The system to end all systems... ROUND TWO

[Tree Rollins]

NCAAB Marquette 82 Over 158 500 WON +500
Providence 79
NCAAB West Virginia 79 Under 129.5 500 LOSS -550
St. John's 60
NCAAB Temple 54 Richmond -1 500 WON +500
Richmond 71 Under 113.5 500 LOSS -550
NCAAB Wake Forest 64 Virginia -3 500 LOSS -550
Virginia 61 Under 134 500 WON +500
NCAAB Akron 75 Under 120 500 LOSS -550
Ball St. 70
NCAAB North Texas 68 Over 150.5 500 LOSS -550
Florida International 66
NCAAB Mississippi St. 62 Under 135 500 WON +500
Florida 69
NCAAB Oklahoma St. 74 Over 150 500 WON +500
Texas Tech 81
NCAAB Auburn 79 Over 152.5 500 WON +500
Arkansas 82
NCAAB Bowling Green 64 Under 126.5 500 LOSS -550
Western Michigan 65
NCAAB Massachusetts 85 Over 151 500 WON +500
Rhode Island 93
NCAAB Minnesota 66 Under 133 500 WON +500
Penn St. 64
NCAAB Kansas St. 79 Over 148 500 WON +500
Iowa St. 75
NCAAB Duke 66 Under 141.5 500 WON +500
Boston College 63
NCAAB Southern Methodist 66 Tulane 0 500 LOSS -550
Tulane 48 Under 125.5 500 WON +500
NCAAB UAB 76 Under 126 500 LOSS -550
Rice 65
NCAAB Detroit 70 Valparaiso -2 500 WON +500
Valparaiso 74
NCAAB Appalachian St. 89 Over 149.5 500 WON +500
Western Carolina 77
NCAAB Middle Tennessee St. 80 Middle Tennessee St. -1 500 WON +500
South Alabama 68 Under 126.5 500 LOSS -550

Did you bet 500 dollars each on all 72 of your plays? that would be 36K.

[warriorfan707]

No Im using covers to track and display all these

[Collecting]

lol, it would be just under 40k with juice i belive.

He needs to clear +4 games to break a little over even.

[DuncHen22]

My bad, I had Middle Tennessee as a loss for some reason.

23-18, Once EMU wins you'll be at 24-18. 57%, +4.2 units

By the way, to break even, you're going to have to hit 52.4%, which is 38-34.

[DuncHen22]

One other point, and again I'm not doing this to tear you down I'm doing this to help you become a better player. Please take it as advice and encouragement rather than an insult.

My point is "return on risk." As of now you are up 4.2 units after 42 games (I'm just assuming you play 1.1 units to win 1 unit because that is the easiest. You can play 10, 50, 100, etc units, but it's all the same mathematically).

With the juice, you have risked 46.2 units. That means your return on your risk is 9.1%

My record thus far today is 9-4. 2 of those plays were 2nd half chasers that cashed so I'm up 6.6 units and I've risked 16.5. That's a 40% return on the amount I've risked.

My point is even if you were up 6.6 units right now, your return on risk would be 14.3%. It's better to find a system that has fewer plays because you're more likely to get a higher return on the amount you risk, thus it's much less risky.

I hope that makes sense. BOL on the rest of your plays!

[DuncHen22]

31-26 (54%)

[CrimsonQueen]

I should add (and please listen to this, if nothing else at all):

Lines are set up to give each side roughly a 50% chance at winning. The way the house wins is through the juice. If you bet on random teams (assuming the lines are right) you will end up hitting 50%, but you'll have lost money due to the juice.

The way we (the bettors) win is by finding the lines that are incorrect, that is, not 50%, and exploit them. It's impossible for even the best sports books to get every line right so it's our job to find the ones that are wrong. Sometimes they rush their analysis, sometimes a player gets injured and we can react faster than they can change the line. Sometimes we just know a team better than they do.

I bring this up because there is no way the books got 72 lines wrong, thus most of your "system picks" have a 50% chance of winning, thus your "system" will hit about 50% of them, give or take.

This is why we look for systems that only call a few games a day at most. If that is all our system is calling, we have more reason to believe our system is finding the incorrect lines. We then back that up with evidence by following the picks and see they are hitting 60-70% of the time.

60-70% is very good because we can assume the books are trying to get each line to 50%. When they are off, they are rarely off by too much (20% at most, usually). If you're looking for a system to hit 90%, find a system that calls about 10 games a season, because that's probably how often they're off by that much.

That is what we are trying to say. You say you will not rest until it's perfected so PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE listen to this and take notice!!! You are calling too many games.

Very well put.
As of the last update I saw by Collecting (at 10:04 ET), which was an hour ago, this system was 32-29. I know you don't want to hear this again, but "you are calling too many games"

Hope the last 20 games on the list go better for you!

