Spartans, Bulldogs unlikely Final Four battle
Just who is Cinderella in this matchup? A big chunk of the nation is just now getting to know the Butler Bulldogs from the Horizon League. But Brad Stevens' squad entered the Tournament ranked higher than its opponent this Saturday in the Final Four, and oddsmakers like the Bulldogs as well. Meanwhile Tom Izzo and the Spartans have defied the odds so far without their star player. Can Michigan State bounce Butler?
They’re 51st in strength of schedule, 28th in RPI, 23rd in the Pomeroy rankings, 14th in the Sagarin rankings, and were 13th in the postseason edition of the AP poll.
They’re a surprise team in Saturday night’s national semifinals at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Very few analysts picked them to get this far, even if they were among the prominent teams discussed back in the preseason.
If you think I’m talking about Butler, you need to check the numbers.
The above school is resilient Michigan State, which by all accounts is the real underdog heading into its matchup with Butler on Saturday night (6:07 p.m. ET, CBS).
The mainstream media had already anointed the Bulldogs as the so-called Cinderella well before they made it to the Final Four. Now that Butler has actually booked its ticket to downtown Indy – to a venue seven minutes from campus – the Hoosier talk is only getting started.
Don’t get me wrong, the Bulldog story is a great one. After all, this is the Horizon League’s first appearance in the national semifinals. Butler is a Cinderella in the public sense of the term.
Butler is no George Mason, however. The Patriots fought their way to the Final Four as a No. 10 seed four years ago, but the Bulldogs were the fifth seed in the West Region.
Bettors should also take into account Butler was ranked ahead of Michigan State in the postseason edition of the national polls. The coaches’ poll had the Bulldogs as the No. 8 team on the country; the AP had them seeded 11th.
Outside of SOS, where the Horizon League champions are ranked 77th because of their mid-major league, Butler is ahead of Michigan State in RPI (11th) and in the Pomeroy (12th) and Sagarin (8th) rankings.
The fact is the Bulldogs are at least as good as the Spartans, if not better, and oddsmakers have responded accordingly.
Sportsbooks opened Butler as one-point chalk against Michigan State, but it was bet up a half-point at most outlets as of Monday morning. The total for the national semifinal is available at 126 after the initial 127-point number released on Sunday night.
I’d expect the Spartans to be bigger underdogs by the time the teams tip off in Indianapolis. The Bulldogs are a national story, and Michigan State is dealing without its best player and starting point guard in Kalin Lucas (ruptured Achilles’ heel).
The Spartans survived without Lucas in their 70-69 win over No. 6 Tennessee in the Midwest Region final on Sunday afternoon in St. Louis, but it’ll be difficult for them to do it again.
Raymar Morgan sunk a free throw with 1.8 seconds left to lift Michigan State past the Volunteers, who couldn’t cover as two-point chalk. Morgan finished with 13 points and 10 rebounds, while Durrell Summers led the Spartans with 21 points.
The more points Michigan State gets from Butler, the easier it makes it for bettors. The Spartans are 7-4 ATS (9-2 SU) since a three-game losing streak in early February, and you’d have to like them to cover in a close game.
Michigan State’s 59-52 win as 1 ½-point favorites over No. 9 Northern Iowa on Friday was its biggest win of the Big Dance; 3-1 ATS record during their Tournament run, the Spartans have certainly proven they’re capable in pressure situations – with or without Lucas.
The Bulldogs roll into Indy after knocking off the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in the West Region. Butler (+3½) held off Kansas State 63-56 in the Regional final on Saturday, just two days after it stunned Syracuse 63-59 as 6-point pups.
Both games played themselves out in similar fashion, with the Bulldogs jumping out to an early lead before tightening up down the stretch. Butler actually lost the lead in the dying minutes against the Orange before taking control against the Big East’s best team for the bulk of conference play.
The Bulldogs have covered in three of their four games in March Madness. Butler’s only defeat against the spread came in its 54-52 win over No. 13 Murray State (+4) in the second round.
