Sweet 16 betting panel: Take the field over Duke
Sweet 16 betting panel: Take the field over Duke
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How have betting opinions changed since the opening weekend of the NCAA tournament? There is plenty to think about as the tourney resumes. Is Duke still the favorite? Which underdog can make a run? What bet did you miss out on that you wish you had made?
We asked our gambling experts -- Joe Fortenbaugh, Doug Kezirian, Preston Johnson and Jordan Schultz -- where they are putting their money.
Duke remains the betting favorite, even though its odds have changed. Are you still going with the field?
Johnson: I would still go with the field. The fact that the Blue Devils' path includes two of the top three teams in the region just to get to the Final Four, and then their matchup at that point would be one of Gonzaga, Michigan, Texas Tech or Florida State, made their odds drop (rightfully so). I also think UCF set the blueprint on how to defend Duke and maximize any edge that can be had on that side of the court. Teams would be crazy not to implement similar tactics going forward in the tournament.
Fortenbaugh: If given a choice between only Duke and North Carolina, I'm riding with Coby White and the Tar Heels. So the field option is a no-brainer pick in this scenario, given that my arsenal now includes Gonzaga and Michigan State to go along with UNC. For those of you looking to back Zion Williamsonand the Blue Devils, ask yourself the following question: What is it that Duke does better than any other team still alive in the tournament? I'll hang up and listen.
Kezirian: Given that so much chalk has held through the first two rounds, I definitely am opting for the field. Plus, UCF highlighted Duke's weak links with a unique defense that forced the Blue Devils to make outside shots. Of course, Williamson saved the day. Moving forward, I expect more talented teams to capitalize on Duke's 3-point-shooting deficiencies.
Schultz: Duke isn't playing its best basketball right now. As much of a juggernaut as the Blue Devils are, the team ranks 331st nationally in 3-point percentage and its four best players all shoot 33.3 percent or lower from deep. The key to stopping Coach K's team -- or at least slowing it down -- is keeping Zion and company in the half court. You do this with productive, drawn-out possessions and by eliminating live-ball turnovers. There are simply too many experienced teams remaining in the field to safely assume Duke wins four more games.
What is one value bet to come out of a region?
Johnson: I went through all 16 teams, and there isn't a single edge to be had with the current Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook prices for each region. I'm never going to be someone to force a bet anyway, but Gonzaga at -125 to come out of the West was the closest to being a positive expected value play.
Fortenbaugh: Given the fact that No. 1 seeds Duke, Virginia and Gonzaga wouldn't even return an even-money payout on a bet to win their respective regions, I like the idea of backing North Carolina at +120. This Tar Heels offense is operating in incendiary fashion of late, having scored 73 or more points in 14 of their last 15 games. Battle-tested, well-coached and highly proficient at the most important position on the floor (point guard), I have UNC as the best team left in the tournament.
Kezirian: Oregon at 12-1 piques my interest in the South Region. The Ducks are not your regular 12-seed, given it took them some time to adjust to losing star Bol Bol. They have won -- and covered -- 10 straight games with a coach who took the program to the Final Four two years ago. Virginia is certainly a more polished squad, but Oregon's athletic defense could pose problems. If they can pull the upset, the Ducks just might be favored in the Elite Eight.
Schultz: My preseason pick to win a title, Gonzaga is quietly playing exceptional basketball, operating at a very efficient level offensively. This team has at least four future pros, not to mention the leading assist man in school history: Steady veteran point guard Josh Perkins surpassed John Stockton's all-time clip. He is a sound decision-maker who excels in pick-and-roll and always seems to make the right play at the most crucial of times.
What is one underdog of at least five points that can win outright?
Johnson: I'm sticking to my guns with Auburn. If the Tigers' 3s are going down again (13-for-30 against Kansas) then they have the ability to beat anybody in the country. When the shots aren't falling from long range, they are able to create extra possessions with their nation-leading turnover rate. The Tar Heels' edge will be on the offensive glass against an Auburn team that ranks outside the top 300 in defensive rebounding rate. If the Heels can make up the possessions via offensive rebounds that they lose in the turnover margin, then this result probably will just be determined by how many 3s the Tigers knock down. They're certainly capable of getting it done (16th best in the country at 38.2 percent on the season).
Fortenbaugh: Like many others, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to witness Virginia Tech upset Duke on Friday night. Again, name one thing that Duke does better than any other team left in the hunt. The Blue Devils are brutal from 3-point range and already lost to the Hokies on Feb. 26. Granted, Zion was injured during that encounter, but there's a good reason why the early money has been siding with Virginia Tech in this matchup.
