Tar Heels and Spartans meet once again
Tar Heels and Spartans meet once again
After the Tar Heels dismantled the Spartans here at Ford Field last December, not many expected Michigan State to get a rematch in tonight's NCAA Championship game. But Tom Izzo's crew has made one helluva' run through the tournament to earn a second chance at Roy Williams and No. 1 seed North Carolina. Just 40 minutes remain in the college hoops season, with tonight's tip slated for 9:21 (ET) on CBS.
What’s the big deal? We’ve seen this game before.
Well, not really. It is true that Monday will be the second time that the Michigan State Spartans (31-6 SU, 21-12-1 ATS, No. 7 Pomeroy) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (33-4 SU, 16-19 ATS, No. 3 Pomeroy) have met at Detroit’s Ford Field this season. But it’s unlikely we’re going to see a repeat of the 98-63 whipping the Tar Heels (-10) put on the Spartans back in December.
North Carolina is definitely still in the driver’s seat according to the betting odds, which at press time had the Tar Heels laying 7.5 points at most books and eight points here and there. But the Heels are facing an MSU team at full capacity on Monday night (9:21 p.m. Eastern, CBS). Center Goran Suton was unavailable for December’s blowout loss after having his right knee scoped; he’s healthy now and playing the best basketball of his college career.
Here’s Suton’s body of work thus far at this year’s Tournament.
Suton only shot the ball five times against the taller Huskies as MSU did much of its offensive damage in transition to advance to the title game. But Suton’s effort on the boards helped Michigan State out-rebound UConn 16-15 on the offensive glass. Coach Tom Izzo told the New York Times that Suton’s rebounding reminded him of Larry Bird, who grabbed 13.3 boards per game during his three years at Indiana State.
While we’re dishing out praise for Suton, we should also point out that Delvon Roe’s freshman season got off to a slow start as he worked his way back to health from surgeries on both his knees. But Roe has already grown into a steady frontline contributor off the bench; his offensive rebound rate (13.2 percent) is identical to Suton’s, and the 6-foot-8 forward corrals 5.1 boards in just 18.0 minutes per game. Roe had eight in 20 minutes against UNC back in December and added three blocks for good measure. What will he do for an encore now that he’s at full speed?
That’s going to depend on what North Carolina allows him to do. The Tar Heels have been absolutely dominant during March Madness. Their slimmest margin of victory was 11 points against a very strong Gonzaga (+7.5) frontcourt in the Sweet 16. Although point guard Ty Lawson is playing on a sore right big toe and missed the first-round game against Radford, he’s shown no ill effects:
Those are Tournament Most Outstanding Player numbers Lawson’s been putting up. And it’s no surprise that Lawson is the runaway favorite at 20-27 on the March Madness props market to win MOP honors. Tyler Hansbrough, the reigning Wooden Award holder and the most publicly known player on the Tar Heels, is next at 21-10 and has enjoyed a strong Tournament in his own right. The top Spartan is point guard Kalin Lucas at 7-1; Suton is 12-1.
You’ll find the Tar Heels attracting chalk all over the props market. For the popular “Who will score the most points?” bet, the top three favorites are all from North Carolina: Hansbrough (5-4), Lawson (3-2) and sharpshooter Wayne Ellington (4-1). Lucas is again the leading MSU player at 11-2 with Suton a relative bargain at 10-1.
These odds point strongly toward a North Carolina victory on Monday night. But how big? The earliest market surveys had about 70 percent of bettors taking UNC against the spread and nearly two-thirds supporting Michigan State at +290 on the moneyline. That big payout could be the best value on the board since the Spartans upset both Louisville and UConn to reach this point.
After the Tar Heels dismantled the Spartans here at Ford Field last December, not many expected Michigan State to get a rematch in tonight's NCAA Championship game. But Tom Izzo's crew has made one helluva' run through the tournament to earn a second chance at Roy Williams and No. 1 seed North Carolina. Just 40 minutes remain in the college hoops season, with tonight's tip slated for 9:21 (ET) on CBS.
