LTA's NBA Plays

[Notorious_Donk]

Lovin the plays today LTA. Lets have a big night!

[Notorious_Donk]

Guys to avoid the in game clutter that can occur when a game starts on LTA's thread (I'm as guilty as anyone), Im proposing (if its ok with LTA) to start a separate thread for every game that LTA has a trade on, approx 5/10mins before game time. Personally I enjoy posting some facts about the game (Fouls, stats etc as opposed to the Over is dead, the under is gone etc). Once the thread is created we can post our thoughts be they negative or postive to detour the unnecessary from his thread. At the end of the game we can get back to talking about future games in this thread again.

I wont always be able to do but if it proves successful Im sure others can continue to carry the mantle. I will leave it to LTA to decide if :-
1. It's annoying him that people are posting game thoughts during the game on his thread
and
2. If he would prefer that we create a separate thread where we discuss the ingame thoughts as it plays out.

On behalf of everyone, I want to say thank you to LTA for his amazing work. I wish there were more ways we could pay him back. I have learned so much this year from him. His models are staggeringly accurate.

Regards,
Alamo

Great idea. This thread can get cluttered, especially when we have trolls and negative nancy's in here trying to rip on us for choosing a certain play. When we create a game thread we could just post the name of it in LTA's thread so everyone knows to talk about the game in there. And once we hit the plays come back here to congratulate LTA on his nice work

[JM92]

Already missed such good lines tonight. Once again want to take not only the Under in Philly, but also the Sixers to cover. Already lost like 4 points total on the lines. Damn.

GL to all on LTA plays, was already on Raptors since last night with half a unit, now Im full on!

[talbotia]

Hey LTA! long time tailer and first time poster, just wanted to say thanks for all the picks.
have you ever thought about increasing the units on some of your picks that you think have more value?
i have tailed most of your plays but have managed to squeeze out a few extra units on bets of yours i think hold extra value.
For example the indian pacers/ Bulls under you posted the other day i placed 3 units on because i perceived it as having extra value.
I know you really like to stick to your system, which is working well, but i just think that increasing your bets to 2 or 3 units on picks you think hold extra value might increase your profits in the long run
KEEP IT UP!!!

[Les_Nuts]

Hey LTA! long time tailer and first time poster, just wanted to say thanks for all the picks.
have you ever thought about increasing the units on some of your picks that you think have more value?
i have tailed most of your plays but have managed to squeeze out a few extra units on bets of yours i think hold extra value.
For example the indian pacers/ Bulls under you posted the other day i placed 3 units on because i perceived it as having extra value.
I know you really like to stick to your system, which is working well, but i just think that increasing your bets to 2 or 3 units on picks you think hold extra value might increase your profits in the long run
KEEP IT UP!!!

He sometimes has 2x, 2.5x or 3x plays but they are not as common as 1x. Eg. Miami/Lakers under on Sunday was a 2x

He was talking about possibly increasing stake on Boston/Philly under but now the line has dropped so far I doubt that will happen

[rjp322]

Line already dropped to 176 on the Under of the philly game. Has to be a no play now right?

[Washington4skins]

To everyone who is so concerned about the abundance of nonsensical posts during games: I have an idea. Let's ignore the one or two stupid posters writing the game off in the first quarter. It isn't their fault the thread is full of muck, it is the eighteen replies to each of their ridiculous posts! LTA doesn't need a band of tough guys policing his thread all night. I'm way sicker of reading twenty unique responses to every idiotic post than I am of the idiots themselves. Just a thought...

[pacocn]

To everyone who is so concerned about the abundance of nonsensical posts during games: I have an idea. Let's ignore the one or two stupid posters writing the game off in the first quarter. It isn't their fault the thread is full of muck, it is the eighteen replies to each of their ridiculous posts! LTA doesn't need a band of tough guys policing his thread all night. I'm way sicker of reading twenty unique responses to every idiotic post than I am of the idiots themselves. Just a thought...

Spot on! We give em what they need attention. Ignore them they will find another thread that responds to their attention seeking responses.

