Ranking the best NBA draft prospects by stats and scouting
Ranking the best NBA draft prospects by stats and scouting
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
As expected, Duke's Zion Williamson is No. 1 in my 2019 NBA draft statistical projections. Who's next? Days before the start of the NCAA tournament, let's take a first full look at my projections for college prospects potentially in this year's draft.
My statistical projections start by translating NCAA performance to projected NBA rookie performance, factoring in regression to the mean for outlier performance. I then calculate projected value over the player's first five NBA seasons by combining rookie projections with age. To that stats-only version, I add a consensus wins above replacement (WARP) projection that improves predictive power by incorporating where players rank in my colleague Jonathan Givony's top 100 rankings.
I introduced two key adjustments to the projections last year. First, I now incorporate translated performance in the Nike EYBL, thanks to statistics compiled by Neil Johnson of ESPN Stats & Info. Second, I'm adjusting for replacement level by position to account for the surplus of productive big men entering the league.
For more details and past projections, check out a more detailed explanation. Otherwise, let's get to my top 30.
1. Zion Williamson
Duke
PF
Top 100: No. 1
Stats: No. 1
Consensus: 5.4 WARP
When I took a detailed look at Zion's projection in late February, I suggested that he could catch Anthony Davis for the best college projection in my database with a strong finish to the season. Alas, Williamson suffered an MCL sprain in the opening minutes of that night's game against North Carolina, sidelining him until last weekend's ACC Tournament and ruling out that possibility.
Nonetheless, Zion will be the highest-rated player in this year's draft and one of the best prospects in recent memory.
2. Ja Morant
Murray State
PG
Top 100: No. 3
Stats: No. 6
Consensus: 3.1 WARP
My colleagues Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz discussed Morant's case as the No. 2 prospect in this year's draft after he led Murray State to the OVC title and the NCAA tournament.
That's where my consensus projections put him. It helps that though Morant is a sophomore, he's young for his class -- just three weeks older, for example, than Duke freshman Cam Reddish. Morant also projects as an elite playmaker. Among college players in the ESPN top 100, only Michigan State point guard Cassius Winston has a better projected NBA assist rate than Morant.
3. Cam Reddish
Duke
SG
Top 100: No. 4
Stats: No. 14
Consensus: 2.4 WARP
Reddish's projection owes more to his strong 2017 performance as a rising senior in the EYBL, in which he was solidly efficient in a huge role on offense, than his freshman campaign at Duke. Eventually, Reddish is going to have to translate his solid shooting form into more consistent 3-point accuracy, having shot 33 percent this past season. If so, his other skills will make him a valuable wing player.
4. RJ Barrett
Duke
F/G
Top 100: No. 2
Stats: No. 33
Consensus: 2.4 WARP
Barrett's volume scoring gives him the highest projected usage rate as an NBA rookie of any underclassmen in the top 100. The question is whether Barrett will score efficiently enough to justify that big a role, particularly as a young player. While Barrett is a strong playmaker for a wing, the rest of his game doesn't project particularly well. Notably, his steal rate is surprisingly weak for a player with his athletic gifts.
5. Bol Bol
Oregon
C
Top 100: No. 14
Stats: No. 4
Consensus: 2.4 WARP
Even with an adjustment for the high replacement level at center, Bol is a top-five prospect by my stats-only model because of his prolific shot-blocking and high-percentage finishing, first in the EYBL and then during his nine-game stint at Oregon. Only one player in my database -- Hassan Whiteside -- has had a higher projected block rate than Bol as a freshman.
6. Tyrese Haliburton
Iowa State
PG
Top 100: NR
Stats: No. 2
Consensus: 2.1 WARP
The season's most surprising statistical standout, Haliburton was a three-star recruit, according to ESPN Recruiting Nation, who immediately became a starter at Big 12 tournament champ Iowa State and has posted a fascinating stat line. Playing largely off the ball and shooting selectively (his usage rate is just 9.3 percent), Haliburton has been uber-efficient, making 68 percent of his 2s and 44 percent of his 3s. Add strong rates of assists, steals and blocks and Haliburton's youth (he didn't turn 19 until February), and you get an elite stats-only projection.
