Attempting to model NBA over/unders

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  • sickpicks
    SBR Rookie
    • 01-17-11
    • 42

    #176
    Originally posted by Buried_PIRATE
    ATL@CHAR / Line: 185
    Model: 190.5 / Over
    i lean under here

    BoL
    Comment
    • Buried_PIRATE
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 12-28-10
      • 546

      #177
      Originally posted by sickpicks
      i lean under here

      BoL
      You have been doing pretty well for yourself lately... probably a good under lean.

      I think the CLE@CHI game should also be a lean under as well...

      Going to stick with ATL but CLE@CHI is a no play now for me
      Comment
      • ManBearPig
        SBR MVP
        • 12-04-08
        • 2473

        #178
        havent seen much activity here lately...is the experiment over?
        Comment
        • Buried_PIRATE
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 12-28-10
          • 546

          #179
          Originally posted by ManBearPig
          havent seen much activity here lately...is the experiment over?
          Helll no.

          Just been busy with work.

          The model needs a bit of tinkering for sure -- I'm going to try to post an update tomorrow. Thanks for keeping a look out though, knowing other ppl are interested is another motivation as well as winning
          Comment
          • ManBearPig
            SBR MVP
            • 12-04-08
            • 2473

            #180
            Originally posted by Buried_PIRATE
            Helll no. Just been busy with work. The model needs a bit of tinkering for sure -- I'm going to try to post an update tomorrow. Thanks for keeping a look out though, knowing other ppl are interested is another motivation as well as winning
            Gotcha...Ive been away from here as well but hadn't seen any emails from the thread so I thought I'd check up. I've been tweaking mine as well but need to let it ride for a while so I can get an idea of how it plays. I would like to backtest with a previous year but i'm going to have to re-write a bunch of queries for that. I've been reading a book called conquering risk that gives some insight on how to develop a model among other good pieces of info...highly recommend.
            Comment
            • echowilbury
              SBR Hustler
              • 12-28-10
              • 59

              #181
              Originally posted by Buried_PIRATE
              Helll no.

              Just been busy with work.

              The model needs a bit of tinkering for sure -- I'm going to try to post an update tomorrow. Thanks for keeping a look out though, knowing other ppl are interested is another motivation as well as winning


              Missed your leans the last couple days bro. keep up the good fight
              Comment
              • Buried_PIRATE
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 12-28-10
                • 546

                #182
                Originally posted by echowilbury


                Missed your leans the last couple days bro. keep up the good fight
                Thanks I expect to be back by the weekend. Kind of sick now, just resting up :/
                Comment
                • VTranX
                  SBR MVP
                  • 02-02-10
                  • 1975

                  #183
                  come on! i craze your models lol/
                  Comment
                  • Pherst
                    SBR High Roller
                    • 01-31-11
                    • 163

                    #184
                    G'day Pirate,

                    Been watching your picks with interest over the past few weeks and thought I better sign up to the forums.
                    Just wondering if you're still going to run them or have you moved on to a new project?

                    Cheers
                    Comment
                    • ready-set-tilt
                      SBR Rookie
                      • 01-20-11
                      • 35

                      #185
                      Must have given up after 1 month and didn't bother to tell us...Buried_Pirate, what a joke!
                      Comment
                      • Buried_PIRATE
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 12-28-10
                        • 546

                        #186
                        Hey there!

                        I'm back

                        Either way, my record before hiatus was 60-50 (I believe). Not bad for a first, rough attempt. I think we can definitely do better though! I hope.

                        I wrote a couple macros which will also make updating games and my model a bit easier on me (which in the past has take a lot of time).

                        Since I do not effectively know how to model BTB I am going to try to stay away from games like that and games where there are key injuries.

                        Moving forward, the games tonight:

                        PHI@NJ / Line: 188
                        Range: 189-197
                        Prediction: 192 / Over

                        TOR@ATL / Line: 201.5
                        Range: 195-203
                        Prediction: 198 / Under

                        IND@CLE / Line: 202
                        Range: 194-202
                        Prediction: 197 / Under

                        MIL@PHO / Line: 199
                        Range: 194-203
                        Prediction: 197 / Under

                        So... picking up where we left off

                        60-50 YTD
                        Comment
                        • Buried_PIRATE
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 12-28-10
                          • 546

                          #187
                          3-1 on my return... will update totals later tonight.

