Breaking Book!

[GIVEMETHEMONEY]

Thanks for the support brah. I"m glad you didn't tail that game. I hope no one tailed me on that game.. That has got to be one of the worse calls.

Keep up the awesome work!

[LakeShow]

Lets start the week off proper.
Leans for Monday 2-16

PItt +13
W VA +2
E Tenn St -6

May play all three, or none at all. WIll update as soon as i decide. what do you guys think?

[2daBank]

i already played pit. think that number drops a point or 2 before all said and done. they gonna be the popular side among some sharps and squares alike i would think (im no line expert tho so not like i could end up with a shit number and starring at +14 2marro, seems unlikely tho).. pit been playing like they still wanna make the tourney of late, their out of conf aint doing them any favors and this really last team they play that would stand out in eyes of committee.. ive always said playing a team that needs the W is a horrible strategy this time of year cause after all there a reason they in this spot and they typically show why. this a little different case tho, pit is actually peaking, uva still adjusting to life w/o one of their most important players, pit managed to play a couple tight ugly gms vs uva last season, and this just a shitload of points with all those things in pitts favor. ive played against uva both gms since anderson went down, basically because i think it still a unknown what this team is w/o anderson and the line hanst properly adjusted to the impact of him not being on the court. pit hung right around this number at puke and ville, think they gonna find themselves in this one late, if they had any damn road wins (they have 1 at bc) i would go out on limb and say i think they could win this. hard to do so considering dixon afraid to schedule road gms and his team doesnt have the experience it should. still i think this stays within 3 possessions.

[LakeShow]

Here are my plays for tomorrow. I'm going to take it easy this monday to start the week off. Last monday was brutal. not to worry, it had zero to do with system plays. lols

Good luck tomorrow on your plays.

PItt +13 1x1.5x
W VA +2 1.5x 2x
E Tenn St -5.5 1x 1.5x

[LakeShow]

i already played pit. think that number drops a point or 2 before all said and done. they gonna be the popular side among some sharps and squares alike i would think (im no line expert tho so not like i could end up with a shit number and starring at +14 2marro, seems unlikely tho).. pit been playing like they still wanna make the tourney of late, their out of conf aint doing them any favors and this really last team they play that would stand out in eyes of committee.. ive always said playing a team that needs the W is a horrible strategy this time of year cause after all there a reason they in this spot and they typically show why. this a little different case tho, pit is actually peaking, uva still adjusting to life w/o one of their most important players, pit managed to play a couple tight ugly gms vs uva last season, and this just a shitload of points with all those things in pitts favor. ive played against uva both gms since anderson went down, basically because i think it still a unknown what this team is w/o anderson and the line hanst properly adjusted to the impact of him not being on the court. pit hung right around this number at puke and ville, think they gonna find themselves in this one late, if they had any damn road wins (they have 1 at bc) i would go out on limb and say i think they could win this. hard to do so considering dixon afraid to schedule road gms and his team doesnt have the experience it should. still i think this stays within 3 possessions.

I like the insight. I'm thinking this line is off…i believe it should be pitt +7. Seems that public is on pitt causing line to go down. public isn't always wrong. Id agree with you that there is a chance, albeit low, that pitt takes the game. I'd guess that it would be a 1 pt win. Pit has had 4 road wins out of 7. I think i might bump this up to a 2x play.

[trobin31]

Have you guys seen Pitts record when they are playing against a team that holds opponents <40% fg%, have you seen Pitts record when they shoot less than 40%. I hear you guys on Virginia lacking offensive production but they couldn't shoot any worse they have recently and Pitt coming off a big win like that, shooting out of their normal range cause they're playing at home and against mediocre defense. Pitt being overvalued here to me, i think they will have a hard time scoring today and Virginia shooting improves.

UVA 65 Pitt 51

[LakeShow]

Have you guys seen Pitts record when they are playing against a team that holds opponents <40% fg%, have you seen Pitts record when they shoot less than 40%. I hear you guys on Virginia lacking offensive production but they couldn't shoot any worse they have recently and Pitt coming off a big win like that, shooting out of their normal range cause they're playing at home and against mediocre defense. Pitt being overvalued here to me, i think they will have a hard time scoring today and Virginia shooting improves.

UVA 65 Pitt 51

I see what you are saying, but both sides can cherry pick stats that will favor them. I can argue that yes VA is beating everyone left and right but in their last five games, they covered once…and pitt has covered 3 out of their last 4….

[2daBank]

65-51 huh,,now say with a straight face you didnt just add 1 point to pit side of kenpoms number.

[leetreaper]

[LakeShow]

adding .5 units on all the picks

[trobin31]

65-51 huh,,now say with a straight face you didnt just add 1 point to pit side of kenpoms number.

