NC playoffs '11

[No coincidences]

POR -5 (3u)

[JR007]

I have them too.....i am glad the troll went on vacation...piece of crap

[BettingWizard]

IND +4.5 (2u)

[No coincidences]

Still not sure if I just got a good number or if it was a setup.

[JR007]

GAME THREE: DALLAS AT PORTLAND
Dallas leads 2-0
Vegas Line: Portland by 6, total of 186

Big jump here, as Dallas was favored by 5 and 4 at home to start the series. The line has moved 10-11 points from that because so many classic handicapping strategies point to Portland. The Blazers are a good team in a must-win situation...and are playing on a very strong home court. No way oddsmakers wanted to make it easy for you to back the Blazers. The total is in the range of the 186-184 we've seen already. The actual games landed on 170 and 190, making it tough to know which way the wind will blow. We'll think about the Under because that 190 was the result of 15 of 29 combined shooting on treys. Hard to expect something better than 50% repeating.
GAME TWO STATS
DALLAS 101, PORTLAND 89
Shooting Percentage: Portland 49%, Dallas 49%
Three-Pointers: Portland 7/14, Dallas 8/19
Free Throws: Portland 18/27, Dallas 19/26
Rebounds: Portland 37, Dallas 37
Turnovers: Portland 11, Dallas 6
Vegas Line: Dallas by 4, total of 184
Notebook: A very evenly matched boxscore, with Dallas being a little bit better on free throws and treys, and a lot better in the turnover department. Some veteran guards are doing a great job this year of cutting down on turnovers in early playoff action. And, Jason Kidd suddenly knows how to shoot! Dallas has lifted its game significantly from a stretch where they couldn't seem to beat any playoff caliber teams.
That being said, Dallas is also 18 of 38 from three-point land...and it's very hard to keep something like that going. More normal numbers would have led do a split in the Metroplex, and Portland being in control of the series with home court advantage the rest of the way. We're skeptical that Dallas can keep performing at such a high level. But, we will admit we underestimated the chance that Kidd and Peja Stojakovic would step forward with such authority in the series.

[No coincidences]

9-3, +5.7U

Adding:

POR 1H (-3) (2U)

[No coincidences]

9-3, +5.7U

Adding:

POR 1H (-3) (2U)

Ouch. Add another 1-point loss to my log.

9-4, +3.7U

[No coincidences]

Well, shit. Push. Better than a loss.

I also did a 2U bet on the 2H under, but didn't post it so it won't count.

9-4-1, +3.7U

[No coincidences]

At first blush, really liking the ORL/ATL and LAL/NO unders for Friday night. Not seeing anything side-wise, other than possibly ATL ML.

[davus4]

hey no coin, thanks for the picks!

i actually think the ORL@ATL will go Over because of the court switch, Orlando's competency at away games, and Atlanta being at home. (also it's a Friday night!, if that is a significant factor.) Orlando's the slightly better team and they will want to win this one but ATL is not going to let down. it's probably why the oddsmakers set the line at -1.5, i'm thinking... they will drive each other to score more. it'll be a back and forth battle. unless one team can actually blow the other out by 10 points it seems logical to take the Over. so many games in the playoffs seem to have gone Under but...
181 just seems kinda low for an average bball game in this situation. i used similar reasoning to predict the Over for the Heat/Sixers and Bulls/Pacers yesterday. (the latter didn't work out so well -- ) but the Mavs/Blazers did work out like this. (damn... why didn't i take that Over!??)

since this Total was released along with yesterday's group of games. i thought... why not Over for this game too?

[No coincidences]

Choked not locking in that LAL under. It's down to 181 now.

Still considering the ORL/ATL under.

LAL/NY ML parlay +138 (1U)

[No coincidences]

9-5-1, +2.7U

Knicks.

[No coincidences]

ATL +3.5 2H (1U)

Also think it'll go under the 90, but not playing it.

[Love The Action]

Why didn't you play the under in the Lakers game? It's a play from both a standard capping and line movement viewpoint. The only downside is the refs. I thought you would make this play and interested to hearing what scared you off.

I also played the Atlanta/ORL under and thought you would have been on that as well. However, I'm more interested in your thoughts on the Lakers game. Thanks and good luck.

[No coincidences]

Why didn't you play the under in the Lakers game? It's a play from both a standard capping and line movement viewpoint. The only downside is the refs. I thought you would make this play and interested to hearing what scared you off.

I also played the Atlanta/ORL under and thought you would have been on that as well. However, I'm more interested in your thoughts on the Lakers game. Thanks and good luck.