Realistically, Haliburton will almost certainly return to school and will have an opportunity to prove that his efficiency can translate in a larger role with the departures of seniors Marial Shayok and Nick Weiler-Babb.
7. Darius Garland
Vanderbilt
PG
Top 100: 5
Stats: No. 25
Consensus: 2.0 WARP
Since Garland's NCAA career ended after just 139 minutes due to a meniscus tear, it's useful to have EYBL stats to aid in his projection. That shows him as a good but not great prospect. Garland's steal rate was a weakness against EYBL competition.
8. Dedric Lawson
Kansas
F
Top 100: 43
Stats: No. 3
Consensus: 1.9 WARP
After sitting out a year as a transfer from Memphis, Lawson proved that his production could translate against high-major competition. Although his shot-blocking is unlikely to carry over in the NBA, his ability to stretch the floor (37 percent on 3s this season) should allow him to play facing the basket.
9. Talen Horton-Tucker
Iowa State
F
Top 100: 15
Stats: No. 12
Consensus: 1.8 WARP
The more conventional of the Cyclones' productive freshmen, Horton-Tucker is merely a 6-foot-4, 233-pound frontcourt player with perimeter skills. Built somewhat like Houston Rockets forward P.J. Tucker, Horton-Tucker isn't that kind of defender but is capable of creating shots for himself or others.
Horton-Tucker will have to improve his 3-point accuracy (31 percent) to live up to this projection, but time is on his side. Horton-Tucker won't turn 19 until next November, making him the youngest player in the top 100.
10. Shamorie Ponds
St. John's
PG
Top 100: 46
Stats: No. 5
Consensus: 1.8 WARP
Although scouts are skeptical of his size (a listed 6-foot-1) and shoot-first style, Ponds' well-rounded game rates well. He projects in the top 25 percent of NBA-bound point guards in seven of the 10 skill-based categories I assess, tied with Williamson for the most strengths of any collegiate prospect.
11. Jarrett Culver
Texas Tech
G/F
Top 100: 7
Stats: No. 37
Consensus: 1.7 WARP
Culver looks the part of an elite wing prospect but doesn't have the statistical profile of one. His projection isn't bad so much as uninspiring. Culver projects in the top 25 percent of NBA-bound wings in only one category: block rate.
12. Chuma Okeke
Auburn
F
Top 100: 33
Stats: No. 10
Consensus: 1.6 WARP
By contrast to Culver, Okeke is far more productive, particularly at the defensive end of the court, where he rates in the top 25 percent of NBA-bound forwards in both steal and block rates. If Okeke's 38 percent career 3-point shooting translates to the NBA (and his 70 percent accuracy on free throws is a concern there), he figures to develop into a useful starter.
13. Jaxson Hayes
Texas
C
Top 100: 10
Stats: No. 34
Consensus: 1.5 WARP
Hayes' ability to finish above the rim is ideal for a modern NBA non-shooting center. Per Synergy Sports, his 80 percent shooting as a roll man was the best of any Division I player with at least 50 such opportunities. Hayes is also in the nation's top 20 in block rate. However, his pursuit of blocks tends to lead to fouls (5.6 per 40 minutes) and often leaves him out of position on the defensive glass, weaknesses that will limit Hayes' NBA value.
14. De'Andre Hunter
Virginia
SF
Top 100: 6
Stats: No. 60
Consensus: 1.5 WARP
Hunter's statistical projections are relatively weak for a couple of key reasons. First, as a redshirt, he's already 21. Second, the ACC Defensive Player of the Year isn't getting much credit on that end because of his relatively low steal and block rates.
