You have been doing pretty well for yourself lately... probably a good under lean.
I think the CLE@CHI game should also be a lean under as well...
Going to stick with ATL but CLE@CHI is a no play now for me
Comment
ManBearPig
SBR MVP
12-04-08
2473
#178
havent seen much activity here lately...is the experiment over?
Comment
Buried_PIRATE
SBR Wise Guy
12-28-10
546
#179
Originally posted by ManBearPig
havent seen much activity here lately...is the experiment over?
Helll no.
Just been busy with work.
The model needs a bit of tinkering for sure -- I'm going to try to post an update tomorrow. Thanks for keeping a look out though, knowing other ppl are interested is another motivation as well as winning
Comment
ManBearPig
SBR MVP
12-04-08
2473
#180
Originally posted by Buried_PIRATE
Helll no. Just been busy with work. The model needs a bit of tinkering for sure -- I'm going to try to post an update tomorrow. Thanks for keeping a look out though, knowing other ppl are interested is another motivation as well as winning
Gotcha...Ive been away from here as well but hadn't seen any emails from the thread so I thought I'd check up. I've been tweaking mine as well but need to let it ride for a while so I can get an idea of how it plays. I would like to backtest with a previous year but i'm going to have to re-write a bunch of queries for that. I've been reading a book called conquering risk that gives some insight on how to develop a model among other good pieces of info...highly recommend.
Comment
echowilbury
SBR Hustler
12-28-10
59
#181
Originally posted by Buried_PIRATE
Helll no.
Just been busy with work.
The model needs a bit of tinkering for sure -- I'm going to try to post an update tomorrow. Thanks for keeping a look out though, knowing other ppl are interested is another motivation as well as winning
Missed your leans the last couple days bro. keep up the good fight
Comment
Buried_PIRATE
SBR Wise Guy
12-28-10
546
#182
Originally posted by echowilbury
Missed your leans the last couple days bro. keep up the good fight
Thanks I expect to be back by the weekend. Kind of sick now, just resting up :/
Comment
VTranX
SBR MVP
02-02-10
1975
#183
come on! i craze your models lol/
Comment
Pherst
SBR High Roller
01-31-11
163
#184
G'day Pirate,
Been watching your picks with interest over the past few weeks and thought I better sign up to the forums.
Just wondering if you're still going to run them or have you moved on to a new project?
Cheers
Comment
ready-set-tilt
SBR Rookie
01-20-11
35
#185
Must have given up after 1 month and didn't bother to tell us...Buried_Pirate, what a joke!
Comment
Buried_PIRATE
SBR Wise Guy
12-28-10
546
#186
Hey there!
I'm back
Either way, my record before hiatus was 60-50 (I believe). Not bad for a first, rough attempt. I think we can definitely do better though! I hope.
I wrote a couple macros which will also make updating games and my model a bit easier on me (which in the past has take a lot of time).
Since I do not effectively know how to model BTB I am going to try to stay away from games like that and games where there are key injuries.
Moving forward, the games tonight:
PHI@NJ / Line: 188
Range: 189-197
Prediction: 192 / Over
TOR@ATL / Line: 201.5
Range: 195-203
Prediction: 198 / Under
IND@CLE / Line: 202
Range: 194-202
Prediction: 197 / Under
MIL@PHO / Line: 199
Range: 194-203
Prediction: 197 / Under
So... picking up where we left off
60-50 YTD
Comment
Buried_PIRATE
SBR Wise Guy
12-28-10
546
#187
3-1 on my return... will update totals later tonight.
No plays tonight but I will have some tomorrow
Comment
Buried_PIRATE
SBR Wise Guy
12-28-10
546
#188
So we rocked a 3-1 return 63-51 YTD
Plays for tonight:
CHI@GSW / Line: 204
Model: 197 / Under
LAL/NO / Line: 191
Model: 194 / Over
BOL on your plays guys
Comment
Buried_PIRATE
SBR Wise Guy
12-28-10
546
#189
2-0 tonight baby! make love to your loved ones!!
65-51 f. yes
5-1 since my triumphant return fade if you dare
Comment
Buried_PIRATE
SBR Wise Guy
12-28-10
546
#190
The lines and the model are pretty close today...
IND/NJN / Line: 195.5
Model: 194
ORL@BOS / Line: 192
Model: 195
LAC@MIA / Line: 203
Model: 201
Use the info it helps... for my record I am playing the over on ORL@BOS... others are no plays .. BOL
65-51
Comment
ready-set-tilt
SBR Rookie
01-20-11
35
#191
He's back! I am sorry for ever doubting you
Comment
Buried_PIRATE
SBR Wise Guy
12-28-10
546
#192
Originally posted by ready-set-tilt
He's back! I am sorry for ever doubting you
Yessir. It's empire building time
Comment
Vinotinto
SBR Rookie
08-21-10
46
#193
Originally posted by Buried_PIRATE
The lines and the model are pretty close today...