                          No plays tonight but I will have some tomorrow
                          Comment
                          • Buried_PIRATE
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 12-28-10
                            • 546

                            #188
                            So we rocked a 3-1 return 63-51 YTD

                            Plays for tonight:

                            CHI@GSW / Line: 204
                            Model: 197 / Under

                            LAL/NO / Line: 191
                            Model: 194 / Over

                            BOL on your plays guys
                            Comment
                            • Buried_PIRATE
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 12-28-10
                              • 546

                              #189
                              2-0 tonight baby! make love to your loved ones!!

                              65-51 f. yes

                              5-1 since my triumphant return fade if you dare
                              Comment
                              • Buried_PIRATE
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 12-28-10
                                • 546

                                #190
                                The lines and the model are pretty close today...

                                IND/NJN / Line: 195.5
                                Model: 194

                                ORL@BOS / Line: 192
                                Model: 195

                                LAC@MIA / Line: 203
                                Model: 201

                                Use the info it helps... for my record I am playing the over on ORL@BOS... others are no plays .. BOL

                                65-51
                                Comment
                                • ready-set-tilt
                                  SBR Rookie
                                  • 01-20-11
                                  • 35

                                  #191
                                  He's back! I am sorry for ever doubting you
                                  Comment
                                  • Buried_PIRATE
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 12-28-10
                                    • 546

                                    #192
                                    Originally posted by ready-set-tilt
                                    He's back! I am sorry for ever doubting you
                                    Yessir. It's empire building time
                                    Comment
                                    • Vinotinto
                                      SBR Rookie
                                      • 08-21-10
                                      • 46

                                      #193
                                      Originally posted by Buried_PIRATE
                                      The lines and the model are pretty close today...

                                      IND/NJN / Line: 195.5
                                      Model: 194

                                      ORL@BOS / Line: 192
                                      Model: 195

                                      LAC@MIA / Line: 203
                                      Model: 201

                                      Use the info it helps... for my record I am playing the over on ORL@BOS... others are no plays .. BOL

                                      65-51
                                      I know you said you'll only play ORL@BOS but so far the other two games were effective... IND 105-86 NJ | LAC 79-97 MIA Well done..

                                      Do you mind sharing some details from your model so we can work on it and help you improve it?

                                      Kind regars BOL
                                      Comment
                                      • Buried_PIRATE
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 12-28-10
                                        • 546

                                        #194
                                        Model goes 0-1, the leans were good! Oh well. Happens

                                        65-52 YTD

                                        ----------------------

                                        Sure thing. Right now I use a regression approach to come up with a total score for each team. The model is based off of team efficiency.

                                        The model takes into account the teams Offensive and Defensive efficiency for their last 5 games (2 components) and then the teams home/away efficiency (depending on if they are home and then away).

                                        I currently do NOT take into account back to back games (and try to avoid predicting them). Injuries are also a problem.

                                        I get my data daily from NBAstuffer.com... my model is in excel and I wrote a couple macros so I just need to copy and paste the latest data in to my spreadsheet and I'm good to go. A lot more effective than how I initially started.

                                        If you have any tips / see some flaws / other factors to consider definitely let me know. I know there are definitely areas to improve and models to back test -- the key is putting in the time to find the sweet spot.
                                        Comment
                                        • Buried_PIRATE
                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                          • 12-28-10
                                          • 546

                                          #195
                                          CHI@POR / Line: 182.5
                                          Model: 189 /O

                                          LAL@MEM / Line: 195
                                          Model: 197 /O

                                          CLE@DAL / Line: 204
                                          Model: 197 /U

                                          BOL on your plays... 65-52 ytd
                                          Comment
                                          • Buried_PIRATE
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 12-28-10
                                            • 546

                                            #196
                                            2-1 last night... goes to 67-53

                                            BOL on your plays boys

                                            Stay frosty
                                            Comment
                                            • Buried_PIRATE
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 12-28-10
                                              • 546

                                              #197
                                              67-53 YTD...

