Old Dominion could test Irish in opening round
Controversy surroundsteams that got into the tournament, and a few that didn't. But the real debate now is which teams are seeded too high or too low. A couple of opening round games might be easy pickin's for an upset. Luke Harangody and Notre Dame will be a popular pick in New Orleans over Old Dominion, though the Monarchs are ranked higher in RPI, while Vandy could be in for a tussle against the Murray St.
We knew it all along. Your four No. 1 seeds at the NCAA men’s basketball Tournament are the Kansas Jayhawks, the Kentucky Wildcats, the Duke Blue Devils and the Syracuse Orange. Even with the occasional loss here and there, those four teams are deserving of those four spots. But what about the rest of the 65-team field?
You can always count on the Selection Committee to make some interesting decisions. Representatives of the six major conferences invariably get preferential treatment on Selection Sunday. And while the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) is used as a guide, you’re not likely to find the Committee members poring over Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency charts the same way handicappers and bookmakers do.
That’s why the first two rounds of March Madness are such a wonderful time for bettors and office poolies. If you’re new at this, remember to pay close attention to these first-round matchups:
No. 4 vs. No. 13: 79-21 SU
No. 5 vs. No. 12: 66-34 SU
No. 6 vs. No. 11: 69-31 SU
The SU records show how well the higher seed has fared in the past 100 games since the Tournament adopted its 64/65-team format in 1985. If you’re filling out a bracket, this is where you’ll get an advantage over the public.
The same goes for handicappers looking for value against the March Madness betting odds. Here are two matchups from this year’s bracket that I believe deserve closer attention.
No. 4 Vanderbilt vs. No. 13 Murray State (+4½)
WEST: San Jose, CA
The higher seed in these matchups is usually a member of a major conference that finished somewhere down the ladder – in this case, the Commodores (24-8 SU, 16-14 ATS) did rather well to finish second in the overall SEC regular-season standings, but they bowed out in the semifinals of the conference tournament. The lower seed is typically the champion of a lower conference – in this case, the Racers (30-4 SU, 14-13-2 ATS) plowed through the Ohio Valley Conference with hardly a scratch.
Of course, there’s a difference in quality between the SEC and the OVC. Murray State played one of the softest schedules of any team in Division I; aside from a 75-70 loss to California (-13.5) to open the season, the Racers avoided having to face any serious competition this year. To get a better picture of how good Murray State was, Pomeroy and other efficiency-minded analysts look at point differential, and the Racers blew out their opponents by an average of 17 points. The Commodores won by an average margin of 8.2 points.
After crunching all the numbers, Pomeroy has Vanderbilt ranked No. 36 in the nation with Murray State at No. 57. That suggests the ‘Dores are highly overrated as a No. 4 seed in the Tournament. The Racers are also dominant inside, shooting 55.3 percent from inside the arc and allowing opponents to shoot just 41.0 percent from down low. That puts them No. 4 in all of Division I in both categories. Vanderbilt is generally weak on defense (No. 64 overall) for such a high seed. I’ll definitely be watching this game on Thursday (2:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 11 Old Dominion (+2½)
SOUTH: New Orleans
I’ve been giving Notre Dame the gears for a while now, but the Fighting Irish went 6-2 SU and 8-0 ATS in their last eight games to get into the top half of the Tournament bracket. If those are the “real” Irish, they’ll be tough for anyone to beat. But I’m looking at the full season of numbers, and Pomeroy has Notre Dame (23-11 SU, 17-10-1 ATS) ranked No. 38, five spots below the Colonial champions from Old Dominion (26-8 SU, 13-17 ATS).
The Monarchs have already dragged the pointspread down from +4 at the open. Perhaps bettors recall other CAA Tournament stalwarts like the George Mason Patriots, who made the Final Four in 2006, and the VCU Rams, who upset Duke in 2007 and went 3-0 ATS in their last three March Madness contests. Old Dominion is No. 16 in overall defensive efficiency and the top offensive rebounding team in Division I. Notre Dame is offensively gifted at No. 4 in efficiency, but ranks only No. 140 on defense. The Monarchs are going to get first, second and third chances to score on Thursday (12:25 p.m. ET, CBS).
