KenPom has it at 161 -- I've never seen such a wide gap between a Vegas total and a KenPom number before. Usually, if you get a 2-3 point discrepancy, you're lucky.
-
-
what's kenpom?Comment -
he has the right call im already on board but its his play and im not posting it to steal his thunderComment -
Very useful site IMHO. I could swear Vegas gets its totals from him -- I'd say 80% of the games are within 1-2 points of his posted predictions total-wise.Comment -
this might be stupid but i cant really figure out how to use the site? where do you find his o/u at?Comment -
villanova can't score that many pts to cover thisComment -
He uses sum of squares to come up with a predicted score. Look at a team's schedule and add the predicted score for the o/u.
KenPom is an indispensable site. The match-ups and game plan sections are loaded with great info and numbers. His totals are usually very close to what the lines are. Once in a while his numbers will be way off and I usually go nuts on those (Providence vs Seton Hall he had going over by a crap load and it was a winner with 9 minutes left). It isn't full-proof though because the math treats all games equally and doesn't account for injuries obviously. So you will sometimes see big discrepencies, such as Thursday's ODU/ND game, where Ken had the total at 129 but the line was 121 and it was a big under play, because ND had totally changed their offensive philosophy when Harengody went down.
Anyway, great stuff there!Comment -
The sharps are on this play, I've already locked it in & will play more if it goes down, the public tend to bet very high totals down.
I've just got a bad taste in my mouth about the RM game not going over with an extra 5 fukin minutes.
Pomeroy has been very accurate in his #1 seed projections winning also. He also had VT in the shit tourney winning by 20 the other night, which they did exactly. I hammered the fuk out of -13Comment -
The play is whack.
1) The total is pretty much dead on if you look at the averages.
2) The public always pounds the over, just like you guys are, so don't even talk about what the "sharps" are doing.
3) Paco made this play while obviously shit faced after a successful day, and is thus due for a loss.
= Excellent fade material.
Comment -
really, leave it alone, Sunde is right.
Kentucky & Kansas over, that's it!Comment -
My thinking is that St. Mary's will attempt to slow the game down with a very deliberate half court offense and eating up the shot clock.
The Gaels will not want to run with the Wildcats. I hate taking Unders though, so I will stay away from this game.Comment -
I hate overs, but this tourney has been full of 'em.Comment -
i think under is the play hereComment
