Attempting to model NBA over/unders

[sickpicks]

ATL@CHAR / Line: 185
Model: 190.5 / Over

i lean under here

BoL

[Buried_PIRATE]

i lean under here

BoL

You have been doing pretty well for yourself lately... probably a good under lean.

I think the CLE@CHI game should also be a lean under as well...

Going to stick with ATL but CLE@CHI is a no play now for me

[ManBearPig]

havent seen much activity here lately...is the experiment over?

[Buried_PIRATE]

havent seen much activity here lately...is the experiment over?

Helll no.

Just been busy with work.

The model needs a bit of tinkering for sure -- I'm going to try to post an update tomorrow. Thanks for keeping a look out though, knowing other ppl are interested is another motivation as well as winning

[ManBearPig]

Helll no. Just been busy with work. The model needs a bit of tinkering for sure -- I'm going to try to post an update tomorrow. Thanks for keeping a look out though, knowing other ppl are interested is another motivation as well as winning

Gotcha...Ive been away from here as well but hadn't seen any emails from the thread so I thought I'd check up. I've been tweaking mine as well but need to let it ride for a while so I can get an idea of how it plays. I would like to backtest with a previous year but i'm going to have to re-write a bunch of queries for that. I've been reading a book called conquering risk that gives some insight on how to develop a model among other good pieces of info...highly recommend.

[echowilbury]

Helll no.

Just been busy with work.

The model needs a bit of tinkering for sure -- I'm going to try to post an update tomorrow. Thanks for keeping a look out though, knowing other ppl are interested is another motivation as well as winning

Missed your leans the last couple days bro. keep up the good fight

[Buried_PIRATE]

Missed your leans the last couple days bro. keep up the good fight

Thanks I expect to be back by the weekend. Kind of sick now, just resting up :/

[VTranX]

come on! i craze your models lol/

[Pherst]

G'day Pirate,

Been watching your picks with interest over the past few weeks and thought I better sign up to the forums.
Just wondering if you're still going to run them or have you moved on to a new project?

Cheers

[ready-set-tilt]

Must have given up after 1 month and didn't bother to tell us...Buried_Pirate, what a joke!

[Buried_PIRATE]

Hey there!

I'm back

Either way, my record before hiatus was 60-50 (I believe). Not bad for a first, rough attempt. I think we can definitely do better though! I hope.

I wrote a couple macros which will also make updating games and my model a bit easier on me (which in the past has take a lot of time).

Since I do not effectively know how to model BTB I am going to try to stay away from games like that and games where there are key injuries.

Moving forward, the games tonight:

PHI@NJ / Line: 188
Range: 189-197
Prediction: 192 / Over

TOR@ATL / Line: 201.5
Range: 195-203
Prediction: 198 / Under

IND@CLE / Line: 202
Range: 194-202
Prediction: 197 / Under

MIL@PHO / Line: 199
Range: 194-203
Prediction: 197 / Under

So... picking up where we left off

60-50 YTD

[Buried_PIRATE]

3-1 on my return... will update totals later tonight.

No plays tonight but I will have some tomorrow

[Buried_PIRATE]

So we rocked a 3-1 return 63-51 YTD

Plays for tonight:

CHI@GSW / Line: 204
Model: 197 / Under

LAL/NO / Line: 191
Model: 194 / Over

BOL on your plays guys

[Buried_PIRATE]

2-0 tonight baby! make love to your loved ones!!

65-51 f. yes

5-1 since my triumphant return fade if you dare

[Buried_PIRATE]

The lines and the model are pretty close today...

IND/NJN / Line: 195.5
Model: 194

ORL@BOS / Line: 192
Model: 195

LAC@MIA / Line: 203
Model: 201

Use the info it helps... for my record I am playing the over on ORL@BOS... others are no plays .. BOL

65-51

[ready-set-tilt]

He's back! I am sorry for ever doubting you

[Buried_PIRATE]

He's back! I am sorry for ever doubting you

Yessir. It's empire building time

[Vinotinto]

The lines and the model are pretty close today...

