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GIVEMETHEMONEYSBR Hall of Famer
- 12-13-12
- 8428
#106Comment -
LakeShowSBR Sharp
- 03-20-10
- 472
#107Lets start the week off proper.
Leans for Monday 2-16
PItt +13
W VA +2
E Tenn St -6
May play all three, or none at all. WIll update as soon as i decide. what do you guys think?Comment -
2daBankSBR Aristocracy
- 01-26-09
- 88966
#108i already played pit. think that number drops a point or 2 before all said and done. they gonna be the popular side among some sharps and squares alike i would think (im no line expert tho so not like i could end up with a shit number and starring at +14 2marro, seems unlikely tho).. pit been playing like they still wanna make the tourney of late, their out of conf aint doing them any favors and this really last team they play that would stand out in eyes of committee.. ive always said playing a team that needs the W is a horrible strategy this time of year cause after all there a reason they in this spot and they typically show why. this a little different case tho, pit is actually peaking, uva still adjusting to life w/o one of their most important players, pit managed to play a couple tight ugly gms vs uva last season, and this just a shitload of points with all those things in pitts favor. ive played against uva both gms since anderson went down, basically because i think it still a unknown what this team is w/o anderson and the line hanst properly adjusted to the impact of him not being on the court. pit hung right around this number at puke and ville, think they gonna find themselves in this one late, if they had any damn road wins (they have 1 at bc) i would go out on limb and say i think they could win this. hard to do so considering dixon afraid to schedule road gms and his team doesnt have the experience it should. still i think this stays within 3 possessions.Comment -
LakeShowSBR Sharp
- 03-20-10
- 472
#109Here are my plays for tomorrow. I'm going to take it easy this monday to start the week off. Last monday was brutal. not to worry, it had zero to do with system plays. lols
Good luck tomorrow on your plays.
PItt +131x1.5x
W VA +21.5x2x
E Tenn St -5.51x1.5x
Comment -
LakeShowSBR Sharp
- 03-20-10
- 472
#110i already played pit. think that number drops a point or 2 before all said and done. they gonna be the popular side among some sharps and squares alike i would think (im no line expert tho so not like i could end up with a shit number and starring at +14 2marro, seems unlikely tho).. pit been playing like they still wanna make the tourney of late, their out of conf aint doing them any favors and this really last team they play that would stand out in eyes of committee.. ive always said playing a team that needs the W is a horrible strategy this time of year cause after all there a reason they in this spot and they typically show why. this a little different case tho, pit is actually peaking, uva still adjusting to life w/o one of their most important players, pit managed to play a couple tight ugly gms vs uva last season, and this just a shitload of points with all those things in pitts favor. ive played against uva both gms since anderson went down, basically because i think it still a unknown what this team is w/o anderson and the line hanst properly adjusted to the impact of him not being on the court. pit hung right around this number at puke and ville, think they gonna find themselves in this one late, if they had any damn road wins (they have 1 at bc) i would go out on limb and say i think they could win this. hard to do so considering dixon afraid to schedule road gms and his team doesnt have the experience it should. still i think this stays within 3 possessions.
I like the insight. I'm thinking this line is off…i believe it should be pitt +7. Seems that public is on pitt causing line to go down. public isn't always wrong. Id agree with you that there is a chance, albeit low, that pitt takes the game. I'd guess that it would be a 1 pt win. Pit has had 4 road wins out of 7. I think i might bump this up to a 2x play.Comment -
trobin31SBR Hall of Famer
- 01-09-14
- 9854
#111Have you guys seen Pitts record when they are playing against a team that holds opponents <40% fg%, have you seen Pitts record when they shoot less than 40%. I hear you guys on Virginia lacking offensive production but they couldn't shoot any worse they have recently and Pitt coming off a big win like that, shooting out of their normal range cause they're playing at home and against mediocre defense. Pitt being overvalued here to me, i think they will have a hard time scoring today and Virginia shooting improves.
UVA 65 Pitt 51Comment -
LakeShowSBR Sharp
- 03-20-10
- 472
#112Have you guys seen Pitts record when they are playing against a team that holds opponents <40% fg%, have you seen Pitts record when they shoot less than 40%. I hear you guys on Virginia lacking offensive production but they couldn't shoot any worse they have recently and Pitt coming off a big win like that, shooting out of their normal range cause they're playing at home and against mediocre defense. Pitt being overvalued here to me, i think they will have a hard time scoring today and Virginia shooting improves.
