Defense wins championships as most sports nut would say. Out of the four teams left, Connecticut holds the edge defensely. They hold their opponents to 37.6% shooting, ranked 2nd in the nation behind only Memphis --and this is against mostly Big East teams, not C-USA teams. That alone should say a lot about how good their defense is. Villanova is ranked 40th, North Carolina 70th, and Michigan State 73rd.
-Villanova held Duke to 26.7% shooting which brought their average way downto 39.1%, this can be attributed to Nova's defense or just Duke's bad shooting. Michigan State held Louisville to 38.1% shooting in their last game which brought their average down considerably, showing that they weren't as tight against Kansas and USC. North Carolina has the highest opponent FG percentage out of the four. But in their last game, although Oklahoma shot 44.4% for the game, UNC held Oklahoma to 31.8% shooting in the first half, by that time UNC had a double digit lead and the game looked out of reach. Nothing major worth noting for Connecticut, as they were consistent and held Texas A&M, Purdue, and Missouri to that avg. of 39.9% shooting.
Based on these stats, Michigan St. has gotten progressively better defensively which goes to show how dangerous they can be the rest of the way. North Carolina showed how well they can defend in the first half against Oklahoma. Villanova and Connecticut are fairly consistent with their defensive effort.
Rebounding. Michigan State and Connecticut are ranked 1st and 3rd respectively in the nation in rebouding margin. Michigan State has a rebounding margin of +9.6. Connecticut with a +9.2 margin, then Carolina at +7 and Villanova at +4.9. Again, you have to take into consideration the competition that these teams faced during the season. Michigan St. outrebounded Big Ten teams for the most part while Connecticut outrebounded Big East teams.
Season stas aside, let's look at the past 3 games of each team's rebounding margin: North Carolina +3.3, Michigan State +4.3, Villanova +9.7, Connecticut +14.7.
Some things to note about those stats: North Carolina was outrebounded by 2 against LSU, even with Oklahoma, and outrebounded Gonzaga by 12. Although Michigan State outrebounded Louisville and USC, Kansas grabbed 4 more boards than the Spartans. Villanova managed to outrebound all of the teams they played, including +2 against Pittsburgh (Pitt is the 2nd best rebounding team in the nation). Connecticut outrebounded Texas A&M, Purdue, and Missouri.
-North Carolina did not need much of an advantage on the boards to win games, as they are great on the offensive end.
-Caveat to the rebounding margin stat: it does not separate offensive and defensive rebounds and the percentages-- which would show how many shots each team took and how many misses there were. But this margin does provide a good stat to measure each team's rebounding ability.
Another stat to add to this analysis is Ken Pomeroy's defensive efficiency. Defensive efficiency is points allowed per 100 defensive possesions. Shooting, rebounding, turnovers, and free throws are the basic components of efficiency. Connecticut is ranked 1st, Michigan State is 2nd, Villanova is 3rd, and North Carolina is 4th. More here http://kenpom.com/stats.php?y=2009&s=12
Now, to put this all together, we can see that Connecticut has been the most consistent defensively all season and into the tournament. They hold their opponents to a low FG% and outrebounding their opponents considerably. When these two stats are put together, Connecticut's opponents are usually "one and done" on the offensive end. If your shots aren't falling, you're bound to have a long night against Connecticut.
Stats aside, we can see that UConn has the most talent in the defensive front. Hasheem Thabeet is defensive player of the year through his shot blocking ability which in turn affects offenses' game plans. Jeff Adrien, Stanley Robinson, and Gavin Edwards all combine for Connecticut to lead the nation in shot blocking once again. The only team to have consistent success against Connecticut is Pittsburgh. Pitt was able to physically impose themselves on UConn.
How to beat UConn (defense centered around shot-blocking): The key really isn't to pull Thabeet to the outside, as their other big men are capable of helping out. The key is to muscle them inside in a way to work the refs to your advantage, this would make their inside defenders timid. This would would also make for more easy scoring opportunities and high percentage shots. If you can do this, the rest of the offense will come. Pittsburgh did this. George Mason also did this in '06 against Armstrong, Boone, and Gay.
There you have it, much easier said than done. That's why I have Connecticut winning it all, despite Michigan State's emergence, Villanova's resilience, and North Carolina's offensive prowess.
