Siena, Rhode Island looking towards March
Think of it as inviting guests to a wedding. Certainly parents, siblings and grandparents are due a seat at one of the reception tables. But cousin Ernie and his third wife Edna? They're 'bubble guests.' The only way they're coming is by pushing their way in. The Siena Saints and Rhode Island Rams are cousin Ernie and Edna in terms of this year's Big Dance, and a March appearance for either is currently up in the air.
In a few short weeks, we’ll all be up to our armpits in March Madness brackets. The NCAA men’s basketball Tournament puts college football’s convoluted BCS system to shame. But it’s not perfect.
While some teams will earn automatic bids into the Tournament by winning their conferences, others must cast their fates in front of the Selection Committee in hopes of an at-large berth. Here are two notable programs likely to take divergent paths to the Big Dance.
MAAC: Siena
The Siena Saints can make life easy for themselves by winning the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference for the third year in a row. They’re in the driver’s seat right now at 22-5 SU (14-10-1 ATS) with a 15-1 record in MAAC play, four games ahead of second-place Iona. That record goes out the window once the MAAC tournament gets underway at the Times Union Center in Albany, N.Y. But Siena managed to ride the No. 1 seed to the MAAC title in both 2008 and 2009.
This is the only team in the conference rated in the Top 100 on Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency rankings, checking in at No. 72. The Gaels (19-8 SU, 11-10 ATS) are next at No. 113; their No. 100 RPI (Ratings Percentage Index) is almost certainly not good enough to earn an at-large bid.
Siena’s very impressive No. 36 RPI could be enough to sneak the Saints in should something go horribly awry at the MAAC Tournament. However, that No. 120 SOS rating (Strength of Schedule) could steer the Selection Committee in a different direction.
Fans in Albany were feeling a little less secure about their Tournament spot on Friday after Siena was dumped 87-74 by Niagara (+3½ at home) for their first conference loss of the season. But the Saints got right back on track Sunday with a 74-57 trouncing of Canisius (+8 at home). They’ve played well enough this year to get some premium BracketBusters coverage on Saturday when they visit the Butler Bulldogs; ESPN2 has the TV broadcast starting at 11:00 a.m. Eastern. This is easily Siena’s toughest matchup of the regular season and an excellent opportunity for handicappers to brush up on the Saints.
A-10: Rhode Island
Rhode Island (19-5 SU, 9-11-1 ATS) is in sixth place in the Atlantic 10 Conference, but the A-10 is so powerful this year that earning six Tournament bids is well within reason. The Rams are also one of six teams in the conference with a Pomeroy rating in the Top 100 at No. 75; their RPI is even better at No. 22, with a Tournament-worthy SOS at No. 40. The concern for the Rams is those back-to-back losses last week, at home against Richmond (+5½) and on the road at Temple (-4). That’s the first time Rhode Island has lost two in a row all season.
We’ve seen the Rams fold up their tents before. Just two years ago, they were 19-3 SU (11-7-2 ATS) and playing excellent basketball, then URI went 2-7 SU and ATS before losing in the first round of the A-10 tourney. That put the Rams into the NIT, where they narrowly lost to Creighton (-7) in the opening round.
A repeat collapse is possible: Next up on Wednesday is Saint Louis, upset winners of three in a row against La Salle (-4), St. Joseph’s (-1½) and enigmatic Dayton (-5). The Billikens are shredding the betting odds at home with a 6-2-1 ATS record.
Like the Saints, the Rams could get into the Tournament by winning the A-10 as well as through an at-large bid. It’ll be a lot harder to get in that way; there will be stiff competition from the other five teams in Pomeroy’s Top 100, as well as Saint Louis (No. 104) and George Washington (No. 108), although GW is falling off the wagon with just two wins in nine games.
The A-10 tourney Tips off on March 12 in Atlantic City with 12 of the 14 teams qualifying for a shot at the title. Temple won last year as the No. 4 seed. Again, this tourney will be very competitive, so URI had better focus on finishing the regular season strong.
