Attempting to model NBA over/unders

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  • ManBearPig
    SBR MVP
    • 12-04-08
    • 2473

    #141
    Originally posted by Buried_PIRATE
    Yup. Definitely cut down on the number of plays... As I tracked my results I noticed that when I was under 2 pts in my predictions it was just flipping a coin there. IE losing whatever edge I get from modeling. For instances todays CHI@MEM game I come up with between 187-189... line is 187.5 @ JoAnna... I'll give you the SAC@ATL game as an under BOL to you guys
    This is exactly what I noticed as well and why I put in a filter for that lower bound - 3pts seems to be a good number here from what I've seen. I also noticed that a number margin too large can be a bad thing too and account for it but I haven't settled on anything yet.
    Comment
    • Buried_PIRATE
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 12-28-10
      • 546

      #142
      Talk about an under day... looks that damn MLK curse is true!

      Either way, I wonder if CHAR@PHI can even cover the over with OT!!!
      Comment
      • ManBearPig
        SBR MVP
        • 12-04-08
        • 2473

        #143
        Originally posted by Buried_PIRATE
        Talk about an under day... looks that damn MLK curse is true! Either way, I wonder if CHAR@PHI can even cover the over with OT!!!
        Dam, Nope not even OT could help us...188 and needed 189.5+...bummer. How did I have this going over.
        Comment
        • CNega
          SBR Rookie
          • 11-07-09
          • 12

          #144
          Thank you! 3/4 today with your picks. Keep up the great work1
          Comment
          • Buried_PIRATE
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 12-28-10
            • 546

            #145
            Originally posted by Buried_PIRATE
            TOR@NO / Line: 193 **Playing Over**
            5Day: 204
            YTD: 197
            GRADE: LOSS

            MIL@HOU / Line: 193 **Playing Over**
            5Day: 205
            YTD: 195
            GRADE: LOSS

            SAC@ATL / Line: 201 **Playing Under**
            5Day: 207
            YTD: 196
            GRADE: WIN

            CHAR@PHI / Line: 189 **Playing Over**
            5Day: 200
            YTD: 193
            GRADE: LOSS

            NJN@GS / Line: 205 [UNDER though very close to a no play... will be a game time decision based on line]
            5Day: 211
            YTD: 200
            GRADE: LOSS
            Curse of MLK... all of my overs went under 1-4 on the day. Will keep on grinding the two games tomorrow at prob around 6 PMish..

            53-41 on the year
            Comment
            • CNega
              SBR Rookie
              • 11-07-09
              • 12

              #146
              wow I totally read your initial 1/17 totals wrong. I ended up betting under for Phila/Cha and ended up choosing a totally different game (Utah/Washington) and lost on your Houston/Milwaukee game, so I ended up with 2 extra wins instead of 2 more losses. Purely luck on my part.
              Comment
              • Buried_PIRATE
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 12-28-10
                • 546

                #147
                Originally posted by CNega
                wow I totally read your initial 1/17 totals wrong. I ended up betting under for Phila/Cha and ended up choosing a totally different game (Utah/Washington) and lost on your Houston/Milwaukee game, so I ended up with 2 extra wins instead of 2 more losses. Purely luck on my part.
                Haha ... I saw your post and was like damn you faded me!

                I actually thought you might have gotten a better line on CHAR game, which we lost by 1 pt and my initial lean on one of the other games I changed at the last minute but went from right to wrong... dammit.

                Either way, glad it worked out for you and I'm looking forward to getting back in the black
                Comment
                • Dark Horse
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 12-14-05
                  • 13764

                  #148
                  You hit the ground running at 21-11 (page 2, where you and I both felt a correction was in the works), and are now 53-41. That's 32-30 since the opening salvo, suggesting model may already have leveled out. Hopefully not, but possible.
                  Comment
                  • Buried_PIRATE
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 12-28-10
                    • 546

                    #149
                    Originally posted by Dark Horse
                    You hit the ground running at 21-11 (page 2, where you and I both felt a correction was in the works), and are now 53-41. That's 32-30
                    since the opening salvo, suggesting model may already have leveled out. Hopefully not, but possible.
                    Sadly I agree. The following day after 21-11, I hit a 1-5 day which allowed me to realize I needed filters (most of those games had point totals above 209 which almost always come up UNDER). Following yesterday after the slightly unusual afternoon games I came up 1-4. If those days are anomalies I am on a respectable 30-21.

