LTA's NBA Plays

[Love The Action]

To be fair with you guys, even if these play goes through, I think we should start rethinking the unders with the Sixers. Have in mind I was also enticing that play and am not, at all, bashing LTA or anyone else.

The Sixers just seem to have finally got it. They need to outrun and outjump these kind of teams, actually every team. There's no absolute reason for a team with the best playmaker in the league (not named lebron of course) over 6'6, and a guy like turner who could just end up as an Igoudala type of player, to be almost last in the league in Pace.They gotta run and run hard! And they seem to be starting to understand it.

To be fair, Philly's PACE over the last five games is 90.2. While that is faster than their season PACE of 89.9, it's not fast by much (only by .3). Consequently, I'm not so sure your observation is statistically accurate despite some close up TV shots of Collins urging his players to play at a faster pace. Furthermore, each game is taken on its own merits depending upon the relevant factors so to make a blanket statement like "no more Philly unders" is silly. Finally, I would argue that the recent Philly unders that did not cash had more to do with a regression in defense than anything else. Nevertheless, we all need to constantly adapt in this business and constantly adjust to how teams are playing while at the same time knowing that season-long sample sizes as to stats should still hold more weight. GL.

[jimmy007oc]

Dr.Love and his company don't know how to play Def

[eastern2]

Dr.Love and his company don't know how to play Def

didn't these two teams play last week or so and the final was 122-110?

[chief42]

To be fair, Philly's PACE over the last five games is 90.2. While that is faster than their season PACE of 89.9, it's not fast by much (only by .3). Consequently, I'm not so sure your observation is statistically accurate despite some close up TV shots of Collins urging his players to play at a faster pace. Furthermore, each game is taken on its own merits depending upon the relevant factors so to make a blanket statement like "no more Philly unders" is silly. Finally, I would argue that the recent Philly unders that did not cash had more to do with a regression in defense than anything else. Nevertheless, we all need to constantly adapt in this business and constantly adjust to how teams are playing while at the same time knowing that season-long sample sizes as to stats should still hold more weight. GL.

Well said LTA, that is why you are a consistent winner!

[JM92]

To be fair, Philly's PACE over the last five games is 90.2. While that is faster than their season PACE of 89.9, it's not fast by much (only by .3). Consequently, I'm not so sure your observation is statistically accurate despite some close up TV shots of Collins urging his players to play at a faster pace. Furthermore, each game is taken on its own merits depending upon the relevant factors so to make a blanket statement like "no more Philly unders" is silly. Finally, I would argue that the recent Philly unders that did not cash had more to do with a regression in defense than anything else. Nevertheless, we all need to constantly adapt in this business and constantly adjust to how teams are playing while at the same time knowing that season-long sample sizes as to stats should still hold more weight. GL.

I got your point bud, just have in mind I only said "rethink", not to stop with the Philly unders. Lets face it, for as good as they are defending, these game for instance could be ending around 200 points.

Btw, where do you get those "last 5 game" stats? Only know where to get them for the scoring/shooting basic statistics..

[my6sen]

damn look at porland game halhtime will be like 60 -60

[jimmy007oc]

we're till on Under. Hope they will slow it down

[my6sen]

well at right i really sure 0 -1 now

[Dave88]

Really need this Celtics/Sixers game to stay under 177

[apurvaas]

played 1st two games! missed last two! damn.. BOL to you all for all 4! taking MINN Portland 2nd U at 97.5, thats 17 points value from closing line

[Love The Action]

I got your point bud, just have in mind I only said "rethink", not to stop with the Philly unders. Lets face it, for as good as they are defending, these game for instance could be ending around 200 points.

Btw, where do you get those "last 5 game" stats? Only know where to get them for the scoring/shooting basic statistics..

http://www.nbastuffer.com/2011-2012_NBA_Regular_Season_Advanced_Stats.html

[Love The Action]

well at right i really sure 0 -1 now

[bmansell33]

Cash that under!

[Catchn_Picks]

Nice hit on Philly, LTA although it has to be the weirdest way to win the under I have seen in awhile.

[Dave88]

Really need this Celtics/Sixers game to stay under 177

..phew
cash it. Thanks LTA. I couldn't get 178.

[yankeekansan]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/7/2012

Play #1

Celtics/Sixers under (178) 1x (Locked)

Both qualitative and quantitative analysis points to the under. We have two top defenses, against two jump shooting offenses that are poor offensive rebounding teams, that play a slow half court pace. I have this game set at 174.5 giving us some nice value. Had I been able to get an early opener of 179.5, this would have been a multiple unit play. For now, I am rolling with the under for 1x with the possibility of adding to that stake before tip. Good luck.

