HEAT is the play tomorrow

[sweetjones55]

That game should be next to irrelevant to the books.

Why would the biggest game of the night between two of the NBA's elite be irrelevant to the books? There will be a ton of money poured in on this game. They better be worried about this game.

[t-wizzle]

The game from late November. Orlando isn't even the same team anymore and Miami has since improved.

Also, that game was a revenge game for the Magic. The books were lickin their chops when they made that line because EVERYONE was on Miami after the way they destroyed Orlando in the first matchup. All I'm saying is that nothing from that game should serve as a reference. The line was what it was in that game for a reason, but now all those situational factors have changed.

Tell me this: What do you think the line should be for this game?

[sweetjones55]

The game from late November. Orlando isn't even the same team anymore and Miami has since improved.

Also, that game was a revenge game for the Magic. The books were lickin their chops when they made that line because EVERYONE was on Miami after the way they destroyed Orlando in the first matchup. All I'm saying is that nothing from that game should serve as a reference. The line was what it was in that game for a reason, but now all those situational factors have changed.

Tell me this: What do you think the line should be for this game?

The line should be right around Heat -2. The thing is that this line probably won't entice equal action so that is why the books can't make the line what it SHOULD be.

[Joe Sharp]

[CK]

Definitely agree with this play, liking Heat ML right now, currently +108 at Pinny. Might hold off until tomorrow to make this bet.

Slightly off-topic - has anyone else who uses Pinny noticed that often, underdog moneylines on Pinny get bigger closer to game time? I've noticed this even when the spread is showing opposite movement (ie. line either getting heavier juice or line movement towards the favorite).

I've gotten a worse line a few times now on Pinny taking MLs on underdogs either the night before, and the line moves up at game time. I know this is a generalization and many things can occur:
- ppl think underdog has less chance to win as gametime approaches, natural movement
- moneyline bettors are often different from point spread bettors (which may explain why dog ML increases even tho point spread is moving the other way)

That being said, I still think it's possible that pinny gives lower ml dog lines early and moves them up closer to game time (all things being equal)... I dunno, maybe I'm on crazy pills... Anyways, like Heat here.

[Erock87]

I'm using this as an opportunity to make a large move in building my roll prior to the Superbowl.

Dropping ~7% of the roll on the Heat...thanks SJ!

[lakerboy]

WOw. 5k on the HEat. Good luck.

[sweetjones55]

WOw. 5k on the HEat. Good luck.

Thanks LB

[HustleGetPaid]

Like the play, best of luck...

[jtorre28]

Love it thanks for the hard work !!!!

[suicidekings]

To me, the critical point you mentioned regards 3 point shooting. The Magic depend so heavily on their perimeter shooting and Miami is going to contest every shot. I like this play a lot SJ. Already played the Heat ML earlier today. Good luck tomorrow.

[sweetjones55]

To me, the critical point you mentioned regards 3 point shooting. The Magic depend so heavily on their perimeter shooting and Miami is going to contest every shot. I like this play a lot SJ. Already played the Heat ML earlier today. Good luck tomorrow.

Ya Heat defend the 3 better than anyone in the NBA, the chance of Orlando living by the 3 this game should be really unlikely.

[pm4e]

good luck with the play tomorrow!

[cleaveland]

You haven't considered one important factor: the refs. Is that not important?

[nulldah]

liked it as well. heat at + points is always value

[sweetjones55]

You haven't considered one important factor: the refs. Is that not important?

No not really. I worry more about refs when they highly favor the road teams than the home teams.

[sweetjones55]

“The simple fact that it’s a division opponent, that means a lot,” James said. “Trying to win your division is very key, and also playing exceptionally well on the road is definitely key. That definitely helps later on in the season. And being an Orlando team that basically said a lot of things about us in the offseason, that definitely adds a little bit to the fire.”

[bonduforlife]

Ill tag along with my boy Lebron

[sweetjones55]

Ill tag along with my boy Lebron

I almost always fade the Heat and my favorite player LeBron too but not tomorrow night. Let's get it.

[bretb27]

should i wait for the moneyline on miami or should i hit it hard now? I hate laying the juice but i have a feeling it'll be about a pick em at tip off.