                    However, I won't make excuses for bad days. I will keep running this model (with slight corrections).

                    I am also working on new ideas, but sadly I've been too busy to really get into it. Right now I do have a lot of data to back test (over 90 games) and I wonder if I could back test my data to fit a model that does better than where I am at (57ish %)

                    Either way I hope u keep contributing, keeps me thinking. Sadly I need to follow bball much much closer... I'm a baseball guy

                    EDIT: For instance I am not even looking at btb games yet, which obviously has SOME effect. Other ideas are also always appreciated
                    Comment
                    • Buried_PIRATE
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 12-28-10
                      • 546

                      #150
                      CHAR@CHI / Line: 183 **Playing Over**
                      YTD: 187

                      Trying a new model where I predict the score for each team...

                      Came up with:
                      Bulls: 102
                      Char: 86

                      That total comes out to 188... will be rolling with that tonight

                      BOL
                      Comment
                      • ManBearPig
                        SBR MVP
                        • 12-04-08
                        • 2473

                        #151
                        The best thing would be to get a database going back 5 yrs or so and start using that to find some correlations do some regressions and back test. These typically cost money but they are worth it and should pay for themselves in the long run. I have some sites saved off at home but a quick google search will yield the same results probably too. The benefit of having everything in a database to query what your heart desires is very powerful. Also I think if you had some more data to run through, even if it is past data, you could still get a better feel.

                        I would suspect each season isn't always the same so what works this season may not work next or did not work last. Getting a better understanding of these things is something I want to spend some more time on because there could be value there. I don't want to get so wrapped up on the short term results that I lose the ability to adapt long term.

                        However, you can't travel a road that isn't built so I'm looking at this season as building a foundation and then working on improving it from there. As I understand things better and get more and more defined parameters I'll be able to make better improvements.
                        Comment
                        • Buried_PIRATE
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 12-28-10
                          • 546

                          #152
                          Originally posted by Buried_PIRATE
                          CHAR@CHI / Line: 183 **Playing Over**
                          YTD: 187
                          GRADE: Loss
                          Updated
                          Comment
                          • Buried_PIRATE
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 12-28-10
                            • 546

                            #153
                            Been running bad lately 1 Win in past 6... signs of fading... I'm not sure. Plays I'm on tonight:

                            UTA@NJN / Line: 192
                            Model: 177 / Under

                            PHI@ORL / Line: 200
                            Model: 195 / Under

                            DET@BOS / Line: 191
                            Model: 197 / Over

                            MEM@NO / Line: 184.5
                            Model: 189 / Over

                            WAS@MIL / Line: 189
                            Model: 182 / Under

                            BOL on your plays

                            53-42 from 12/28
                            Comment
                            • sickpicks
                              SBR Rookie
                              • 01-17-11
                              • 42

                              #154
                              Originally posted by Buried_PIRATE
                              Been running bad lately 1 Win in past 6... signs of fading... I'm not sure. Plays I'm on tonight:

                              UTA@NJN / Line: 192
                              Model: 177 / Under

                              PHI@ORL / Line: 200
                              Model: 195 / Under

                              DET@BOS / Line: 191
                              Model: 197 / Over

                              MEM@NO / Line: 184.5
                              Model: 189 / Over

                              WAS@MIL / Line: 189
                              Model: 182 / Under

                              BOL on your plays

                              53-42 from 12/28
                              I like three plays and good luck with others two plays
                              Comment
                              • Buried_PIRATE
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 12-28-10
                                • 546

                                #155
                                Not chasing... but I also took:

                                POR@SAC / Line: 195.5
                                Model: 191 / Under
                                Comment
                                • ManBearPig
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 12-04-08
                                  • 2473

                                  #156
                                  I think you have something that will win in the long-term as long as you stay with it and constantly...I did have a question about the regression modeling. I don't develop my lines through regression testing but I'm playing around with it.