Kezirian: Technically, they all can, and that's what makes this slate of games so fun. While we did not see major upsets during the first weekend, we are now left with such competitive games in the Sweet 16. I lean to LSU. The Tigers have top-notch athleticism, and I feel that could plague this Michigan State squad. However, Tom Izzo thrives in March, and the coaching advantage does scare me.
Schultz: We can wax poetic all we want about North Carolina, but the Heels will have their hands full with Bruce Pearl's hot-shooting Auburn Tigers, who connect on nearly 38 percent from distance. Just like Carolina, Auburn operates at a breakneck pace with similar athletes. Despite a lack of interior size, the Tigers have two terrific guards, Jared Harper and Bryce Brown, both of whom average more than 15 PPG and can single-handedly take over a game.
The bet you didn't make and should have ...
Johnson: I think my exact quote from the game previews we did was, "I'm sure I will be kicking myself when Sparty wins by 20." And sure enough, Michigan State beat Minnesota 70-50. That one hurt, but there were other decisions I made to hold off in certain spots that saved me. I can't get too riled up over missing one bet after the fact.
Fortenbaugh: Florida State -4.5 over Murray State. Ja Morant is the real deal, but the public overreacted in a significant way to his triple-double performance against a sputtering Marquette program that had dropped five of its last six games before that showdown. I loved FSU entering the tournament, wrote the Seminoles up as my best futures value bet and then passed at -4.5 against Murray State. You need to have a short memory in order to survive in this business, but I'm still kicking myself over that failure to launch.
Kezirian: Texas Tech -4 against Buffalo. The Bulls were one of my favorite picks in Round 1, so I was probably just too emotionally connected to them. Plus, with so many favorites winning outright on Saturday, I felt the upsets were looming on Sunday. However, this Red Raiders squad has garnered a lot of attention -- and for good reason. They own the nation's top defense, and that was such a short number. Tech is far superior, and I missed that value.
Schultz: Houston over Ohio State. There is no excuse for it either, as I have enjoyed watching the Cougars on both ends of the floor. Why? Because they allow just 61 PPG -- best in the conference -- and have a splendid guard, Corey Davis Jr. On the flip side, I have been down on the Buckeyes ever since they lost at Rutgers in early January. Most upsetting is the fact that I knew Ohio State would struggle to score in this game. Sure enough, OSU managed just 59 points, while shooting under 39 percent. Lesson learned.
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
How have betting opinions changed since the opening weekend of the NCAA tournament? There is plenty to think about as the tourney resumes. Is Duke still the favorite? Which underdog can make a run? What bet did you miss out on that you wish you had made?
We asked our gambling experts -- Joe Fortenbaugh, Doug Kezirian, Preston Johnson and Jordan Schultz -- where they are putting their money.
Duke remains the betting favorite, even though its odds have changed. Are you still going with the field?
Johnson: I would still go with the field. The fact that the Blue Devils' path includes two of the top three teams in the region just to get to the Final Four, and then their matchup at that point would be one of Gonzaga, Michigan, Texas Tech or Florida State, made their odds drop (rightfully so). I also think UCF set the blueprint on how to defend Duke and maximize any edge that can be had on that side of the court. Teams would be crazy not to implement similar tactics going forward in the tournament.
Fortenbaugh: If given a choice between only Duke and North Carolina, I'm riding with Coby White and the Tar Heels. So the field option is a no-brainer pick in this scenario, given that my arsenal now includes Gonzaga and Michigan State to go along with UNC. For those of you looking to back Zion Williamsonand the Blue Devils, ask yourself the following question: What is it that Duke does better than any other team still alive in the tournament? I'll hang up and listen.
Kezirian: Given that so much chalk has held through the first two rounds, I definitely am opting for the field. Plus, UCF highlighted Duke's weak links with a unique defense that forced the Blue Devils to make outside shots. Of course, Williamson saved the day. Moving forward, I expect more talented teams to capitalize on Duke's 3-point-shooting deficiencies.
Schultz: Duke isn't playing its best basketball right now. As much of a juggernaut as the Blue Devils are, the team ranks 331st nationally in 3-point percentage and its four best players all shoot 33.3 percent or lower from deep. The key to stopping Coach K's team -- or at least slowing it down -- is keeping Zion and company in the half court. You do this with productive, drawn-out possessions and by eliminating live-ball turnovers. There are simply too many experienced teams remaining in the field to safely assume Duke wins four more games.
What is one value bet to come out of a region?
Johnson: I went through all 16 teams, and there isn't a single edge to be had with the current Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook prices for each region. I'm never going to be someone to force a bet anyway, but Gonzaga at -125 to come out of the West was the closest to being a positive expected value play.
