[barnstorm]

How about Nevada vs Fresno State at 130.5? Seems kind of low for Nevada's firepower.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Had that same thought last night, and the model supports it to some extent. Ended up passing because Nevada's defense is pretty good and Fresno is a mess offensively.

[barnstorm]

Had that same thought last night, and the model supports it to some extent. Ended up passing because Nevada's defense is pretty good and Fresno is a mess offensively.

Yes, Nevada does have a good defense to go with their good offense. Maybe Nevada TT over, if I'm bored on a light Friday night schedule.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Yes, Nevada does have a good defense to go with their good offense. Maybe Nevada TT over, if I'm bored on a light Friday night schedule.

Hope you played one or both of those overs. I only saw the first 10 minutes or so and it looked a little rough, but they got going over the last 30 minutes.

[barnstorm]

Hope you played one or both of those overs. I only saw the first 10 minutes or so and it looked a little rough, but they got going over the last 30 minutes.

No, Nevada looked a little sloppy and uninspired in the first half so I laid off. I did grab your Akron-Ohio game just before the tip, even though I had to take 143, so that worked out nice.

I feel bad for the Duke +6 backers today. They got hosed on that no-call at the end of the game and then lost by 7 in OT. That's a very bad beat. The guy clearly got fouled before the light came on. They called the foul. How did they change that? No way they could say the foul came after the light came on. Not even close, in slow motion.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Brutal loss in that Howard under. It was a 17 point game with under 3 minutes to play and they scored 26 points to go over by 4. 52 free throws taken in the game. Gross

[barnstorm]

Brutal loss in that Howard under. It was a 17 point game with under 3 minutes to play and they scored 26 points to go over by 4. 52 free throws taken in the game. Gross

Yeah, MES kept playing hard with under a minute and down 10. They pressed and fouled, but also made two 3s down the stretch that did us in.

[coolguy73739]

Hey @Helluvaguy, you are playing Kent state game over and Air force game over too. I believe you are purely going by your numbers but for some strange reasons, books trim these numbers that we cannot ignore. My model also predicting higher numbers for these games but I am playing UNDER for both these games. Lets see, I might be wrong. Good Luck to you..

[HeeluvaGuy]

The lines look pretty inline with other computer models out there like kenpom and massey. Regardless, I don't go purely by the numbers but also look at other factors before placing a bet. I don't see anything out of the ordinary for those particular lines. They also opened a tad higher and were bet down a little bit before I got them.

[barnstorm]

Hey @Helluvaguy, you are playing Kent state game over and Air force game over too. I believe you are purely going by your numbers but for some strange reasons, books trim these numbers that we cannot ignore. My model also predicting higher numbers for these games but I am playing UNDER for both these games. Lets see, I might be wrong. Good Luck to you..

Why are you playing Under if your model is predicting higher numbers than the posted O/U lines?

[HeeluvaGuy]

Why are you playing Under if your model is predicting higher numbers than the posted O/U lines?

I’m not trying to answer for coolguy, but he may be working under their assumption that odds makers know something we don’t know. Always a possibility, but when I do my secondary analyses I check to make sure the line makes sense. If I can’t explain it, I pass. Some people play the opposite. I’m just not wired that way.

[coolguy73739]

Why are you playing Under if your model is predicting higher numbers than the posted O/U lines?

I myself am struggling to answer this question for quite some time. I have burnt my fingers enough to know that the number given by my model may not always sync with books number. Now i always look at the COMFORT LEVEL of the posted line based on Average points allowed, Average Points scored and average of two. If the posted line falls in the COMFORT LEVEL ZONE, I would only play UNDER for those games even of my model suggesting opposite. Not sure if I make myself clear on this to you?

[cowbama]

Good luck with your picks today heeluvaguy

[HeeluvaGuy]

Good luck with your picks today heeluvaguy

I could use some luck after the last few days.

[Renegades]

No such luck. 2 layups and a missed dunk the last 3 poss in the kent game

[Renegades]

You were on the right side. Should have swept. The last 90 secs of that kent gm was bad. Even with 39 secs left and the ball they chose to dribble out for a shot clock violation. As if w mich really cares if they took a shot or not.

[HeeluvaGuy]

As irritating as that was, I can't ignore the few wins had by OT luck. Those things tend to balance out, but it's never fun when it happens.