                                  I just have a question about the dependent variable and what values your using. I've ran it using the set line, but don't know if that's the best way to do it. I've back tested it for a couple days and it's not very good for predicting a line but it is close to the set number. I'm pretty sure I'm using it incorrectly so just wondering if you had any suggestions there.
                                  Comment
                                  • madmiek
                                    SBR Sharp
                                    • 11-04-10
                                    • 433

                                    #157
                                    good job.
                                    Comment
                                    • Buried_PIRATE
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 12-28-10
                                      • 546

                                      #158
                                      Originally posted by sickpicks
                                      I like three plays and good luck with others two plays
                                      Wow tough past couple days. Dammit.

                                      WAS@MIL was a tough loss going down by 1...

                                      UTA@NJN was going to hit but then we got crushed with fouls in garbage time... either way... day could end okay we'll see :/
                                      Comment
                                      • Buried_PIRATE
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 12-28-10
                                        • 546

                                        #159
                                        Originally posted by ManBearPig
                                        I think you have something that will win in the long-term as long as you stay with it and constantly...I did have a question about the regression modeling. I don't develop my lines through regression testing but I'm playing around with it.

                                        I just have a question about the dependent variable and what values your using. I've ran it using the set line, but don't know if that's the best way to do it. I've back tested it for a couple days and it's not very good for predicting a line but it is close to the set number. I'm pretty sure I'm using it incorrectly so just wondering if you had any suggestions there.
                                        I created a variable, total team points, which I calculated as the average game score for each team. I then regress that versus other variables of interest.

                                        If you come up with a formula that you use lmk and we can discuss.
                                        Comment
                                        • ManBearPig
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 12-04-08
                                          • 2473

                                          #160
                                          Thanks...I generate quite a few numbers based off different stats so I'll play around with it and see what I come up with.

                                          Also, if you want a little more accuracy or something else to play around with may I suggest calculating each teams PF/PA at home and on the road. Those numbers are very helpful to have along with the average total as well, I actually don't use the average total but probably should.
                                          Comment
                                          • Buried_PIRATE
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 12-28-10
                                            • 546

                                            #161
                                            We go 3-3 last night, will post the grades a bit later. 2 of the wins I pegged as unders also went into OT and held up... so maybe a sign of positive things to come.

                                            Either way, total record goes to 56-45... not quite where I want to be, but still positive which is always good
                                            Comment
                                            • ready-set-tilt
                                              SBR Rookie
                                              • 01-20-11
                                              • 35

                                              #162
                                              This is a great thread, I am a long-time lurker who felt obligated to post a thank you for putting in all the hard work. It seems like the model has slowed down a bit lately, but it may just be a cold streak. As long as you keep improving it, you should be able to stay positive for the long term. I think the idea of inserting a variable for referees may be a way to gain a hidden advantage. Good luck!
                                              Comment
                                              • ManBearPig
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 12-04-08
                                                • 2473

                                                #163
                                                So I've been playing around with regression in my model and I think I've found a correlation that has relevance, well actually two I just can't decide which to use but they are close so I don't think it matters.

                                                Looking at tonight I've calculated. These are not just the regression numbers but does include them. Looks like POR/LAC is the best play so of course it will go way under. I don't want to hi-jack your thread but just thought I'd share what I came up with tonight. I will probably be incorporating a B2B and a 5/10 day number to try and incorporate as well, but I want to give this a run first.

                                                1/20/2011 Charlotte/Philadelphia
                                                Predicted: 186.78

                                                1/20/2011 Chicago/Dallas
                                                Predicted: 180.55

                                                1/20/2011 Portland/L A Clippers
                                                Predicted: 203.44
                                                Comment
                                                • Buried_PIRATE
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 12-28-10
                                                  • 546

                                                  #164
                                                  Hey, definitely not hijacking.

                                                  I forgot I won't be home till after 8 tonight, so I will have a prediction for the late game but not the first 2. BOL on the plays
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Buried_PIRATE
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 12-28-10
                                                    • 546

                                                    #165
                                                    POR@LAC / Line: 194.5
                                                    Model: 197 / Over

                                                    56-45 YTD
                                                    Comment
                                                    • joanapoker
                                                      Restricted User
                                                      • 12-09-08
                                                      • 2275

                                                      #166
                                                      nice call yesterday!
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Buried_PIRATE
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 12-28-10
                                                        • 546

                                                        #167
                                                        Originally posted by Buried_PIRATE
                                                        POR@LAC / Line: 194.5
                                                        Model: 197 / Over
                                                        Total: 201
                                                        Grade: WIN
                                                        57-45

                                                        Originally posted by joanapoker
                                                        nice call yesterday!
                                                        Haha after the slump I was in, I will enjoy that winner!