Did you just accuse me of plagiarism? I don't have kenpom, did just check out the site though and seems intense. Do you like it? I primarily use sdql, basketball-reference, covers. Is kenpom worth the $20

[LakeShow]

adding another unit to WVA +2.

[LakeShow]

i hear you guys mention kenpom in various threads. from what i can gather, it seems that its a statical website for college ball and has predictions on games. how have their predictions been?

[LakeShow]

leaning Creighton +3. not sure if i'm going to pull the trigger on this one though

[blackeyeshamus]

LS, banker was talking about that other dude who predicted a final score one point away from the Ken Pomeroy projection.

[LakeShow]

LS, banker was talking about that other dude who predicted a final score one point away from the Ken Pomeroy projection.

black eyes, i was wondering how spot on ken pomeroys predictions are. i mean its only 20 bucks, the price of the Vig on many bets..so if its pretty accurate, id like to subscribe.

[2daBank]

black eyes, i was wondering how spot on ken pomeroys predictions are. i mean its only 20 bucks, the price of the Vig on many bets..so if its pretty accurate, id like to subscribe.

his score predictions are really not a lot of use to me, although if there a line him and books differ with a great deal it worth being cautious with, like good chance there a reason when they very far apart.. . i pretty much do 80% of my capping with his site tho. well worth the 20 bucks. never paid for any type capping tool before but i learned to cap using kp numbers years and years ago, it was free then. when he started asking for 20 bucks i had no problem giving it to him..

[LakeShow]

his score predictions are really not a lot of use to me, although if there a line him and books differ with a great deal it worth being cautious with, like good chance there a reason when they very far apart.. . i pretty much do 80% of my capping with his site tho. well worth the 20 bucks. never paid for any type capping tool before but i learned to cap using kp numbers years and years ago, it was free then. when he started asking for 20 bucks i had no problem giving it to him..

thanks, i'm going to go ahead and check it out. i've been doing my capping on the free sites..sbr, covers, SAO.

[2daBank]

Did you just accuse me of plagiarism? I don't have kenpom, did just check out the site though and seems intense. Do you like it? I primarily use sdql, basketball-reference, covers. Is kenpom worth the $20

absolutely,, all god man, you were just right on his numbers, personally i thought you were both high as shit with uva's score but dont think anderson is being adjusted enough for.. his efficiency ratings and player by player rating are invaluable to me. maybe if i didnt learn to cap using his site i could live w/o but it always been where i do 80% of my work on games.

[2daBank]

thanks, i'm going to go ahead and check it out. i've been doing my capping on the free sites..sbr, covers, SAO.

his numbers will blow your mind.. once you get click on fanmatch and it will take you to that days gms, then click on whichever individual team.. after that the options are abundant! has charts breaking down previously played gms, if you click on his projected score for gm you looking into you get a nice quick side by side of stats i like. then scroll to bottom and look at most frequent used lineups, ect ect.. by the time you get done you can get a pretty good idea bout a team w/o ever seeing them..

mfin pit just ****** us,, seriously fouling down 11 with 22 seconds? rooster suckers.. whew, just escaped !!! woot woot!! should i mention i hit uva-8.5 and 10.5 live too

[red12sox]

I had pitt +12. Ugh.

[LakeShow]

2-0 so far..boom! thats how i like to start out the week. They were very close but i'm glad to be on the right side.

one more to go…lets go WVA for the sweep!!!!

[2daBank]

I had pitt +12. Ugh.

that blows man,, they were basically covering all gm and only reason you pushed was cause a totally pointless fukkin foul,, we almost pushed and you lost if uva didnt miss 2nd ft.. love college hoops but seriously down 11 with 22 seconds, just stop already. be great if there was some kind of uniform cutoff line!! or if they just lower the shot clock then it wouldnt start as soon and be less frequent.

[2daBank]

2-0 so far..boom! thats how i like to start out the week. They were very close but i'm glad to be on the right side.

one more to go…lets go WVA for the sweep!!!!

we shouldnt have had to worry,, basically played within number all gm, dont think they ever even got outside it did they? that last stupid foul woulda liked to fukk us. happy i got uva in live a couple times and middled the shit out of it..

[red12sox]

that blows man,, they were basically covering all gm and only reason you pushed was cause a totally pointless fukkin foul,, we almost pushed and you lost if uva didnt miss 2nd ft.. love college hoops but seriously down 11 with 22 seconds, just stop already. be great if there was some kind of uniform cutoff line!! or if they just lower the shot clock then it wouldnt start as soon and be less frequent.

Exactly I was screaming at the tv when they fouled. Its a joke. I saw the coaches are lobbying for a shorter shot clock. But at least I pushed...

