LTA's NBA Plays

[meader99]

Added 1x to Play #1. Correct units denoted above.

Good luck.

Does your model show any value on the spread of tonights game? I think the Heat grab em by the throat tonight and virtually end it.

[Tofudog]

Did you buy a half point LTA??? My book still has 180.5. Would you say it will go up to 181?

[Love The Action]

Did you buy a half point LTA??? My book still has 180.5. Would you say it will go up to 181?

Nope, I would have stated that in the odds as always. You need more outs. 181 has been available all morning at multiple books and still remains at 5d, pinny, bovada, BM, Heritage, etc. good luck.

[Love The Action]

Does your model show any value on the spread of tonights game? I think the Heat grab em by the throat tonight and virtually end it.

Little bit of value....good luck on your plays.

[dmitean]

Agree with the Under in Boston.
As for the Over in Oklahoma, I took the Over in first two games in SA, but I don't feel as comfortable taking the Over in Oklahoma.

Yesterday they gave stats for OKC at home - they shoot 1 point less at home, but stop the rival team on 10 points less than they do on the road.
Spurs on the other hand, go wild at home, ball movement, everyone shoots and scores. Not the case on the road.
I will probably continue to back the Over in SA, but stay clear of it in games in Oklahoma.

I probably will back the home teams in both of the series for the next game...

Good luck on both plays!

[SlickRick1382]

Does your model show any value on the spread of tonights game? I think the Heat grab em by the throat tonight and virtually end it.

Lets hope not. I'm on the other side. Best of luck bud....

I like Celtics tonight. Got them at -2

[SlickRick1382]

Absolutely no defense to start. Hoping to hit it big in live betting asap.

[SlickRick1382]

Love live betting.

Under 60 1st Quarter cashed (although barely) but also jumped all over Under 105.5 for the 1H.

It was already down to 95.5 during the last timeout....

[slikec]

I hate live betting. I somehow almost always bet wrong

[meader99]

Lets hope not. I'm on the other side. Best of luck bud....

I like Celtics tonight. Got them at -2

Took the Heat +3. You want the push or you want me to take it?

[SlickRick1382]

Took the Heat +3. You want the push or you want me to take it?

Either works for me bud. So long as neither one of us loses, although looking tough atm

[meader99]

Either works for me bud. So long as neither one of us loses, although looking tough atm

Yeah, but based on how this series has gone thus far, this pace does not favor the Celts. I will be interested in seeing if the Celts have anything left in the tank come 4th quarter. Doc can't be happy with multiple layups off of made baskets.

[alamo]

Doc looks like he has decided to play the Heat at their own game with the hurry up offense. So far its working. Lets hope the Celts run out of gas but this is the playoffs and both teams will run on empty if they have to.

[Catchn_Picks]

Under 89 second half?

[alamo]

Celts playing as if they were the youngest team in the League. Full of energy and are taking it to the Heat. They may get over 100

[absolutkaos]

burned again... damn... it's unreal how different these teams play night to night....

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season

135 - 122 = +3.65x

NBA 2011-2012 Playoffs 6/1/2012 Recap

0 - 1 = -3.3x

NBA 2011-2012 Playoffs

20 - 17 = +5.85x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

154 - 139 = +9.5x

We'll get it back and then some chasing the under...GL

[Love The Action]

burned again... damn... it's unreal how different these teams play night to night....

That's why it's a chase on the under. Plus that was my first wager in this series. I'm probably going 7x on game 4 under. If that loses, I will reduce the chase to like 12x on game 5 under. Both my locals limit me at $5k per play, so I may need to split it over both books but I'm really not too worried because I know we will see one more under. My question is what number I should take. I don't want to take less than 181 but it's down to 180.5 despite the last two high scoring games. The books leaning under big time. GL....it's about to get stressful.

[dmitean]

Hope for you that Under hits in Game 4, because I really don't see any reason why it won't go Over in Miami.
Boston and Miami have great history of Over, both in last year's series in the playoffs with similar roster and in regular seasons as well.
You chose maybe the worst possible series to chase the Under, but I will be rooting for you, because I hope you won't waste your entire year's great work chasing that Under...

[Love The Action]

Hope for you that Under hits in Game 4, because I really don't see any reason why it won't go Over in Miami.
Boston and Miami have great history of Over, both in last year's series in the playoffs with similar roster and in regular seasons as well.
You chose maybe the worst possible series to chase the Under, but I will be rooting for you, because I hope you won't waste your entire year's great work chasing that Under...

Not too worried. I'm not the only informed investor playing the under. Last game I bet 181 and the Pinny closer is 177.5 despite 75% on the over. This game opened at Pinny at 182 and is already down to 180 despite 70% of what few bets that have come in being on the over. Sharp money understands the under is the play because of the previous results which are too far away from the mean. It is extremely unlikely for these teams to shoot over 50% three games in a row.

As far as this being "the worst possible series to chase the under" because of a great history of overs, that is just plain wrong. They have played 6 times this season and the o/u is 3-3. Not sure where you are getting this "great history of over" information.

