2013-2014 nba/ncaa

[Emancipator]

Big College basketball fan and even bigger KU fan. Will be tracking my picks here along with NBA, though I'm not sure how much NBA once CBB starts on the 8th.

Teaser (1.2 To win 1.0)
Bucks +16
Wolves -2
Pacers +8

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Shouldn't have cashed, but I'll take it. I feel better knowing two of three covered the spread.

1-0 (+1.00)

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Wolves -2.5 (1.10 to win 1.00)

Really wish I could of bet this at a pick yesterday. Regardless of the extra points, Thunder lost both games in Minny last year, one of those was without star PF Kevin Love. Now the Thunder head back to Minny and will be without superstar point guard Russell Westbrook, though Budinger is out for the Wolves, Westbrook is easily more important than Budinger.

After escaping with a win the other night against the Magic, I'm expect Wolves to be on their game against the Thunder who limped to victory in Utah winning by three. Problem is this time Durant won't be shooting 20+ foul shots, he'll actually have to play defense and the Wolves won't turn the ball over 20+ times.

Teaser (1.20 to win 1.00):
Orlando +11.5- Home Opener against a team that is a little overrated, good situational.
76ers +17- I saw what happened to the Lakers after their monster home win, the difference? The 76ers won't be playing a title contender, +9 against the Wizards Enough said.
Grizzlies Pick- Home opener, lost season opener against the Spurs a couple nights ago ... They'll bring it.

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Live Bet:
Pistons PK +110
Didn't like the way the Grizzlies/Pistons game looked.

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Wolves -2.5 (1.10 to win 1.00)

Really wish I could of bet this at a pick yesterday. Regardless of the extra points, Thunder lost both games in Minny last year, one of those was without star PF Kevin Love. Now the Thunder head back to Minny and will be without superstar point guard Russell Westbrook, though Budinger is out for the Wolves, Westbrook is easily more important than Budinger.

After escaping with a win the other night against the Magic, I'm expect Wolves to be on their game against the Thunder who limped to victory in Utah winning by three. Problem is this time Durant won't be shooting 20+ foul shots, he'll actually have to play defense and the Wolves won't turn the ball over 20+ times.

Teaser (1.20 to win 1.00):
Orlando +11.5- Home Opener against a team that is a little overrated, good situational.
76ers +17- I saw what happened to the Lakers after their monster home win, the difference? The 76ers won't be playing a title contender, +9 against the Wizards Enough said.
Grizzlies Pick- Home opener, lost season opener against the Spurs a couple nights ago ... They'll bring it.

Live Bet:
Pistons PK +110
Didn't like the way the Grizzlies/Pistons game looked.

2-1 (+0.90) for the night I'll happily drop the vig for cancelling the Teaser ... Especially with the Pistons up 5 with nine to go and the Wolves up 30.

TTL: 3-1 (+1.90)

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Teaser (1.20 To win 1.00):
Pacers Pick-Pacers Dominated Cleveland at Home last winning by double digits both games, they get to play a Cleveland team who lost to Charlotte last night with a day of rest.
76ers +17-Still Undervalued IMO, I would think the Bulls will want to slow this game down and use their size against the smaller 76er lineup. With Rose still trying to get back into his groove, going against the lanky Carter Williams, I expect this to be low scoring and a close game.
Pelicans pick-Bobcats have typically struggled against the Pelicans @ home over the past few years, now they'll go up against a Pelican team that will be hungry for a win after blowing a Pacers game and getting trounced in Orlando last night.

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Blazers Pk (.55 To win .50)

Liked the idea of taking the Spurs last night at a pick, and come to find out that the Blazers have faired better than anyone else when facing the Spurs, they've won 12 of the past 17 meetings including 8 of the last 9 in Portland. Take into account that the Blazers have won there last five home openers, and the Spurs will likely be without Duncan, a Blazers win becomes very likely.

Bet feels similiar to yesterdays Wolves game.

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HOU/UTAH U199.5 @-110 (.55 To win .50)

Under has covered last four games between these two at Utah. Both teams are big in the frontcourt and have played pretty good defense so far this year despite the high point totals, and I feel both teams will find it particularly difficult to score, especially for the Jazz with Howard down low.

