What's the blueprint for beating No. 1 seeds? Opposing coaches weigh in

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  • Hman
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 11-04-17
    • 21429

    #1
    What's the blueprint for beating No. 1 seeds? Opposing coaches weigh in
    What's the blueprint for beating No. 1 seeds? Opposing coaches weigh in

    ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)


    The top 12 teams in the NCAA tournament all reached the Sweet 16, and the four 1-seeds are all still favored to reach the Final Four in Minneapolis.


    Will the chalk results continue? I reached out to coaches who have faced the four 1-seeds to find out which team in each region poses the biggest challenge to the favorite.

    Duke

    Potential pitfall: LSU
    Why: "LSU is super, super talented. They're high-level talented. You could argue that they're just as talented as Duke. Tremont [Waters], Javonte [Smart], the big kids, wings that are super athletic and strong. They've got a chip on their shoulder with [suspended head coach Will Wade] not being around. But [interim coach Tony] Benford is seasoned enough to get them through. LSU will be a team to circle. Not just high-level athletes, they've got shooters and they've got toughness. Skylar Mays is as tough as anyone in the country, and he makes shots. They've got the right crew down there. They're embracing it. Those kids don't want to lose." -- ACC assistant coach



    Gonzaga

    Potential pitfall: Florida State
    Why: "They're all very good teams with the ability to beat Gonzaga. All of those teams (Michigan, Texas Tech, Florida State) have good guards, but I think Florida State's size, length and athleticism in the frontcourt could neutralize or slow down [Brandon] Clarke and Rui [Hachimura]. They also have impressive depth. If [Phil] Cofer doesn't play, then that's a blow to Florida State, but at full strength, their depth is an advantage. The Zags put so much pressure on you with their bigs being able to ball screen and roll. They have the ability to find their bigs to make plays. They also offensive rebound very well. I thought Saint Mary's did a great job of 'dropping' on the ball screens to make the guards take contested 2s and take away the roll. Florida State's frontcourt could neutralize the pick-and-roll with their athleticism and take away second shots, which would be huge." -- WCC assistant coach


    "I can't say that. They had a unique thing, they had Tacko. Tacko's length at the rim creates a different type of problem," one ACC assistant said. "You have to throw something where they can't just be reactive and go attack. Spacing off Tre, I don't think it's the key. It worked for UCF because they had the elite rim-protector. I think Tre's a good player. I understand why UCF did it, but I don't think every team can do that. Tre's tough. He's good enough to mess around and make two or three 3s next game. I wouldn't game plan that way and just say, 'Let him beat you.' UCF's deal with Tacko was unique. They're able to scheme in a way because they've got a unique dynamic. It's smart."


    In a vacuum, forcing Duke to settle for outside shots instead of getting clean drives to the rim is a good defensive strategy. Of course, it's easier said than done. And though the Blue Devils struggle to make shots from the perimeter consistently, as John Gasaway pointed out on Tuesday, it often doesn't matter because they're so good inside the arc.


    "What drives it is the ability they have at the rim," one opposing coach said. "Their pressure and putting athletes on the ball. You know Duke doesn't shoot it well, but the key with them is it's damn near impossible to keep them out of transition. They get into a rhythm in transition. RJ [Barrett] makes a couple 3s, Zion makes a couple 3s. They're so good downhill that they don't have to make 3s to beat you. It's not enough to say, 'Make them shoot 3s.' You have to disorient them offensively. Mix up concepts defensively. Not turning it over, not taking bad 3s that lead to breaks. Those guys in transition are as good as anyone in the world."


    What has changed for Auburn?

    Exactly one month prior to Auburn's blowout win over Kansas on Saturday, the Tigers were in the midst of getting blown out by Kentucky. The 27-point loss to the Wildcats dropped Auburn to 7-7 in the SEC and the precipice of the bubble.


    The Tigers haven't lost since.


    Auburn has rattled off 10 wins in a row and has had one of the best offenses in the country over that stretch. The Tigers have scored 1.18 points per possession and made 12.2 3-pointers per game during the winning streak; both of those numbers would rank in the top three nationally if stretched over the course of a full season.


    "They're getting more production out of more guys now," one SEC assistant said. "[Danjel] Purifoy is making one or two extra 3s a game now. [J'Von] McCormick is giving them more production. Everyone knows it's the [Jared] Harper-[Bryce] Brown show, but they're getting more production out of all their guys. They're settling into their roles. We know Bryce is gonna shoot, we know Jared is gonna shoot, but McCormick is coming off the bench, [Samir] Doughty, [Chuma] Okeke is producing, they're hard to beat. It's obvious, but when they're making 3s, you're in trouble. I just feel like now, they're getting a high level of confidence and more production out of more guys."