Think of it as inviting guests to a wedding. Certainly parents, siblings and grandparents are due a seat at one of the reception tables. But cousin Ernie and his third wife Edna? They're 'bubble guests.' The only way they're coming is by pushing their way in. The Siena Saints and Rhode Island Rams are cousin Ernie and Edna in terms of this year's Big Dance, and a March appearance for either is currently up in the air.
In a few short weeks, we’ll all be up to our armpits in March Madness brackets. The NCAA men’s basketball Tournament puts college football’s convoluted BCS system to shame. But it’s not perfect.
While some teams will earn automatic bids into the Tournament by winning their conferences, others must cast their fates in front of the Selection Committee in hopes of an at-large berth. Here are two notable programs likely to take divergent paths to the Big Dance.
MAAC: Siena
The Siena Saints can make life easy for themselves by winning the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference for the third year in a row. They’re in the driver’s seat right now at 22-5 SU (14-10-1 ATS) with a 15-1 record in MAAC play, four games ahead of second-place Iona. That record goes out the window once the MAAC tournament gets underway at the Times Union Center in Albany, N.Y. But Siena managed to ride the No. 1 seed to the MAAC title in both 2008 and 2009.
This is the only team in the conference rated in the Top 100 on Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency rankings, checking in at No. 72. The Gaels (19-8 SU, 11-10 ATS) are next at No. 113; their No. 100 RPI (Ratings Percentage Index) is almost certainly not good enough to earn an at-large bid.
Siena’s very impressive No. 36 RPI could be enough to sneak the Saints in should something go horribly awry at the MAAC Tournament. However, that No. 120 SOS rating (Strength of Schedule) could steer the Selection Committee in a different direction.
Fans in Albany were feeling a little less secure about their Tournament spot on Friday after Siena was dumped 87-74 by Niagara (+3½ at home) for their first conference loss of the season. But the Saints got right back on track Sunday with a 74-57 trouncing of Canisius (+8 at home). They’ve played well enough this year to get some premium BracketBusters coverage on Saturday when they visit the Butler Bulldogs; ESPN2 has the TV broadcast starting at 11:00 a.m. Eastern. This is easily Siena’s toughest matchup of the regular season and an excellent opportunity for handicappers to brush up on the Saints.
A-10: Rhode Island
Rhode Island (19-5 SU, 9-11-1 ATS) is in sixth place in the Atlantic 10 Conference, but the A-10 is so powerful this year that earning six Tournament bids is well within reason. The Rams are also one of six teams in the conference with a Pomeroy rating in the Top 100 at No. 75; their RPI is even better at No. 22, with a Tournament-worthy SOS at No. 40. The concern for the Rams is those back-to-back losses last week, at home against Richmond (+5½) and on the road at Temple (-4). That’s the first time Rhode Island has lost two in a row all season.
We’ve seen the Rams fold up their tents before. Just two years ago, they were 19-3 SU (11-7-2 ATS) and playing excellent basketball, then URI went 2-7 SU and ATS before losing in the first round of the A-10 tourney. That put the Rams into the NIT, where they narrowly lost to Creighton (-7) in the opening round.
A repeat collapse is possible: Next up on Wednesday is Saint Louis, upset winners of three in a row against La Salle (-4), St. Joseph’s (-1½) and enigmatic Dayton (-5). The Billikens are shredding the betting odds at home with a 6-2-1 ATS record.
Like the Saints, the Rams could get into the Tournament by winning the A-10 as well as through an at-large bid. It’ll be a lot harder to get in that way; there will be stiff competition from the other five teams in Pomeroy’s Top 100, as well as Saint Louis (No. 104) and George Washington (No. 108), although GW is falling off the wagon with just two wins in nine games.
The A-10 tourney Tips off on March 12 in Atlantic City with 12 of the 14 teams qualifying for a shot at the title. Temple won last year as the No. 4 seed. Again, this tourney will be very competitive, so URI had better focus on finishing the regular season strong.