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Teaser (1.20 To win 1.00): WIN
Pacers Pick-Pacers Dominated Cleveland at Home last winning by double digits both games, they get to play a Cleveland team who lost to Charlotte last night with a day of rest.
76ers +17-Still Undervalued IMO, I would think the Bulls will want to slow this game down and use their size against the smaller 76er lineup. With Rose still trying to get back into his groove, going against the lanky Carter Williams, I expect this to be low scoring and a close game.
Pelicans pick-Bobcats have typically struggled against the Pelicans @ home over the past few years, now they'll go up against a Pelican team that will be hungry for a win after blowing a Pacers game and getting trounced in Orlando last night.

Blazers Pk (.55 To win .50) WIN

Liked the idea of taking the Spurs last night at a pick, and come to find out that the Blazers have faired better than anyone else when facing the Spurs, they've won 12 of the past 17 meetings including 8 of the last 9 in Portland. Take into account that the Blazers have won there last five home openers, and the Spurs will likely be without Duncan, a Blazers win becomes very likely.

Bet feels similiar to yesterdays Wolves game.

HOU/UTAH U199.5 @-110 (.55 To win .50) WIN

Under has covered last four games between these two at Utah. Both teams are big in the frontcourt and have played pretty good defense so far this year despite the high point totals, and I feel both teams will find it particularly difficult to score, especially for the Jazz with Howard down low.

Under was close but I'll take it. Utah's D wasn't as good as I thought it would of been but they did well enough.

Spurs rolled with Duncan last night but it didn't matter as they were down most of the game and loss by 10.


Today I'm leaning Hawks -2 over the Lakers or the game ttl under, but I'm uncertain as to whether Atlanta's defense would be able to get the job done. Lakers will live and die by the three pointer until Kobe comes back and taking a week defensive team against these Lakers seems somewhat risky.

Will probably just pass on todays action and watch my Chiefs go 9-0 (Though I won't be holding my breath), and looking for my Panthers/Patriots Teaser hit for me.

TTL in thread: 6-1 (+4.00) adjusted since Memphis ended up pulling out the win against the Pistons.

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November 4th:

Warriors 1st Half -3.5 (1.15 To win 1.00)

Philly has started slow past two games to the tone of double digit half time deficits. Yes they were up two at half and 19 at the end of the 1st, but they just came off a win against the Bulls and figured they would be able to just walk into Philly and wing it against what Vegas pegged as 15-20 win team but they shaped up and destroyed them 2nd and third quarter.

ESPN's preview quotes Curry:

"You want to feel good before getting on the plane (Sunday) and traveling, but we know going into Philly they're a hot team right now," said Curry, who has 18 turnovers in the last two games. "They've got some players playing at a high level, so we've got to come out ready to go start the road trip off on a good foot."

This tells me the Warriors will be on their game agianst the 76ers and that Curry doesn't want to get outplayed by the Rookie MCW, he's been turning the ball over past couple games and I think he'll be better in that department tonight.

The Bulls were up 15 at half time in Philly and this is a better team than Chicago right now and will be until Rose gets his shit together. The -7 is a pretty good bet, thinking this young 76ers team will come back down to earth against a Warriors team I expect to vye for a spot in WCF. But considering how slow they've started the past couple games and how theyve finished, I think the first half is the better bet in this one.

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TOP STORIES
TOP VIDEOS

Tank That!

The Sixers are suddenly invincible. How'd it happen? And, more importantly, can it last? Per Diem
Tank Rank: Worst 10 HoopIdea: Problem? » Stein: Top 30 » Ford chat Haberstroh, 2


I like seeing this

[Emancipator]

November 4th:

Warriors 1st Half -3.5 (1.15 To win 1.00) WIN

Philly has started slow past two games to the tone of double digit half time deficits. Yes they were up two at half and 19 at the end of the 1st, but they just came off a win against the Bulls and figured they would be able to just walk into Philly and wing it against what Vegas pegged as 15-20 win team but they shaped up and destroyed them 2nd and third quarter.

ESPN's preview quotes Curry:

"You want to feel good before getting on the plane (Sunday) and traveling, but we know going into Philly they're a hot team right now," said Curry, who has 18 turnovers in the last two games. "They've got some players playing at a high level, so we've got to come out ready to go start the road trip off on a good foot."