While those can be indicators of an overrated individual defender, they also might reflect the risk-averse style favored by Tony Bennett's pack-line defense. Although Hunter's 46 percent 3-point shooting this season won't likely carry over intact to the NBA, he should still be a valuable 3-and-D contributor.
15. Matisse Thybulle
Washington
G/F
Top 100: 29
Stats: No. 11
Consensus: 1.5 WARP
Arguably the nation's best perimeter defender, Thybulle has been a destructive force as part of the 2-3 zone defense Mike Hopkins brought to the Huskies from his long tenure on Jim Boeheim's coaching staff at Syracuse. Before Thybulle, no prospect in my database had ever been projected for a steal rate of better than three per 100 plays and blocks on better than 2 percent of opponent 2-point attempts.
Given the long track record of Syracuse prospects underperforming their defensive numbers in the zone, it's unlikely that Thybulle will quite live up to that, but his two years playing primarily man-to-man under previous coach Lorenzo Romar suggest that Thybulle can still be a quality defender against either guard spot and most small forwards.
16. Brandon Clarke
Gonzaga
PF
Top 100: 20
Stats: No. 17
Consensus: 1.4 WARP
Only Zion has posted a better box plus-minus rating this season than Clarke, who has dominated in his first season after transferring to Gonzaga from San Jose State.
Like Williamson, Clarke has been a hyper-efficient finisher (71 percent on 2s) and made a big impact at the defensive end (his projected block rate ranks sixth among top-100 players). At a listed 6-foot-8, 215 pounds, Clarke has a very different frame. But he should be able to carve out an NBA role as either a tiny center or a playmaking power forward.
17. John Konchar
Purdue-Fort Wayne
SG
Top 100: 60
Stats: No. 7
Consensus: 1.4 WARP
Givony highlighted Konchar as a sleeper to watch prior to his junior season, and nothing has changed as Konchar wraps up a phenomenal four-year career for the Mastodons. A career 42 percent 3-point shooter, Konchar has made 63 percent of his attempts inside the arc and is a strong playmaker for his size.
18. Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Virginia Tech
PG
Top 100: 18
Stats: No. 18
Consensus: 1.4 WARP
Less heralded as a freshman than his cousin, LA Clippers rookie Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Alexander-Walker has taken a solid step forward as a sophomore. In particular, he has improved his playmaking after playing primarily off the ball as a freshman. A 39 percent career 3-point shooter, Alexander-Walker could end up playing either guard spot in the NBA.
19. Markus Howard
Marquette
PG
Top 100: 84
Stats: No. 8
Consensus: 1.4 WARP
The concern about Howard is as obvious as his listed 5-foot-11 height. Since Isaiah Thomas in 2011, the past four sub-6-footers to be drafted (Kay Felder, Pierre Jackson, Shane Larkin and Tyler Ulis) have been unable to stick in the NBA.
Howard is a supremely skilled shooter (his 91 percent career foul shooting is fifth among players to make at least 300 free throws since 1992-93, per Sports-Reference.com), offering hope that he can carve out a role similar to the one 6-footer Patty Mills has played.
20. Sam Hauser
Marquette
F
Top 100: NR
Stats: No. 9
Consensus: 1.4 WARP
How good a shooter is Hauser? This year's 40 percent accuracy on 3s is down substantially from his 45 percent career mark. At 6-foot-8, Hauser's upside is a career similar to slightly bigger Marquette product Steve Novak. As with Novak, though, the question is whether Hauser will be able to stay on the court defensively.
21. Coby White
North Carolina
PG
Top 100: 16
Stats: No. 24
Consensus: 1.4 WARP
Per Sports-Reference.com, only one freshman -- Williamson -- has been more efficient (in terms of true shooting percentage) than White while using a larger share of his team's plays. Given the track record of one-and-done point guards, it will probably take a while for White to score efficiently in the NBA, but his combination of scoring potential and size is intriguing down the road.