                                              Plays tonight

                                              SA@DET / Line: 188
                                              Model: 198 / Over

                                              MEM@OKC / Line: 205.5
                                              Model: 199 / Under

                                              IND@MIA / Line: 200
                                              Model: 197 / Under
                                              Comment
                                              • Buried_PIRATE
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 12-28-10
                                                • 546

                                                #198
                                                So tilted

                                                Lose by .5 pt in OT! Tilted. I am so not frosty.

                                                1-2

                                                68-54

                                                *grumble*

                                                worst loss since Durant gave the coach the ball
                                                Comment
                                                • Buried_PIRATE
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 12-28-10
                                                  • 546

                                                  #199
                                                  Back on the block again... 68-54 YTD

                                                  MIL@WAS / Line: 185.5
                                                  Model: 193 / Over

                                                  CHI@UTA / Line: 194.5
                                                  Model: 192 / Under

                                                  SA@TOR / Line: 200.5
                                                  Model: 203 / Over
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Buried_PIRATE
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 12-28-10
                                                    • 546

                                                    #200
                                                    2-1, missed the perfect 3-0 by 1/2 a point

                                                    70-55 on the year

                                                    stay frosty boys.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Buried_PIRATE
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 12-28-10
                                                      • 546

                                                      #201
                                                      I just wanted to post that I like to crush it guys. Idk you about you, but lately I been crushing.

                                                      10-6 since I came back (not bad considering IMO we got unlucky) (70-55 ytd)

                                                      Either way no plays tonight and this weekend I am heading to AC but I still might be down to try to get some plays up.

                                                      Stay frosty
                                                      Comment
                                                      • WHATaTEASE
                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                        • 02-07-11
                                                        • 157

                                                        #202
                                                        Post asap! BoL all...
                                                        Comment
                                                        • BetterBizness
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 05-20-06
                                                          • 5737

                                                          #203
                                                          like a Wendy's Frostie?
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Buried_PIRATE
                                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                                            • 12-28-10
                                                            • 546

                                                            #204
                                                            Originally posted by BetterBizness
                                                            like a Wendy's Frostie?
                                                            Do you know of another kid of frosty son? Yessir nothing but Wendy for me.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • ready-set-tilt
                                                              SBR Rookie
                                                              • 01-20-11
                                                              • 35

                                                              #205


                                                              Its from Call of Duty...i hope the Wendy's frosty line was a joke
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Buried_PIRATE
                                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                                • 12-28-10
                                                                • 546

                                                                #206
                                                                K. Let's crush it tonight boys.

                                                                MIA@DET / Line: 191
                                                                Model: 195 / Over

                                                                MIL@MEM / Line: 184
                                                                Model: 189 / Over

                                                                70-55. BOL ON UR PLAYS.

                                                                Stay frosty
                                                                Comment
                                                                • sickpicks
                                                                  SBR Rookie
                                                                  • 01-17-11
                                                                  • 42

                                                                  #207
                                                                  Originally posted by Buried_PIRATE
                                                                  MIA@DET / Line: 191
                                                                  Model: 195 / Over
                                                                  glad to cu on the same side
                                                                  i like MIL@MEM under. GL pirate
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • flyer1179
                                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                                    • 12-11-10
                                                                    • 136

                                                                    #208
                                                                    Originally posted by Buried_PIRATE
                                                                    MIL@MEM / Line: 195
                                                                    Model: 189 / Under

                                                                    Think you have a typo there, line is 184 or less everywhere I look. Just an FYI.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Buried_PIRATE
                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                      • 12-28-10
                                                                      • 546

                                                                      #209
                                                                      Originally posted by flyer1179
                                                                      Think you have a typo there, line is 184 or less everywhere I look. Just an FYI.
                                                                      Sorry guys. Should have been an over play. The line was also 184. Thanks for bringing it to my attention.

                                                                      I had done the modeling last night and transferred it over wrong. Thank you.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Buried_PIRATE
                                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                                        • 12-28-10
                                                                        • 546

                                                                        #210
                                                                        Originally posted by sickpicks
                                                                        glad to cu on the same side
                                                                        i like MIL@MEM under. GL pirate
                                                                        Good luck man! MIL@MEM definitely looks like an under, but I am getting a good read from the model. In that range it has usually been reliable... either way BOL
                                                                        Comment
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