This tells me the Warriors will be on their game agianst the 76ers and that Curry doesn't want to get outplayed by the Rookie MCW, he's been turning the ball over past couple games and I think he'll be better in that department tonight.

The Bulls were up 15 at half time in Philly and this is a better team than Chicago right now and will be until Rose gets his shit together. The -7 is a pretty good bet, thinking this young 76ers team will come back down to earth against a Warriors team I expect to vye for a spot in WCF. But considering how slow they've started the past couple games and how theyve finished, I think the first half is the better bet in this one.

Was getting a little to close there in the second, but I can't see the Warriors coming back against the Warriors down 24, maybe for the cover but I can't see them getting the win.

TTL: 7-1 (+5.00)

[Marqfan]

Good work. Look forward to tailing you this year

[Emancipator]

Good work. Look forward to tailing you this year

Tail with Caution

[Emancipator]

November 5th:

Teaser (1.20 to win 1.00):
Jazz +18- Williams will has yet to beat his former after leaving them a couple years ago, though I'm certain Williams will be hungry for a win against the Jazz after dropping all four last year, I feel that it is negated by the lack of chemistry he has with his team at the moment. The Jazz will also be looking for their first win, looking to aviod there worst start in years.
Knicks -1- After a poor showing against the Wolves the other night, I'm expecting the Knicks to play hard tonight against Charlotte, who has lost 26 of their last 28 on the road (the two wins coming in Orlando). Add Jefferson's injury forcing him to miss tonights action no sign of the bobcats bucking their road troubles after losing in New Orleans the other night by 20, the Knicks have no excuse if they lose this game.
Hawks +10- They don't generally play well on the road but a historically bad Kings team has been a exception, as the Hawks have won their last five in Sacramento. They get a day of rest after losing to the Lakers by 2 in LA. I also think this is a better team at the moment than the Denver squad, who lost by only two in Sacramento a week ago. Consequently it's hard imagining the Hawks losing by double digits

NO/PHX U192.5 (.55 to win .50)- six of the last eight between these two have covered the under, both teams have played well defensively so far this year. With Davis patrolling the paint down low, and Hornacek getting the most out of his team early on in the season, I feel it's worth a small bet.

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Grabbed Charlotte Pick (1.00 To win 1.16) to cancel teaser that never should have been placed.

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November 5th:

Teaser (1.20 to win 1.00): LOSS
Jazz +18- Williams will has yet to beat his former after leaving them a couple years ago, though I'm certain Williams will be hungry for a win against the Jazz after dropping all four last year, I feel that it is negated by the lack of chemistry he has with his team at the moment. The Jazz will also be looking for their first win, looking to aviod there worst start in years.
Knicks -1- After a poor showing against the Wolves the other night, I'm expecting the Knicks to play hard tonight against Charlotte, who has lost 26 of their last 28 on the road (the two wins coming in Orlando). Add Jefferson's injury forcing him to miss tonights action no sign of the bobcats bucking their road troubles after losing in New Orleans the other night by 20, the Knicks have no excuse if they lose this game.
Hawks +10- They don't generally play well on the road but a historically bad Kings team has been a exception, as the Hawks have won their last five in Sacramento. They get a day of rest after losing to the Lakers by 2 in LA. I also think this is a better team at the moment than the Denver squad, who lost by only two in Sacramento a week ago. Consequently it's hard imagining the Hawks losing by double digits

NO/PHX U192.5 (.55 to win .50) LOSS
six of the last eight between these two have covered the under, both teams have played well defensively so far this year. With Davis patrolling the paint down low, and Hornacek getting the most out of his team early on in the season, I feel it's worth a small bet.

Grabbed Charlotte Pick (1.00 To win 1.16) WIN to cancel teaser that never should have been placed.

High scoring 3rd quarter smashes my under, teaser was terrific fading material.

TTL: 8-3 (+4.31)

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Rockets 2nd Half ML +145 (0.50 To win 0.725)
Rockets have performed better in the second half so far this year, the opposite can be said for the Blazers. Seems like good value.

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Rockets 2nd Half ML +145 (0.50 To win 0.725) WIN
Rockets have performed better in the second half so far this year, the opposite can be said for the Blazers. Seems like good value.