22. Romeo Langford
Indiana
G/F
Top 100: 8
Stats: No. 59
Consensus: 1.4 WARP
The key question for Langford's NBA prospects is whether this season's 27 percent 3-point shooting is fluky. Langford has good form and has shot a more respectable 72 percent from the foul line, offering hope that he can spread the floor as a pro. But he hasn't done much as a freshman to fill out the box score beyond scoring.
23. Nassir Little
North Carolina
SF
Top 100: 11
Stats: No. 47
Consensus: 1.3 WARP
You probably didn't need a statistical projection to know that Little's performance as a freshman has been underwhelming. He has made just 13 3-pointers all season -- a concern as he transitions to the longer NBA line, though his 77 percent foul shooting is encouraging -- and projects in the top 25 percent of NBA-bound small forwards in only one area: 2-point percentage.
24. Dylan Windler
Belmont
SF
Top 100: 34
Stats: No. 15
Consensus: 1.3 WARP
Extra attention on the OVC because of Morant might have helped scouts notice how productive Windler had become. One of the nation's more efficient high scorers, he's a career 67 percent shooter on 2s and 41 percent shooter on 3s, though as my colleague Mike Schmitz has noted, those numbers declined substantially against top competition.
25. Jontay Porter
Missouri
C
Top 100: 22
Stats: No. 23
Consensus: 1.2 WARP
The younger brother of 2018 lottery pick Michael Porter Jr., Jontay had a strong freshman season with Michael mostly sidelined but subsequently suffered his own injury -- a torn ACL during a closed scrimmage against Southern Illinois. When healthy, Porter should be a stretch-5 with excellent passing ability from the perimeter. The question is whether he's athletic enough to hold up defending NBA pick-and-rolls.
26. Kevin Porter Jr.
USC
SF
Top 100: 21
Stats: No. 26
Consensus: 1.2 WARP
Porter presents one of the most extreme contrasts you'll see, between his 3-point shooting as a freshman (41 percent on 68 attempts) and his foul shooting (52 percent on 46 attempts). His true shooting ability probably lies somewhere in between. Porter shot just 32 percent on 151 3-point attempts in the Nike EYBL, but he hit a more credible 66 percent of his 112 free throw attempts.
27. Ty Jerome
Virginia
G
Top 100: 30
Stats: No. 21
Consensus: 1.0 WARP
Jerome's playmaking this season -- 10.7 assists per 100 possessions -- has demonstrated that he can play the point at 6-foot-5, with enough shooting ability (39 percent career from 3) to play off the ball if necessary. Unlike his more heralded teammate Hunter, Jerome has racked up steals at a high rate.
28. Cassius Winston
Michigan State
PG
Top 100: 85
Stats: No. 13
Consensus: 1.0 WARP
The Big Ten Player of the Year has carried a Michigan State team that won the conference tournament Sunday, creating nearly half the Spartans' field goals between his own baskets and assists. As noted earlier, his projected assist rate is tops among top-100 prospects, yet Winston is near the bottom of that list, largely because he's listed at 6-foot-1.
29. Grant Williams
Tennessee
PF
Top 100: 24
Stats: No. 42
Consensus: 1.0 WARP
Williams is the exception to the rule that undersized, highly productive college players usually project better statistically than they do in the eyes of NBA decision-makers. Although Williams' age is a strength (just 20 as a junior, he's younger than eight of the 14 sophomores in the top 100), his below-average efficiency as a sophomore (.544 true shooting percentage) and middling defensive rebound percentage work against his projection.
30. Tre Jones
Duke
PG
Top 100: 27
Stats: No. 39
Consensus: 1.0 WARP
The last of the four Duke freshmen with a chance to go in the first round, Jones figures to struggle with scoring efficiency early in his career. He has made just 25 percent of his 3-point attempts this season and 48 percent of his 2s, though solid foul shooting (78 percent) offers hope for future development from downtown to go with Jones' playmaking and quick hands on D.