[DuncHen22]

36-34 with just the UTEP game left. At best you'll finish 38-34 (53%; +0.6 Units), at worst you'll finish 36-36 (50%; -3.6 units).

[warriorfan707]

38-34 Today

[warriorfan707]

2/7/2010 NCAAB System Plays

Ohio State under 128.5
St Peters under 120.5
Manhattan -2.5
Manhattan under 127.5
Maryland under 157
Iona under 122.5

[DuncHen22]

38-34 Today

Really don't know why you're scratching your head... I already explained why you were around 50%. That's not a head-scratcher.

[THE PROFIT]

I could take the board & pick every game & go 50% knowing nothing about the teams on alot of them. But I could take 10 teams & study a little & go 80%. A guy challenged me today in a PM so I told him to set up the challenge & he wanted to do it for 50 points 30 plays. I told him to go ahead & start it today since we had a huge evening card.
There were 3 maybe 4 plays I liked this afternoon that I was already playing, so I played those 4 & randomly picked 4 more that I just liked, hadn't researched them, just thought the line looked a little soft, and I'm a football handicapper, hoops isn't my game. Went 7-1.

[warriorfan707]

You could also go 1-9

[vyomguy]

38-34 Today

[frank21]

At least I get to keep my points!

[DuncHen22]

You could also go 1-9

Yes, and you could get 10 tails in a row flipping a coin, even though the odds are 50%

[warriorfan707]

I'm not gonna sit here and get into a debate about probability because It went 38-34 for +0.6 Units.

You guys go flip your coins, I'll go with the system.

After a while you will graduate from coins to burgers

[Jonah]

Or you can go 15 - 8 in a contest(our wager chief) and still lose money for the day...Even though you actually took all those plays, but did it in some cockeyed combo cause betmania does not release lines til the morning and you had to leave for the day, which caused you to make frantic phone bets and add three heartbreakers.

Had to get that off my chest.
My bball eyes were locked in, My gambling savy was not.

[DuncHen22]

Your system IS a coin flip, that's my point! You were up 0.6 units after 72 games! That's a 0.8% return on the risk!

Let me put it another way: You just risked $7920 and won $60.

My system had a less-than-ideal day yesterday and ended up 11-9, +1.1 units.

In other words: I risked $2000 to win $110.

Not great but I risked almost $6000 less than you and still came out with more winnings. Why? Because my system is not random.

Essentially: Your "system" = a random number generator

I'm sorry I'm sounding like a dick but you are being so thickheaded and arrogant in the face of simple math and logic. You are unwilling to change something that just plain doesn't work. I've been there but when I notice random games are being picked I fix the problem.

[Marginalis]

This has just gotten obserd. I didn't count but that has to be 30 plays

this

[warriorfan707]

Your system IS a coin flip, that's my point! You were up 0.6 units after 72 games! That's a 0.8% return on the risk!

Let me put it another way: You just risked $7920 and won $60.

My system had a less-than-ideal day yesterday and ended up 11-9, +1.1 units.

In other words: I risked $2000 to win $110.

Not great but I risked almost $6000 less than you and still came out with more winnings. Why? Because my system is not random.

Essentially: Your "system" = a random number generator

I'm sorry I'm sounding like a dick but you are being so thickheaded and arrogant in the face of simple math and logic. You are unwilling to change something that just plain doesn't work. I've been there but when I notice random games are being picked I fix the problem.

Go fuk yourself

[Lnn7]

Your system IS a coin flip, that's my point! You were up 0.6 units after 72 games! That's a 0.8% return on the risk!

Let me put it another way: You just risked $7920 and won $60.

My system had a less-than-ideal day yesterday and ended up 11-9, +1.1 units.

In other words: I risked $2000 to win $110.

Not great but I risked almost $6000 less than you and still came out with more winnings. Why? Because my system is not random.

Essentially: Your "system" = a random number generator

I'm sorry I'm sounding like a dick but you are being so thickheaded and arrogant in the face of simple math and logic. You are unwilling to change something that just plain doesn't work. I've been there but when I notice random games are being picked I fix the problem.

Hey if you're so great make your own thread and post your picks. Don't be a dumbass dude, let other ppl do their own thing. Some system will win some will lose, so what, that's what we all try.

[warriorfan707]

Ive tried to be patient with the trolls and morons in here, now Im done. Get the fuk off my thread, this idiot is sitting here sucking his own dick because went 11-9

You laughable schmuk, go away

[DuncHen22]

Go fuk yourself

That's quite the way to treat someone who's trying to help you. I can only assume you didn't actually read anything I wrote.

If you can show me with reasoning or math why what I am saying is wrong, then I'll shut up. I'm only trying to help you realize this system needs to be changed for the sake of yourself and all (including me) who want to follow your system.

May I quote you from an earlier post?

