Breaking Book!

[2daBank]

that was me that made that argument about cherry picking trends….but really that pitt game came down to pitt covering with VA missing a FT; however VA shouldn't have ever been in that position to shoot ft. Pitt should have covered 11pts…va backers at 11 were given a gift at a push.

but back to the point, i'm roaming his site now. looks like i'm going to have something to do for the next few days.

dude if you like numbers and figuring out ways to use them creatively you could be on there for a month the 1st time! i have several friends that basically just use whatever they like to put into their models, not my style cause 1st off im computer illiterate, secondly i have a approach ive worked on forever that works really well for me.. take me longer than them tho, lol.

[LakeShow]

im not much of a trend guy at all, i know several guys that like trends and situational capping, occasionally ill jump on board or at least take into consideration but i prefer breaking down individual matchups along with using certain adjusted tempo and efficiency numbers to get a idea how many possessions i can expect and that gives me my initial line i start working off.. sure you can use stats to back up both sides of a spread, there was a decent argument for both sides of butler and creighton i thought which was why i passed. the whole trick is finding a method of your own to be able to weight what numbers you feel are gonna be most important in each individual gm. or something like that.

I'm not one to look at trends myself either. I was merely responding to trobin31's argument for va covering because of a trend. and i feel that you can choose a trend to support both teams in virtually every game. so i think reading into trends just helps an individual feel better about their pick.

[2daBank]

I'm not one to look at trends myself either. I was merely responding to trobin31's argument for va covering because of a trend. and i feel that you can choose a trend to support both teams in virtually every game. so i think reading into trends just helps an individual feel better about their pick.

occasionally you come across something and you can ride that bitch till the wheels fall off,, they dont come around real often where i spot them early and can take advantage. ive had a few with my baseball cardinals over the years. for few years i was doing really well betting the nfl thu night gm 1st half under, that finally kinda fell apart last year tho. nice when you can find something like that and have you a bet ya dont have to even think about that hitting at nice clip!

[LakeShow]

West VA pulls out the upset victory!

3-0 for the day!! glad i pressed the wva for 3 units. hoped everyones week started as great as mine is right now.


record is 34-13 72.3%

i understand this run rate isn't sustainable over the long run..but its always nice to think "what if"

[2daBank]

oh wow man, you rolling. didnt realize you were on that kind of roll. nice.. not sustainable like over time but ive had stretches with ncaa hoops where i went 18 days in a row up units. this the best time of the year. now thru the conf tourneys there nothing better. dont get me wrong the dance is awesome but i usually cut back my unit size as i typically taper off a little. i know bracket buster gms bout here, luv that shit, then the conf tourneys like a wet dream, so many nice dog mls when you got one team playing to stay alive and another that already knows they getting in..

[LakeShow]

i already played pit. think that number drops a point or 2 before all said and done. they gonna be the popular side among some sharps and squares alike i would think (im no line expert tho so not like i could end up with a shit number and starring at +14 2marro, seems unlikely tho).. pit been playing like they still wanna make the tourney of late, their out of conf aint doing them any favors and this really last team they play that would stand out in eyes of committee.. ive always said playing a team that needs the W is a horrible strategy this time of year cause after all there a reason they in this spot and they typically show why. this a little different case tho, pit is actually peaking, uva still adjusting to life w/o one of their most important players, pit managed to play a couple tight ugly gms vs uva last season, and this just a shitload of points with all those things in pitts favor. ive played against uva both gms since anderson went down, basically because i think it still a unknown what this team is w/o anderson and the line hanst properly adjusted to the impact of him not being on the court. pit hung right around this number at puke and ville, think they gonna find themselves in this one late, if they had any damn road wins (they have 1 at bc) i would go out on limb and say i think they could win this. hard to do so considering dixon afraid to schedule road gms and his team doesnt have the experience it should. still i think this stays within 3 possessions.

You called this spot on. Had I listened and not waited, I would have Won another half unit instead of pushing.

[Checkerboard]

u rok lakeshow! thanks for sharing!