[TC Woods]

Any consideration to the Milw/Bulls game? Line is +7 1/2 for the Bucks

Hamilton and Watson are out

http://espn.go.com/chicago/nba/story/_/id/7656417/chicago-bulls-rip-hamilton-cj-watson-vs-milwaukee-bucks

[pacocn]

T.C. i really like the Bucks in this spot and another poster
had a nice analysis for the over in this one. Bol

[rjp322]

Yeah definitely still like Bulls. Hamilton is useless anyways and Rose will just play more minutes tonight

[pokerwhiz90]

I put 3 units on the over for the bulls/milwaulkee game - this one goes into the 200's when rose and jennings are gonna light each other up

[Washington4skins]

Celts line just went to +7 at philadelphia on 5d. I know that philly is more athletic at nearly every position, but the celtics are notorious for playing up (and down) to their competition. I see the celts staying in this one and therefore I jumped on the key number of 7 while it's available. Anyone have thoughts?

[Washington4skins]

Celts line just went to +7 at philadelphia on 5d. I know that philly is more athletic at nearly every position, but the celtics are notorious for playing up (and down) to their competition. I see the celts staying in this one and therefore I jumped on the key number of 7 while it's available. Anyone have thoughts?

Line already back to 6.5, guess I wasn't the only one waiting for 7.

[Speedy88]

I think Phili blows them out by 10+ tonight.

[fitguy67]

to those wanting to know if a crappier number than the posted play calls for is "still ok"...

I'd recommend making a LINE-SHOPPING RULE (as to precisely how much "compromise" you are prepared to make vs. the posted play) and stick to it...doesn't really matter what the rule is, but after you've made it...stick to it...

mine is simple...i make NO compromises (i'll do as well as posted or better...never worse)..meaning i'll never "bite at" a number (ie. spread or a total) worse than posted (tho' if there's a bargain, i'll gladly take the nicer number...)...and more importantly i'll never take a price (aka. odds) that is worse than that posted...in a nutshell I get the posted play (with the posted [spread/total] number OR BETTER=NEVER WORSE at the posted price (usually -110 is implied) OR BETTER=NEVER WORSE

OVER THE HAUL if you follow this rule, win or lose on the "abandoned" or "missed" plays...you will do better overall...it's a simple extension of that great article on the pinny website LTA linked us up with not long ago (there the idea was to TRY TO ALWAYS beat the "closer" <not always="" possible="" cuz="" u="" don't="" know="" the="" closer,="" of="" course,="" when="" your="" shopping="">...here, i'm suggesting you ALWAYS beat the "poster"...<this is="" always="" possible...u="" just="" need="" to="" develop="" the="" discipline="" follow="" your="" "no="" compromise"="" rule...learn="" turn="" nose="" up="" at="" some="" plays="" simply="" because="" least="" of="" value="" seen="" by="" poster="" has="" evaporated="">

the "poster" is already doing his damndest to find value and "beat the closer"...so if u just insist on never doing worse than the poster lays out for us...you're " on the beach" (to coin an old expression)

following this rule means that about 20% of the time you can't "get in" on the action...you risk "missing out" on the win (or loss) and you definitely miss out on the "roller-coaster ride" <magnified by="" all="" the="" "nervous-nelly="" chicken-littles"="" and="" "premature="" high-fivers"="" that="" tend="" to="" clutter="" thread="" during="" game="">...but my sick left-brain-dominated mind has determined clearly it is -eV (ie. a bad practice) to accept a crappier deal than called for

You don't have to be as absolutist about this as me, tho'...you can decide beforehand EXACTLY HOW MUCH OF A COMPROMISE ON THE POSTED PLAY YOU ARE WILLING TO ACCEPT...decide it, then stick to it...eg...you'll insist on the -110 or better price...but will accept half-point on the spread/total number...OR...you'll not compromise on the spread/total number but you're willing to "pay" up to 10 tics <eg. -120="" on="" a="" posted="" -110er="">to "get in"...
I suggest to keep things sane...allow compromise on ONE of the elements of the bet (the "number" OR the "price) but hold fast to the other...makes it much easier to decide in real time whether to "pass or play" with what's on offer

If you're interested in the benefits of "line-shopping" discipline/rules, see page 166/post#5795 where i've laid out the mathematical benefits over the long-haul in technicolor.</eg.></magnified></this></not>

[rjp322]

I know what line shopping is but I cant do it. I use a local bookie where I get the choice of one line so therefore question is valid. Probably a no play for me now

[Washington4skins]

I think Phili blows them out by 10+ tonight.