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
As expected, Duke's Zion Williamson is No. 1 in my 2019 NBA draft statistical projections. Who's next? Days before the start of the NCAA tournament, let's take a first full look at my projections for college prospects potentially in this year's draft.
My statistical projections start by translating NCAA performance to projected NBA rookie performance, factoring in regression to the mean for outlier performance. I then calculate projected value over the player's first five NBA seasons by combining rookie projections with age. To that stats-only version, I add a consensus wins above replacement (WARP) projection that improves predictive power by incorporating where players rank in my colleague Jonathan Givony's top 100 rankings.
I introduced two key adjustments to the projections last year. First, I now incorporate translated performance in the Nike EYBL, thanks to statistics compiled by Neil Johnson of ESPN Stats & Info. Second, I'm adjusting for replacement level by position to account for the surplus of productive big men entering the league.
For more details and past projections, check out a more detailed explanation. Otherwise, let's get to my top 30.
1. Zion Williamson
Duke
PF
Top 100: No. 1
Stats: No. 1
Consensus: 5.4 WARP
When I took a detailed look at Zion's projection in late February, I suggested that he could catch Anthony Davis for the best college projection in my database with a strong finish to the season. Alas, Williamson suffered an MCL sprain in the opening minutes of that night's game against North Carolina, sidelining him until last weekend's ACC Tournament and ruling out that possibility.
Nonetheless, Zion will be the highest-rated player in this year's draft and one of the best prospects in recent memory.
2. Ja Morant
Murray State
PG
Top 100: No. 3
Stats: No. 6
Consensus: 3.1 WARP
My colleagues Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz discussed Morant's case as the No. 2 prospect in this year's draft after he led Murray State to the OVC title and the NCAA tournament.
That's where my consensus projections put him. It helps that though Morant is a sophomore, he's young for his class -- just three weeks older, for example, than Duke freshman Cam Reddish. Morant also projects as an elite playmaker. Among college players in the ESPN top 100, only Michigan State point guard Cassius Winston has a better projected NBA assist rate than Morant.
3. Cam Reddish
Duke
SG
Top 100: No. 4
Stats: No. 14
Consensus: 2.4 WARP
Reddish's projection owes more to his strong 2017 performance as a rising senior in the EYBL, in which he was solidly efficient in a huge role on offense, than his freshman campaign at Duke. Eventually, Reddish is going to have to translate his solid shooting form into more consistent 3-point accuracy, having shot 33 percent this past season. If so, his other skills will make him a valuable wing player.
4. RJ Barrett
Duke
F/G
Top 100: No. 2
Stats: No. 33
Consensus: 2.4 WARP
Barrett's volume scoring gives him the highest projected usage rate as an NBA rookie of any underclassmen in the top 100. The question is whether Barrett will score efficiently enough to justify that big a role, particularly as a young player. While Barrett is a strong playmaker for a wing, the rest of his game doesn't project particularly well. Notably, his steal rate is surprisingly weak for a player with his athletic gifts.
5. Bol Bol
Oregon
C
Top 100: No. 14
Stats: No. 4
Consensus: 2.4 WARP
Even with an adjustment for the high replacement level at center, Bol is a top-five prospect by my stats-only model because of his prolific shot-blocking and high-percentage finishing, first in the EYBL and then during his nine-game stint at Oregon. Only one player in my database -- Hassan Whiteside -- has had a higher projected block rate than Bol as a freshman.
6. Tyrese Haliburton
Iowa State
PG
Top 100: NR
Stats: No. 2
Consensus: 2.1 WARP
The season's most surprising statistical standout, Haliburton was a three-star recruit, according to ESPN Recruiting Nation, who immediately became a starter at Big 12 tournament champ Iowa State and has posted a fascinating stat line. Playing largely off the ball and shooting selectively (his usage rate is just 9.3 percent), Haliburton has been uber-efficient, making 68 percent of his 2s and 44 percent of his 3s. Add strong rates of assists, steals and blocks and Haliburton's youth (he didn't turn 19 until February), and you get an elite stats-only projection.
