As soon as the brackets come out, fans often target No. 12 seeds for first-round upsets, because past 12 seeds tend to stick out in everyone’s mind. However, teams seeded No. 12 have a 23-44 record since 2011, when the tournament expanded to 68 teams. No. 11 seeds, on the other hand, have gone 46-44 over that span, a huge contrast to their more sought-after bracket-busting brethren. In fact, No. 11 seeds actually have better records over the past 11 iterations than single-digit seeds such as No. 5s, No. 6s, No. 8s and No. 9s.
However, every national championship-winning team over the past 28 years — with the exception of Arizona in 1997, which didn’t have a conference tournament — has lasted at least to the semifinal round in its conference tournament. So plan on avoiding teams that made an early exit. This year, No. 3 seeds Kansas State and Baylor, No. 4 seed Tennessee, No. 6 seed Kentucky and No. 7 seeds Michigan State and Northwestern lost in or before the quarterfinals of their conference tournaments.
However, every national championship-winning team over the past 28 years — with the exception of Arizona in 1997, which didn’t have a conference tournament — has lasted at least to the semifinal round in its conference tournament. So plan on avoiding teams that made an early exit. This year, No. 3 seeds Kansas State and Baylor, No. 4 seed Tennessee, No. 6 seed Kentucky and No. 7 seeds Michigan State and Northwestern lost in or before the quarterfinals of their conference tournaments.