    Defensively, Auburn has actually been worse over that 10-game stretch -- going from No. 32 in adjusted defensive efficiency (per BartTorvik.com) before the winning streak to No. 43 now. The Tigers have allowed at least one point per possession in eight of the 10 wins. With that said, Auburn is forcing turnovers and making opponents uncomfortable.


    "They make you play like them," another SEC assistant said. "We like to slow it down, but when you play against them, they speed you up. They gamble, but they make you play how they want to play. They do a good job of converting off turnovers. And it's not converting layups, it's converting 3s. That's what really kills you."


    Mfiondu Kabengele boosts NBA draft stock

    Florida State sophomore big man Mfiondu Kabengele is one of the most unique players in college basketball. He's 6-foot-10 and 250 pounds, has a 7-foot-4 wingspan, can guard multiple positions and can make shots from the perimeter -- and he's not a starter.


    Kabengele still plays extended minutes despite coming off the bench behind Christ Koumadje. His role hasn't hurt his production. Kabengele had 21 points and 10 rebounds in 29 minutes against Vermont in the first round, then went for 22 points, seven rebounds and three blocks in 23 minutes against Murray State.


    He could be playing himself into the first round.


    "He has this relentless competitive drive to be successful," one assistant who coached against him multiple times said. "He is as aggressive a 5-man as you're going to see. He's decisive in terms of where to attack, whether it's getting his jumper, midline and finish, 3 in transition, [or] flash to the free throw line. He's decisive. I think he's really locked in. He's as good a pro prospect at that position as anyone in the country. He's the leading scorer for Florida State, which is having the best season since Leonard [Hamilton]'s been there, and he doesn't start. The big kid [Koumadje] is solid and stable and makes it really hard to score on them. Kabengele doesn't guard with the same intensity because he doesn't want to foul. So he comes off the bench, and they let him be as aggressive as he wants to be. I love that group."


    Kabengele will have one of his toughest matchups of the season on Thursday, when he goes toe-to-toe with Gonzaga's big man duo of Brandon Clarke and Rui Hachimura. Another strong performance against those two projected first-rounders, and Kabengele's stock will rise higher.


    "That kid isn't scared of anything," one coach said. "I watched him against Duke in the ACC championship and he was talking to Zion. He was locked in to do what he's gotta do. When that kid is going, there's not many with more ability and talent. Athletically, his sheer size, sheer presence, he brings a ton."


    Kentucky with and without PJ Washington

    No one seems to know the true status of Kentucky sophomore PJ Washington, and John Calipari didn't seem overly confident on Monday, when he said, "We don't know if PJ is going to play this weekend yet." Washington was on Kentucky's bench for the first weekend of the tournament with his left foot in a boot and hard cast, wheeling around on a scooter.


    That's generally not the image of someone who is going to play at full strength, or at all, in the second weekend.


    So how different is Kentucky without its star?


    "He's their best player," an SEC assistant said. "[Tyler] Herro is close. People labeled him as a shooter early on, but he's much more than that. I just think they rally around [Washington]. When he makes big plays, you can see how much energy it brings to their team. Without him out there, they're obviously still good, but he takes them to a different level.


    "He does an unbelievable job drawing fouls. Even when he doesn't have the ball, he cuts across the lane and draws one or two fouls a game. He's their emotional leader. He gives them confidence."


    EJ Montgomery and Nick Richardsessentially split up Washington's minutes down low, with Montgomery starting and Richards coming off the bench. The two combined for 11 points and 15 rebounds against Abilene Christian and eight points and five rebounds against Wofford.


    Interestingly, redshirt freshman guard Jemarl Baker Jr. saw the biggest increase in minutes. He brings perimeter pop and an ability to make shots from 3-point range, something that Washington added more consistently to his game as a sophomore. Baker didn't even play in the SEC tournament semifinals and saw double-digit minutes just twice in the past 10 games. But he played 42 total minutes in the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament, making a pair of 3-pointers and scoring 15 points off the bench.


    "What a lot of teams are doing, they're finding Kentucky is so hard to defend on the interior, they're playing off [Ashton] Hagans," one SEC assistant coach said. "They've had to throw Baker in there because he's known as a shooter and he can come in and change the game from 3."


    Cassius Winston vs. Tremont Waters

    There's no Ja Morant vs. Markus Howard matchup to get the masses excited this weekend, but the point guard battle between Michigan State's Cassius Winston and LSU's Tremont Waters might be even more intriguing.


