I had some time tonight to put together some proper writeups on a few plays I really like. I hope these writeups help you guys in some way. Please let me know your thoughts.
BULLS/PACERS OVER 187.5 5U
My first play of the day will be the over 187.5 in the Bulls/Ind game for 5 units (may add to this after checking out the ref assignments). Right now, I'm seeing about 53% of all bets on the over here but really no significant line movement since the line opened at 187.5. Bookmaker is currently putting out 188, but all other "sharp" books (e.g. Pinny, Greek, 5D, Matchbook, etc.) are holding steady at 187.5 with a slight juice to the over. Although the over will probably end up being a public play to the tune of about 60% or more of all bets by tip, I still really like this play for a number of reasons. In addition, I believe I will beat the closer as the line will probably close at 188 or more. If it was going to go down a lot, I think it would have already had a dip like the Dallas/Port game. At the worst, I don't see it going below 187. I have this game capped around 190 - 192, so I think we have some value here.
Here are the other reasons I like the over in the Bulls/Ind game (in no particular order):
Generally, I like to play unders in the playoffs way more than overs. In addition, I also like playing against the public. However, I cashed on the Knicks/Celtics over last night for some of the same reasons that I like the over here, and I think we see the same type of game (only more competitive). Let's hope we get the same result and the over 187.5 cashes. I will try to keep this thread updated with line movement and public betting trend changes before tip. Good luck if you are on the over as well.
DALLAS/PORTLAND UNDER 186.5 3.5U
The second game I like is the Dallas/Portland under. I currently have 3.5 units locked in at 186.5, but actually expect this line to go up a tad before it drops back down to this number or lower. I just didn't want to take any chances that I will miss the higher number and get stuck with something worse. Just like in the Bulls games, I may add units once the ref assignments come out (in the playoff, ref tendencies are amplified). This line opened up 187.5 and dropped to 186.5 at all sharp books. Early money hit the under big, but now we have about 60% of all bets on the over. These are the types of plays I really like (i.e. public on over, smart money on under).
Here is why I like the under here (in no particular order):
For the foregoing reasons, I like the under. A lot of the trends for both teams point over, but I just can't get over the slow pace in this series so far. We just need an average shooting day and the under should hit. As with the Bulls game, I may add units once the ref assignments are released. I will also try to keep line movement and public betting trends updated as well. Good luck on those playing the under in the Dallas/Portland game!
I may also have a play in the OKC/Den game and perhaps some small action in the Spurs game (I do love the action you know). I will also post my MLB plays for Saturday here if anyone is interested, but will not have time for writeups.
Good luck guys. Let me here from those playing opposite of me so I can understand your reasoning.
Thanks.
BULLS/PACERS OVER 187.5 5U
My first play of the day will be the over 187.5 in the Bulls/Ind game for 5 units (may add to this after checking out the ref assignments). Right now, I'm seeing about 53% of all bets on the over here but really no significant line movement since the line opened at 187.5. Bookmaker is currently putting out 188, but all other "sharp" books (e.g. Pinny, Greek, 5D, Matchbook, etc.) are holding steady at 187.5 with a slight juice to the over. Although the over will probably end up being a public play to the tune of about 60% or more of all bets by tip, I still really like this play for a number of reasons. In addition, I believe I will beat the closer as the line will probably close at 188 or more. If it was going to go down a lot, I think it would have already had a dip like the Dallas/Port game. At the worst, I don't see it going below 187. I have this game capped around 190 - 192, so I think we have some value here.
Here are the other reasons I like the over in the Bulls/Ind game (in no particular order):
- Assuming we get (i) 40 made free throws; (ii) 12 made three pointers; and (iii) a shooting percentage of 44% on 161 fg attempts, the game should hit 192 or more. These two teams shot very poorly in the last two games. Both teams shot 38% in the last game and neither shot better than 41% in game two. However, they have averaged around 161 fg attempts in these three games. If they merely shoot around 44% with the same number of attempts they have had over the last three games, this game should easily hit the 190's. I don't see these two teams -- especially a higher scoring team like the Pacers and a team in the Bulls who really picked up the scoring pace the last month of the season -- continue to shoot as poorly as they did in these last two games. Yes, they have both played tough defense, however, as I said, we only need these two teams to shoot about 44% on 161 attempts to cash this over. In addition, based on the previous games, it would be very easy for these two teams combine for the 12 made three pointers and the 40 made free throws we need to round out this formula.
