Tar Heels tip college season vs. Florida International
The college basketball season begins Monday night with North Carolina getting an early start on defending their title from last season when they meet Florida International in the 2K Sports Classic. Roy Williams lost the core of his Tar Heels club from last season, including Tyler Hansbrough, but still sit high in the preseason rankings as they get underway against Isiah Thomas' Golden Panthers.
They call them “preseason” tournaments. But you and I know better.
Every single game counts in college basketball, starting with this week’s launch of the first of 28 tournaments scattered across the hemisphere. Handicapping these games – many of them mismatches between big and small programs – is somewhat of a challenge. We don’t have any current results to look at, but we can look at the non-conference results from seasons past and make some generalizations.
The North Carolina Tar Heels are worth a look as fade candidates this week. They’ve dropped the cash in their season opener three years in a row:
Nov. 15, 2008: UNC 86, Pennsylvania 71 (Penn +32.5)
Nov. 14, 2007: UNC 72, Davidson 68 (Davidson +11)
Nov. 16, 2006: UNC 103, Sacred Heart 81 (Sacred Heart +34)
The Tar Heels typically find themselves overvalued by coaches and fans in November. The defending national champions are ranked No. 4 in the preseason polls despite considerable turnover: Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington and Danny Green have all moved on to greener pastures. Coach Roy Williams is a brilliant recruiter with plenty of talent in the pipeline, but there’s still a learning curve for these student-athletes to navigate.
North Carolina’s first opponents this year are the Florida International Golden Panthers, who are now coached by none other than Isiah Thomas. Early betting odds had the Panthers getting 31 points in Monday night’s matchup (7:00 p.m. ET) at the 2K Sports Classic.
This was one of the low-end programs in Division I last year; Ken Pomeroy had them at No. 262 out of 344 teams in terms of efficiency, after a 6-26 season (10-14-1 ATS) that put FIU firmly in the Sun Belt basement. But it’s a new-look program under Thomas, who has a collection of JUCO transfers and solid recruits at his disposal.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have also made a habit of starting slowly:
2008-09: 1-2 ATS
2007-08: 1-4 ATS
2006-07: 1-2 ATS
2005-06: 1-2 ATS
2004-05: 2-4 ATS
2003-04: 0-4 ATS
The Irish have name-brand recognition, and occasionally they have some pretty good basketball players, as well. But their results in the Big East haven’t lived up to the hype. Luke Harangody (23.3 points, 11.8 rebounds per game last year) is back for one more season in South Bend, so hope springs eternal, even though the Irish have lost three starters and are relying on Purdue transfer Scott Martin to keep Notre Dame competitive in the Big East.
Notre Dame stars the year at home on Saturday night (7:00 p.m. ET) against the University of North Florida Ospreys, one of last year’s very worst teams at No. 335 in the Pomeroy rankings and 8-22 (1-1 ATS) in the Atlantic Sun Conference. This is actually North Florida’s first official year as a full member of the A-Sun and the first year under coach Matthew Driscoll, a former assistant at Baylor and a big part of the Bears’ turnaround. Like Thomas at FIU, Driscoll is going to rebuild around JUCO transfers and recruits, although he also has four returning starters who would like to continue playing. The Ospreys can be counted on to give it the proverbial college try on Saturday night.
The ideal fade candidate for November just might be the UCLA Bruins, who started last year at 0-3 ATS (including a loss to Michigan) after Kevin Love turned pro. The Bruins were still a very good team last year under coach Ben Howland, but now they have even farther to fall after the departures of Darren Collison, Jrue Holiday, Alfred Aboya and Josh Shipp. Freshman forward Tyler Honeycutt (leg) is also out for the first month of the season, one of several UCLA players to get banged up during practice.
The Bruins tip things off at Pauley Pavilion next Tuesday night (or Wednesday morning in the East, 12:05 a.m.) against the Cal State Fullerton Titans of the Big West Conference. Cal State went 15-17 (12-16 ATS) last year and ranked No. 202 in efficiency. Although the Titans are bringing back four starters, the fifth man was senior guard Josh Akognon (23.9 points per game), who is now playing in Estonia. This year’s team will be deeper and more physical in the paint. There are no gimmes anymore for UCLA.
