12/30 ncaa hoops

2daBank · 12-30-14, 02:34 AM

gonna be interested in the 1st half/gm under in nw/rutgers gm, have always loved playing early start 1st half unders and got a nice matchup here to get a real stinker

2daBank · 12-30-14, 03:09 AM

wtf to make of iowa/osu? outside of iowa beating unc (who did beat osu on a neutral but we all know is schizo) neither team has beaten anyone and both have feasted on soft ass schedules.. wanna say i lean osu but laying 8.5-9 doesnt seem all that appealing, just not a iowa believer at all. not that im 100% sold on osu either just think there more potential with that squad..

chalk46 · 12-30-14, 03:52 AM

I like Maryland and lean VMI.

KRIT · 12-30-14, 03:59 AM

Very surprised to see Sparty a 6.5 fave. I figured MSU would be favored by was thinking closer to the -4/-4.5 range. Shows how much I know.

Why are there early games tomorrow? I lean Illini and NCST in the early games. Probably will pass on the Iowa/OSU game.

2daBank · 12-30-14, 04:16 AM

cant believe how little respect maryland continues to get from oddsmakers..not sure im thrilled with them opening their inaugural b1g season at east lancing but lets be real these guys were playing at cameron and the likes last season so it not like they stepping into a more hostile venue here..

i really like this team and think wells being out for some time was really good for them as it gave the freshman time to grow. now wells is back and this a team to be reckon with. they are long across the board, have tremendous skill on the offensive end, lot of youth but have some key upperclassmen, and at times flash a solid defense that has room to improve that they execute w/o fouling..

sure it a tough spot for their 1st b1g gm but couldnt have picked a better year to have it happen as this has to be one of the crappier teams izzo has fielded in some time. not that they are bad just comparative to his other squads i dont think this one is close. they have yet to beat a quality team unless you wanna count Marquette, just lost at home to tex southern, they dont get to the charity stripe often and are terrible at converting the freebees when they do get there..

on the other hand terps have been taking it to the quality teams they have faced including recently spanking okie st in their gym in what was another ridiculously disrespectful line , held a very good isu offense to 63 on a neutral court that had very strong isu support, their 1 loss being to uva who is one of the better teams in the country and they played with them imo, they just couldnt overcome the early lead uva jumped out to in a gm i thought wells toughness would have made a difference..

maybe im way off here and god knows just a few short years ago i would never consider playing these ranked road dogs but that angle has since went out the window in a big way, whether that continues is yet to be seen.. so the play:

maryland+6.5 (half now, gonna wait and see if line actually goes up for rest. i dont think it will but woulda never guessed how it shot up in okie lite gm)

2daBank · 12-30-14, 04:17 AM

Originally posted by chalk46

I like Maryland and lean VMI.

Originally posted by KRIT

Very surprised to see Sparty a 6.5 fave. I figured MSU would be favored by was thinking closer to the -4/-4.5 range. Shows how much I know.

Why are there early games tomorrow? I lean Illini and NCST in the early games. Probably will pass on the Iowa/OSU game.

i was busy writing it up as you guys were saying same thing, lol.. i think it just a holiday week type thing, kids arnt in class, so on and so forth..

2daBank · 12-30-14, 04:36 AM

Originally posted by KRIT

Very surprised to see Sparty a 6.5 fave. I figured MSU would be favored by was thinking closer to the -4/-4.5 range. Shows how much I know.

Why are there early games tomorrow? I lean Illini and NCST in the early games. Probably will pass on the Iowa/OSU game.

i dunno what to make of the cincy/ncst gm,, i spent a couple minutes on it and couldnt really come up with a play i felt good about and moved on. lean same way as you slightly, mostly cause cincy's offense is awful. i just couldnt find a team on ncst schedule that could give me some kind of idea how they will handle the kind of defensive pressure that cincy will apply.. of coarse if ya go back to last season cincy held them to 57 and they also struggled to score on other similarly tenacious defenses. i think cincy has taken a step back this yr but the defense is still pretty similar.. could be interested in a under in that one depending where they open it..

chalk46 · 12-30-14, 04:58 AM

Not seen Kent State this year but I would expect Kansas to bounce back at home. 16 is a lot but maybe not in this one.