- Indiana's back is against the wall. I really like that intangible here, and even though I think the Bulls win and probably cover, I believe Indiana will score 90-95 points in this game. They know they have to score to win this game because Rose will always be there to hit a clutch shot for the Bulls. I think Indiana will rise to the occasion in this elimination game and score at a pretty steady clip (but still lose).
- The total is set low for a game involving Indiana. Indiana only played 5 games all year that were set between 185 and 189.5, going 4-1 in favor of the over (they never played a game lower than this range). Generally, Indiana plays games into the 190's and 200's. On the Bulls side of things, even though the Bulls were one of the better under bets all year long, they hit the over 11 out 18 times when set in this range. Therefore, I believe we have an edge on the over here when the game is set in this range. As a side note, when the side is between 4-5.5, these teams went a combined 13-9 in favor of the over so that gives us another little factor to include here.
- A majority of the publicly available trends point over. Moreover, the trends that intertwine point over. For example, the Bulls generally play to the over against home winners and Pacers generally play to the over against road winners. Therefore, these trends intertwine and help reinforce our play on the over here.
Generally, I like to play unders in the playoffs way more than overs. In addition, I also like playing against the public. However, I cashed on the Knicks/Celtics over last night for some of the same reasons that I like the over here, and I think we see the same type of game (only more competitive). Let's hope we get the same result and the over 187.5 cashes. I will try to keep this thread updated with line movement and public betting trend changes before tip. Good luck if you are on the over as well.
DALLAS/PORTLAND UNDER 186.5 3.5U
The second game I like is the Dallas/Portland under. I currently have 3.5 units locked in at 186.5, but actually expect this line to go up a tad before it drops back down to this number or lower. I just didn't want to take any chances that I will miss the higher number and get stuck with something worse. Just like in the Bulls games, I may add units once the ref assignments come out (in the playoff, ref tendencies are amplified). This line opened up 187.5 and dropped to 186.5 at all sharp books. Early money hit the under big, but now we have about 60% of all bets on the over. These are the types of plays I really like (i.e. public on over, smart money on under).
Here is why I like the under here (in no particular order):
- These teams have played a really slow pace, but have shot abnormally high percentages to send the last two games over. They have only averaged about 142 attempts but both teams have consistently hit at or around 50% for field goal and three point attempts over the last two games. There's just no way that trend continues in Portland (at least I'm willing to be there's not). Even hitting at that great percentage, these two teams barely went over scoring 190 and 189 respective points in their last two games. All we need is for these two teams to shoot around that magic 44% number and we should have no problem cashing this under. At 44% shooting on a 142 attempts, we still have about 60 points to give between free throws and three pointers. I really like our chances that these two teams do not reach any of those numbers in this game. Will Jason Kidd really hit 3 of 6 three pointers like the first game or Wesley Matthews hit 4 of 6 three pointers like the second game? Possible, yes, but I'm willing to bet it doesn't happen.
- I expect a strong defensive game here. This is the most competitive first round series so far and I expect far more physical play than we saw in the last two games. I expect the likes of Chandler, Camby and Wallace to establish a defensive mindset from the outset. Assuming we get some under friendly refs that allow the ticky-tack stuff to fly, I think this game stays under.
- Much like the Bulls game, this total is set pretty low for these two teams (especially the Mavs who were a solid over bet until the last few weeks of the season. At this range between 185 and 189.5, the teams were a combined 23-13 for the over. However, the difference between this game and Bulls game is the slower pace played by the Mavs and Portland. We have only seen about 142 attempts per game in this series, while in the Bulls game they were chucking up around 162 attempts. That is a big difference and highlights why I like the over in the Bulls game and the under in this one.
For the foregoing reasons, I like the under. A lot of the trends for both teams point over, but I just can't get over the slow pace in this series so far. We just need an average shooting day and the under should hit. As with the Bulls game, I may add units once the ref assignments are released. I will also try to keep line movement and public betting trends updated as well. Good luck on those playing the under in the Dallas/Portland game!
I may also have a play in the OKC/Den game and perhaps some small action in the Spurs game (I do love the action you know). I will also post my MLB plays for Saturday here if anyone is interested, but will not have time for writeups.
Good luck guys. Let me here from those playing opposite of me so I can understand your reasoning.
Thanks.
No chance...