Realistically, Haliburton will almost certainly return to school and will have an opportunity to prove that his efficiency can translate in a larger role with the departures of seniors Marial Shayok and Nick Weiler-Babb.
7. Darius Garland
Vanderbilt
PG
Top 100: 5
Stats: No. 25
Consensus: 2.0 WARP
Since Garland's NCAA career ended after just 139 minutes due to a meniscus tear, it's useful to have EYBL stats to aid in his projection. That shows him as a good but not great prospect. Garland's steal rate was a weakness against EYBL competition.
8. Dedric Lawson
Kansas
F
Top 100: 43
Stats: No. 3
Consensus: 1.9 WARP
After sitting out a year as a transfer from Memphis, Lawson proved that his production could translate against high-major competition. Although his shot-blocking is unlikely to carry over in the NBA, his ability to stretch the floor (37 percent on 3s this season) should allow him to play facing the basket.
9. Talen Horton-Tucker
Iowa State
F
Top 100: 15
Stats: No. 12
Consensus: 1.8 WARP
The more conventional of the Cyclones' productive freshmen, Horton-Tucker is merely a 6-foot-4, 233-pound frontcourt player with perimeter skills. Built somewhat like Houston Rockets forward P.J. Tucker, Horton-Tucker isn't that kind of defender but is capable of creating shots for himself or others.
Horton-Tucker will have to improve his 3-point accuracy (31 percent) to live up to this projection, but time is on his side. Horton-Tucker won't turn 19 until next November, making him the youngest player in the top 100.
10. Shamorie Ponds
St. John's
PG
Top 100: 46
Stats: No. 5
Consensus: 1.8 WARP
Although scouts are skeptical of his size (a listed 6-foot-1) and shoot-first style, Ponds' well-rounded game rates well. He projects in the top 25 percent of NBA-bound point guards in seven of the 10 skill-based categories I assess, tied with Williamson for the most strengths of any collegiate prospect.
11. Jarrett Culver
Texas Tech
G/F
Top 100: 7
Stats: No. 37
Consensus: 1.7 WARP
Culver looks the part of an elite wing prospect but doesn't have the statistical profile of one. His projection isn't bad so much as uninspiring. Culver projects in the top 25 percent of NBA-bound wings in only one category: block rate.
12. Chuma Okeke
Auburn
F
Top 100: 33
Stats: No. 10
Consensus: 1.6 WARP
By contrast to Culver, Okeke is far more productive, particularly at the defensive end of the court, where he rates in the top 25 percent of NBA-bound forwards in both steal and block rates. If Okeke's 38 percent career 3-point shooting translates to the NBA (and his 70 percent accuracy on free throws is a concern there), he figures to develop into a useful starter.
13. Jaxson Hayes
Texas
C
Top 100: 10
Stats: No. 34
Consensus: 1.5 WARP
Hayes' ability to finish above the rim is ideal for a modern NBA non-shooting center. Per Synergy Sports, his 80 percent shooting as a roll man was the best of any Division I player with at least 50 such opportunities. Hayes is also in the nation's top 20 in block rate. However, his pursuit of blocks tends to lead to fouls (5.6 per 40 minutes) and often leaves him out of position on the defensive glass, weaknesses that will limit Hayes' NBA value.
14. De'Andre Hunter
Virginia
SF
Top 100: 6
Stats: No. 60
Consensus: 1.5 WARP
Hunter's statistical projections are relatively weak for a couple of key reasons. First, as a redshirt, he's already 21. Second, the ACC Defensive Player of the Year isn't getting much credit on that end because of his relatively low steal and block rates.