                                                        More games to cap today

                                                        BOL to you guys
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Buried_PIRATE
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 12-28-10
                                                          • 546

                                                          #168
                                                          Originally posted by Buried_PIRATE

                                                          POR@SAC / Line: 195.5
                                                          Model: 191 / Under
                                                          GRADE: Win

                                                          UTA@NJN / Line: 192
                                                          Model: 177 / Under
                                                          GRADE: Loss

                                                          PHI@ORL / Line: 200
                                                          Model: 195 / Under
                                                          GRADE: Win

                                                          DET@BOS / Line: 191
                                                          Model: 197 / Over
                                                          GRADE: Loss

                                                          MEM@NO / Line: 184.5
                                                          Model: 189 / Over
                                                          GRADE: Win

                                                          WAS@MIL / Line: 189
                                                          Model: 182 / Under
                                                          GRADE: Loss
                                                          Updated the play grades from 2 nights ago

                                                          Record is 57-45
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Buried_PIRATE
                                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                                            • 12-28-10
                                                            • 546

                                                            #169
                                                            Plays for tonight boys, hot off the presses. Record going in is 57-45

                                                            DET@NJN / Line: 190.5
                                                            Model: 186 / Under

                                                            MIL@CLE / Line: 189
                                                            Model: 182 / Under

                                                            NO@ATL / Line: 184.5
                                                            Model: 193 / Over

                                                            UTA@BOS / Line: 194
                                                            Model: 200 / Over

                                                            HOU@MEM / Line: 205.5
                                                            Model: 203 / Under
                                                            Comment
                                                            • joanapoker
                                                              Restricted User
                                                              • 12-09-08
                                                              • 2275

                                                              #170
                                                              Also playing the Under at Cleveland

                                                              I'll probably tail that Under at Memphis!

                                                              Gl tonight pirate
                                                              Comment
                                                              • sickpicks
                                                                SBR Rookie
                                                                • 01-17-11
                                                                • 42

                                                                #171
                                                                i like this one

                                                                DET@NJN / Line: 190.5
                                                                Model: 186 / Under
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Buried_PIRATE
                                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                                  • 12-28-10
                                                                  • 546

                                                                  #172
                                                                  59-48 going into today

                                                                  BOS@WAS / Line: 191
                                                                  Model: 195.6 / Over

                                                                  ATL@CHAR / Line: 185
                                                                  Model: 190.5 / Over

                                                                  CLE@CHI / Line: 191.5
                                                                  Model: 196.7 / Over

                                                                  SA@NO / Line: 185.5
                                                                  Model: 194.8 / Over
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • joanapoker
                                                                    Restricted User
                                                                    • 12-09-08
                                                                    • 2275

                                                                    #173
                                                                    I'm also on the Over at Wash.

                                                                    Careful with Overs at Chicago! Powerful defense!
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • chino_09
                                                                      SBR Hustler
                                                                      • 01-17-11
                                                                      • 61

                                                                      #174
                                                                      BOS@WAS / Line: 191
                                                                      Model: 195.6 / Over


                                                                      Loving this pick. 7 out of last 9 games for Boston have gone Over. Washington's Nick Young has been red hot too. Great matchups in this one: Rondo/Wall, Blatche/KG.....

                                                                      BOL to us!!

                                                                      Not so sure about the Over for the CLE/CHI game, Pirate. But gl to u regardless!!
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Buried_PIRATE
                                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                                        • 12-28-10
                                                                        • 546

                                                                        #175
                                                                        Originally posted by joanapoker
                                                                        I'm also on the Over at Wash. Careful with Overs at Chicago! Powerful defense!
                                                                        Originally posted by chino_09
                                                                        BOS@WAS / Line: 191 Model: 195.6 / Over Loving this pick. 7 out of last 9 games for Boston have gone Over. Washington's Nick Young has been red hot too. Great matchups in this one: Rondo/Wall, Blatche/KG..... BOL to us!! Not so sure about the Over for the CLE/CHI game, Pirate. But gl to u regardless!!
                                                                        BOL to us
                                                                        Comment
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