Season stats aside, in the last 3 games (2nd round on), Villanova held their opponents to 39.1%, Connecticut 39.9%, Michigan St. 41.3%, and North Carolina 45.4%.
Some things to consider with those numbers:-Villanova held Duke to 26.7% shooting which brought their average way downto 39.1%, this can be attributed to Nova's defense or just Duke's bad shooting. Michigan State held Louisville to 38.1% shooting in their last game which brought their average down considerably, showing that they weren't as tight against Kansas and USC. North Carolina has the highest opponent FG percentage out of the four. But in their last game, although Oklahoma shot 44.4% for the game, UNC held Oklahoma to 31.8% shooting in the first half, by that time UNC had a double digit lead and the game looked out of reach. Nothing major worth noting for Connecticut, as they were consistent and held Texas A&M, Purdue, and Missouri to that avg. of 39.9% shooting.
Based on these stats, Michigan St. has gotten progressively better defensively which goes to show how dangerous they can be the rest of the way. North Carolina showed how well they can defend in the first half against Oklahoma. Villanova and Connecticut are fairly consistent with their defensive effort.
Rebounding. Michigan State and Connecticut are ranked 1st and 3rd respectively in the nation in rebouding margin. Michigan State has a rebounding margin of +9.6. Connecticut with a +9.2 margin, then Carolina at +7 and Villanova at +4.9. Again, you have to take into consideration the competition that these teams faced during the season. Michigan St. outrebounded Big Ten teams for the most part while Connecticut outrebounded Big East teams.
Season stas aside, let's look at the past 3 games of each team's rebounding margin: North Carolina +3.3, Michigan State +4.3, Villanova +9.7, Connecticut +14.7.
Some things to note about those stats: North Carolina was outrebounded by 2 against LSU, even with Oklahoma, and outrebounded Gonzaga by 12. Although Michigan State outrebounded Louisville and USC, Kansas grabbed 4 more boards than the Spartans. Villanova managed to outrebound all of the teams they played, including +2 against Pittsburgh (Pitt is the 2nd best rebounding team in the nation). Connecticut outrebounded Texas A&M, Purdue, and Missouri.
-North Carolina did not need much of an advantage on the boards to win games, as they are great on the offensive end.
-Caveat to the rebounding margin stat: it does not separate offensive and defensive rebounds and the percentages-- which would show how many shots each team took and how many misses there were. But this margin does provide a good stat to measure each team's rebounding ability.
Another stat to add to this analysis is Ken Pomeroy's defensive efficiency. Defensive efficiency is points allowed per 100 defensive possesions. Shooting, rebounding, turnovers, and free throws are the basic components of efficiency. Connecticut is ranked 1st, Michigan State is 2nd, Villanova is 3rd, and North Carolina is 4th. More here http://kenpom.com/stats.php?y=2009&s=12
Now, to put this all together, we can see that Connecticut has been the most consistent defensively all season and into the tournament. They hold their opponents to a low FG% and outrebounding their opponents considerably. When these two stats are put together, Connecticut's opponents are usually "one and done" on the offensive end. If your shots aren't falling, you're bound to have a long night against Connecticut.
Stats aside, we can see that UConn has the most talent in the defensive front. Hasheem Thabeet is defensive player of the year through his shot blocking ability which in turn affects offenses' game plans. Jeff Adrien, Stanley Robinson, and Gavin Edwards all combine for Connecticut to lead the nation in shot blocking once again. The only team to have consistent success against Connecticut is Pittsburgh. Pitt was able to physically impose themselves on UConn.
How to beat UConn (defense centered around shot-blocking): The key really isn't to pull Thabeet to the outside, as their other big men are capable of helping out. The key is to muscle them inside in a way to work the refs to your advantage, this would make their inside defenders timid. This would would also make for more easy scoring opportunities and high percentage shots. If you can do this, the rest of the offense will come. Pittsburgh did this. George Mason also did this in '06 against Armstrong, Boone, and Gay.
There you have it, much easier said than done. That's why I have Connecticut winning it all, despite Michigan State's emergence, Villanova's resilience, and North Carolina's offensive prowess.