While those can be indicators of an overrated individual defender, they also might reflect the risk-averse style favored by Tony Bennett's pack-line defense. Although Hunter's 46 percent 3-point shooting this season won't likely carry over intact to the NBA, he should still be a valuable 3-and-D contributor.
15. Matisse Thybulle
Washington
G/F
Top 100: 29
Stats: No. 11
Consensus: 1.5 WARP
Arguably the nation's best perimeter defender, Thybulle has been a destructive force as part of the 2-3 zone defense Mike Hopkins brought to the Huskies from his long tenure on Jim Boeheim's coaching staff at Syracuse. Before Thybulle, no prospect in my database had ever been projected for a steal rate of better than three per 100 plays and blocks on better than 2 percent of opponent 2-point attempts.
Given the long track record of Syracuse prospects underperforming their defensive numbers in the zone, it's unlikely that Thybulle will quite live up to that, but his two years playing primarily man-to-man under previous coach Lorenzo Romar suggest that Thybulle can still be a quality defender against either guard spot and most small forwards.
16. Brandon Clarke
Gonzaga
PF
Top 100: 20
Stats: No. 17
Consensus: 1.4 WARP
Only Zion has posted a better box plus-minus rating this season than Clarke, who has dominated in his first season after transferring to Gonzaga from San Jose State.
Like Williamson, Clarke has been a hyper-efficient finisher (71 percent on 2s) and made a big impact at the defensive end (his projected block rate ranks sixth among top-100 players). At a listed 6-foot-8, 215 pounds, Clarke has a very different frame. But he should be able to carve out an NBA role as either a tiny center or a playmaking power forward.
17. John Konchar
Purdue-Fort Wayne
SG
Top 100: 60
Stats: No. 7
Consensus: 1.4 WARP
Givony highlighted Konchar as a sleeper to watch prior to his junior season, and nothing has changed as Konchar wraps up a phenomenal four-year career for the Mastodons. A career 42 percent 3-point shooter, Konchar has made 63 percent of his attempts inside the arc and is a strong playmaker for his size.
18. Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Virginia Tech
PG
Top 100: 18
Stats: No. 18
Consensus: 1.4 WARP
Less heralded as a freshman than his cousin, LA Clippers rookie Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Alexander-Walker has taken a solid step forward as a sophomore. In particular, he has improved his playmaking after playing primarily off the ball as a freshman. A 39 percent career 3-point shooter, Alexander-Walker could end up playing either guard spot in the NBA.
19. Markus Howard
Marquette
PG
Top 100: 84
Stats: No. 8
Consensus: 1.4 WARP
The concern about Howard is as obvious as his listed 5-foot-11 height. Since Isaiah Thomas in 2011, the past four sub-6-footers to be drafted (Kay Felder, Pierre Jackson, Shane Larkin and Tyler Ulis) have been unable to stick in the NBA.
Howard is a supremely skilled shooter (his 91 percent career foul shooting is fifth among players to make at least 300 free throws since 1992-93, per Sports-Reference.com), offering hope that he can carve out a role similar to the one 6-footer Patty Mills has played.
20. Sam Hauser
Marquette
F
Top 100: NR
Stats: No. 9
Consensus: 1.4 WARP
How good a shooter is Hauser? This year's 40 percent accuracy on 3s is down substantially from his 45 percent career mark. At 6-foot-8, Hauser's upside is a career similar to slightly bigger Marquette product Steve Novak. As with Novak, though, the question is whether Hauser will be able to stay on the court defensively.
21. Coby White
North Carolina
PG
Top 100: 16
Stats: No. 24
Consensus: 1.4 WARP
Per Sports-Reference.com, only one freshman -- Williamson -- has been more efficient (in terms of true shooting percentage) than White while using a larger share of his team's plays. Given the track record of one-and-done point guards, it will probably take a while for White to score efficiently in the NBA, but his combination of scoring potential and size is intriguing down the road.