How effing good is LTA? HE had the game set at 174.5... it hit 174! I didn't get in until it dropped to 177, but still played it with confidence. Thanks as always for your hard work.

[NaccAttack]

omg I thought for sure there would be a bullshit 3 at the end! nice hit.

[alamo]

Great call on the Philly LTA and Toronto finishing the fourth in style. NY\Spurs started real slow but they have it rolling now

[JM92]

http://www.nbastuffer.com/2011-2012_...ced_Stats.html

Thanks LTA.

Your like betting dad to me

[NOREGRETS]

Toronto lookin' good boys

[Catchn_Picks]

Toronto lookin' good boys

It takes a pair of cajones to post a play on Toronto!

[NOREGRETS]

LTA, other guys, what is your take on the GS / MEM over? 193. Game is at a pick, higher probability for OT... if needed.

[Love The Action]

Hey LTA! long time tailer and first time poster, just wanted to say thanks for all the picks.
have you ever thought about increasing the units on some of your picks that you think have more value?
i have tailed most of your plays but have managed to squeeze out a few extra units on bets of yours i think hold extra value.
For example the indian pacers/ Bulls under you posted the other day i placed 3 units on because i perceived it as having extra value.
I know you really like to stick to your system, which is working well, but i just think that increasing your bets to 2 or 3 units on picks you think hold extra value might increase your profits in the long run
KEEP IT UP!!!

That's what I do now. I am 8 - 2 this season on plays of 2x or more. My units are up to $450 per 1x so my scale is pretty much from 1x to 5x. I don't do the whole make-believe 50x plays some other guys around here. My largest play of the season to date was a 3x play which I won.

[NOREGRETS]

BAM!!!!!!!!!!!

INTERNET / -1	Ticket #: 16023543 Mar 07 06:13 PM	NBA	STRAIGHT BET [602] TOTAL u178-130 (B+1) (CELTICS (BOS) vrs 76ERS (PHA))	325 / 250	250	WIN WIN	03/07/2012 07:03 AM
INTERNET / -1	Ticket #: 16026077 Mar 07 06:13 PM	NBA	STRAIGHT BET [602] TOTAL u178-130 (B+1) (CELTICS (BOS) vrs 76ERS (PHA))	650 / 500	500	WIN WIN	03/07/2012 09:41 AM
INTERNET / -1	Ticket #: 16026083 Mar 07 06:13 PM	NBA	STRAIGHT BET [604] RAPTORS (TOR) +2-110	825 / 750	750	WIN WIN	03/07/2012 09:41 AM

[Dave88]

Nice call on the Raptors.
cheers LTA

[bmur714]

played 1st two games! missed last two! damn.. BOL to you all for all 4! taking MINN Portland 2nd U at 97.5, thats 17 points value from closing line

Im on the under too... Thanks

[Love The Action]

Got it LTA! Bigger card tonight! Is it just a today thing, or are you feeling that your model is getting a better read as the season gets deeper?

Just random. I play every game where I think I have an +EV edge. Sometimes I could have 6 or more plays and others just 1.

Might have a few more plays tonight I'm considering.

[XGamer]

Should I play 2nd for over sa/ny at 98.5 since I missed the start?

[mikea33]

Wat are the leans LTA?

[jimmy007oc]

Spurs 2nd Half line Open at 99, drop to 98.5 after 1min

[NOREGRETS]

Blazers slowing a bit. Need a low 4th... we are still in this

[NOREGRETS]

Spurs 2nd Half line Open at 99, drop to 98.5 after 1min

Mine dropped to 98 and I doubled up on the over... Hope I am not kicking myself later.

[h23jdmlude]

Thanks for the early picks LTA. I appreciate the work you put in for us here.

[Catchn_Picks]

Spurs 2nd Half line Open at 99, drop to 98.5 after 1min

Good value, imo.

Over 197.5 for the game...several points better than the game line.

Especially if you missed the play...good time to jump aboard.

[Love The Action]

Spurs 2nd Half line Open at 99, drop to 98.5 after 1min

Jimmy, are you a "glass half full" or "glass half empty" kind of guy? Judging by your posts, I would say the latter but you might just say you're a "realist." Such is life....

Good luck tonight