KRIT · 12-30-14, 04:59 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

i dunno what to make of the cincy/ncst gm,, i spent a couple minutes on it and couldnt really come up with a play i felt good about and moved on. lean same way as you slightly, mostly cause cincy's offense is awful. i just couldnt find a team on ncst schedule that could give me some kind of idea how they will handle the kind of defensive pressure that cincy will apply.. of coarse if ya go back to last season cincy held them to 57 and they also struggled to score on other similarly tenacious defenses. i think cincy has taken a step back this yr but the defense is still pretty similar.. could be interested in a under in that one depending where they open it..

Two very contrasting styles. I think at home NCST will score, not sure I can say the same about Cincy.

2daBank · 12-30-14, 05:08 AM

Originally posted by KRIT

Two very contrasting styles. I think at home NCST will score, not sure I can say the same about Cincy.

cincy never scores. i tried to look at other similarly tough defenses that ncst played at home last season and all i saw was 62 vs pit and 45 vs uva, not trying to say cincy can do what uva does to teams tho.. wofford held them to 54 at home this season.. i wouldnt count on ncst scoring a ton. very low 60s id think, which could very well be enough to cover, hell in 2 ots cincy only managed 55 at neb in their only road tilt thus far, neb defense is better than ncst tho. would love to see the total in the mid 120s..

2daBank · 12-30-14, 05:12 AM

umas has been a major disappointment imo but iona might just bring the kind of gm that helps get them going.. still hard to lay points with umas as bad as they have looked. would like to get a total in that 1, not sure they can set it high enough!

2daBank · 12-30-14, 05:16 AM

Originally posted by chalk46

Not seen Kent State this year but I would expect Kansas to bounce back at home. 16 is a lot but maybe not in this one.

they have played such a soft schedule it hard to say. they did just hang with a pretty solid utep club and they have a couple guys that can stroke the trey.. i dunno, getting up there where i dont feel comfortable laying that number. ask tham when he around he does pretty well with those bigger spreads.. im so pissed off at ku at the moment, that was a total no show to get waxed by a mediocre temple team..

2daBank · 12-30-14, 05:26 AM

can dayton continue to overcome everyone over 6'6 being kicked off the team? the formula to overcome the rebounding discrepancy against gtech was killing them at the line and winning the turnover battle. they should be able to do the same vs ole piss i would think, at some point getting smoked on the boards gonna catch up to them tho..

THam12 · 12-30-14, 07:02 AM

NW -Rutgers 1H under is one i like as well... early start and both teams average about 18 secs per possession on offense and defense.

18 secs would give them about 60 possessions in 1st half. Say that shoot 40% (easily could happen early in day, 1st half of 1st conference game).. thats 24 possessions they score on. Both teams average around 52% of scoring on 2 pters.
Thats 12.48 possessions of 2s... 24.96 pts.
Avg about 27% of their scoring on 3s. So 6.48 possessions of 3s... 19.48 pts.
That leaves 21% FTS... 5.04 possessions... 10 pts?
So thats around 55 pts...

Not factoring in defense which neither team allows a super high % shooting of eitger FTs or 2s. With both defenses in top 100 in 2p% allowed and block%. Rutgers is top 100 in 3p% allowed.
NW is bottom of country in 3p% allowed but that shouldnt hurt them as rutgers cant shoot 3s... 30% from there.. 281st in country...

So basically anything around 60.. im hitting the under.

All stats courtesy of kenpom.