22. Romeo Langford
Indiana
G/F
Top 100: 8
Stats: No. 59
Consensus: 1.4 WARP
The key question for Langford's NBA prospects is whether this season's 27 percent 3-point shooting is fluky. Langford has good form and has shot a more respectable 72 percent from the foul line, offering hope that he can spread the floor as a pro. But he hasn't done much as a freshman to fill out the box score beyond scoring.
23. Nassir Little
North Carolina
SF
Top 100: 11
Stats: No. 47
Consensus: 1.3 WARP
You probably didn't need a statistical projection to know that Little's performance as a freshman has been underwhelming. He has made just 13 3-pointers all season -- a concern as he transitions to the longer NBA line, though his 77 percent foul shooting is encouraging -- and projects in the top 25 percent of NBA-bound small forwards in only one area: 2-point percentage.
24. Dylan Windler
Belmont
SF
Top 100: 34
Stats: No. 15
Consensus: 1.3 WARP
Extra attention on the OVC because of Morant might have helped scouts notice how productive Windler had become. One of the nation's more efficient high scorers, he's a career 67 percent shooter on 2s and 41 percent shooter on 3s, though as my colleague Mike Schmitz has noted, those numbers declined substantially against top competition.
25. Jontay Porter
Missouri
C
Top 100: 22
Stats: No. 23
Consensus: 1.2 WARP
The younger brother of 2018 lottery pick Michael Porter Jr., Jontay had a strong freshman season with Michael mostly sidelined but subsequently suffered his own injury -- a torn ACL during a closed scrimmage against Southern Illinois. When healthy, Porter should be a stretch-5 with excellent passing ability from the perimeter. The question is whether he's athletic enough to hold up defending NBA pick-and-rolls.
26. Kevin Porter Jr.
USC
SF
Top 100: 21
Stats: No. 26
Consensus: 1.2 WARP
Porter presents one of the most extreme contrasts you'll see, between his 3-point shooting as a freshman (41 percent on 68 attempts) and his foul shooting (52 percent on 46 attempts). His true shooting ability probably lies somewhere in between. Porter shot just 32 percent on 151 3-point attempts in the Nike EYBL, but he hit a more credible 66 percent of his 112 free throw attempts.
27. Ty Jerome
Virginia
G
Top 100: 30
Stats: No. 21
Consensus: 1.0 WARP
Jerome's playmaking this season -- 10.7 assists per 100 possessions -- has demonstrated that he can play the point at 6-foot-5, with enough shooting ability (39 percent career from 3) to play off the ball if necessary. Unlike his more heralded teammate Hunter, Jerome has racked up steals at a high rate.
28. Cassius Winston
Michigan State
PG
Top 100: 85
Stats: No. 13
Consensus: 1.0 WARP
The Big Ten Player of the Year has carried a Michigan State team that won the conference tournament Sunday, creating nearly half the Spartans' field goals between his own baskets and assists. As noted earlier, his projected assist rate is tops among top-100 prospects, yet Winston is near the bottom of that list, largely because he's listed at 6-foot-1.
29. Grant Williams
Tennessee
PF
Top 100: 24
Stats: No. 42
Consensus: 1.0 WARP
Williams is the exception to the rule that undersized, highly productive college players usually project better statistically than they do in the eyes of NBA decision-makers. Although Williams' age is a strength (just 20 as a junior, he's younger than eight of the 14 sophomores in the top 100), his below-average efficiency as a sophomore (.544 true shooting percentage) and middling defensive rebound percentage work against his projection.
30. Tre Jones
Duke
PG
Top 100: 27
Stats: No. 39
Consensus: 1.0 WARP
The last of the four Duke freshmen with a chance to go in the first round, Jones figures to struggle with scoring efficiency early in his career. He has made just 25 percent of his 3-point attempts this season and 48 percent of his 2s, though solid foul shooting (78 percent) offers hope for future development from downtown to go with Jones' playmaking and quick hands on D.