[LakeShow]

I had pitt +12. Ugh.

damn i'm sorry bro…tbh…my add-on of half a unit pushed because i didn't want to pay to vig to bring it to 13 again. If only pitt had made their FT

[LakeShow]

that blows man,, they were basically covering all gm and only reason you pushed was cause a totally pointless fukkin foul,, we almost pushed and you lost if uva didnt miss 2nd ft.. love college hoops but seriously down 11 with 22 seconds, just stop already. be great if there was some kind of uniform cutoff line!! or if they just lower the shot clock then it wouldnt start as soon and be less frequent.

seriously..what makes you think you can make up 11 pts in one minute when it took you damn near a half to score that many.

[blackeyeshamus]

Creighton +3 1x
Creighton +4 1x
Risking 2.60u to win 2.00u
Best of luck, y'all's.

[LakeShow]

we shouldnt have had to worry,, basically played within number all gm, dont think they ever even got outside it did they? that last stupid foul woulda liked to fukk us. happy i got uva in live a couple times and middled the shit out of it..

my books a bitch with live betting…they only open it up on certain games.glad to hear you middled it brah

[LakeShow]

Creighton +3 1x
Creighton +4 1x
Risking 2.60u to win 2.00u
Best of luck, y'all's.

still haven't made up my mind on that one. either way…GL to you and hope they hit ML

[trobin31]

I'll probably give the kenpom a shot, couldnt hurt. I have been using the sdql site alot lately and seems to help. Just a pain in the ass trying to figure out how to plug in different situations but sometimes the trends are staggering.

Somebody mentioned earlier trends can be found to support any argument which I can't wholeheartedly disagree with that statement. However, what makes a trend statistically significant and less likely due to chance is the p value. A p value less than 0.05 indicates a 95% likelihood your results are NOT due to randomness and makes for a convincing arguement.

[2daBank]

Exactly I was screaming at the tv when they fouled. Its a joke. I saw the coaches are lobbying for a shorter shot clock. But at least I pushed...

yea, that one of those 1s that almost feels like a loss tho. played within number all gm then take it 1 time too far with the fouling when there no chance to come back.. clock gonna change sooner than later, it pretty mf'in stupid that the chicks play with a shorter one. i guess it just started becoming a issue last 10 years or so when coaches figured out if you efficient and limit possessions for the other team you a nightmare for teams not prepared to play that way. the numbers bear it out, come tourney time the slower paced team wins tourney gms at a really high clip. of coarse now everyone playing like that, it sacrilegious how slow uk plays with with all that talent, normally you would want as many possesions as possible if you the more talented team, but of coarse if you up tempo all year and run into one of these teams that masters at grinding you lose, so now even a uk team full of nba players play at a snails pace..

[LakeShow]

I'll probably give the kenpom a shot, couldnt hurt. I have been using the sdql site alot lately and seems to help. Just a pain in the ass trying to figure out how to plug in different situations but sometimes the trends are staggering.

Somebody mentioned earlier trends can be found to support any argument which I can't wholeheartedly disagree with that statement. However, what makes a trend statistically significant and less likely due to chance is the p value. A p value less than 0.05 indicates a 95% likelihood your results are NOT due to randomness and makes for a convincing arguement.

that was me that made that argument about cherry picking trends….but really that pitt game came down to pitt covering with VA missing a FT; however VA shouldn't have ever been in that position to shoot ft. Pitt should have covered 11pts…va backers at 11 were given a gift at a push.

but back to the point, i'm roaming his site now. looks like i'm going to have something to do for the next few days.

[2daBank]

I'll probably give the kenpom a shot, couldnt hurt. I have been using the sdql site alot lately and seems to help. Just a pain in the ass trying to figure out how to plug in different situations but sometimes the trends are staggering.

Somebody mentioned earlier trends can be found to support any argument which I can't wholeheartedly disagree with that statement. However, what makes a trend statistically significant and less likely due to chance is the p value. A p value less than 0.05 indicates a 95% likelihood your results are NOT due to randomness and makes for a convincing arguement.

im not much of a trend guy at all, i know several guys that like trends and situational capping, occasionally ill jump on board or at least take into consideration but i prefer breaking down individual matchups along with using certain adjusted tempo and efficiency numbers to get a idea how many possessions i can expect and that gives me my initial line i start working off.. sure you can use stats to back up both sides of a spread, there was a decent argument for both sides of butler and creighton i thought which was why i passed. the whole trick is finding a method of your own to be able to weight what numbers you feel are gonna be most important in each individual gm. or something like that.

[LakeShow]

we need WVA to go on a 10-0 run so we can middle the sh1t out of this game.