Thanks for your thought, any reasons why or just your gut feeling?

[Pivotpoint]

Good luck LTA on your picks tonight. Hope you sweep. I never can tell which team is going to show up when it comes to the Sixers or the Celts. I was a little puzzled by the choice of the under on the PHI/BOS game. Lowest total on the board, as was the Hawks last night (Hawks from memory?) Obviously the "market" agrees with you, since they've drove the # down another basket. Seems odd, since action seems to be sitting around 50/50 on the total. Now I'm seeing the un 176 juiced at -115 ?

I'm much better on sides and still learning with totals. Sixers have been a under team with 70% of the last 10 going under. Boston on a streak of four straight overs. Series between the two on a streak of three unders. Everything cancels out , but I can't get past the fact this is the lowest total from memory in the series. Celtics had a UN 176 that cashed vs the Mavs on the road (2/20).

Haven't seen many Raptor games, but Rockets in a funk. Gl.

So far, I'm only on the Bulls tonight laying the 7 1/2. When I looked at the game last night, I thought for sure, with you being a Bulls fan, that you might pick the under in that game. The total of 195 seems high and is the highest total on a Bulls game in recent memory. CJ out and Rose prefers a half court game. Bulls -7 1/2 seems spot on using seasonal power ratings, but the Bulls are not only playing great, but have "owned" the Bucks. Books could be setting a trap on Bulls total, since the under is getting heavy play and really not showing much movement. Well, go Bulls and good luck tonight. You're having a great season and appreciate your efforts.

[Rolo1984]

I know what line shopping is but I cant do it. I use a local bookie where I get the choice of one line so therefore question is valid. Probably a no play for me now

it is really not a valid question. Since he tells you what number he has the game capped at. After this is is your choice. So you basically ask a question which he already answered.

[JM92]

I just jumped on Sixers - 6.0. Can't really play the under, only got it at 177 and juiced, then went to 176, now 176.5... to be fair and with further analysis along the day, I wouldn't be surprised if this goes over.

GL guys let's get the 3 plays regardless

[Speedy88]

I just jumped on Sixers - 6.0. Can't really play the under, only got it at 177 and juiced, then went to 176, now 176.5... to be fair and with further analysis along the day, I wouldn't be surprised if this goes over.

GL guys let's get the 3 plays regardless

Line dropped from 177 to 176 and it was juiced up? Probably means it goes under . Think of it like this, "what do the books want me to do?"

[fitguy67]

if the bookie has a "take it or leave it" quote...the logic of my suggestion remains...it advises simply to have a pre-packaged objectively-quantifiable definition of "good enough" to accept or not

[Pivotpoint]

Line dropped from 177 to 176 and it was juiced up? Probably means it goes under . Think of it like this, "what do the books want me to do?"

I don't know? Books just want you to bet. They balance the action and make money off the juice. Ideally, they have 50/50 on all price points and make 10%.

[Speedy88]

I don't know? Books just want you to bet. They balance the action and make money off the juice. Ideally, they have 50/50 on all price points and make 10%.

No doubt they want you to bet, but they also tempt people into taking certain sides, or staying away from certain sides. Just look at JM92, he got scared away because not only did they drop the line, but they juiced it up too. I can't remember, but didn't Pinny plays with juice over a certain amount (something like -120) hit at lik ea 63% rate?

[JM92]

I think this time you miss understood me Speedy. How and by the way, I see you guys play the Pinny regular lines as - 110, but here in portugal the Pinny line that is - 110 everywhere, is usually around -105 at pinny. So if it is - 120 at pinny, its pretty normal that it its 63% of the time.