[2daBank]

You called this spot on. Had I listened and not waited, I would have Won another half unit instead of pushing.

i have my moments.. you see any of the threads i wrote bout butler/creighton? i pretty much called that bitch to a tee. of coarse my fav play was that mfin total at wvu which didnt come close. in fairness to me i capped that gm with bout 30 more fts than got attempted, which woulda made it close, lol..

wish i would have seen lsu open at +4 at BOL, missed it tho and now they +2.5 everywhere. ultimately i doubt it matters cause if they actually show up and play like they capable of i think they win. if not might have been nice to have 4. hopefully good lsu shows up for 3rd gm in row, which might be asking a lot but im not high on A@M at all and was just waiting till they actually saw some of the decent teams to start fading them.

[LakeShow]

i have my moments.. you see any of the threads i wrote bout butler/creighton? i pretty much called that bitch to a tee. of coarse my fav play was that mfin total at wvu which didnt come close. in fairness to me i capped that gm with bout 30 more fts than got attempted, which woulda made it close, lol..

wish i would have seen lsu open at +4 at BOL, missed it tho and now they +2.5 everywhere. ultimately i doubt it matters cause if they actually show up and play like they capable of i think they win. if not might have been nice to have 4. hopefully good lsu shows up for 3rd gm in row, which might be asking a lot but im not high on A@M at all and was just waiting till they actually saw some of the decent teams to start fading them.

you know i was leaning on creighton +4. you can scroll up a few and see for yourself. The reason why i stayed away was because i thought it was going to come down to the wire with a slight advantage creighton. and it did…what i didn't bank on was the wvu game being a nail biter that it was.

[LakeShow]

u rok lakeshow! thanks for sharing!

thanks CB, i'm trying real hard to be selective on these picks. i hope i can keep it going at the rate that it has been trending.

[LakeShow]

leans for tuesday 2/17

Evansville -10.5
Auburn +1
Nevada +1 this intrigues me bc the line is so low…this should be NV +6
W carolina +5

[2daBank]

na you way too high,. ill take nev +6. nance aint gonna play again and go back and look at their last 3 meetings when he did play.

[2daBank]

i agree nev prob the play but it aint cause line low,. it more like cause they should prob be favs if nance out. i wouldnt make it much higher if he was in. that line gonna flip..

[2daBank]

where you getting a +5 for w.car? kinda lean that way myself but +4 best i can do at moment.

[LakeShow]

it opened at 5 and went to 4. since i capped my game at 5, i bought it.

[2daBank]

right on, was just curious if i could get it somewhere..

[LakeShow]

Evansville -10.5 2.5x
Auburn +1 1.5x
Nevada +1 this intrigues me bc the line is so low…this should be NV +6 1x
W carolina +5 2.5x

Good Luck everyone. Lets make it back to back sweep days.

[LakeShow]

caution with the NV game people.

[LakeShow]

i agree nev prob the play but it aint cause line low,. it more like cause they should prob be favs if nance out. i wouldnt make it much higher if he was in. that line gonna flip..

i'm bankin on him being out..but if not and i made the wrong call, then it costed me 1u. bu tif its right, i'd like to have the line where its at now

[2daBank]

i'm bankin on him being out..but if not and i made the wrong call, then it costed me 1u. bu tif its right, i'd like to have the line where its at now

think it would have been little higher from open if he was playing, not lot but like -2 or 3. it already pk at some places, he aint playing and nev most likely close as favs. only prob for me is i really have this thing about not liking to go against the team books opened as favs then gets flipped.. havnt even tracked it in years so dont know if just in my head or the right move these days. my thought has always been that i trust the linesmaker more than the money that says they favored wrong team.. of coarse i was all over pats in SB so guess im not all together opposed to it like i used to be..

[LakeShow]

cancel that wester carolina game. due to weather

[2daBank]

cancel that wester carolina game. due to weather

i was pissed, held out and line got to +6. then someone told me no dice..

