Around this time of year, I like to make a solid amount of my plays just based solely on the movement of betting %. I no longer (not very often anyhow) make selections blindly based on contrarian betting. I used to be plagued by just making selections because only 12% of bettors were backing a team.
Before conference play (or at least before there is a solid 3-4 weeks of trending stats to base picks on) I like to find where the money is being put close to tip off and make selections based off of that. I do notice that large large changes (ex. 25% are on UConn...10 min later 40% on UConn) means that you should go the other way. (Don't bet on UConn in that situation...almost guaranteed you'll lose)...I have a knack for knowing when the books are fooling you with their "percentages"...
Anyone else play these mind games successfully? Feel free to share your perspectives or criticize...
Before conference play (or at least before there is a solid 3-4 weeks of trending stats to base picks on) I like to find where the money is being put close to tip off and make selections based off of that. I do notice that large large changes (ex. 25% are on UConn...10 min later 40% on UConn) means that you should go the other way. (Don't bet on UConn in that situation...almost guaranteed you'll lose)...I have a knack for knowing when the books are fooling you with their "percentages"...
Anyone else play these mind games successfully? Feel free to share your perspectives or criticize...