[mtxj30]

sj55 youre one of my favorite guys to tail, too bad i have no $ in my account . im saving up for some betphoenix cash

[sweetjones55]

should i wait for the moneyline on miami or should i hit it hard now? I hate laying the juice but i have a feeling it'll be about a pick em at tip off.

I'd take it right now, I really see this line going to PK. You can still get a pretty nice +ML at most books.

[MJ_6rings]

Hey SJ, you like Under 196 in the Heat/Magic game?

[sweetjones55]

Hey SJ, you like Under 196 in the Heat/Magic game?

No opinion.

[pittmatt80]

Yeah I like the Heat tomorrow as well. Good Luck to All

[Ace_of_Spades]

Good Luck SJ.

[Domestic]

Great day of NBA tomorrow

[BetterBizness]

Some Very rough notes... Orl is 6-1 in their past 7 @ home in Jan, but ALL teams <.500 .. Last team >.500 NYK (Dec 30, 2010)

In those games, just 1 (Tor) did they won more then 2Q's in a game ...

Throw Toronto blowout game out for skewing stats - in the 6 other games, (24 Q's)

Orlando has won just 10Q's, 4/24 in Double Digits
(Recent last)
GS - 3Q(17) - 4Q(12)
Mil - 1Q(8) - 2Q(6)
Hou - 2Q(4) - 3Q(18)
Phi - 4Q(7)
Tor - 1Q(8) - 3Q(10) - 4Q(24)
Det - 4Q(3)
Cle - 1Q(16) - 3Q (3)

Miami on Road in January (4-4) - With 5 teams >.500 with 2 of those games without James (Den Blowout) + Chi

Throw out Denver Game for Blowout Skew - of 7 games (28Q) - 15 Q's won -
(Recent first)
OKC - 2Q(6) - 4Q(4)
NYK - 1Q(1) - 2Q(1) - 3Q(7)
Chi - 2Q (14)
Den - 4Q (2)
LAC - 2Q(8) - 3Q(2) - 4Q(2)
Por - 1Q(1) - 2Q(1) - 4Q(2)
Mil - 1Q(12)
Cha - 2Q(19) - 3Q(15)

Do what you want with these if you find them exciting in any way, but I take alot of this as the Heat generally win better than their fair share of Quarters on the road in particular, and despite their 4 game Road Slide after the 17 straight with 2 sans Bron Bron... Now they are playing an Orlando Team which hasn't playing anyone meaningful at home in over a month, and despite winning their games, don't win alot of quarters against bad teams (10/24) ...

Add to this all the stuff Lyons and Jones posted about personally wanting this game...

Making a rather large'ish move tonight +2 (-113)... think I may also take some of these quarter stats and toss a lean into the 1Q or 1H as well...

[ukcatzfan11]

This is a TRAP game. The magic have alot of pure shooters on their team all it takes is 1 to heat up and next thing you know they are lighting up the scoreboard. Im gonna stay away because you dont know what magic team will show up or even which heat team will show up. It will be alot closer then people think. But GL im not gonna play it.

[ukcatzfan11]

Hey SJ, you like Under 196 in the Heat/Magic game?

Leaning torwards the over. The first meeting was only 166 but that was early in the year and the second game was 199 total and i think both teams put up point so im leaning torwards the over.

[MJ_6rings]

This is a TRAP game. The magic have alot of pure shooters on their team all it takes is 1 to heat up and next thing you know they are lighting up the scoreboard. Im gonna stay away because you dont know what magic team will show up or even which heat team will show up. It will be alot closer then people think. But GL im not gonna play it.

Great idea.. if you feel that a game is a trap game, DO NOT bet on it.. just watch and enjoy the game.. but it's fukking hard for me to watch a game when I don't have a wager on it..

[JMobile]

My only play for tomorrow.
I'm sure it will go to PK by game time.

[SunzT]

I love the Heat tomorrow too. Took 'em with my book at +1, I'm sure it'll be a pick 'em come game time. I'm also leaning Heat first quarter, just waiting for the line to come out!

[MJ_6rings]

Squares/public is on the Heat.. Hmmm...

[ukcatzfan11]

Squares/public is on the Heat.. Hmmm...

This is why the books make money haha.