Moved too much. I couldn't get a good number at 180. The play was 184.

I think the Lakers win, but I don't know about covering.

[No coincidences]

Hawks can't close.

[No coincidences]

See what I mean, LTA?

O/U opened at 184, closed at 180.

With the 2H total, current pace is 182.5.

There will be a middle here.

[No coincidences]

9-6-1, +1.7U

Lose Hawks by 1.5.

[Love The Action]

I gotcha...I would have probably chanced it and played at 180 had I not locked it in this morning when I got to work at 184. It would have only been a one unit play, rather than the four units I have on it at 184.

Now, however, it looks as though the discussion will be moot because the over is looking strong right now. The pace and possessions are fine and basically what I expected. However, it's hard to cap two defensive minded teams shooting over 50% for three quarters. I mean, NO has impressed me on offense. I can understand the Lakers shooting a nice percentage because of Bynum's physical dominance. I just didn't think NO could hang for four quarters and would score around 85. I liked the game to go 95-85 Lakers. We'll see I guess.

[No coincidences]

I took the 2H under 89.5 small based on the 1H shooting percentages, but they keep making shots. Really surprised.

[Love The Action]

If you think about it, an over here in this game might not be such a bad thing. An over would allow for the oddsmakers to open this one up around 186 instead of 184. Those two points are really important in this matchup. If you've noticed, when these two teams go under, the line is set 185 or higher. When they go over, it's usually set lower than 185. Therefore, if they go over here, I am going to double my bet for the next game of the series. I just don't think the Hornets can shoot the lights out in back to back games. I had a big 15 unit bet on the under in game two of this series after the first game went over and cashed that one. I think we might see the same in game four if this one goes over.

[No coincidences]

A lot of FT's suddenly here in the past few minutes. Interesting.

[No coincidences]

There have been 13 free throws in the last 3 minutes of this game.

[No coincidences]

That's why you don't mess with an obvious line move in the NBA.

[Love The Action]

I hate losing plays by 1-3 points....the one thing that scared me about this play was the refs. They all basically favored the over in this matchup and that proved to be my downfall. I wish there was more consistency with foul calls. In the playoffs of a blow out game, they should not be calling iffy fouls. God those final few minutes were really frustrating.

Oh well, if we can get a Rodney Mott or another of the "under" refs, I will definitely be pounding the under in game four. Might even break an obvious rule of not buying points on total bets too. The difference between 186 and 188 in this series is HUGE and could very well be the difference between winning and losing. I've only bought points on totals twice in my life and won both. I will be very interested to see the opening line. I expect it to open at 186. What do you think?

[No coincidences]

DEN/OKC over 205 (3U)

Getting this now. I think it closes in the 206.5 range. I think Denver wins this game, but not sure on the -5.

Also lean Indy +4.5. Think I'll sit out MEM/SA and go big on the losing team; may do the same with the OKC/DEN game.

[No coincidences]

DAL +4 (2u)
DEN -4.5 (2u)
MEM -2 (1u)

[No coincidences]

Doubling up on Mavs.

DAL 2H +4.5 (2U)

[jgbgsox]

good luck bud, im on dallas also

[No coincidences]

good luck bud, im on dallas also

We'll see what happens. The fact that they're up 2 while being outscored and outshot 12-0 at the FT line is a good sign as long as the calls start balancing out.

[hawley]

Got the Mavs at +4.5 as well, into +2 at Pinny now

lets get it

[No coincidences]

3-2, -0.2U today
12-8-1, +1.5U playoffs

Had the Denver game all wrong. Cost me quite a bit (for me) outside of this thread.

Sunday:

NO/LAL under 183 (3U)
NO +5.5 (2U)
PHI +6 (1U)

I won't be around tomorrow, so everyone have a great Easter!

[No coincidences]

Adding two more units to NO +6 -- now a 4U play.

[SUPREME]

Hey Coin, I have NO in a teaser...but a bit nervous about it. What made you more confident about adding more units to that play?

[No coincidences]

3-2, -0.2U today
12-8-1, +1.5U playoffs

Had the Denver game all wrong. Cost me quite a bit (for me) outside of this thread.

Sunday:

NO/LAL under 183 (3U)
NO +5.5 (2U)
PHI +6 (1U)

I won't be around tomorrow, so everyone have a great Easter!

Adding two more units to NO +6 -- now a 4U play.

3-0, +8U today
15-8-1, +9.5U playoffs