Regardless, the percentages scream under here. I am a big boy and I understand the ramifications. Scared money don't make money and it's house money regardless. There are no guarantees, but I am quite confident that we see at least one more under in this series especially when it comes to the elimination games. There is risk involved, but my bankroll can easily absorb and manage that risk.

[Les_Nuts]

Just grabbed the under at 181, feel good about this one. We were only 10 points off pushing in a game with a 58 pt quarter

[Love The Action]

Just grabbed the under at 181, feel good about this one. We were only 10 points off pushing in a game with a 58 pt quarter

Best I can get is 180.5 right now. I really want at least 181. It's still early, I am hoping it goes back up a bit. I suspect this one will close in the 177 area again. Sharp money will be pounding the under.

[Vasco]

Best I can get is 180.5 right now. I really want at least 181. It's still early, I am hoping it goes back up a bit. I suspect this one will close in the 177 area again. Sharp money will be pounding the under.

Any fear that it dips below 180-180.5 and doesn't come back up?

[Love The Action]

Just grabbed the under at 181, feel good about this one. We were only 10 points off pushing in a game with a 58 pt quarter

Let's do it....just got 181

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Playoffs 6/2/2012

Play #1

Spurs/Thunder over (202) 2x (Locked)

Good luck.

NBA 2011-2012 Playoffs 6/3/2012

Play #1

Celtics/Heat under (181) 6x (Locked)

Going 6x now and maybe more later. Writeup to come. Good luck.

[Les_Nuts]

Let's do it....just got 181

Nice grab, I only managed to get 181 because my book doesn't adjust it's lines from the previous day until the evening. Please you guys were able to get it too, let's get rolling with the over tonight and under tommorrow

[Vasco]

Unfortunately, I only have 1 outlet and it's at 180....would you recommend waiting on 180.5 and maybe buying the half point to get 181? My fear is that this starts heading down below 180. Thanks for the input.

[MrXYZ]

I got the OKC/Spurs over 201.5, as luck would have it my book took it off the board soon after & posted 201.Seems to be a lot of under money in the last hour or so.

[Love The Action]

Nice grab, I only managed to get 181 because my book doesn't adjust it's lines from the previous day until the evening. Please you guys were able to get it too, let's get rolling with the over tonight and under tommorrow

I was hawking my local's open. My first option opened at 182 last night but I figured I would wait to see if it got better. That was a huge mistake and it dropped within 10 minutes. I went to bed and it was at 181.5 and when I woke up he had dropped all the way to 180.5. I knew my other local's website opens up in the early to mid morning, so I've been refreshing that page. That local's website opened at 181 before dropping to 180.5 right around when Legends came on the board at SBR odds. I had about a 15 minute window and capitalized. Now let's cash this ticket!

[Love The Action]

I got the OKC/Spurs over 201.5, as luck would have it my book took it off the board soon after & posted 201.Seems to be a lot of under money in the last hour or so.

Yeah, well there was a ton of under money yesterday when I bet the under at 181 and saw it close at 177.5. How did that work out? If I can lose after beating the closer by 3.5 points, then I can win if I lose to the closer by 1 point or so. Time to catch some breaks buddy.

[Love The Action]

Unfortunately, I only have 1 outlet and it's at 180....would you recommend waiting on 180.5 and maybe buying the half point to get 181? My fear is that this starts heading down below 180. Thanks for the input.

I don't think you can buy a half point on a total if you are going to make a big wager like 6x. If you are going to make a standard wager, then there is less impact. I can't really answer your question because I am not sure. I thought that we would get 183 with ease, but this number has steadily dropped. I suppose we will see a bump up when the public money hits, but there's been nothing but under money so far (early money is usually smarter money) despite 70% of all wagers on the over.

What I can say is that 180 is a playable number in this game. I would go big on 180 and above.

[Vasco]

Thanks...I think I'm gonna just take the 180 now and hope it doesn't hit 181 again. Hopefully we get a 87-80 kinda game and we don't have to worry.

[MrXYZ]

Yeah, well there was a ton of under money yesterday when I bet the under at 181 and saw it close at 177.5. How did that work out? If I can lose after beating the closer by 3.5 points, then I can win if I lose to the closer by 1 point or so. Time to catch some breaks buddy.

I'd be surprised if late money doesn't push it back to 202. Not too worried, it's over or no play for me in this situation. Good luck!

[Catchn_Picks]

That's why it's a chase on the under. Plus that was my first wager in this series. I'm probably going 7x on game 4 under. If that loses, I will reduce the chase to like 12x on game 5 under. Both my locals limit me at $5k per play, so I may need to split it over both books but I'm really not too worried because I know we will see one more under. My question is what number I should take. I don't want to take less than 181 but it's down to 180.5 despite the last two high scoring games. The books leaning under big time. GL....it's about to get stressful.

Gulp! And if you miss the 12X under chase?

[Love The Action]

Gulp! And if you miss the 12X under chase?

Yep...but that's the risk I am willing to take. In the playoffs, you have to play aggressive because of series play which is what gives you the advantage. I have the bankroll to withstand the hit without much pain which is why I can push the envelope to maximize my edge.