Today: 2-2 (+0.13)
TTL: 9-3 (+5.13)

[Emancipator]

Pacers -2.5 (1.65 To win 1.50)
Suns +13 (1.65 To win 1.50)

These two lines seem like gifts from the oddsmakers.

Pacers should be at least a -4 favorite at this point the way they have performed. Last year Pacers were favorites of -5.5 and -7.5, apparently the books think the Bulls are five points better with Rose back but the first three games have proven this notion to be anything but correct. Not only is Rose struggling but the team in general is not shooting well and isn't playing there typical stingy defense that one has come to expect of Bulls squad since Thibodeau took over. It's also pretty bad when you can only beat this years Knicks by one on your home court, that's how much the team is struggling at the moment.

The Pacers however have so far proven themselves to be the team that everyone thought they would be Defense excellent so far this year and Paul George continues improve his game. They haven't played a league powerhouse yet (Though Chicago doesn't look like one) but they nice road wins against the improved Pistons and Pelicans and took care of the Cavs and Magic in a way we have come to expect.

It Baffles me that 60+% of the public has the Bulls spread tonight ... Have they not been paying attention?
It's possible that Bulls overcome their early season struggles tonight and worked through their problems over the past few days off, but I'm willing to bet against that and say the Bulls haven't hit rock bottom yet, perhaps they do after tonight.
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Suns so far have not played like a 13pt underdog, they have three wins and one loss which came in OKC with margin of only 7pts, as they were only down a possession or two for most of the game, or possessing the lead at times.

The Spurs are meeting expectations so far this year, their only loss coming against the Blazers in Portland, a game they don't typically win anyways, but they seem to be overvalued against the Suns at this point by a basket or two.

Both teams will be playing on no rest, but I'll take the young Suns team that to this point in the season who have played hard every night, against an aging Spurs team who is more likely to take a day off or not give 100% effort.

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Cavaliers -2 (0.55 To win 0.50)
Good spot for the Cavs to get their first road win.

An example of how dysfunctional the Bucks are, the bench outscores it's starters by a margin of 18pts with their only win coming against the lowly Celtics, otherwise they've lost their only home of the year coming against Raptors. If the Raptors can get a win Milwaukee I think the Cav's are more than capable of such a feat, who i think at this point has proven to be a better team.

Cavs have also won their last two games against the Bucks one of which was in Milwaukee, and have won 4 of their last five against the spread in Milwaukee. Since last year it looks as if the Cavs have taken a step forward and the Bucks have fallen a bit from where they were last year.

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Live bet Milwaukee -2.5 (.60 To win .60) To cancel Cleveland bet.

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Pacers -2.5 (1.65 To win 1.50) WIN
Suns +13 (1.65 To win 1.50) WIN

These two lines seem like gifts from the oddsmakers.

Pacers should be at least a -4 favorite at this point the way they have performed. Last year Pacers were favorites of -5.5 and -7.5, apparently the books think the Bulls are five points better with Rose back but the first three games have proven this notion to be anything but correct. Not only is Rose struggling but the team in general is not shooting well and isn't playing there typical stingy defense that one has come to expect of Bulls squad since Thibodeau took over. It's also pretty bad when you can only beat this years Knicks by one on your home court, that's how much the team is struggling at the moment.

The Pacers however have so far proven themselves to be the team that everyone thought they would be Defense excellent so far this year and Paul George continues improve his game. They haven't played a league powerhouse yet (Though Chicago doesn't look like one) but they nice road wins against the improved Pistons and Pelicans and took care of the Cavs and Magic in a way we have come to expect.

It Baffles me that 60+% of the public has the Bulls spread tonight ... Have they not been paying attention?
It's possible that Bulls overcome their early season struggles tonight and worked through their problems over the past few days off, but I'm willing to bet against that and say the Bulls haven't hit rock bottom yet, perhaps they do after tonight.
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Suns so far have not played like a 13pt underdog, they have three wins and one loss which came in OKC with margin of only 7pts, as they were only down a possession or two for most of the game, or possessing the lead at times.

The Spurs are meeting expectations so far this year, their only loss coming against the Blazers in Portland, a game they don't typically win anyways, but they seem to be overvalued against the Suns at this point by a basket or two.