    Winston was arguably the best point guard in the country this season, carrying Michigan State to a share of the Big Ten regular-season title and then sparking the comeback to win the Big Ten tournament championship. Waters is electric with the ball in his hands, capable of carving up opposing defenses off the dribble. He's also full of confidence late in games, as we saw when he hit the game-winning layup to beat Maryland in the second round.


    There's a major contrast here in styles, but that's what should make it fun.


    "They're different type of guards, but they both can score," one coach who has scouted both guards said. "Waters is a jet. Winston looks like he's going in slow motion, but [it's] hard to keep him out of the paint. You can see how fast Waters is. The good thing is both of them will always come through when they need a basket.


    "Winston gets in the paint because he changes speeds well. Once he gets you on his hip, he's going to keep you there. It's kind of like Kyle Lowry. How does he keep getting by his guy?


    "Waters, I think [his improvement] has to do with the players around him. He had Skylar Mays last year, but now with all the talent, sometimes you can forget about him this year. And that's when he gets you. He's had to force less and lets it come to him."


    One opposing coach said the difference could simply be the fact that Winston has willed Michigan State to victories time and again this season.


    "It looks like they're going to lose the game, and you check the box score or go back and watch, and it's Cassius Winston making every play," he said.


    My revised picks

    Actually, I'm not revising anything.


    My entire Elite Eight and Final Four remain intact from Selection Sunday, and I'm still going with Duke to win it all by beating Virginia in the title game -- although that looks a bit more dicey after the Blue Devils' struggles with UCF.


    I still like Duke over LSU in the East, Texas Tech over Gonzaga in the West and Virginia over Tennessee in the South. I still have North Carolina coming out of the Midwest, but the Sweet 16 game I'm most interested in changing is Kentucky vs. Houston.


    I had Kentucky on Selection Sunday, but Washington's availability throws a wrench into that pick. Houston has the defense to really frustrate Kentucky, although the Cougars will have to watch their fouls and keep Kentucky off the offensive glass. Can Corey Davis Jr. make enough shots to lead Kelvin Sampson's team into the Elite Eight?
    Virginia

    Potential pitfall: Tennessee
    Why: "Just their physicality, they're a hard-nosed group that has played together a ton. [Grant] Williams, [Admiral] Schofield, [Jordan] Bone, those are tough guys. They have athleticism. They're the kind of group that can put pressure on Virginia. Athletically, Virginia is going to be overmatched. Kyle Guy, he's savvy enough to make plays and make shots, but those [Tennessee] guys ... they're mature. They remind me of Florida State; they don't have guys going out there trying to be a draft pick. Virginia's such a machine, their approach -- you have to shoot it and be disciplined, and not a lot of teams are good enough at both to beat them. They're businesslike." -- ACC assistant coach
    North Carolina

    Potential pitfall: Auburn
    Why: "Auburn's going to be a tough out for Carolina. I don't think Carolina is that gritty or tough. Coby [White] is tough when he gets going. But I'm talking in terms of guard play, pick-and-roll, read-progressions, feel. He takes advantage of spacing. When you're playing Auburn and the kid [Jared] Harper, he's a killer. He understands what's on the line. Bruce [Pearl] will have those guys ready to play. They're going to play with tempo, they're going to shoot 3s. The challenge is, will Auburn rebound well enough? I think that's a pick 'em game. I don't think Kentucky is as gritty and tough as Auburn is. Coby is usually the most athletic guy going, and the way they play creates pace. But I don't think when it's [crunch] time, in the half court, gotta figure it out, they're as tough." -- ACC assistant coach
    Did UCF provide the blueprint for beating Duke?

    Until Aubrey Dawkins' follow tip-in rolled off the rim and the buzzer sounded on Duke's 77-76 win over UCF, it looked like the Blue Devils' season was going to end on Sunday night. The Knights made life miserable for Duke. Zion Williamson carried the Blue Devils, but even he had one of his least-efficient offensive performances of the season -- and no one else could help him consistently in the second half.
    UCF packed the paint, kept 7-foot-6 Tacko Fall in front of the basket and dared the Blue Devils -- specifically Tre Jones -- to shoot from the perimeter. And it almost worked.
    Is that the best way to beat Duke?
  • Louisvillekid1
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 10-17-07
    • 52143

    #2
    Unc so tough because you can’t crash the glass because they kill you in transition

    You have to make them shoot the 3 and slow the game.

    Make them play in the half court , so no live ball turnovers.

    Duke the book is out

    UVA you just have to be red hot from 3, bottom line

    Zags aren’t losing so no worries there, mich st can get em but think that’s it
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