Friday Sweet Sixteen plays

[robbeduagain]

3-1 last night makes my tournament record 20-13-1. Here are tonight's plays:

Michigan -1.5 Made this bet Monday. It's at -3 now. I really like Michigan here. I know Tennessee is hot, but they have been playing on a free roll lately. They were happy to get in the tournament and haven't played a good team yet. Michigan is well coached and very good, and their strength is a weakness for the Vols. Tenn. is a great defensive team, but is only average at defending the 3 pt arc (33%). That won't cut it against a team that can shoot like the Wolverines can. I look for Michigan to play more 1-3-1 in this game to exploit the poor perimeter shooting of the Vols, and to spread the floor offensively to take advantage of Tennessee's aggressive nature on D. G RobIII has playing very well and will make really tough to guard him, LeVert, and Stauskas (all who are 6'6"). I would feel comfortable playing this at -3, but am very happy to have it -1.5. Big Ten champs roll

Mich/Tenn over 134 Haven't been great at totals, but I like this one. Michigan's ability to shoot the 3 combined with Tennessee's relative inability to defend it makes this a play for me. Combine that with the Vols ability to convert turnovers into points and I feel like this game will go over 140.

Iowa State -1.5 I thought going into the tournament that Iowa State had a chance to make a deep run and possibly win it all. Niang's injury changed my thinking, but I do have the Cyclones winning the East Region (+550).
I know Napier is playing in NYC and he's good, but I think Kane can match his big plays and I like the Cyclones supporting cast much better. ISU plays with great poise, no doubt influenced by Hoiberg (vastly underrated as a coach) and have very consistent all year. The Cyclones have proven that you can never count themout of a game. UConn, on the other hand, has been inconsistent all year and is not a team equipped to come from behind. I like the Cyclones here.

GL to everyone

[2daBank]

I think vols perimeter defense is better than u giving them credit for, they have length out there that can bother shooters and while yes on the year their 3 point percentage against wasn't great the last 10 they have held opponents to only 26% from behind the arc.. I think they will run mich off the line all night and force them to beat them off the bounce which won't be easy w those 2 studs anchoring the inside..really like vols and lean under although I doubt I play it, if wolverines are firing jumpers and not connecting it gonna lead to easy buckets for the vols..guess I just prefer the stronger defensive team that has the ability to score inside vs a mich team that plays soft defense and lives off jumpers..

At least one of us will cash! Like your isu play... Gl tonight

[robbeduagain]

I think vols perimeter defense is better than u giving them credit for, they have length out there that can bother shooters and while yes on the year their 3 point percentage against wasn't great the last 10 they have held opponents to only 26% from behind the arc.. I think they will run mich off the line all night and force them to beat them off the bounce which won't be easy w those 2 studs anchoring the inside..really like vols and lean under although I doubt I play it, if wolverines are firing jumpers and not connecting it gonna lead to easy buckets for the vols..guess I just prefer the stronger defensive team that has the ability to score inside vs a mich team that plays soft defense and lives off jumpers..

At least one of us will cash! Like your isu play... Gl tonight

I see your points, they are valid. I think that % in the last ten is mis leading, given the Vandy, Mizzu, and Auburn games we all played at Tenn and none of those teams performs well on the road. Both Florida and Mercer shot at least 36%. I think Michigan will use the back cut early to set up their perimeter game. Beilein was a master at that at WV. I also think the D (especially the 1-3-1 zone) will prove to be effective, making the Vols shoot jumpshots, which they are not good at doing (32% from the 3pt line). A lot of people on here said Wisconsin couldn't play D, and last night they didn't too bad. You are right, one of us will win some money. Maybe both, as took Michigan at 1.5 on Monday. Maybe we can both win!

[2daBank]

I see your points, they are valid. I think Michigan will use the back cut early to set up their perimeter game. Beilein was a master at that at WV. I also think the D (especially the 1-3-1 zone) will prove to be effective, making the Vols shoot jumpshots, which they are not good at doing (32% from the 3pt line). A lot of people on here said Wisconsin couldn't play D, and last night they didn't too bad. You are right, one of us will win some money. Maybe both, as took Michigan at 1.5 on Monday. Maybe we can both win!

Na we both can't win as most likely I'll be playing the ml. Lol

I wasn't 1 of the ppl saying wiscy couldn't play d, although I don't think their d is great so much as Baylor doesn't have the kind of players to bother them, wiscy weakness is defending guys that can take it to the rack and Baylor doesn't have much of that ( was also really impressive way they slowed down Oregon in the 2nd half)..Good call by u in that gm, I had no interest betting it but seemed like most around here liked Baylor..

