Bulls -3.5 Is this some kind of sick Joke??????????

[innovation]

I understand this is the Bulls 6 game in 8 days but and they are in the middle of a huge road trip. However in the 9 games away they are playing against some terrible teams WAS, NY, CHA, NJ, and NO.


I have the Bulls between a -14.5 and -11.8 favorite. This doesnt account for injurioes and b2b schedualing. So I could see maybe 2 or 3 points given. The Knicks are bang up too.

I also notice of the 5 Bulls starters all but Korver played the fewest minutes last night of any of their last 5 games and actaully most the season. Expected when you get mauled like they did last in Philly.

I wouldn't say traveling Philly to NY is a major ordeal either.

Home dogs on Thursdays have not won SU since January 5th so perhaps they are due.

On the other side home dogs SU last 7 days are 10-9 52.63% thats a very high clip.

Favorites on Thursdays are 15-5 and of those 15 wins they have covered 13 times.


Are the books trying to hard for action on Knicks or tipping their hand?


When its to good to be true it usaully is.


Thoughts?

[innovation]

I could see Knicks coming out firing and building up a lead. The difference between Philly last night and the Knicks having a lead they dont know how to finish a team off. Bassically that happens on the defesnive side of the court.. Bulls for 2cnd year in row now lead the league in 4th quarter margin and are better on the road at +3.4 in 4th quarter.

I wouldnt be suprised to see a game similiar to Spurs last night. Knicks lead the whole way and get nipped at the end. Bulls win but dont cover. just my 2 cents.

[DonFilet59]

The Bulls conceided defeat last night in the second half, playing Scalabrine and Lucas for a majority of the fourth quarter. I expect an inspired performance by the Bulls after being outhustled and outmuscled last night. They come in with something to prove in this game.

[tokio]

i'd take them in this spot

[ephi408]

How does a -11.8 spread work?

[theone78]

i believe bulls want this badly off a bad loss last night. this is one team you can count on to give you a good effort everynight rose and noah love the game they are young and hungry and they both love to win more then charlie sheen.

[innovation]

I am not a bookmaker so I don't round to a half point.

[BlurredOut]

took Bulls +0.5 in a teaser

would be pretty surprised if they can't win

[ScurvyPirate]

I think you nailed it in your initial post. The reason is because of the amount of games they have played in such a short period. Otherwise they would be favored by more, gonna leave this game alone. I can see the Bulls losing in this spot. Clearly better team, but they are always bumps along the way, this could be one. GL.

[nbafanatic2012]

Amare and Melo probable

[ScurvyPirate]

I guess Deng is probable as well. Probably make a 2nd half play after watching.

[YouHave2outs]

I have the Bulls between a -14.5 and -11.8 favorite. This doesnt account for injurioes and b2b schedualing. So I could see maybe 2 or 3 points given.

say you give 2.5 points to adjuts for your injuries and scheduling. that puts bulls at -9 to -12 in your opinion. so if the bulls were at home you think they should be favored by 15 to 18? seems absurd to me. from my bumbling perspective, it seems the 3.5 line can't be too far off from where it should be

[innovation]

I am trying to find any reason to support the Knicks besides the fact that they lost 2 of last 3 at home to Bulls.

One thing that I see is the in the Bulls 6 losses on the season 5 of those teams are ranked no worse than 8th in top 3 point shooting percentage. GS, ATL, IND, MIA, PHI all average no less than 36.9% from downtown. The Bulls are allowing 38.1% beyond the arch on the road this year.

The Knicks howver are ranked 24th this year averaging 31.4% A far cry from last year at 36.7%. They seem to be heating up though hitting 50% vs Detriot and 33.6% last 3 overall including when they shot a piss poor vs Houston at 19.2% without Melo.

The Knicks are 2cnd in the league in the % of there points that come from downtown. In fact 23.4 of there total points come from beyond the arch. So it all boils down to wether or not they hit over a 35% clip tonight to have a chance to win which at this point I think the books are leaning they will.

Interesting that the Bulls are tied for 1st with Houston in allowing fewer than 15.9% of opponents points beyond the arch. So while a banged up and Melo-less knicks team was held to 19% at Houston I feel tonight will be much different at home. Maybe its time for the lime light to shine on New York for one night. Its about all this team has to play for this season. A National spotlight game aginst a really good club.

I am not sold on Knicks because dont like to back dogs who don't play defense.

I do think I just made a decent case for the over 191.

Not locking anything in yet.

[innovation]

say you give 2.5 points to adjuts for your injuries and scheduling. that puts bulls at -9 to -12 in your opinion. so if the bulls were at home you think they should be favored by 15 to 18? seems absurd to me. from my bumbling perspective, it seems the 3.5 line can't be too far off from where it should be

I wouldnt use Bulls away numbers for home games nor Knicks home numbers for away games. I have a stronger value for Knicks on the road than I do at home so thats why I have Bulls favored by so much.

Absurd probably but I make my lines to keep a constant value for each team before I look at vegas lines. Last Night I had Portlan -18 to -21 and if I used the potential home court advatage some sites suggest Portland has at home I could have Portland -28.

[Seaweed]

Good Luck, Innovation.

[innovation]

Thanks seaweed. Good to see you again.

[YouHave2outs]

another thing to consider is that the Knicks have been playing like complete trash as everyone knows, and this is a big chance for them to at least show they can beat a contender at home. Knicks will play as hard as they can against a possibly tired Bulls team in my opinion

[j_to_the]

funny thing.... using my (new) system (that isn't proven yet) i had the Bulls at -2...

i kinda chuckled.. then checked the line... -3.5

i am still confused.

but avoiding the game. GL!

[shark2434]

sickest joke ever

You write "Born to Kill" on your helmet and you wear a peace button. What's that supposed to be, some kind of sick joke?

[d2bets]

took Bulls +0.5 in a teaser

would be pretty surprised if they can't win

Why the hell would you do that (lay around -250) when you could just bet the ML laying -160 or so?

[Seaweed]

Why the hell would you do that (lay around -250) when you could just bet the ML laying -160 or so?

I was kind of wondering the same thing

[innovation]

I decided to stay away from this game. In fact both TNT games I am thumbing my nose at.

Call me crazy or greedy but I am playing these 3.

Grizz +160 ML
Hornets +400 ML
Kings's +145 ML

Thats my final card 1 unit each

GL

[Speedy88]

Only times it is worth it to back the Knicks is in big game situations such as when they play the Lakers, Heat, Bulls, OKC, etc.

[Seaweed]

I decided to stay away from this game. In fact both TNT games I am thumbing my nose at.

Call me crazy or greedy but I am playing these 3.

Grizz +160 ML
Hornets +400 ML
Kings's +145 ML

Thats my final card 1 unit each

GL

So what convinced you to stay away from the Bulls?

[Goat Milk]

i like the knicks although I am scared to bet against Rose here. Deng is going to be rusty if he plays and he's their second best player.

[innovation]

Seaweed i just dont like playing TNT games they are so Bizarre. I was glad I stayed away from Orlando last week.

Remember on thursdays so far of 20 gamesso far 15 favorites have won and 13 of those covered the spread (86.6%). I can see a 98-95 Bulls win. I figure the dogs will start coming back ats soon.

[innovation]

What do you know a 3 point game.

[Seaweed]

What do you know a 3 point game.