GT21Megatron · 12-30-14, 07:09 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

can dayton continue to overcome everyone over 6'6 being kicked off the team? the formula to overcome the rebounding discrepancy against gtech was killing them at the line and winning the turnover battle. they should be able to do the same vs ole piss i would think, at some point getting smoked on the boards gonna catch up to them tho..

Dayton is more dangerous with that small lineup because of the way they stretch the defense. It hurts more on the other ened from what I saw I the GT game

2daBank · 12-30-14, 07:11 AM

nice of you to show the work,, prob helpful for some.. i think you being very optimistic hoping for a 60 buddy,, prob was closer to the 55 you have.. maybe 57ish if we lucky..

GT21Megatron · 12-30-14, 07:12 AM

I think Davidson is getting to many and will be playing them @ UVA....I really like WVU against VT and been high on Illinois all year although have yet to produce...Will be playing them

Davidson +17
Illinois +2
WVU -16

THam12 · 12-30-14, 07:15 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

nice of you to show the work,, prob helpful for some.. i think you being very optimistic hoping for a 60 buddy,, prob was closer to the 55 you have.. maybe 57ish if we lucky..

I think ill take anything around 57 too

THam12 · 12-30-14, 07:16 AM

ILL have been terrivle ATS... as a fan i have noticed they fail to cover alot. Eventhough i think we win SU today (duh)

2daBank · 12-30-14, 07:17 AM

Originally posted by GT21Megatron

Dayton is more dangerous with that small lineup because of the way they stretch the defense. It hurts more on the other ened from what I saw I the GT game

yea that what im saying, it hurts them badly trying to clean up their defensive glass. tech rebounded 38% of their misses in that gm and got some decent looks around the rim.. over might be worth a look as ole piss gets off pretty quick, does a good job on the offensive glass. and fouls quite a bit..

2daBank · 12-30-14, 07:18 AM

Originally posted by THam12

I think ill take anything around 57 too

yea that about my breaking point, anything lower i dunno..

2daBank · 12-30-14, 07:24 AM

Originally posted by THam12

ILL have been terrivle ATS... as a fan i have noticed they fail to cover alot. Eventhough i think we win SU today (duh)

mizzou was the 1st illini gm ive gotten right since baylor, that line was kinda retarded even tho mizzou is bad ya knew that would be close.. obviously i think they win today, i dont play many lines lower than 7 unless i think the dog has a reasonable shot.. i still have a really hard time figuring out which illini team shows up most days, today im counting on mich terrible defense making it impossible for bad illini to show up..

THam12 · 12-30-14, 07:27 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

mizzou was the 1st illini gm ive gotten right since baylor, that line was kinda retarded even tho mizzou is bad ya knew that would be close.. obviously i think they win today, i dont play many lines lower than 7 unless i think the dog has a reasonable shot.. i still have a really hard time figuring out which illini team shows up most days, today im counting on mich terrible defense making it impossible for bad illini to show up..

If ILL shoots well, they beat damn near anyone... they have so many capable shooters, if they put it all together people are in trouble. But itll be hard to know when it happens..
i will say i think best player on the floor will be ray rice today. And its not even close.

2daBank · 12-30-14, 07:31 AM

their offense just gets so stagnant at times, nobodies moving and all a sudden it the end of shot clock and somebody going 1 on 1.. when they space the floor and move it around they look good..

2daBank · 12-30-14, 07:36 AM

terrible spot for lbst today.. always like this team but they always bury themselves with this scheduling. 6th freaking road gm in a row and they have looked more run down every gm since the tex gm and that was like gm 3. ville off the uk loss prob looking for someone to take it out on and they get a wore down lbst team that turns it over a lot and is bad on the boards. smells like a potential ass whipping there.. should be right up your ally hammer..

THam12 · 12-30-14, 07:36 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

their offense just gets so stagnant at times, nobodies moving and all a sudden it the end of shot clock and somebody going 1 on 1.. when they space the floor and move it around they look good..