Beilien is a really good coach no doubt and I def agree they gonna try and force vols into jumpers, of late their gaurds have shot better but again I agree w u that is their weakness. Thing about zones tho is it makes rebounding more difficult so I expect stokes and maymon to clean up a lot of misses , maybe even more importantly if wolverines are missing jumpers they won't always have a chance to set up that zone as it will lead to run outs.. That where I think the difference is in this gm, vols ability to get some easy scores in transition and on the offensive glass in a gm I think is gonna be very grind it out in nature.. Makes sense u like the over as I think if this gm played in the 70s it def advantage michigan, i expect the pace to be slow and buckets tough to come by which obviously favors vols if we talking bout a gm played in the mid 60s.. I'm wrong a lot tho (lol), should be a good gm, better than yesterday's gms where the outcomes were rarely in question..

Either way gl, u a much better addition to the board than most these newer cats that rather thump their chest and act like they special rather than actually discussing the games..

Curious what u think of the isu/ucon total or where u have the score of that one? I lean ur way w isu but think over might be better cause think it gonna take 80 to win that gm..,

[No coincidences]

Na we both can't win as most likely I'll be playing the ml. Lol

I wasn't 1 of the ppl saying wiscy couldn't play d, although I don't think their d is great so much as Baylor doesn't have the kind of players to bother them, wiscy weakness is defending guys that can take it to the rack and Baylor doesn't have much of that ( was also really impressive way they slowed down Oregon in the 2nd half)..Good call by u in that gm, I had no interest betting it but seemed like most around here liked Baylor..

Beilien is a really good coach no doubt and I def agree they gonna try and force vols into jumpers, of late their gaurds have shot better but again I agree w u that is their weakness. Thing about zones tho is it makes rebounding more difficult so I expect stokes and maymon to clean up a lot of misses , maybe even more importantly if wolverines are missing jumpers they won't always have a chance to set up that zone as it will lead to run outs.. That where I think the difference is in this gm, vols ability to get some easy scores in transition and on the offensive glass in a gm I think is gonna be very grind it out in nature.. Makes sense u like the over as I think if this gm played in the 70s it def advantage michigan, i expect the pace to be slow and buckets tough to come by which obviously favors vols if we talking bout a gm played in the mid 60s.. I'm wrong a lot tho (lol), should be a good gm, better than yesterday's gms where the outcomes were rarely in question..

Either way gl, u a much better addition to the board than most these newer cats that rather thump their chest and act like they special rather than actually discussing the games..

Curious what u think of the isu/ucon total or where u have the score of that one? I lean ur way w isu but think over might be better cause think it gonna take 80 to win that gm..,

I personally think the under is a great play in the UT/UM game, but I'm a totals moron. Just can't bet a side. Lean Vols because I think Stokes is a big problem, but I already bet against a vastly superior coach once last night (taking Baylor) and I'm not about to do it again.

[THam12]

This is what this forum is all about.

Good posting by all.

Good luck guys.

[2daBank]

I personally think the under is a great play in the UT/UM game, but I'm a totals moron. Just can't bet a side. Lean Vols because I think Stokes is a big problem, but I already bet against a vastly superior coach once last night (taking Baylor) and I'm not about to do it again.

I def lean under... Wouldn't have gave it much thought at open(131) but now that it up to 135 and looking to climb more def see some value.. Both teams play at a really slow pace so they gonna have to shoot lights out to get over this number I would think, just don't see that happening.. Sure Beillein a really good coach but don't think it fair to throw Martin in w the likes of Baylors moron coach, I never had much trust in Baylor as taking them to get past creighton was simply fading creighton. Surprised you took them vs wiscy. That was classic smart vs perenerially stupid. Not fair to compare this gm w that IMO..

[robbeduagain]

Na we both can't win as most likely I'll be playing the ml. Lol

I wasn't 1 of the ppl saying wiscy couldn't play d, although I don't think their d is great so much as Baylor doesn't have the kind of players to bother them, wiscy weakness is defending guys that can take it to the rack and Baylor doesn't have much of that ( was also really impressive way they slowed down Oregon in the 2nd half)..Good call by u in that gm, I had no interest betting it but seemed like most around here liked Baylor..