But back to the point, I wasn't really scared of the juice. Why would I take a under 177 in a game that has opened at 179, specially when they are giving me only - 115? That's why I didn't play it and I would obviously not play it at 176 as well. Its not that I got scared, there's no value there. If I was extra confident, say, I would make a under 178 a double dime play, I could play one dime on an Under 176. But I'm not, I was merely tailing a guy that had it at 178. So now point on going for the 176.

Will play an Under live if I like it. Good luck on that one regardless guys

[JM92]

Thadeus Young is out. I think I got something in my asshole right now

This helps the under by the way!

[Speedy88]

I think this time you miss understood me Speedy. How and by the way, I see you guys play the Pinny regular lines as - 110, but here in portugal the Pinny line that is - 110 everywhere, is usually around -105 at pinny. So if it is - 120 at pinny, its pretty normal that it its 63% of the time.

But back to the point, I wasn't really scared of the juice. Why would I take a under 177 in a game that has opened at 179, specially when they are giving me only - 115? That's why I didn't play it and I would obviously not play it at 176 as well. Its not that I got scared, there's no value there. If I was extra confident, say, I would make a under 178 a double dime play, I could play one dime on an Under 176. But I'm not, I was merely tailing a guy that had it at 178. So now point on going for the 176.

Will play an Under live if I like it. Good luck on that one regardless guys

Totally understand bud. Good luck to you as well.

[dlunc3]

evan turner thinks he is in college again

[Pivotpoint]

I'll answer my own question.

Celtics are trash.

Nice call.

[JM92]

To be fair with you guys, even if these play goes through, I think we should start rethinking the unders with the Sixers. Have in mind I was also enticing that play and am not, at all, bashing LTA or anyone else.

The Sixers just seem to have finally got it. They need to outrun and outjump these kind of teams, actually every team. There's no absolute reason for a team with the best playmaker in the league (not named lebron of course) over 6'6, and a guy like turner who could just end up as an Igoudala type of player, to be almost last in the league in Pace.They gotta run and run hard! And they seem to be starting to understand it.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/7/2012

Play #1

Celtics/Sixers under (178) 1x (Locked)

Both qualitative and quantitative analysis points to the under. We have two top defenses, against two jump shooting offenses that are poor offensive rebounding teams, that play a slow half court pace. I have this game set at 174.5 giving us some nice value. Had I been able to get an early opener of 179.5, this would have been a multiple unit play. For now, I am rolling with the under for 1x with the possibility of adding to that stake before tip. Good luck.

Play #2

Raptors (+2) 1x (Locked)

This is a good spot to fade the majority and Im going to play the so-called "sharp" side in this one with the raptors as I think the books are tipping their hand opening houston at -1.5. A few days ago, houston beat toronto by 3 points as 9 5 faves. Standard adjustments should have the raptors as +3.5 dogs, but instead they open at +1.5. I think the books are enticing houston money with this short line. Houston is in a worse fatigue spot and coming off ot, which could explain some of this adjustment but not 2 full points from three days ago when these teams last played. The raptors have the better defense and have been an ats machine lately. I dont think we have a ton of value here, but I think we see a strong defensive effort with the raptors playing at home with revenge and I expect a toronto win. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the raptors for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Trail Blazers/Timberwolves under (195.5) 1x (Locked)

I expect both teams to make defensive adjustments in this game after love exploded and both teams shot so well a few days ago when this matchup sailed over the same total. That game was not played exceedingly fast at a 92 PACE but still went over because of some abnormally high shooting performances. Despite that game going over, the books did not adjust the total for this game in that direction. Both teams are top 12 in DEFF and play solid D. I think they will adjust enough to stop such great shooting performances. In addition, the ref asdignments are favorable to the under with mauer, et.al. I have this game set at 193 giving us two points of value but I also think the books are tipping their hand a bit in this one. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Knicks/Spurs over (201) 1x (Locked)

You should still have about 10 minutes if you like this play, but I couldn't post till now. I have this game set at 203.5 and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[Speedy88]

Nice looking card LTA!

[Hunner24]

Got it LTA! Bigger card tonight! Is it just a today thing, or are you feeling that your model is getting a better read as the season gets deeper?

[JM92]

On it.

First half overs must be hitting at a brutal percentage since all-star break. I would easily guess around 70-80. Unbelievable.