UVA 65 Pitt 51Comment -
2daBankSBR Aristocracy
- 01-26-09
- 88966
#11365-51 huh,,now say with a straight face you didnt just add 1 point to pit side of kenpoms number.Comment -
leetreaperBARRELED IN @ SBR!
- 10-23-10
- 34841
#114Comment -
LakeShowSBR Sharp
- 03-20-10
- 472
#115adding .5 units on all the picksComment -
trobin31SBR Hall of Famer
- 01-09-14
- 9854
#116Did you just accuse me of plagiarism? I don't have kenpom, did just check out the site though and seems intense. Do you like it? I primarily use sdql, basketball-reference, covers. Is kenpom worth the $20Comment -
LakeShowSBR Sharp
- 03-20-10
- 472
#117adding another unit to WVA +2.Comment -
LakeShowSBR Sharp
- 03-20-10
- 472
#118i hear you guys mention kenpom in various threads. from what i can gather, it seems that its a statical website for college ball and has predictions on games. how have their predictions been?Comment -
LakeShowSBR Sharp
- 03-20-10
- 472
#119leaning Creighton +3. not sure if i'm going to pull the trigger on this one thoughComment -
blackeyeshamusSBR Hall of Famer
- 02-19-11
- 6632
#120LS, banker was talking about that other dude who predicted a final score one point away from the Ken Pomeroy projection.Comment -
LakeShowSBR Sharp
- 03-20-10
- 472
#121black eyes, i was wondering how spot on ken pomeroys predictions are. i mean its only 20 bucks, the price of the Vig on many bets..so if its pretty accurate, id like to subscribe.Comment -
2daBankSBR Aristocracy
- 01-26-09
- 88966
#122his score predictions are really not a lot of use to me, although if there a line him and books differ with a great deal it worth being cautious with, like good chance there a reason when they very far apart.. . i pretty much do 80% of my capping with his site tho. well worth the 20 bucks. never paid for any type capping tool before but i learned to cap using kp numbers years and years ago, it was free then. when he started asking for 20 bucks i had no problem giving it to him..Comment -
LakeShowSBR Sharp
- 03-20-10
- 472
#123his score predictions are really not a lot of use to me, although if there a line him and books differ with a great deal it worth being cautious with, like good chance there a reason when they very far apart.. . i pretty much do 80% of my capping with his site tho. well worth the 20 bucks. never paid for any type capping tool before but i learned to cap using kp numbers years and years ago, it was free then. when he started asking for 20 bucks i had no problem giving it to him..Comment -
2daBankSBR Aristocracy
- 01-26-09
- 88966
#124absolutely,, all god man, you were just right on his numbers, personally i thought you were both high as shit with uva's score but dont think anderson is being adjusted enough for.. his efficiency ratings and player by player rating are invaluable to me. maybe if i didnt learn to cap using his site i could live w/o but it always been where i do 80% of my work on games.Comment -
2daBankSBR Aristocracy
- 01-26-09
- 88966
#125
mfin pit just ****** us,, seriously fouling down 11 with 22 seconds? rooster suckers.. whew, just escaped !!! woot woot!! should i mention i hit uva-8.5 and 10.5 live tooComment -
red12soxSBR MVP
- 11-28-14
- 1034
#126I had pitt +12. Ugh.Comment -
LakeShowSBR Sharp
- 03-20-10
- 472
#1272-0 so far..boom!thats how i like to start out the week. They were very close but i'm glad to be on the right side.