Controversy surroundsteams that got into the tournament, and a few that didn't. But the real debate now is which teams are seeded too high or too low. A couple of opening round games might be easy pickin's for an upset. Luke Harangody and Notre Dame will be a popular pick in New Orleans over Old Dominion, though the Monarchs are ranked higher in RPI, while Vandy could be in for a tussle against the Murray St.
We knew it all along. Your four No. 1 seeds at the NCAA men’s basketball Tournament are the Kansas Jayhawks, the Kentucky Wildcats, the Duke Blue Devils and the Syracuse Orange. Even with the occasional loss here and there, those four teams are deserving of those four spots. But what about the rest of the 65-team field?
You can always count on the Selection Committee to make some interesting decisions. Representatives of the six major conferences invariably get preferential treatment on Selection Sunday. And while the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) is used as a guide, you’re not likely to find the Committee members poring over Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency charts the same way handicappers and bookmakers do.
That’s why the first two rounds of March Madness are such a wonderful time for bettors and office poolies. If you’re new at this, remember to pay close attention to these first-round matchups:
No. 4 vs. No. 13: 79-21 SU
No. 5 vs. No. 12: 66-34 SU
No. 6 vs. No. 11: 69-31 SU
The SU records show how well the higher seed has fared in the past 100 games since the Tournament adopted its 64/65-team format in 1985. If you’re filling out a bracket, this is where you’ll get an advantage over the public.
The same goes for handicappers looking for value against the March Madness betting odds. Here are two matchups from this year’s bracket that I believe deserve closer attention.
No. 4 Vanderbilt vs. No. 13 Murray State (+4½)
WEST: San Jose, CA
The higher seed in these matchups is usually a member of a major conference that finished somewhere down the ladder – in this case, the Commodores (24-8 SU, 16-14 ATS) did rather well to finish second in the overall SEC regular-season standings, but they bowed out in the semifinals of the conference tournament. The lower seed is typically the champion of a lower conference – in this case, the Racers (30-4 SU, 14-13-2 ATS) plowed through the Ohio Valley Conference with hardly a scratch.
Of course, there’s a difference in quality between the SEC and the OVC. Murray State played one of the softest schedules of any team in Division I; aside from a 75-70 loss to California (-13.5) to open the season, the Racers avoided having to face any serious competition this year. To get a better picture of how good Murray State was, Pomeroy and other efficiency-minded analysts look at point differential, and the Racers blew out their opponents by an average of 17 points. The Commodores won by an average margin of 8.2 points.
After crunching all the numbers, Pomeroy has Vanderbilt ranked No. 36 in the nation with Murray State at No. 57. That suggests the ‘Dores are highly overrated as a No. 4 seed in the Tournament. The Racers are also dominant inside, shooting 55.3 percent from inside the arc and allowing opponents to shoot just 41.0 percent from down low. That puts them No. 4 in all of Division I in both categories. Vanderbilt is generally weak on defense (No. 64 overall) for such a high seed. I’ll definitely be watching this game on Thursday (2:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 11 Old Dominion (+2½)
SOUTH: New Orleans
I’ve been giving Notre Dame the gears for a while now, but the Fighting Irish went 6-2 SU and 8-0 ATS in their last eight games to get into the top half of the Tournament bracket. If those are the “real” Irish, they’ll be tough for anyone to beat. But I’m looking at the full season of numbers, and Pomeroy has Notre Dame (23-11 SU, 17-10-1 ATS) ranked No. 38, five spots below the Colonial champions from Old Dominion (26-8 SU, 13-17 ATS).
The Monarchs have already dragged the pointspread down from +4 at the open. Perhaps bettors recall other CAA Tournament stalwarts like the George Mason Patriots, who made the Final Four in 2006, and the VCU Rams, who upset Duke in 2007 and went 3-0 ATS in their last three March Madness contests. Old Dominion is No. 16 in overall defensive efficiency and the top offensive rebounding team in Division I. Notre Dame is offensively gifted at No. 4 in efficiency, but ranks only No. 140 on defense. The Monarchs are going to get first, second and third chances to score on Thursday (12:25 p.m. ET, CBS).