[matt711]

It should have been 3-0

[barnstorm]

Damn, just needed Arlington to make one of their last 2 or 3 threes or drive it to the hoop instead, or foul Sam Houston one more time. Tough loss by 1 point. Ayo is also in a mini slump.

[barnstorm]

Oh man, Northridge just missed a FT and a literal layup at the end to keep that one Under by 1. The gambling gods got those two OT wins back.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Definitely some tough losses the last few days (starting with that crazy 26 points in 3 minutes in the Howard game). I have noticed over the past few days that my model is showing some signs of degradation, so I am going to take a lower volume approach for a bit to see how things shake out.

[Renegades]

Just to pour salt on the wound. I had 135.5 in UC gm. Espn+ had the game 73-63 while I was watching on tv. I thought I got a lucky win. Came back 30 mins later and see the score was changed to 73-62. Checked my acct and it was graded as a loss. No idea how or why the score was updated.

[HeeluvaGuy]

I saw them take the point off but didn't look into why since it didn't matter to my bet. I count 3 losses by a total of 4 points the last couple of days. Way more fun when those break your way than when they don't.

[Renegades]

There was no explanation to why the point was taken off either

[coolguy73739]

Hey @Heeluvaguy, why don't you venture into spread betting? Is it tougher as compared to Totals? thoughts??

[HeeluvaGuy]

I tend to bet spreads more once we get into post season play. I’m not sure that one bet type is easier or harder than another, but I do think the totals market is less scrutinized during the regular season.

The real answer is probably that I just don’t have time to do both during the regular season, but I also like the flexibility of totals betting. I might be fooling myself, but I think there is more margin for error in totals betting. For example, sometimes one team greatly exceeds expectations while the other team is below expectation. An over bet can still win that game, but if you’re on the team playing poorly you’re likely not gonna win. In poker terms, I generally think totals betting gives you more outs, which is one reason I gravitate to them.

[coolguy73739]

I tend to bet spreads more once we get into post season play. I’m not sure that one bet type is easier or harder than another, but I do think the totals market is less scrutinized during the regular season.

The real answer is probably that I just don’t have time to do both during the regular season, but I also like the flexibility of totals betting. I might be fooling myself, but I think there is more margin for error in totals betting. For example, sometimes one team greatly exceeds expectations while the other team is below expectation. An over bet can still win that game, but if you’re on the team playing poorly you’re likely not gonna win. In poker terms, I generally think totals betting gives you more outs, which is one reason I gravitate to them.

Thanks for your valuable input. Appreciate it.

[loveofsports]

What's your record this year man? Keep crushing it.

[HeeluvaGuy]

I'm 208-148-1 +45.8u over the whole season. Hit a bit of a slide recently and am just 30-28 -0.81u in February.

[Renegades]

Saturdays and unders seem like the outliers that are hurting your record. I havent been following all season but that’s my perception from the last 6 weeks or so.

[Renegades]

Good luck today! Hopefully, a little positive variance swings our way today.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Some friends were giving me a hard time about Saturdays so I pulled the numbers for each. Really just 2 bad days, but goes to show that it doesn't take much to put a dent in profits.

	W	L	Units
26-Nov	6	1	4.9
3-Dec	3	4	-1.4
10-Dec	5	4	0.6
17-Dec	4	4	-0.36
24-Dec
31-Dec	4	2	1.8
7-Jan	7	4	2.61
14-Jan	10	3	6.66
21-Jan	9	8	0.2
28-Jan	5	10	-6.03
4-Feb	4	9	-5.59
11-Feb	3	3	-0.3
	60	52	3.09	53.57%

As for unders, I'm 35-30 on the season with those but haven't had much luck as of late. Just 2-5 in February.

[cowbama]

Good luck today with your plays

[barnstorm]

29 points in the last 1:03 of the Toledo game! Just the perfect 6 point lead that caused BG to keep fouling. and Toledo made most of their FTs and yet BG kept making 2s and some 3s down at their end. Rinse and repeat. If the lead was only 3 or even 4, they probably would not have starting fouling.

[Renegades]

29 points in the last 1:03 of the Toledo game! Just the perfect 6 point lead that caused BG to keep fouling. and Toledo made most of their FTs and yet BG kept making 2s and some 3s down at their end. Rinse and repeat. If the lead was only 3 or even 4, they probably would not have starting fouling.

giveth and taketh. Nevada with 13 pts in the second half. Live line was 161.5 at one point now its 142