Beilien is a really good coach no doubt and I def agree they gonna try and force vols into jumpers, of late their gaurds have shot better but again I agree w u that is their weakness. Thing about zones tho is it makes rebounding more difficult so I expect stokes and maymon to clean up a lot of misses , maybe even more importantly if wolverines are missing jumpers they won't always have a chance to set up that zone as it will lead to run outs.. That where I think the difference is in this gm, vols ability to get some easy scores in transition and on the offensive glass in a gm I think is gonna be very grind it out in nature.. Makes sense u like the over as I think if this gm played in the 70s it def advantage michigan, i expect the pace to be slow and buckets tough to come by which obviously favors vols if we talking bout a gm played in the mid 60s.. I'm wrong a lot tho (lol), should be a good gm, better than yesterday's gms where the outcomes were rarely in question..

Either way gl, u a much better addition to the board than most these newer cats that rather thump their chest and act like they special rather than actually discussing the games..

Curious what u think of the isu/ucon total or where u have the score of that one? I lean ur way w isu but think over might be better cause think it gonna take 80 to win that gm..,

Appreciate the kind words. I love to breakdown and discuss these games as I am a HS basketball coach. I would lean to the over in this one, but I worry about UConn's inconsistent play on offense. They are very perimeter oriented pretty much play as those guys play. I also question whether they can defend the 3 pt line. They let "Nova get 31 3' off. A race to 80 definitely favors ISU, but 147 is lot to score in a game of this importance. I won't play it, but if I had to I would take the over

[thekoreanmang]

Great writeup. some good insights for sure.

[robbeduagain]

I personally think the under is a great play in the UT/UM game, but I'm a totals moron. Just can't bet a side. Lean Vols because I think Stokes is a big problem, but I already bet against a vastly superior coach once last night (taking Baylor) and I'm not about to do it again.

LOL You can't be any worse than me on totals. The only reason I like the over here is that I think G RobIII is starting to play well, and that will further stretch the Vols D on the perimeter. I will probably regret it in the end as Tenn. has really played some lock down D lately.

[Capper1124]

GL to you tonight

[robbeduagain]

Adding one:

Mich. St/Virginia over 128 This sets up to be a defensive battle between 2 very physical teams. I'm taking the over because of the familiarity that Izzo has of playing against Virginia's style of D, having coached against Tony Bennett's father Dick who coached at Wisconsin. Michigan State has been starting games very well and it could help to get the pace going in MSU's favor. Virginia can play quick if they want, and especially on neutral floors, can put up some points. GL

[robbeduagain]

Adding one more:

Louisville/Kentucky under 139 Louisville is playing much better now and plays a style much Florida (for obvious reasons), which has given UK trouble this year. Kentucky is playing closer to it's potential, but is still a young team prone to mental lapses. I lean toward Louisville to win the game, but I believe it will be played at a slower pace. Louisville will press to take time off the shot clock and drop back into their zone. They will cover Jones and I don't think the twins shoot as well as they last week. They haven't been consistent all year, no reason to think they will now. Kentucky's length hurt Smith last time and it will probably do so again. This will be a really entertaining, but ugly game. GL

[2daBank]

That uk/ville under makes sense. Gun to head I'd play under as well.

[No coincidences]

I def lean under... Wouldn't have gave it much thought at open(131) but now that it up to 135 and looking to climb more def see some value.. Both teams play at a really slow pace so they gonna have to shoot lights out to get over this number I would think, just don't see that happening.. Sure Beillein a really good coach but don't think it fair to throw Martin in w the likes of Baylors moron coach, I never had much trust in Baylor as taking them to get past creighton was simply fading creighton. Surprised you took them vs wiscy. That was classic smart vs perenerially stupid. Not fair to compare this gm w that IMO..

I took them because this Wisconsin team isn't very good, completely unathletic, horrible against the pick and roll, etc. You'd figure Drew would be able to exploit some of those weaknesses given the NBA bodies on his team. Guess not. He truly is one of the worst coaches in the country, and last night validated that.

[2daBank]

I took them because this Wisconsin team isn't very good, completely unathletic, horrible against the pick and roll, etc. You'd figure Drew would be able to exploit some of those weaknesses given the NBA bodies on his team. Guess not. He truly is one of the worst coaches in the country, and last night validated that.

Yea he awful. Team never lives up to its talent level..biggest reason I passed on the gm.

[robbeduagain]

2-3 for the night. Not a good finish after getting the first game pretty right. 22-16-1 for the tournament. Oh well there's always tomorrow (at least for a while)

[RollinDo]

I'm staying away from Over/Unders...Can't seem to get any right. If Louisville had won, probably would have hit, but giving up that many to Kentucky is inexcusable.

[robbeduagain]

No doubt the defense had some breakdowns last night. As I said earlier in this thread, I haven't done well with totals.