Just who is Cinderella in this matchup? A big chunk of the nation is just now getting to know the Butler Bulldogs from the Horizon League. But Brad Stevens' squad entered the Tournament ranked higher than its opponent this Saturday in the Final Four, and oddsmakers like the Bulldogs as well. Meanwhile Tom Izzo and the Spartans have defied the odds so far without their star player. Can Michigan State bounce Butler?
They’re 51st in strength of schedule, 28th in RPI, 23rd in the Pomeroy rankings, 14th in the Sagarin rankings, and were 13th in the postseason edition of the AP poll.
They’re a surprise team in Saturday night’s national semifinals at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Very few analysts picked them to get this far, even if they were among the prominent teams discussed back in the preseason.
If you think I’m talking about Butler, you need to check the numbers.
The above school is resilient Michigan State, which by all accounts is the real underdog heading into its matchup with Butler on Saturday night (6:07 p.m. ET, CBS).
The mainstream media had already anointed the Bulldogs as the so-called Cinderella well before they made it to the Final Four. Now that Butler has actually booked its ticket to downtown Indy – to a venue seven minutes from campus – the Hoosier talk is only getting started.
Don’t get me wrong, the Bulldog story is a great one. After all, this is the Horizon League’s first appearance in the national semifinals. Butler is a Cinderella in the public sense of the term.
Butler is no George Mason, however. The Patriots fought their way to the Final Four as a No. 10 seed four years ago, but the Bulldogs were the fifth seed in the West Region.
Bettors should also take into account Butler was ranked ahead of Michigan State in the postseason edition of the national polls. The coaches’ poll had the Bulldogs as the No. 8 team on the country; the AP had them seeded 11th.
Outside of SOS, where the Horizon League champions are ranked 77th because of their mid-major league, Butler is ahead of Michigan State in RPI (11th) and in the Pomeroy (12th) and Sagarin (8th) rankings.
The fact is the Bulldogs are at least as good as the Spartans, if not better, and oddsmakers have responded accordingly.
Sportsbooks opened Butler as one-point chalk against Michigan State, but it was bet up a half-point at most outlets as of Monday morning. The total for the national semifinal is available at 126 after the initial 127-point number released on Sunday night.
I’d expect the Spartans to be bigger underdogs by the time the teams tip off in Indianapolis. The Bulldogs are a national story, and Michigan State is dealing without its best player and starting point guard in Kalin Lucas (ruptured Achilles’ heel).
The Spartans survived without Lucas in their 70-69 win over No. 6 Tennessee in the Midwest Region final on Sunday afternoon in St. Louis, but it’ll be difficult for them to do it again.
Raymar Morgan sunk a free throw with 1.8 seconds left to lift Michigan State past the Volunteers, who couldn’t cover as two-point chalk. Morgan finished with 13 points and 10 rebounds, while Durrell Summers led the Spartans with 21 points.
The more points Michigan State gets from Butler, the easier it makes it for bettors. The Spartans are 7-4 ATS (9-2 SU) since a three-game losing streak in early February, and you’d have to like them to cover in a close game.
Michigan State’s 59-52 win as 1 ½-point favorites over No. 9 Northern Iowa on Friday was its biggest win of the Big Dance; 3-1 ATS record during their Tournament run, the Spartans have certainly proven they’re capable in pressure situations – with or without Lucas.
The Bulldogs roll into Indy after knocking off the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in the West Region. Butler (+3½) held off Kansas State 63-56 in the Regional final on Saturday, just two days after it stunned Syracuse 63-59 as 6-point pups.
Both games played themselves out in similar fashion, with the Bulldogs jumping out to an early lead before tightening up down the stretch. Butler actually lost the lead in the dying minutes against the Orange before taking control against the Big East’s best team for the bulk of conference play.
The Bulldogs have covered in three of their four games in March Madness. Butler’s only defeat against the spread came in its 54-52 win over No. 13 Murray State (+4) in the second round.