Fortenbaugh: Given the fact that No. 1 seeds Duke, Virginia and Gonzaga wouldn't even return an even-money payout on a bet to win their respective regions, I like the idea of backing North Carolina at +120. This Tar Heels offense is operating in incendiary fashion of late, having scored 73 or more points in 14 of their last 15 games. Battle-tested, well-coached and highly proficient at the most important position on the floor (point guard), I have UNC as the best team left in the tournament.
Kezirian: Oregon at 12-1 piques my interest in the South Region. The Ducks are not your regular 12-seed, given it took them some time to adjust to losing star Bol Bol. They have won -- and covered -- 10 straight games with a coach who took the program to the Final Four two years ago. Virginia is certainly a more polished squad, but Oregon's athletic defense could pose problems. If they can pull the upset, the Ducks just might be favored in the Elite Eight.
Schultz: My preseason pick to win a title, Gonzaga is quietly playing exceptional basketball, operating at a very efficient level offensively. This team has at least four future pros, not to mention the leading assist man in school history: Steady veteran point guard Josh Perkins surpassed John Stockton's all-time clip. He is a sound decision-maker who excels in pick-and-roll and always seems to make the right play at the most crucial of times.
What is one underdog of at least five points that can win outright?
Johnson: I'm sticking to my guns with Auburn. If the Tigers' 3s are going down again (13-for-30 against Kansas) then they have the ability to beat anybody in the country. When the shots aren't falling from long range, they are able to create extra possessions with their nation-leading turnover rate. The Tar Heels' edge will be on the offensive glass against an Auburn team that ranks outside the top 300 in defensive rebounding rate. If the Heels can make up the possessions via offensive rebounds that they lose in the turnover margin, then this result probably will just be determined by how many 3s the Tigers knock down. They're certainly capable of getting it done (16th best in the country at 38.2 percent on the season).
Fortenbaugh: Like many others, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to witness Virginia Tech upset Duke on Friday night. Again, name one thing that Duke does better than any other team left in the hunt. The Blue Devils are brutal from 3-point range and already lost to the Hokies on Feb. 26. Granted, Zion was injured during that encounter, but there's a good reason why the early money has been siding with Virginia Tech in this matchup.
Kezirian: Technically, they all can, and that's what makes this slate of games so fun. While we did not see major upsets during the first weekend, we are now left with such competitive games in the Sweet 16. I lean to LSU. The Tigers have top-notch athleticism, and I feel that could plague this Michigan State squad. However, Tom Izzo thrives in March, and the coaching advantage does scare me.
Schultz: We can wax poetic all we want about North Carolina, but the Heels will have their hands full with Bruce Pearl's hot-shooting Auburn Tigers, who connect on nearly 38 percent from distance. Just like Carolina, Auburn operates at a breakneck pace with similar athletes. Despite a lack of interior size, the Tigers have two terrific guards, Jared Harper and Bryce Brown, both of whom average more than 15 PPG and can single-handedly take over a game.
The bet you didn't make and should have ...
Johnson: I think my exact quote from the game previews we did was, "I'm sure I will be kicking myself when Sparty wins by 20." And sure enough, Michigan State beat Minnesota 70-50. That one hurt, but there were other decisions I made to hold off in certain spots that saved me. I can't get too riled up over missing one bet after the fact.
Fortenbaugh: Florida State -4.5 over Murray State. Ja Morant is the real deal, but the public overreacted in a significant way to his triple-double performance against a sputtering Marquette program that had dropped five of its last six games before that showdown. I loved FSU entering the tournament, wrote the Seminoles up as my best futures value bet and then passed at -4.5 against Murray State. You need to have a short memory in order to survive in this business, but I'm still kicking myself over that failure to launch.
Kezirian: Texas Tech -4 against Buffalo. The Bulls were one of my favorite picks in Round 1, so I was probably just too emotionally connected to them. Plus, with so many favorites winning outright on Saturday, I felt the upsets were looming on Sunday. However, this Red Raiders squad has garnered a lot of attention -- and for good reason. They own the nation's top defense, and that was such a short number. Tech is far superior, and I missed that value.
Schultz: Houston over Ohio State. There is no excuse for it either, as I have enjoyed watching the Cougars on both ends of the floor. Why? Because they allow just 61 PPG -- best in the conference -- and have a splendid guard, Corey Davis Jr. On the flip side, I have been down on the Buckeyes ever since they lost at Rutgers in early January. Most upsetting is the fact that I knew Ohio State would struggle to score in this game. Sure enough, OSU managed just 59 points, while shooting under 39 percent. Lesson learned.