What’s the big deal? We’ve seen this game before.
Well, not really. It is true that Monday will be the second time that the Michigan State Spartans (31-6 SU, 21-12-1 ATS, No. 7 Pomeroy) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (33-4 SU, 16-19 ATS, No. 3 Pomeroy) have met at Detroit’s Ford Field this season. But it’s unlikely we’re going to see a repeat of the 98-63 whipping the Tar Heels (-10) put on the Spartans back in December.
North Carolina is definitely still in the driver’s seat according to the betting odds, which at press time had the Tar Heels laying 7.5 points at most books and eight points here and there. But the Heels are facing an MSU team at full capacity on Monday night (9:21 p.m. Eastern, CBS). Center Goran Suton was unavailable for December’s blowout loss after having his right knee scoped; he’s healthy now and playing the best basketball of his college career.
Here’s Suton’s body of work thus far at this year’s Tournament.
- Mar. 20 vs. Robert Morris: 11 points, 17 rebounds
- Mar. 22 vs. USC: seven points, 10 rebounds
- Mar. 27 vs. Kansas: 20 points, nine rebounds, five steals
- Mar. 29 vs. Louisville: 19 points, 10 rebounds
- Apr. 4 vs. UConn: four points, seven rebounds
Suton only shot the ball five times against the taller Huskies as MSU did much of its offensive damage in transition to advance to the title game. But Suton’s effort on the boards helped Michigan State out-rebound UConn 16-15 on the offensive glass. Coach Tom Izzo told the New York Times that Suton’s rebounding reminded him of Larry Bird, who grabbed 13.3 boards per game during his three years at Indiana State.
While we’re dishing out praise for Suton, we should also point out that Delvon Roe’s freshman season got off to a slow start as he worked his way back to health from surgeries on both his knees. But Roe has already grown into a steady frontline contributor off the bench; his offensive rebound rate (13.2 percent) is identical to Suton’s, and the 6-foot-8 forward corrals 5.1 boards in just 18.0 minutes per game. Roe had eight in 20 minutes against UNC back in December and added three blocks for good measure. What will he do for an encore now that he’s at full speed?
That’s going to depend on what North Carolina allows him to do. The Tar Heels have been absolutely dominant during March Madness. Their slimmest margin of victory was 11 points against a very strong Gonzaga (+7.5) frontcourt in the Sweet 16. Although point guard Ty Lawson is playing on a sore right big toe and missed the first-round game against Radford, he’s shown no ill effects:
- Mar. 21 vs. LSU: 23 points, six assists
- Mar. 27 vs. Gonzaga: 19 points, nine assists
- Mar. 29 vs. Oklahoma: 19 points, five assists, three steals
- Apr. 4 vs. Villanova: 22 points, eight assists, seven rebounds
Those are Tournament Most Outstanding Player numbers Lawson’s been putting up. And it’s no surprise that Lawson is the runaway favorite at 20-27 on the March Madness props market to win MOP honors. Tyler Hansbrough, the reigning Wooden Award holder and the most publicly known player on the Tar Heels, is next at 21-10 and has enjoyed a strong Tournament in his own right. The top Spartan is point guard Kalin Lucas at 7-1; Suton is 12-1.
You’ll find the Tar Heels attracting chalk all over the props market. For the popular “Who will score the most points?” bet, the top three favorites are all from North Carolina: Hansbrough (5-4), Lawson (3-2) and sharpshooter Wayne Ellington (4-1). Lucas is again the leading MSU player at 11-2 with Suton a relative bargain at 10-1.
These odds point strongly toward a North Carolina victory on Monday night. But how big? The earliest market surveys had about 70 percent of bettors taking UNC against the spread and nearly two-thirds supporting Michigan State at +290 on the moneyline. That big payout could be the best value on the board since the Spartans upset both Louisville and UConn to reach this point.