Both teams will be playing on no rest, but I'll take the young Suns team that to this point in the season who have played hard every night, against an aging Spurs team who is more likely to take a day off or not give 100% effort.

Cavaliers -2 (0.55 To win 0.50) LOSS
Good spot for the Cavs to get their first road win.

An example of how dysfunctional the Bucks are, the bench outscores it's starters by a margin of 18pts with their only win coming against the lowly Celtics, otherwise they've lost their only home of the year coming against Raptors. If the Raptors can get a win Milwaukee I think the Cav's are more than capable of such a feat, who i think at this point has proven to be a better team.

Cavs have also won their last two games against the Bucks one of which was in Milwaukee, and have won 4 of their last five against the spread in Milwaukee. Since last year it looks as if the Cavs have taken a step forward and the Bucks have fallen a bit from where they were last year.

Live bet Milwaukee -2.5 (.60 To win .60) WIN To cancel Cleveland bet.

Cavs clawed back to go up 1 with a minute to go but still gave it away. Hedge almost backfired but not quite.

Today: 3-1 (+3.05)
TTL: 12-4 (+8.18)

Probably won't play anything tomorrow, likely going through CBB lines and researching teams and any angles for the start of the season Friday.

If I do bet anything ... I'm leaning Houston to cover at home against the Lakers. Considering what happened to LA in Francisco and Houston's Defense minus what happened to the Clippers IN Los Angeles.

[freezefail]

Good picks... my teasers are similar, past 3 days I been losing my 4 team teasers by 1 team....smh...fml
Don't understand that shit at ALL... Knicks raped 2 of my teasers yesterday.

[Emancipator]

Good picks... my teasers are similar, past 3 days I been losing my 4 team teasers by 1 team....smh...fml
Don't understand that shit at ALL... Knicks raped 2 of my teasers yesterday.

Yeah, the Knicks are Trash, and are complete shit now depending on how bad Chandlers injury is, will be looking to fade them from here on out if the books don't adjust for his absence.

Knicks were outrebounded 51-33 the other night, and the Bobcats didn't even have their starting Center, I'm going to have to get a shit ton of points if I'm going to take the Knicks. Otherwise I plan to take advantage of the line and fade the Knicks like I did my first side bet of the year with the Wolves against the Thunder without Westbrook (I think his importance to his team is comparable).

I'm also starting to towards the idea that taking points is usually the better option with teasers, especially when you can get +18,+20 just because in case you were wrong you have a great margin of safety, because teams get that backdoor fourth quarter cover.

And Thanks, hopefully I can stay disciplined and keep it going.

[Emancipator]

Yeah, the Knicks are Trash, and are complete shit now depending on how bad Chandlers injury is, will be looking to fade them from here on out if the books don't adjust for his absence.

Knicks were outrebounded 51-33 the other night, and the Bobcats didn't even have their starting Center, I'm going to have to get a shit ton of points if I'm going to take the Knicks. Otherwise I plan to take advantage of the line and fade the Knicks like I did my first side bet of the year with the Wolves against the Thunder without Westbrook (I think his importance to his team is comparable).

I'm also starting to towards the idea that taking points is usually the better option with teasers, especially when you can get +18,+20 just because in case you were wrong you have a great margin of safety, because teams get that backdoor fourth quarter cover.

Chandler is out with fractured Fibula, Woodson says he may have to go small with Bargnani at Center. Fade accordingly.

[Emancipator]

HOU/LAL U217.5 (0.55 To win .50)

I said I wasn't going to take any bets today but then I saw this total and couldn't resist.

Houston has not been that bad defensively, aside from the lone game in LA where they allowed 137 they've been pretty good and will be at home against a shitty Lakers team who doesn't score that well despite putting a hundred up in three of their five games. Houston may hold up their end of the bargain but I don't see the Lakers scoring 100+ tonight which will be the deciding factor.

[Emancipator]

u217 good work

Thanks but we'll see, it has to hit first.

I don't have the best understanding Basketball totals which is ironic considering its my favorite sport and one understand best.

