat that not all CLV is created equally, I have beaten the closing line in each of my last 7 bets. I’ve won one of those games.
Last night I not only beat the closer in the UNT/Charlotte game, I beat the number RAS played. Still lost. Believe it or not, my CLV is better in February than it has been over the course of the rest of the season.
Sorry to vent, but the last couple of weeks have been odd to say the least.
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02-24-23 12:30 PM #155
March will roll my man, keep up the grind, definitely some bad beats this month!
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02-24-23 12:32 PM #156
Enjoy the Music Festival, thanks for your plays
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02-24-23 12:52 PM #157
Are featured users the top cappers? Originally Posted by HeeluvaGuy
Last edited by matt711; 02-24-23 at 12:55 PM.
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02-24-23 02:11 PM #158
I'm not sure what their criteria is. They put me on there last season so I reached out a few weeks ago and asked them what the criteria is since my record at the time was better than last season. Then they added me yesterday. Always impressive to start 0-3 after something like that happens. Originally Posted by matt711
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02-25-23 09:05 PM #159
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02-27-23 02:52 PM #160
I dont like that n fla gm tonight. They just played. Hit 20 threes and the gm went over by only 6. Add in a neutral site. Bellarmine is solid defensively. Just my opinion. I never root against anybody so I hope it hits but I would pass on this gm.
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02-27-23 09:02 PM #161
I was wrong. Nice hit! I was shocked how efficient on offense Bellarmine played. Great win for them
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02-28-23 11:04 AM #162
I didn’t like that it was a back to back game like that, but I don’t have any data to use to adjust for that sort of flukey scheduling so I went with what I had. Typically I don’t put a lot of stock in any one game when it comes to handicapping, but I did watch a lot of the previous game. Notably, even though that game only went over by a handful of points, it was always on pace to go over and even had 121 points with 10 minutes to play. Bellarmine went a cold at that point but the over was never really in doubt. Originally Posted by Renegades
Good thing for me it worked out because the late game was a clunker.
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02-28-23 03:26 PM #163
What do you use for pace of play? Kenpom?
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02-28-23 04:05 PM #164
I use his raw time of possession data to come up with my own predictions. I have adjustments for home/away, opponent strength, and even the time between when the ball goes through the net to the time it’s inbounded.
Very generally speaking, slower teams have more influence on pace than faster teams (there’s only so much you can do to speed a team up), better teams have more influence than worse teams (kind of a “duh,” but it took some time figuring out to what degree), and home teams influence pace more than away teams.
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02-28-23 04:18 PM #165
All of that makes sense to me. I definitely agree on slower paced teams having a greater influence. You can see this clearly when watching games. Thanks for the input.
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02-28-23 04:34 PM #166
That was one of those sayings that I always assumed to be true but still wanted to see the data. I hate stall ball, so my nightmare is watching slow teams who offensive rebound well. Saw a possession the other day that lasted a minute and a half between fouls and offensive rebounds. Wanted to gouge my eyes out. Originally Posted by Renegades
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02-28-23 05:42 PM #167
Thats why I hate Virginia games lol. They could be down 10 and they are still passing up open looks to move the ball around
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03-01-23 08:58 PM #168
This has gone off the rails. Im tapping out. Good luck with the rest of the season
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03-01-23 09:23 PM #169
Can't blame you a bit. Best of luck the rest of the way. Originally Posted by Renegades
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03-01-23 09:29 PM #170
Lost OSU by 1 and now the Bama under in OT. Pretty much sums up the last 4 weeks or so.
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03-02-23 01:32 PM #171
Head scratchers for sure. Some tough luck.
I had a game last night where I had the favorite -5. They were up 8 and in the last 6-7 seconds, they just let the other team grab rebounds and shoot 3s until they finally made one with one second to go. Can't blame them, but dayum! At least grab a loose ball or knock it away.
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03-05-23 03:11 PM #172
You’re starting to heat up. Keep it up
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03-08-23 08:02 AM #173
Unders were 20-6 yesterday. Geez
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03-08-23 10:43 AM #174
Yeah, possessions were way down from predicted yesterday overall. Feel fortunate that I went 2-1 with my overs.
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03-08-23 11:51 AM #175
Someone across the street posted that unders in the big dance are like 55-56% winners over the last twenty yrs. The last 4 yrs in a row were plus money for unders. I think last year from the sweet sixteen on unders were like 12-3
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