The college basketball season begins Monday night with North Carolina getting an early start on defending their title from last season when they meet Florida International in the 2K Sports Classic. Roy Williams lost the core of his Tar Heels club from last season, including Tyler Hansbrough, but still sit high in the preseason rankings as they get underway against Isiah Thomas' Golden Panthers.
They call them “preseason” tournaments. But you and I know better.
Every single game counts in college basketball, starting with this week’s launch of the first of 28 tournaments scattered across the hemisphere. Handicapping these games – many of them mismatches between big and small programs – is somewhat of a challenge. We don’t have any current results to look at, but we can look at the non-conference results from seasons past and make some generalizations.
The North Carolina Tar Heels are worth a look as fade candidates this week. They’ve dropped the cash in their season opener three years in a row:
Nov. 15, 2008: UNC 86, Pennsylvania 71 (Penn +32.5)
Nov. 14, 2007: UNC 72, Davidson 68 (Davidson +11)
Nov. 16, 2006: UNC 103, Sacred Heart 81 (Sacred Heart +34)
The Tar Heels typically find themselves overvalued by coaches and fans in November. The defending national champions are ranked No. 4 in the preseason polls despite considerable turnover: Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington and Danny Green have all moved on to greener pastures. Coach Roy Williams is a brilliant recruiter with plenty of talent in the pipeline, but there’s still a learning curve for these student-athletes to navigate.
North Carolina’s first opponents this year are the Florida International Golden Panthers, who are now coached by none other than Isiah Thomas. Early betting odds had the Panthers getting 31 points in Monday night’s matchup (7:00 p.m. ET) at the 2K Sports Classic.
This was one of the low-end programs in Division I last year; Ken Pomeroy had them at No. 262 out of 344 teams in terms of efficiency, after a 6-26 season (10-14-1 ATS) that put FIU firmly in the Sun Belt basement. But it’s a new-look program under Thomas, who has a collection of JUCO transfers and solid recruits at his disposal.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have also made a habit of starting slowly:
2008-09: 1-2 ATS
2007-08: 1-4 ATS
2006-07: 1-2 ATS
2005-06: 1-2 ATS
2004-05: 2-4 ATS
2003-04: 0-4 ATS
The Irish have name-brand recognition, and occasionally they have some pretty good basketball players, as well. But their results in the Big East haven’t lived up to the hype. Luke Harangody (23.3 points, 11.8 rebounds per game last year) is back for one more season in South Bend, so hope springs eternal, even though the Irish have lost three starters and are relying on Purdue transfer Scott Martin to keep Notre Dame competitive in the Big East.
Notre Dame stars the year at home on Saturday night (7:00 p.m. ET) against the University of North Florida Ospreys, one of last year’s very worst teams at No. 335 in the Pomeroy rankings and 8-22 (1-1 ATS) in the Atlantic Sun Conference. This is actually North Florida’s first official year as a full member of the A-Sun and the first year under coach Matthew Driscoll, a former assistant at Baylor and a big part of the Bears’ turnaround. Like Thomas at FIU, Driscoll is going to rebuild around JUCO transfers and recruits, although he also has four returning starters who would like to continue playing. The Ospreys can be counted on to give it the proverbial college try on Saturday night.
The ideal fade candidate for November just might be the UCLA Bruins, who started last year at 0-3 ATS (including a loss to Michigan) after Kevin Love turned pro. The Bruins were still a very good team last year under coach Ben Howland, but now they have even farther to fall after the departures of Darren Collison, Jrue Holiday, Alfred Aboya and Josh Shipp. Freshman forward Tyler Honeycutt (leg) is also out for the first month of the season, one of several UCLA players to get banged up during practice.
The Bruins tip things off at Pauley Pavilion next Tuesday night (or Wednesday morning in the East, 12:05 a.m.) against the Cal State Fullerton Titans of the Big West Conference. Cal State went 15-17 (12-16 ATS) last year and ranked No. 202 in efficiency. Although the Titans are bringing back four starters, the fifth man was senior guard Josh Akognon (23.9 points per game), who is now playing in Estonia. This year’s team will be deeper and more physical in the paint. There are no gimmes anymore for UCLA.