[Emancipator]

NCAA Plays for November 8th:

Army -3 (.55 To win .50)
Air Force loss four of its five starters and will definitely be taking a step back this year likely finishing in the bottom of their conference. And while their will be a few players with some experience to take over where guys like Micheal Lyons left off, it could be tough early on figuring out who is going to replace all the lost production. Meanwhile, Army is heading in the right directon, after giving his freshman a lot of playing time last year and only losing one key starter in Ella Ellis, Spiker's team will look for a chance to vye for a conference championship if everything comes together, as this young team with alot of depth blossoms. This game last year wasn't decided until the final minutes (don't let the final score fool you), Army will be looking for revenge and they should enact it against a team that isn't nearly as good as last year Air Force squad.

VCU -20.5 (.55 To win .50)
This one has slaughter written all over it. For Illinios State, only two players that saw playing time last year return, luckily those two guys are a PG Kaza Keane and Wing Nick Zeisloft but that probably won't be enough. Keane did start 10 games last year at point, but couldn't take care of the ball, holding the worst turnover rate out of any PG in the conference, while Zeisloft is more of a shooter who benefited fromt the attention his teammates drew last year that are now gone. The rest of the roster is shored up with JUCO and freshmen and sadly it appears the strongest area for this team is the backcourt. And VCU is VCU. While they do drop some offensive firepower, they will be more balanced on both sides of the ball and won't be like last years team that folded when they couldn't force turnovers as they have players who can play stingy half court defense. I saw what they did to a depleted Akron team in the NCAA tournament last year, and I don't see how this would be any different.

Troy +15.5 (1.10 to win 1.00)
With the Big boys Holloway and Buckner gone down low and Marshall out to start the season, Ole Miss has alot of production to replace early on especially down low, so it seems that Ole Miss will take a step back this year and an even bigger one until Henderson returns, which bodes well for a visiting Troy team that I think has a shot to upset Miss. Troy will be fielding a completely new scheme with new head coach Maestri coming from Western Kentucky, that looks for tough m2m defense, better shots, and overall smarter play. Though Troy is replacing a couple seniors they will still field six more, including two senior guards who started last year which will be important playing in Mississippi. Overall, I think Troy matches up well at guard and may hold the edge down low over a young Ole Miss frontcourt. It will be interesting early on to see how the Rebels adjust to not having a couple freaks of nature starting in the post (It should be noticeable).

Leans
Providence -3
Deleware +8 (might bet this)
Louisiana Tech +5
Oakland +17

[Louisvillekid1]

Good Reads guy

[Emancipator]

Good Reads guy

Thanks, just hoping they play out the way I wrote them.

[Emancipator]

HOU/LAL U217.5 (0.55 To win .50) WIN

I said I wasn't going to take any bets today but then I saw this total and couldn't resist.

Houston has not been that bad defensively, aside from the lone game in LA where they allowed 137 they've been pretty good and will be at home against a shitty Lakers team who doesn't score that well despite putting a hundred up in three of their five games. Houston may hold up their end of the bargain but I don't see the Lakers scoring 100+ tonight which will be the deciding factor.

Good to see the Lakers cooled off and the defense showed up second half.

TTL: 13-4 (+8.68)

[wizcodlifa]

you really like Army??

[Emancipator]

you really like Army??

Should I not?

Seems like a no brainer. Air Force taking steps backwards, Army is moving on up, returningthe core of their team from last year, the same group that was in this game until final minutes last year as a bunch freshman getting their college cherry's popped. It's also not 6,000 ft up in the mountains.

[Emancipator]

Army -3 (.55 To win .50) LOSS
Air Force loss four of its five starters and will definitely be taking a step back this year likely finishing in the bottom of their conference. And while their will be a few players with some experience to take over where guys like Micheal Lyons left off, it could be tough early on figuring out who is going to replace all the lost production. Meanwhile, Army is heading in the right directon, after giving his freshman a lot of playing time last year and only losing one key starter in Ella Ellis, Spiker's team will look for a chance to vye for a conference championship if everything comes together, as this young team with alot of depth blossoms. This game last year wasn't decided until the final minutes (don't let the final score fool you), Army will be looking for revenge and they should enact it against a team that isn't nearly as good as last year Air Force squad.

Wow If anyone saw that game, could you please answer one question ...

Was Army's shooting that bad or was it better defense by Air Force?

Either way 0-1 (-0.55)