one more to go…lets go WVA for the sweep!!!!Comment -
2daBankSBR Aristocracy
- 01-26-09
- 88966
#128that blows man,, they were basically covering all gm and only reason you pushed was cause a totally pointless fukkin foul,, we almost pushed and you lost if uva didnt miss 2nd ft.. love college hoops but seriously down 11 with 22 seconds, just stop already. be great if there was some kind of uniform cutoff line!! or if they just lower the shot clock then it wouldnt start as soon and be less frequent.Comment -
2daBankSBR Aristocracy
- 01-26-09
- 88966
#129we shouldnt have had to worry,, basically played within number all gm, dont think they ever even got outside it did they? that last stupid foul woulda liked to fukk us. happy i got uva in live a couple times and middled the shit out of it..Comment -
red12soxSBR MVP
- 11-28-14
- 1034
#130that blows man,, they were basically covering all gm and only reason you pushed was cause a totally pointless fukkin foul,, we almost pushed and you lost if uva didnt miss 2nd ft.. love college hoops but seriously down 11 with 22 seconds, just stop already. be great if there was some kind of uniform cutoff line!! or if they just lower the shot clock then it wouldnt start as soon and be less frequent.Comment -
LakeShowSBR Sharp
- 03-20-10
- 472
#132that blows man,, they were basically covering all gm and only reason you pushed was cause a totally pointless fukkin foul,, we almost pushed and you lost if uva didnt miss 2nd ft.. love college hoops but seriously down 11 with 22 seconds, just stop already. be great if there was some kind of uniform cutoff line!! or if they just lower the shot clock then it wouldnt start as soon and be less frequent.
seriously..what makes you think you can make up 11 pts in one minute when it took you damn near a half to score that many.Comment -
blackeyeshamusSBR Hall of Famer
- 02-19-11
- 6632
#133Creighton +3 1x
Creighton +4 1x
Risking 2.60u to win 2.00u
Best of luck, y'all's.Comment -
LakeShowSBR Sharp
- 03-20-10
- 472
#134
my books a bitch with live betting…they only open it up on certain games.glad to hear you middled it brahComment -
trobin31SBR Hall of Famer
- 01-09-14
- 9854
#136I'll probably give the kenpom a shot, couldnt hurt. I have been using the sdql site alot lately and seems to help. Just a pain in the ass trying to figure out how to plug in different situations but sometimes the trends are staggering.
Somebody mentioned earlier trends can be found to support any argument which I can't wholeheartedly disagree with that statement. However, what makes a trend statistically significant and less likely due to chance is the p value. A p value less than 0.05 indicates a 95% likelihood your results are NOT due to randomness and makes for a convincing arguement.Comment -
2daBankSBR Aristocracy
- 01-26-09
- 88966
#137yea, that one of those 1s that almost feels like a loss tho. played within number all gm then take it 1 time too far with the fouling when there no chance to come back.. clock gonna change sooner than later, it pretty mf'in stupid that the chicks play with a shorter one. i guess it just started becoming a issue last 10 years or so when coaches figured out if you efficient and limit possessions for the other team you a nightmare for teams not prepared to play that way. the numbers bear it out, come tourney time the slower paced team wins tourney gms at a really high clip. of coarse now everyone playing like that, it sacrilegious how slow uk plays with with all that talent, normally you would want as many possesions as possible if you the more talented team, but of coarse if you up tempo all year and run into one of these teams that masters at grinding you lose, so now even a uk team full of nba players play at a snails pace..Comment -
LakeShowSBR Sharp
- 03-20-10
- 472
#138I'll probably give the kenpom a shot, couldnt hurt. I have been using the sdql site alot lately and seems to help. Just a pain in the ass trying to figure out how to plug in different situations but sometimes the trends are staggering.
Somebody mentioned earlier trends can be found to support any argument which I can't wholeheartedly disagree with that statement. However, what makes a trend statistically significant and less likely due to chance is the p value. A p value less than 0.05 indicates a 95% likelihood your results are NOT due to randomness and makes for a convincing arguement.
but back to the point, i'm roaming his site now. looks like i'm going to have something to do for the next few days.Comment -
2daBankSBR Aristocracy
- 01-26-09
- 88966
#139I'll probably give the kenpom a shot, couldnt hurt. I have been using the sdql site alot lately and seems to help. Just a pain in the ass trying to figure out how to plug in different situations but sometimes the trends are staggering.
Somebody mentioned earlier trends can be found to support any argument which I can't wholeheartedly disagree with that statement. However, what makes a trend statistically significant and less likely due to chance is the p value. A p value less than 0.05 indicates a 95% likelihood your results are NOT due to randomness and makes for a convincing arguement.Comment -
LakeShowSBR Sharp
- 03-20-10
- 472
#140we need WVA to go on a 10-0 run so we can middle the sh1t out of this game.Comment
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