Youre preaching to the choir... its been that way for a while. I think iits illini or paas. Teams who have beaten us have done it inside.... michigan doesnt have that scary presence inside so Egwu should be ok.
Ill take our guards and wings against theirs anyday.

THam12 · 12-30-14, 07:37 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

terrible spot for lbst today.. always like this team but they always bury themselves with this scheduling. 6th freaking road gm in a row and they have looked more run down every gm since the tex gm and that was like gm 3. ville of the uk loss prob looking for someone to take it out on and they get a wore down lbst team that turns it over a lot and is bad on the boards. smells like a potential ass whipping there.. should be right up your ally hammer..

Haha thanks for pointing it out!!! I faded lb state last game as well. Same shit different day. Lville should cause them hell on defensive end

2daBank · 12-30-14, 07:42 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

terrible spot for lbst today.. always like this team but they always bury themselves with this scheduling. 6th freaking road gm in a row and they have looked more run down every gm since the tex gm and that was like gm 3. ville off the uk loss prob looking for someone to take it out on and they get a wore down lbst team that turns it over a lot and is bad on the boards. smells like a potential ass whipping there.. should be right up your ally hammer..

im terrible at these big spreads but i absolutely think ville is the side, hopefully tham agrees cause im calling it a ham-bone special! lol

ville-18

2daBank · 12-30-14, 07:48 AM

Originally posted by THam12

Youre preaching to the choir... its been that way for a while. I think iits illini or paas. Teams who have beaten us have done it inside.... michigan doesnt have that scary presence inside so Egwu should be ok.
Ill take our guards and wings against theirs anyday.

i decided after the tech institute beat michshitgan anytime i can get points or even a reasonable line against these scrubs im taking them. worked out well against zona even tho had to lay some wood there. then they came home and for some reason were favs over smu and not like smu much higher on my trust list than illini and played them,. was really surprised mich were favs again here (i made it a pk), so long as they getting undeserved respect or until they prove me wrong im fading them..

THam12 · 12-30-14, 07:51 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

im terrible at these big spreads but i absolutely think ville is the side, hopefully tham agrees cause im calling it a ham-bone special! lol

ville-18

Hahaha i think based on spot alone its a good play. Watched lb state against cuse and they seemed to tire out big time at the end.... now they go in to the ville.. theres a reason vegas set this line where it is.. tham bone special

THam12 · 12-30-14, 07:52 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

i decided after the tech institute beat michshitgan anytime i can get points or even a reasonable line against these scrubs im taking them. worked out well against zona even tho had to lay some wood there. then they came home and for some reason were favs over smu and not like smu much higher on my trust list than illini and played them,. was really surprised mich were favs again here (i made it a pk), so long as they getting undeserved respect or until they prove me wrong im fading them..

Yes sir.. i dont think its even that mich is struggling. Thwy just arent very good. And i think coach beilein wouls agree.

THam12 · 12-30-14, 07:53 AM

Maryland getting pts... i have been super impressed with this team. Dez wells is back... mich state struggling to find leadership... TONS of weapons on maryland.

2daBank · 12-30-14, 07:54 AM

if anyone actually having success with these fukkin bowl gms has any suggestions on todays bowls im all ears. you better be confident tho cause im warning ya, not only do i suck at betting these pre new years bowls ive already tried tailing 2 separate guys who were on fire and i managed to send their bowl seasons into the toilet.. so not only can i not pick them to save my life but im mushing anyone brave enough to give me a play

maybe ill look for a prop or 2. did hit my only prop play of bowl season yesterday! time for new strategy..

2daBank · 12-30-14, 07:56 AM

Originally posted by THam12

Hahaha i think based on spot alone its a good play. Watched lb state against cuse and they seemed to tire out big time at the end.... now they go in to the ville.. theres a reason vegas set this line where it is.. tham bone special

6th roadie in a row is nuts, and as if that aint bad enough it been a global tour! surprised they didnt throw in a gm in china for good measure..