IND/NJN / Line: 195.5
Model: 194

ORL@BOS / Line: 192
Model: 195

LAC@MIA / Line: 203
Model: 201

Use the info it helps... for my record I am playing the over on ORL@BOS... others are no plays .. BOL

65-51

I know you said you'll only play ORL@BOS but so far the other two games were effective... IND 105-86 NJ | LAC 79-97 MIA Well done..

Do you mind sharing some details from your model so we can work on it and help you improve it?

Kind regars BOL

[Buried_PIRATE]

Model goes 0-1, the leans were good! Oh well. Happens

65-52 YTD

----------------------

Sure thing. Right now I use a regression approach to come up with a total score for each team. The model is based off of team efficiency.

The model takes into account the teams Offensive and Defensive efficiency for their last 5 games (2 components) and then the teams home/away efficiency (depending on if they are home and then away).

I currently do NOT take into account back to back games (and try to avoid predicting them). Injuries are also a problem.

I get my data daily from NBAstuffer.com... my model is in excel and I wrote a couple macros so I just need to copy and paste the latest data in to my spreadsheet and I'm good to go. A lot more effective than how I initially started.

If you have any tips / see some flaws / other factors to consider definitely let me know. I know there are definitely areas to improve and models to back test -- the key is putting in the time to find the sweet spot.

[Buried_PIRATE]

CHI@POR / Line: 182.5
Model: 189 /O

LAL@MEM / Line: 195
Model: 197 /O

CLE@DAL / Line: 204
Model: 197 /U

BOL on your plays... 65-52 ytd

[Buried_PIRATE]

2-1 last night... goes to 67-53

BOL on your plays boys

Stay frosty

[Buried_PIRATE]

67-53 YTD...

Plays tonight

SA@DET / Line: 188
Model: 198 / Over

MEM@OKC / Line: 205.5
Model: 199 / Under

IND@MIA / Line: 200
Model: 197 / Under

[Buried_PIRATE]

So tilted

Lose by .5 pt in OT! Tilted. I am so not frosty.

1-2

68-54

*grumble*

worst loss since Durant gave the coach the ball

[Buried_PIRATE]

Back on the block again... 68-54 YTD

MIL@WAS / Line: 185.5
Model: 193 / Over

CHI@UTA / Line: 194.5
Model: 192 / Under

SA@TOR / Line: 200.5
Model: 203 / Over

[Buried_PIRATE]

2-1, missed the perfect 3-0 by 1/2 a point

70-55 on the year

stay frosty boys.

[Buried_PIRATE]

I just wanted to post that I like to crush it guys. Idk you about you, but lately I been crushing.

10-6 since I came back (not bad considering IMO we got unlucky) (70-55 ytd)

Either way no plays tonight and this weekend I am heading to AC but I still might be down to try to get some plays up.

Stay frosty

[WHATaTEASE]

Post asap! BoL all...

[BetterBizness]

like a Wendy's Frostie?

[Buried_PIRATE]

like a Wendy's Frostie?

Do you know of another kid of frosty son? Yessir nothing but Wendy for me.

[ready-set-tilt]

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=stay+frosty

Its from Call of Duty...i hope the Wendy's frosty line was a joke

[Buried_PIRATE]

K. Let's crush it tonight boys.

MIA@DET / Line: 191
Model: 195 / Over

MIL@MEM / Line: 184
Model: 189 / Over

70-55. BOL ON UR PLAYS.

Stay frosty

[sickpicks]

MIA@DET / Line: 191
Model: 195 / Over

glad to cu on the same side
i like MIL@MEM under. GL pirate

[flyer1179]

MIL@MEM / Line: 195
Model: 189 / Under

Think you have a typo there, line is 184 or less everywhere I look. Just an FYI.

[Buried_PIRATE]

Think you have a typo there, line is 184 or less everywhere I look. Just an FYI.

Sorry guys. Should have been an over play. The line was also 184. Thanks for bringing it to my attention.

I had done the modeling last night and transferred it over wrong. Thank you.

[Buried_PIRATE]

glad to cu on the same side
i like MIL@MEM under. GL pirate

Good luck man! MIL@MEM definitely looks like an under, but I am getting a good read from the model. In that range it has usually been reliable... either way BOL