[LakeShow]

i was pissed, held out and line got to +6. then someone told me no dice..

it actually hit 6…but doesn't matter. now i have an itch to press the other picks…or maybe just leave it well enough alone….

whats on your card today 2dabank

[LakeShow]

tx tech +9 2x
i was leaning on them but after the RLM, i'm playing it

also leaning
south carolina +7

[2daBank]

it actually hit 6…but doesn't matter. now i have an itch to press the other picks…or maybe just leave it well enough alone….

whats on your card today 2dabank

i started thread today, you didnt see? anyways

lsu+3 and gonna pound the ml at some point.
wake+11.5 (knew i should have prob waited this one out cause ND the overwhelming popular side, was content here tho).

then even tho i hate doing it i teased uga and sooners both to -2 for ev money..

think that pretty much it, still glancing but prob not much else, maybe a total. i think slu getting too many but i passed and it dropped, i get nervous bout a team when they try to give you 15 or more in conf play, lol.. still might play uk if i can get it at like -13. they shouldnt have to score more than 62 or so to cover that!

[doubledime]

[LakeShow]

i started thread today, you didnt see? anyways

lsu+3 and gonna pound the ml at some point.
wake+11.5 (knew i should have prob waited this one out cause ND the overwhelming popular side, was content here tho).

then even tho i hate doing it i teased uga and sooners both to -2 for ev money..

think that pretty much it, still glancing but prob not much else, maybe a total. i think slu getting too many but i passed and it dropped, i get nervous bout a team when they try to give you 15 or more in conf play, lol.. still might play uk if i can get it at like -13. they shouldnt have to score more than 62 or so to cover that!

i like wake forest. i just didn't pull the trigger. bol bro, and kill it.

[LakeShow]

Well fellas, look like due to weather, the Western Carolina game is DOA…street rule is if you don't show you, you forfeit..so technically…we won..we just didn't win money lolz…stupid cleveland state decided not to board the plane..pansies.

[LakeShow]

rough day for me today.
went 1-3 for 25%..

updated record 35-16

Capping games right now and should have plays up in a few

[LakeShow]

here are wednesdays plays

(1)	.Elon +5 (-110)	$220.00	$200.00
(2)	.Duquesne +10½ (-106)	$212.00	$200.00
(3)	.Xavier +1 (-122)	$244.00	$200.00
(4)	.Central Michigan -9 (+100)	$200.00	$200.00
(5)	.Minnesota -10 (-109)	$218.00	$200.00
(6)	.Oregon -6 (+100)	$200.00	$200.00
(7)	.Western Illinois +11 (-112)	$224.00	$200.00

2x each. no point in deviating units right now…might add .5-1x more per play.

bol if you are riding with me…if you are fading me..well…you would have done well on tuesday.

[LakeShow]

i wasn't going to say nothing..but i'm pissed and have to vent…WTF was up with the Nevada and Evansville game…seriously…nevada up the whole time; then decides to take a shit in the last minutes…then evansville fouling when you are up 11 pts with 15 seconds to go..its like they were trying to point shave on purpose...

ok I'm done..on to tomorrow..hopefully this time tomorrow i'm celebrating instead of venting.

[LakeShow]

went 3-4 yesterday..today we get it back hopefully.

updated record 38-20 65%

[LakeShow]

Lets get them today!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

		Risk	Win
(1)	.Maryland -8 (-109)	$218.00	$200.00
(2)	.Illinois Chicago pk (-109)	$163.50	$150.00
(3)	.UL Lafayette -5½ (-104)	$208.00	$200.00
(4)	.Cal Riverside +4 (-101)	$202.00	$200.00
(5)	.CS Fullerton +3 (-104)	$208.00	$200.00
(6)	.Oregon State +8 (-120)	$240.00	$200.00

2x each. except for ill chi, 1.5x.

[LakeShow]

live betting
SPURS pk 2x

[LakeShow]

(1)	.Pennsylvania +10 (-102)	$153.00	$150.00
(2)	.Samford +4½ (+100)	$150.00	$150.00