"Listen all I want is for all of us to make money, and Im a man of my word. Like I said I will not fully rest until this thing has been perfected and we are all balling. Im a man on a mission"

We aren't going to make money off this system. It's hitting about 50%, meaning it's essentially calling random games.
So please don't rest and continue your mission of perfection! Right now you're just being stubborn, and I know you are even less willing to change it now due to your bizarre hatred of me because you want to prove me wrong. It's not going to happen with this system. I'm sorry.

You seem to think I'm attacking you personally. The reality is this:

I. AM. TRYING. TO. HELP. YOU.

[warriorfan707]

I never asked anyone for help. I don't need any help. Go away and stop bashing my system. Its near 60% since I changed it around. Stop this nonsense before you piss me off even more

[DuncHen22]

Hey if you're so great make your own thread and post your picks. Don't be a dumbass dude, let other ppl do their own thing. Some system will win some will lose, so what, that's what we all try.

A few things wrong with this, and again with the personal attacks. Jesus, ever heard of civility?

1. I'm not making my own thread because my system is still new and I'm just following it. For what it's worth (probably not much on this thread but whatever) My system is 93-50 since January 15th. My 11-9 day yesterday was one of my off days. That's not enough data for me though. I probably won't use this system until sometime next season.

2. I did start posting my plays on Twitter just for fun.

3. I have started a thread with system picks before and it failed so I ended that system and built a new one (my current one).

4. I'm not here (on this thread) to compare myself to Warrior or anyone else. I'm here to help. I'm not saying I'm better or even that I have a good system, that isn't my point. My point is this system may have great algorithms behind it but it is being too general. Warrior needs to focus in and try to cut off the fringe games that are bringing his percentage down.

5. AND MOST IMPORTANTLY: I know some systems will win and some will lose, but when they aren't winning you must change them. I'm trying to help this guy by showing him why his isn't working. I mean, if he wants to post a flawed system and you guys want to follow that system I'll shut up and go away. I am just under the assumption you wanted a winning system.

Please, stop with the attacks and see me as someone who wants to see you succeed. I'm not rooting against you. I'm just being realistic with your current system.

[DuncHen22]

I never asked anyone for help. I don't need any help. Go away and stop bashing my system. Its near 60% since I changed it around. Stop this nonsense before you piss me off even more

Please tell me how it is nonsense, and then I'll stop. Maybe you can share the math behind it? How the system is choosing games? I'm just trying to help.

And again, please just try to be more respectful of people trying to help, even if it is unsolicited advice. It makes everyone feel better.

Here is one thing you could have said that would have ended this whole discussion a long time ago:

"I understand your concern and I am looking into my system to find out how to make it better but I'd appreciate it if you didn't try to give me advice. I thank you for trying to help but it is not necessary."

See, I could respect that. But calling me narrowminded, a dick, a schmuck, an idiot, etc does nothing to further any dialogue and is just downright rude and unprofessional.

[warriorfan707]

2/7/2010 NCAAB System Plays

Ohio State under 128.5
St Peters under 120.5
Manhattan -2.5
Manhattan under 127.5
Maryland under 157
Iona under 122.5

3-3

great here come the trolls now with their coins again

[warriorfan707]

im now gonna go through all the data ive collected and analyze this....

It took a huge step when I made the first modificaton and its now time to the next step in the second modification

[warriorfan707]

Heres the breakdown


Dogs+pk ems 12-18
favorites 42-28
overs 23-19
unders 81-65

[warriorfan707]

From now on if the system likes a dog or a line that is a pk, It will be filtered out.

Next step... Im going to analyze the totals and see which ones are hitting at a significantly less frequency, then I will turn my attention to the heavy favorite lines as I suspect the bigger favorites dont cover as often

The only thing that concerns me about this is I wonder if this a big enough sample and if Im changing this around too quickly...

[frank21]

[DuncHen22]

That's all I was looking for is for you to analyze it and be willing to modify. You're right it may not be a big enough sample size but you can just keep following all of them until you start seeing bigger trends. And you're right about the heavy favorites, yesterday I believe your system had 3 teams -14 or greater and they all lost, so that brings you down to 38-31 right there. Then you take out the dogs+PK and you're at 26-13! That's a hell of a day!

I'm going to apologize for our debate escalating so much. That's all I was really trying to say though is you may have a good system in there, but it needs trimming.

I hope we can let bygones be bygones and I can continue to contribute on this thread because you seem to be onto something here.

[warriorfan707]

Not a problem man, this is just a touchy subject and to be honest I don't care enough to evaluate deeply enough to differentiate the trolls from people who are actually contributing anymore

I apologize too if I was a dick

[warriorfan707]

Ok here we go.... Round 1 of the system was not good.

Round 2 of the system was good.

Heres to hoping round 3 of the system is great. Clean slate, we're starting all over.