Originally posted by Buried_PIRATE
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i lean under here
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You have been doing pretty well for yourself lately... probably a good under lean.Originally posted by sickpicksi lean under here
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I think the CLE@CHI game should also be a lean under as well...
Going to stick with ATL but CLE@CHI is a no play now for meComment -
havent seen much activity here lately...is the experiment over?Comment -
Helll no.Originally posted by ManBearPig
Just been busy with work.
The model needs a bit of tinkering for sure -- I'm going to try to post an update tomorrow. Thanks for keeping a look out though, knowing other ppl are interested is another motivation as well as winning
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Gotcha...Ive been away from here as well but hadn't seen any emails from the thread so I thought I'd check up. I've been tweaking mine as well but need to let it ride for a while so I can get an idea of how it plays. I would like to backtest with a previous year but i'm going to have to re-write a bunch of queries for that. I've been reading a book called conquering risk that gives some insight on how to develop a model among other good pieces of info...highly recommend.Originally posted by Buried_PIRATEHelll no. Just been busy with work. The model needs a bit of tinkering for sure -- I'm going to try to post an update tomorrow. Thanks for keeping a look out though, knowing other ppl are interested is another motivation as well as winning Comment -
Originally posted by Buried_PIRATEHelll no.
Just been busy with work.
The model needs a bit of tinkering for sure -- I'm going to try to post an update tomorrow. Thanks for keeping a look out though, knowing other ppl are interested is another motivation as well as winning
Missed your leans the last couple days bro. keep up the good fightComment -
Thanks I expect to be back by the weekend. Kind of sick now, just resting up :/Originally posted by echowilbury
Missed your leans the last couple days bro. keep up the good fightComment -
come on! i craze your models lol/Comment -
G'day Pirate,
Been watching your picks with interest over the past few weeks and thought I better sign up to the forums.
Just wondering if you're still going to run them or have you moved on to a new project?
Cheers
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Must have given up after 1 month and didn't bother to tell us...Buried_Pirate, what a joke!Comment -
Hey there!
I'm back
Either way, my record before hiatus was 60-50 (I believe). Not bad for a first, rough attempt. I think we can definitely do better though! I hope.
I wrote a couple macros which will also make updating games and my model a bit easier on me (which in the past has take a lot of time).
Since I do not effectively know how to model BTB I am going to try to stay away from games like that and games where there are key injuries.
Moving forward, the games tonight:
PHI@NJ / Line: 188
Range: 189-197
Prediction: 192 / Over
TOR@ATL / Line: 201.5
Range: 195-203
Prediction: 198 / Under
IND@CLE / Line: 202
Range: 194-202
Prediction: 197 / Under
MIL@PHO / Line: 199
Range: 194-203
Prediction: 197 / Under
So... picking up where we left off
60-50 YTDComment -
3-1 on my return... will update totals later tonight.
No plays tonight but I will have some tomorrowComment -
So we rocked a 3-1 return 63-51 YTD
Plays for tonight:
CHI@GSW / Line: 204
Model: 197 / Under
LAL/NO / Line: 191
Model: 194 / Over
BOL on your plays guys
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2-0 tonight baby! make love to your loved ones!!
65-51 f. yes
5-1 since my triumphant return
fade if you dare 
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The lines and the model are pretty close today...
IND/NJN / Line: 195.5
Model: 194
ORL@BOS / Line: 192
Model: 195
LAC@MIA / Line: 203
Model: 201
Use the info it helps... for my record I am playing the over on ORL@BOS... others are no plays .. BOL
65-51Comment -
He's back! I am sorry for ever doubting youComment -
Yessir. It's empire building timeOriginally posted by ready-set-tilt
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I know you said you'll only play ORL@BOS but so far the other two games were effective... IND 105-86 NJ | LAC 79-97 MIA Well done..Originally posted by Buried_PIRATE
Do you mind sharing some details from your model so we can work on it and help you improve it?
Kind regars BOL
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Model goes 0-1, the leans were good! Oh well. Happens
65-52 YTD
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Sure thing. Right now I use a regression approach to come up with a total score for each team. The model is based off of team efficiency.
The model takes into account the teams Offensive and Defensive efficiency for their last 5 games (2 components) and then the teams home/away efficiency (depending on if they are home and then away).
I currently do NOT take into account back to back games (and try to avoid predicting them). Injuries are also a problem.
I get my data daily from NBAstuffer.com... my model is in excel and I wrote a couple macros so I just need to copy and paste the latest data in to my spreadsheet and I'm good to go. A lot more effective than how I initially started.
If you have any tips / see some flaws / other factors to consider definitely let me know. I know there are definitely areas to improve and models to back test -- the key is putting in the time to find the sweet spot.Comment -
CHI@POR / Line: 182.5
Model: 189 /O
LAL@MEM / Line: 195
Model: 197 /O
CLE@DAL / Line: 204
Model: 197 /U
BOL on your plays... 65-52 ytdComment -
2-1 last night... goes to 67-53
BOL on your plays boys
Stay frostyComment -
67-53 YTD...
Plays tonight
SA@DET / Line: 188
Model: 198 / Over
MEM@OKC / Line: 205.5
Model: 199 / Under
IND@MIA / Line: 200
Model: 197 / UnderComment -
So tilted
Lose by .5 pt in OT! Tilted. I am so not frosty.
1-2
68-54
*grumble*
worst loss since Durant gave the coach the ball
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Back on the block again... 68-54 YTD
MIL@WAS / Line: 185.5
Model: 193 / Over
CHI@UTA / Line: 194.5
Model: 192 / Under
SA@TOR / Line: 200.5
Model: 203 / OverComment -
2-1, missed the perfect 3-0 by 1/2 a point
70-55 on the year
stay frosty boys.Comment -
I just wanted to post that I like to crush it guys. Idk you about you, but lately I been crushing.
10-6 since I came back (not bad considering IMO we got unlucky) (70-55 ytd)
Either way no plays tonight and this weekend I am heading to AC but I still might be down to try to get some plays up.
Stay frostyComment -
Post asap! BoL all...Comment -
like a Wendy's Frostie?Comment -
Do you know of another kid of frosty son? Yessir nothing but Wendy for me.Originally posted by BetterBizness
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Its from Call of Duty...i hope the Wendy's frosty line was a jokeComment -
K. Let's crush it tonight boys.
MIA@DET / Line: 191
Model: 195 / Over
MIL@MEM / Line: 184
Model: 189 / Over
70-55. BOL ON UR PLAYS.
Stay frosty
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glad to cu on the same sideOriginally posted by Buried_PIRATE
i like MIL@MEM under. GL pirateComment -
Originally posted by Buried_PIRATE
Think you have a typo there, line is 184 or less everywhere I look. Just an FYI.Comment -
Sorry guys. Should have been an over play. The line was also 184. Thanks for bringing it to my attention.Originally posted by flyer1179
I had done the modeling last night and transferred it over wrong. Thank you.Comment -
Good luck man! MIL@MEM definitely looks like an under, but I am getting a good read from the model. In that range it has usually been reliable... either way BOLOriginally posted by sickpicksglad to cu on the same side
i like MIL@MEM under. GL pirate
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