IND/NJN / Line: 195.5 Model: 194
ORL@BOS / Line: 192
Model: 195
LAC@MIA / Line: 203 Model: 201
Use the info it helps... for my record I am playing the over on ORL@BOS... others are no plays .. BOL
65-51
I know you said you'll only play ORL@BOS but so far the other two games were effective... IND 105-86 NJ | LAC 79-97 MIA Well done..
Do you mind sharing some details from your model so we can work on it and help you improve it?
Kind regars BOL
Comment
Buried_PIRATE
SBR Wise Guy
12-28-10
546
#194
Model goes 0-1, the leans were good! Oh well. Happens
65-52 YTD
----------------------
Sure thing. Right now I use a regression approach to come up with a total score for each team. The model is based off of team efficiency.
The model takes into account the teams Offensive and Defensive efficiency for their last 5 games (2 components) and then the teams home/away efficiency (depending on if they are home and then away).
I currently do NOT take into account back to back games (and try to avoid predicting them). Injuries are also a problem.
I get my data daily from NBAstuffer.com... my model is in excel and I wrote a couple macros so I just need to copy and paste the latest data in to my spreadsheet and I'm good to go. A lot more effective than how I initially started.
If you have any tips / see some flaws / other factors to consider definitely let me know. I know there are definitely areas to improve and models to back test -- the key is putting in the time to find the sweet spot.
Comment
Buried_PIRATE
SBR Wise Guy
12-28-10
546
#195
CHI@POR / Line: 182.5
Model: 189 /O
LAL@MEM / Line: 195
Model: 197 /O
CLE@DAL / Line: 204
Model: 197 /U
BOL on your plays... 65-52 ytd
Comment
Buried_PIRATE
SBR Wise Guy
12-28-10
546
#196
2-1 last night... goes to 67-53
BOL on your plays boys
Stay frosty
Comment
Buried_PIRATE
SBR Wise Guy
12-28-10
546
#197
67-53 YTD...
Plays tonight
SA@DET / Line: 188
Model: 198 / Over
MEM@OKC / Line: 205.5
Model: 199 / Under
IND@MIA / Line: 200
Model: 197 / Under
Comment
Buried_PIRATE
SBR Wise Guy
12-28-10
546
#198
So tilted
Lose by .5 pt in OT! Tilted. I am so not frosty.
1-2
68-54
*grumble*
worst loss since Durant gave the coach the ball
Comment
Buried_PIRATE
SBR Wise Guy
12-28-10
546
#199
Back on the block again... 68-54 YTD
MIL@WAS / Line: 185.5
Model: 193 / Over
CHI@UTA / Line: 194.5
Model: 192 / Under
SA@TOR / Line: 200.5
Model: 203 / Over
Comment
Buried_PIRATE
SBR Wise Guy
12-28-10
546
#200
2-1, missed the perfect 3-0 by 1/2 a point
70-55 on the year
stay frosty boys.
Comment
Buried_PIRATE
SBR Wise Guy
12-28-10
546
#201
I just wanted to post that I like to crush it guys. Idk you about you, but lately I been crushing.
10-6 since I came back (not bad considering IMO we got unlucky) (70-55 ytd)
Either way no plays tonight and this weekend I am heading to AC but I still might be down to try to get some plays up.
Stay frosty
Comment
WHATaTEASE
SBR High Roller
02-07-11
157
#202
Post asap! BoL all...
Comment
BetterBizness
SBR Hall of Famer
05-20-06
5737
#203
like a Wendy's Frostie?
Comment
Buried_PIRATE
SBR Wise Guy
12-28-10
546
#204
Originally posted by BetterBizness
like a Wendy's Frostie?
Do you know of another kid of frosty son? Yessir nothing but Wendy for me.
Its from Call of Duty...i hope the Wendy's frosty line was a joke
Comment
Buried_PIRATE
SBR Wise Guy
12-28-10
546
#206
K. Let's crush it tonight boys.
MIA@DET / Line: 191
Model: 195 / Over
MIL@MEM / Line: 184
Model: 189 / Over
70-55. BOL ON UR PLAYS.
Stay frosty
Comment
sickpicks
SBR Rookie
01-17-11
42
#207
Originally posted by Buried_PIRATE
MIA@DET / Line: 191
Model: 195 / Over
glad to cu on the same side
i like MIL@MEM under. GL pirate
Comment
flyer1179
SBR High Roller
12-11-10
136
#208
Originally posted by Buried_PIRATE
MIL@MEM / Line: 195
Model: 189 / Under
Think you have a typo there, line is 184 or less everywhere I look. Just an FYI.
Comment
Buried_PIRATE
SBR Wise Guy
12-28-10
546
#209
Originally posted by flyer1179
Think you have a typo there, line is 184 or less everywhere I look. Just an FYI.
Sorry guys. Should have been an over play. The line was also 184. Thanks for bringing it to my attention.
I had done the modeling last night and transferred it over wrong. Thank you.
Comment
Buried_PIRATE
SBR Wise Guy
12-28-10
546
#210
Originally posted by sickpicks
glad to cu on the same side
i like MIL@MEM under. GL pirate
Good luck man! MIL@MEM definitely looks like an under, but I am getting a good read from the model. In that range it has usually been reliable... either way BOL